For the weather pros out there - Tropical Storm Danny?

[ucfknight]

I'm mostly worried about getting there. I'll be coming from CT next Friday, and I feel like if it does make landfall, that's the day it will be! I'm worried about my flight being cancelled.

IF, and that's a BIG if at this point, Erika makes landfall in Florida it would likely be this Sunday night through Monday. Most of the models then have the storm hooking North and then East after that to head out to sea. The computers models are not in good agreement on the path of this storm mainly due to the widely ranging intensity forecasts they're making. Some models have the storm falling apart while others make it a 100 MPH storm.

 

[Nermel9]

IF, and that's a BIG if at this point, Erika makes landfall in Florida it would likely be this Sunday night through Monday. Most of the models then have the storm hooking North and then East after that to head out to sea. The computers models are not in good agreement on the path of this storm mainly due to the widely ranging intensity forecasts they're making. Some models have the storm falling apart while others make it a 100 MPH storm.

Well I'm hoping it just breaks up and goes out to sea and no one is affected.

 

[Pemeberly]

For my own sanity I might just stop checking the weather until the day before our flight! So close - heading down from NYC next Thursday!

 

[Eeyore's My Favorite]

IF, and that's a BIG if at this point, Erika makes landfall in Florida it would likely be this Sunday night through Monday. Most of the models then have the storm hooking North and then East after that to head out to sea. The computers models are not in good agreement on the path of this storm mainly due to the widely ranging intensity forecasts they're making. Some models have the storm falling apart while others make it a 100 MPH storm.

I'm not liking this "cone" that the local forecasters are using. I'm sitting over here on the East Coast of Florida with a shop on the beach & a WDW vacation planned for the 31st & 1st for our 30th wedding anniversary. I'm hoping that front that WESH was talking about earlier might push her out away from Florida. I've lived here almost 60 years & been through all the big ones starting with Donna - but I really want to go see Mickey!! So I'm thinking positive thoughts for all of us with vacations scheduled.

 

[codimouse]

My daughter and hubby are driving from NC to WDW Friday. Approximately a 9 hour drive.
I hope it is good driving weather.

 

[andiraye]

How often does the media overplay the likelihood of a storm turning into a hurricane is Florida? I'm from NYC so I'm not used to watching Florida weather and I'm not sure how much of any of this is media hype (versus very likely threat). Basically I'm trying my to decide whether to ignore this whole thing or be worried!

 

[ucfknight]

How often does the media overplay the likelihood of a storm turning into a hurricane is Florida? I'm from NYC so I'm not used to watching Florida weather and I'm not sure how much of any of this is media hype (versus very likely threat). Basically I'm trying my to decide whether to ignore this whole thing or be worried!

The media always overplays it. Mainly because storm coverage always gets them a nice ratings boost. Hurricanes tracks 5 days out are hard to predict in general, and this particular storm is even harder to predict than most. I certainly wouldn't be worried yet, but still keep an eye on it. As the NHC said in their 5am discussion:

Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.

The average miss is 240 miles. So even if a storm were predicted to be directly over Orlando in 5 days, the average error could take it to Key West or Savannah, GA. And that's the average which includes many storms which are much easier to predict than this one. So for every couple they nail in the 5 day forecast, that means they might be off by 500 miles for another one.

 

[anniemae]

I hope it weakens and if it does make landfall in FL it's just a rainy day or two.

 

[cart-mom]

All we can do is wait. Hard as it might be, there is nothing we can do about the weather or the people or computers that try to predict the outcome. I hope and pray that the jet stream is strong enough to push it out to see and nobody really gets hit with high winds or tons of rain. These are the chances we take traveling in August on the East Coast. We're leaving tomorrow morning and I will try my best to post updates as often as I can.
Good luck to us all.

 

[codimouse]

All we can do is wait. Hard as it might be, there is nothing we can do about the weather or the people or computers that try to predict the outcome. I hope and pray that the jet stream is strong enough to push it out to see and nobody really gets hit with high winds or tons of rain. These are the chances we take traveling in August on the East Coast. We're leaving tomorrow morning and I will try my best to post updates as often as I can.
Good luck to us all.

Looking forward to your updates. My DD and SIL will be traveling by themselves for the 1st time ever to WDW.
They are veterans to the parks but they are young and recently married and I am a worrier. They check out on Tuesday the 1st so he can come home to Tx to say goodbyes before deploying. And they are driving.

 

[tbssenterprises]

This rots. I will be there for this storm....my DD is flying into MCO on Monday (she works on Sunday and can't switch flights)...and my home is in the proposed path too. Funny, we were on vacation at WDW back when Sandy hit our home in the north east (we've moved since)...and we had a ton of damage to the property. Ugh...

 

[cart-mom]

Ok. Checked in this morning. Got onto dme around 9:30 and made it to wl around 10:45ish. Our room was ready so we dropped off our carry on stuff then headed for the boat . Took the contemporary boat bc the mk boat was packed then took the monorail to the poly and we were the last ones seated for breakfast around 11:20. Sky's were dark and rain started when we finished around noon and it poured. It really really poured. Finally around 2:30 - 3:00 it stopped. It's humid but not too bad. Still worried about Erika, though. I don't like that they can't predict where it's going or how bad is going to be.

 

[Jadyreen1282]

It's not too late to call garden Grocer and get a couple of cases of beer. Awesome for watching a downpour.

 

[andiraye]

http://www.baynews9.com/content/new...les/bn9/2015/8/26/tropical_storm_erika_0.html

This is an article with a more favorable analysis. Thought I would share!

 

[SeilerBird]

Danny is dead. Please use one of the threads about Erika to post news about Erika.