How bad could availability for 1BRs at VGF get, really? Trying to decide BLT or VGF2 direct

[Paul Stupin]

1BR VGF is extremely high point cost, that's the only reason it lasts as long as it does. We just don't know if VGF2 owners are trying to get bang for buck or just trying to get a door between them and the kids. The VGF 1BR is often available long after 7 months. I don't see how 2M new points will matters against the barrage of all the DVC system points.

If you're trying to book for a larger party, I think there's a good argument for the VGF2 rooms. That's where I will be with grandma. I don't want to put her on a sleeper sofa in a 1BR, connecting rooms is perfect for us.

There's also booking a 2BR for family who flake on you last minute. Only takes that happening once to really see the value of two rooms. VGF will be easier to book the studios, but that's balanced by high point cost and probably difficult bookings for larger rooms.

I don't care for BLT's theme, I don't care for the pool, and I find the studios too small. That's why I bought VGF. But I can't deny it is the better mathematical choice. The point chart will never be matched on the monorail.

I think you’re exactly right. We love the VGF one bedrooms and don’t care for BLT for the same reasons as you. Considering their monumentally high point cost, especially for the lake view, I personally don’t think there will be an 11 month issue.

 

[Her Dotness]

Yeah, I really don't see how the larger units won't get more difficult with 2 million points getting added. That's a lot more people with booking advantage and, even if not every time, from time to time they will want 1BR and up. There will defintely be an impact...

I'm going to qualify your "will definitely be an impact" and speculate there may be impact primarily from current owners who buy more points to stay up from the DxSt.

Here's why--
Even though the RStus mostly seem like a ripoff to us current DVCers, I think they might be immensely appealing to some of us and quite a lot to new VGF owners.

Check the points, guys.

Two RStus will cost fewer points than a 1br for a family of 4-5 feeling cramped in the current DxSt. So what the DxStu has the doubled bathroom. Its shower-sink-toilet and tub-sink combos don't compare that well to two full bathrooms (2 toilets, not 1) that family will have in two RStus.

Think about the implications if you've a family of 4 with 2 teen kids--their own bathroom and a queen bed each. Granted, you'd likely not want double studios with younger kids unless the parents didn't mind splitting up to save on points, but I can nevertheless see some families really going for two studios for how many fewer points they cost than a 1br.

When double RStus could sleep as many as 10 people, it's lots easier to invite grandparents/friends. Somewhat fewer points than a 2br. More bodies housed could easily count for more than the full kitchen and washer/dryer with points cost so much less.

This factor could make those new studios somewhat more popular than we think and not have nearly as much impact as we fear on 1br availability.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

The availability of 1 and 2 bedrooms could get really bad. You are introducing new points that create a great imbalance ( more studios rooms than before) and just because people buy points does not mean they want to stay in studios.

 

[Her Dotness]

You are introducing new points that create a great imbalance ( more studios rooms than before) and just because people buy points does not mean they want to stay in studios.

Yes, I understand that. I agree that it remains to be seen how great the impact will be on the 1+brs by those "pointing upward" because they prefer the 1+brs.

I outlined some factors that I think might reduce the appeal of the multi-brs for families of 5 plus infant or who want to bring relatives/friends--and at 2023 points, could get two RStus for a bit less than what a week in a 1br is.

That this hypothetical 5-plus-baby will be unable in a few years to book a 1br at all could encourage booking two of the resort studios which have more floor space than the current studios to add to the appeal. They can keep staying in two studios until the older kids leave home and then drop back to the 1br perhaps.

As Rose Gold said previously for self and grandma, two resort studios will be preferable to the 1br for some wanting more comfortable beds. Others don't want to eat in-room and won't want the full kitchen. If space is the aim, the RStu has more of that, about 100 sq. ft. more than the existing VGF studios.

What will tell the tale is how long it takes until Disney jacks up the points for the 1br. That could well happen to drive demand into the studios, IMO. Especially for people adding points specifically to move up to the 1br.

 

[RoseGold]

VGF 1BR has decent availability at 5-6 months right now, with all the Covid points floating around. I don’t see how 1.8M points matters much in this discussion.

I do think 1.8M points matters in peak times, but that’s true for all the room categories, not just the larger ones.

The 2BR is what I think will be interesting. If VGF1 studios linger around for a minute, there are more 2BR lockoffs.

 

[Sir Pellinore]

1BR VGF is extremely high point cost, that's the only reason it lasts as long as it does. We just don't know if VGF2 owners are trying to get bang for buck or just trying to get a door between them and the kids. The VGF 1BR is often available long after 7 months. I don't see how 2M new points will matters against the barrage of all the DVC system points.

