Great News! Moderna says its Covid19 vaccine is 94.5 % effective!

[tidefan]

On another note, do you all think we'll have some equivalent of what they call a "blue form" here in Alabama? The "blue form" is what kids have to show schools to show their vaccinations are up-to-date. I'm pretty sure that when travel does start back up, at some point we might have to show proof of vaccination...

 

[DisneyMusicMan]

On another note, do you all think we'll have some equivalent of what they call a "blue form" here in Alabama? The "blue form" is what kids have to show schools to show their vaccinations are up-to-date. I'm pretty sure that when travel does start back up, at some point we might have to show proof of vaccination...

I’m guessing some sort of proof will be required for some time, after enough time had gone by to allow for everyone to be vaccinated.

 

[braysmommy]

I work in healthcare/hospital. YOU are welcome to my dose. Too quick, too many unknowns. All my coworkers are not excited about being guinea pigs.

Thoughts on if you opt out? Around here if you opt out of flu vaccine hospital staff has to wear a mask entire flu season. I wonder what will happen if staff opt out of Covid vaccine? I am not saying I'd be lining up first just interested in your thoughts.

 

[sabrecmc]

I would personally love it if DCL required proof of vaccination to cruise for at least 2021, but I understand others feel differently. I don't really see how they safely do it otherwise. We have a July 2021 cruise booked because I'm an optimist, but I don't want to cruise without a kids club and if I have to sit around in a mask the whole time. I'll just wait, if that's the case. At least we know there is a light at the end of this tunnel, and ultimately, safety for crew and guests is the most important thing, not whether and when I get to cruise.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

On another note, do you all think we'll have some equivalent of what they call a "blue form" here in Alabama? The "blue form" is what kids have to show schools to show their vaccinations are up-to-date. I'm pretty sure that when travel does start back up, at some point we might have to show proof of vaccination...

There's always this (been in use for years):

 

[DCLPrincess]

They say it's 94% effective but that's living in a world of masks and social distancing. My concern is how effective will it be in real world conditions.

 

[Intr3pid]

They say it's 94% effective but that's living in a world of masks and social distancing. My concern is how effective will it be in real world conditions.

The placebo method takes care of those factors.

 

[spiders]

I would personally love it if DCL required proof of vaccination to cruise for at least 2021, but I understand others feel differently. I don't really see how they safely do it otherwise. We have a July 2021 cruise booked because I'm an optimist, but I don't want to cruise without a kids club and if I have to sit around in a mask the whole time. I'll just wait, if that's the case. At least we know there is a light at the end of this tunnel, and ultimately, safety for crew and guests is the most important thing, not whether and when I get to cruise.

We are booked next November. I too hope and also think that a negative test and proof of vaccination will be required.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The placebo method takes care of those factors.

Not really, because in theory your placebo group is also minimizing their exposure via masks and social distancing.

 

[Intr3pid]

Not really, because in theory your placebo group is also minimizing their exposure via masks and social distancing.

And that's expected. Both groups have exposure to the same extraneous factors (masks/social distancing included), with the only difference being the drug. You can say fewer people are getting naturally exposed to the virus with masks/social distancing - but within those still getting exposed, the drug seems to be working.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

And that's expected. Both groups have exposure to the same extraneous factors (masks/social distancing included), with the only difference being the drug. You can say fewer people are getting naturally exposed to the virus with masks/social distancing - but within those still getting exposed, the drug seems to be working.

I think the uncontrollable variables are at what dilution, as well as how many of the test group members have significant exposure.

 

[Intr3pid]

I think the uncontrollable variables are at what dilution, as well as how many of the test group members have significant exposure.

No, those are easy to control by providing the same set of instructions to all participants. You ask them all, for instance, to wear masks and exercise social distancing. Sure, there will be non-compliance, but it will be random and addressed with the use of a large sample size.

 

[AquaDame]

I think the uncontrollable variables are at what dilution, as well as how many of the test group members have significant exposure.

I think thats why they put particular emphasis on the people who are symptomatic - of the 95 who were, 5 had the vaccine (and the 11 that were severely sick were all in the placebo group).

 

[Heather07438]

Of the 96 participants who were first to catch covid and unblinded, 94.5% had gotten the placebo jab. It was unexpectedly fantastic. That efficacy isnt to do with exposure or lack there of. Seeing 2 different companies have similar phase 3 results with the same type of technology gives even more confidence.
One thing i wonder about is if there could be any long term effect from our own manufacture of the spike protein? Just dont know enough myself to tell if this is a valid concern or not.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

No, those are easy to control by providing the same set of instructions to all participants. You ask them all, for instance, to wear masks and exercise social distancing. Sure, there will be non-compliance, but it will be random and addressed with the use of a large sample size.

But even if you have good compliance, that does not model the future state where people assume a vaccine creates safety and everyone is back in each other's faces breathing again.

We know that if you have the virus with or without symptoms, it can be spread via droplet. If you are masked and distant, someone exposed to you gets a much lighter viral load of exposure, and it does take a certain volume for the virus to successfully spread. So someone with the vaccine exposed in a masked and distant scenario may be protected, but is it protection from a low viral load? Would it hold up to family Christmas with a coughing contagious uncle?

 

[DCLPrincess]

The placebo method takes care of those factors.

The people who got the placebo are still social distancing and wearing masks. 90 people out of the 15000 who got the placebo got covid. Without masks and social distancing I'd imagine it would be higher.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

But the point of clinical testing is not needing to imagine.

 

[Intr3pid]

But even if you have good compliance, that does not model the future state where people assume a vaccine creates safety and everyone is back in each other's faces breathing again.

We know that if you have the virus with or without symptoms, it can be spread via droplet. If you are masked and distant, someone exposed to you gets a much lighter viral load of exposure, and it does take a certain volume for the virus to successfully spread. So someone with the vaccine exposed in a masked and distant scenario may be protected, but is it protection from a low viral load? Would it hold up to family Christmas with a coughing contagious uncle?

The people who got the placebo are still social distancing and wearing masks. 90 people out of the 15000 who got the placebo got covid. Without masks and social distancing I'd imagine it would be higher.

This is not how the placebo method works.

Let's say people were not social distancing and were without masks - and, thus, were exposed to a potentially higher virus load. Your placebo group would then end up with 180 infections and the treatment group with 10 infections. (Maybe - it's a prediction based on a sample.) Your conclusion would not change unless it can be demonstrated that those in one group somehow got a higher exposure.

Things to keep in mind:

1 There is no scientific study proving that someone wearing a mask (and distancing socially) would get a virus that is somehow different from the virus in others.
2. The participants in the study are being tested using PCR tests at multiple points in time. While a lower exposure could result in less severe symptoms, the PCR tests would still catch the virus with a high accuracy as long as it was transmitted.
3. The mask mandates and social distancing measures will likely be removed only when the virus transmission rates are already low.

 

[Lumpy1106]

The question now is who gets it first? Would love to see teachers get it right after health care workers - that gets the kids back in school (fingers crossed). I tried and was unable to get on a trial group - just too low risk (working at home). That puts me at the back of the line to get the vaccine but I am fine with that, JUST GET MY KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL!

FWIW though - happy to be a guinea pig - if you don't want the vaccine, I'll take it in a heartbeat.

 

[DCLMP]

Thoughts on if you opt out? Around here if you opt out of flu vaccine hospital staff has to wear a mask entire flu season. I wonder what will happen if staff opt out of Covid vaccine? I am not saying I'd be lining up first just interested in your thoughts.

Probably the same thing...wear a mask.