Okay, this makes me feel better about it then.

I don't care for BLT's theme, I don't care for the pool, and I find the studios too small. That's why I bought VGF. But I can't deny it is the better mathematical choice. The point chart will never be matched on the monorail.

As I mention in my post, we like BLT, we really like CR, we're not pool people, and we stay in 1BRs so the studio size doesn't really matter. But we did stay in one BLT studio once and it was fine.

BLT is no slouch and a solid property virtually every front (better allocation of rooms, point chart, extra bathroom, shorter MK walk), and the incentives right now are excellent. If I were in your position, I would be very tempted to go that direction. Good luck!

I think this is what we're doing, thanks! Talked it over last night--if we like two things and can't decide between them, we'll should go with the one that makes more mathematical sense. We'll be quite happy and if we ever want to change it up and @RoseGold is right about availability, we can switch to VGF 1BR at 7 months. But we'll be happy either way. Going to wait until Monday or Tuesday to sign anything so the 10 days go into early March, but this is exciting!

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Okay, this makes me feel better about it then.

As I mention in my post, we like BLT, we really like CR, we're not pool people, and we stay in 1BRs so the studio size doesn't really matter. But we did stay in one BLT studio once and it was fine.

I think this is what we're doing, thanks! Talked it over last night--if we like two things and can't decide between them, we'll should go with the one that makes more mathematical sense. We'll be quite happy and if we ever want to change it up and @RoseGold is right about availability, we can switch to VGF 1BR at 7 months. But we'll be happy either way. Going to wait until Monday or Tuesday to sign anything so the 10 days go into early March, but this is exciting!

VGF sales open March 3 to existing members.

 

[hhisc16]

 

[KTownRaider]

Just saw the DVC email announcing sales start on 3/3. Interesting that they chose to highlight concept art of a 1 & 2BR living room over the new resort studios that will make-up over half of the resort when complete...

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Just saw the DVC email announcing sales start on 3/3. Interesting that they chose to highlight concept art of a 1 & 2BR living room over the new resort studios that will make-up over half of the resort when complete...

View attachment 648179

That's bonkers! They're building 200 studios and yet showing us the larger villas that will be a small minority of available rooms lol

Having said that, I think it looks nice

 

[bobbiwoz]

That's bonkers! They're building 200 studios and yet showing us the larger villas that will be a small minority of available rooms lol

Having said that, I think it looks nice

I agree, that’s bonkers.

 

[Her Dotness]

They're building 200 studios

Not really. They're actually just prettying up regular hotel rooms, giving them a different label and calling them DVC.

They don't have the same features as the current studios at all.

showing us the larger villas that will be a small minority of available rooms

It's all about fantasy. Even where promoting DVC is concerned.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

Not really. They're actually just prettying up regular hotel rooms, giving them a different label and calling them DVC.

Good point!

 

[Brian Noble]

Any thoughts are much appreciated.

I don't think anyone knows for sure. It is not immediately obvious to me that there will be "too many" studios at VGF1+2.

Ideally, the demand for room sizes would equal the fraction of room size allocations. So, for example, imagine that for a given resort's room configurations and point charts, 50% of that resort's owners preferred studios, 30% preferred 2BRs, and 20% preferred 1BRs. If 50% of the rooms were studios, 30% were 2BRs, and 20% were 1BRs, then supply and demand would be perfectly aligned, and all rooms would book at the same rates. If some room type were more popular than its supply, it would book faster than the other room types.

So far, in every FL DVC resort ever built, the demand for studios is higher than the supply of studios, because the studios always book full before any other room type. That's true of VGF, which ignoring Grand Villas currently has a mix in practice of: 1/3 studios, 1/3 1BRs, and 1/3 2BRs. But, the demand for studios is highest, followed by 2BRs, and 1BRs are pulling up the rear. (The studios and 1BRs are all two sides of a lockoff, but the studios all book much earlier than the 2BRs, so I assume anything that can be booked as a studio is booked as a studio.)

The New VGF will have a much different mix. It will range from 68-72% studios, 0-14% 1BRs, and 32%-14% 2BRs, depending on how many of the lockoffs are booked as 2BRs (first # in range) vs. separately (2nd #).

So, the big question is: how many current and future GFV owners would prefer a studio in the given point charts? If it is much less than about 70%, then studios will go begging while the larger units are booked up solid.

Ignoring 3BR units and excepting the Poly (the remainder is 100% studios), AKV has the largest possible fraction of studios at about 43%. But, those book the fastest, so the organic demand for studios in AKV's point chart is higher than 43%. Stands to reason that GFV is probably comparable (and so also higher).

How much higher? Enough to get to 70%? Good questions.

I will say that I didn't get into timesharing to stay in glorified hotel rooms. And that seems to be true for most other timeshare owners on e.g. TUG. But DVC seems to be a different breed for some reason.

 

[Matty B13]

All I know is that I'm planning on trying to get 2 bedroom standard view, but will have enough points for a lake view if needed. We don't go during the Christmas Season so I hope we will be okay getting at least a lake view, if not we would probably sell all our VGF points.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Seeing more and more posts elsewhere like this one on Facebook:

I don’t know if most people will be booking resort studios. Looking for input from others since we personally are clearly not the target market for the new studios. I’m wondering if a substantial number of people like us will buy the resort studios for the 11 month advantage, but plan to book 1 and 2 bedrooms like we would be.

 

[RoseGold]

DVC is nowhere close to a balanced room mix. Studios are the first to book at every resort including VGF. This seems like a lot of fretting over 1.8M points of studios, which the system should easily be able to absorb and might balance some demand out.

If someone on Facebook wants to book a 1BR at VGF, they can do it now with their SAP. They don't have to buy into a product they don't like to do it.

 

[Sir Pellinore]

I don't think anyone knows for sure. It is not immediately obvious to me that there will be "too many" studios at VGF1+2.

Ideally, the demand for room sizes would equal the fraction of room size allocations. So, for example, imagine that for a given resort's room configurations and point charts, 50% of that resort's owners preferred studios, 30% preferred 2BRs, and 20% preferred 1BRs. If 50% of the rooms were studios, 30% were 2BRs, and 20% were 1BRs, then supply and demand would be perfectly aligned, and all rooms would book at the same rates. If some room type were more popular than its supply, it would book faster than the other room types.

So far, in every FL DVC resort ever built, the demand for studios is higher than the supply of studios, because the studios always book full before any other room type. That's true of VGF, which ignoring Grand Villas currently has a mix in practice of: 1/3 studios, 1/3 1BRs, and 1/3 2BRs. But, the demand for studios is highest, followed by 2BRs, and 1BRs are pulling up the rear. (The studios and 1BRs are all two sides of a lockoff, but the studios all book much earlier than the 2BRs, so I assume anything that can be booked as a studio is booked as a studio.)

The New VGF will have a much different mix. It will range from 68-72% studios, 0-14% 1BRs, and 32%-14% 2BRs, depending on how many of the lockoffs are booked as 2BRs (first # in range) vs. separately (2nd #).

So, the big question is: how many current and future GFV owners would prefer a studio in the given point charts? If it is much less than about 70%, then studios will go begging while the larger units are booked up solid.

Ignoring 3BR units and excepting the Poly (the remainder is 100% studios), AKV has the largest possible fraction of studios at about 43%. But, those book the fastest, so the organic demand for studios in AKV's point chart is higher than 43%. Stands to reason that GFV is probably comparable (and so also higher).

How much higher? Enough to get to 70%? Good questions.

I will say that I didn't get into timesharing to stay in glorified hotel rooms. And that seems to be true for most other timeshare owners on e.g. TUG. But DVC seems to be a different breed for some reason.

I very much appreciate your perspective. I'm convinced, we really don't know yet how the demand for different room types lines up. I hope closer to 70%!
At the least, Disney is adding more of the coveted studios, I think that's a positive overall. But like you, I didn't get into timesharing to stay in glorified hotel rooms.

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I will say that I didn't get into timesharing to stay in glorified hotel rooms. And that seems to be true for most other timeshare owners on e.g. TUG. But DVC seems to be a different breed for some reason.

Same here. I know the studios are a better value, but we like the extra space for family activities. We like playing board games at the villa, cooking together, having our own laundry machines, etc.
But someone going from a hotel room to a DVC glorified hotel room will be saving a lot in the long run, so that makes sense, especially if they don't spend much time int he villa at all.

 

[Sandisw]

DVC is nowhere close to a balanced room mix. Studios are the first to book at every resort including VGF. This seems like a lot of fretting over 1.8M points of studios, which the system should easily be able to absorb and might balance some demand out.

If someone on Facebook wants to book a 1BR at VGF, they can do it now with their SAP. They don't have to buy into a product they don't like to do it.

It depends on travel times. I have not always been able to get a 1 bedroom at VGF with my SSR points. And I normally am only looking for a few nights. So, its not a given if you want to travel during the high demand times of mid September to mid January..

I think you need to own VGF if you want to be there during those times.