For the weather pros out there - Tropical Storm Danny?

[OKW Lover]

What is the best local weather to follow?

There is no "best local weather". They are all just as wrong as the national forecasts.

 

[DisMom829]

Do you think this will result in more rainstorms (more than the norm) next week?
Are there any predictions of when it would impact Orlando weather? I am trying to plan our waterpark day & wanted to have a general sense if it would affect the beginning or end of the week.

I'm not sure. I'm just posting the weather updates I get at work. I would advice you to watch or check the national hurricane center's website.
The site I have been quoting is a service that my company pays for to monitor the potential for severe weather for our plant site.

 

[River Country]

Having experienced Hurricane Irene then Hurricane Sandy here in NJ I am no expert but it was one of the more interesting/frightening events I have lived through. I have friends that lost all or close to everything...but if I had to choose wear to ride out a hurricane I would pick WDW.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Having experienced Hurricane Irene then Hurricane Sandy here in NJ I am no expert but it was one of the more interesting/frightening events I have lived through. I have friends that lost all or close to everything...but if I had to choose wear to ride out a hurricane I would pick WDW.

We were in WDW for Sandy (we are from NJ). It was weird watching it on TV while being in la-la land down in Orlando. But yeah, probably better than being there. We lost a tree and power for a while.

 

[mousefan73]

I'm not sure. I'm just posting the weather updates I get at work. I would advice you to watch or check the national hurricane center's website.
The site I have been quoting is a service that my company pays for to monitor the potential for severe weather for our plant site.

thanks DisMom829.. between your info and NHC's website I feel updated. We fly in next thurs... internationally.. one flight a day... one nite at AOA then Cape Coral and back to WDW for a week. I am not worrying too much about what happens when we are there. I just want our flight to get in, relativiy on time.
We have usually had bad luck with on-times in MCO.. seems a storm hangs in the air each time. One time we got diverted first to Miami...
I just hope storm doesnt cause any travel delays/ cancellations. We just want to get there.

 

[Polyonmymind]

#GoAwayDanny

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

 

[dcraythorn]

This was just posted:

MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Danny has strengthened into a Category 3 storm as it moves across the Atlantic far from land.
The hurricane's maximum sustained winds Friday had increased to near 115 mph (185 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the hurricane is not expected to intensify, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin later Friday.
The hurricane is centered about 900 miles (1448 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands.
Hurricane Danny doesn't currently pose a threat to land but the hurricane center says those in the Leeward Islands should monitor its progress.

 

[MINNIEANN MOUSE]

I'm not a meteorologist, but this is reassuring for the time being. Thanks for the info!

 

[Grmnshplvr]

we'll be there Wednesday 8/26 - 9/02. Hoping we don't get more rain than we usually get during our August trips

 

[Seahunt]

What is the best local weather to follow? If you have it, can you provide a link?

Of course this could change, but right now not concerned at all here.

As a local, and even though I follow all the local stations, I also like to check out Levi at "Tropical Tidbits". I'm thinking this is probably a good site for the tourists coming in too, who are hearing rumblings about a hurricane, mainly because he takes the time to really explain in detail what is happening:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

(Click on the red "play" symbol in the center and his info will show the storm being watched, where it is and where the models show it's going, what is expected to happen as far as strengthening, etc. It's updated frequently too.)

Also just as a FYI - Danny has a "sister" who is just coming off the African coast right now that you might be hearing about soon (depending on if it develops or not). So be prepared:

A tropical wave that has emerged off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become marginally favorable for some
development of this system over the weekend and into early next week
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

As of right this minute, most forecasters talking about that one are saying it will probably go "fish", or turn back out to sea, well from us - so if/when you do hear of it don't panic!

 

[JessicaW1234]

Of course this could change, but right now not concerned at all here.

As a local, and even though I follow all the local stations, I also like to check out Levi at "Tropical Tidbits". I'm thinking this is probably a good site for the tourists coming in too, who are hearing rumblings about a hurricane, mainly because he takes the time to really explain in detail what is happening:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

(Click on the red "play" symbol in the center and his info will show the storm being watched, where it is and where the models show it's going, what is expected to happen as far as strengthening, etc. It's updated frequently too.)

Also just as a FYI - Danny has a "sister" who is just coming off the African coast right now that you might be hearing about soon (depending on if it develops or not). So be prepared:

A tropical wave that has emerged off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to become marginally favorable for some
development of this system over the weekend and into early next week
while the wave moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

As of right this minute, most forecasters talking about that one are saying it will probably go "fish", or turn back out to sea, well from us - so if/when you do hear of it don't panic!

Thank you, Seahunt. This was very helpful!

 

[DisMom829]

I would suggest you pay attention to Erika. This is the latest update I've received at work.

Our Forecast
Tropical Storm Erika has not changed much during the past 6 hours in terms of its current organization. Conditions are favorable for gradual strengthening over the next 36 hours or so. Conditions are likely to be less favorable as Erika passes just north of Puerto Rico Thursday and Friday. However, once Erika moves into the Bahamas, upper-level winds should become a little more conducive for some potential strengthening.

Model guidance has come into fairly nice agreement for the track forecast through the entire 7-day period. All models indicate a northward turn in 6 to 7 days. However, some models indicate that this northward turn will occur in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just to the west of Florida. Other models (including the American and European Models) show the northward turn occurring just east of the East Coast of Florida. While our forecast currently indicates that the northward turn will occur just east of Florida, it is certainly plausible that Erika could make landfall in Florida or move into the eastern Gulf before the northward turn occurs.
We increased the intensity forecast in 6 to 7 days to a 70 mph tropical storm. Conditions east of Florida in the Atlantic will be more favorable than in the Gulf. If Erika were to make landfall in Florida or move into the eastern Gulf, it would likely be weaker in 7 days. However, if Erika turns northward to the east of Florida, there is a chance it could be a hurricane in 6 to 7 days. The latest European Model makes Erika a hurricane in 6 to 7 days as it moves northward, to the east of Florida.

 

[stackyallred]

We leave Tuesday morning (a week from today) to fly to WDW. I am slightly concerned about Erika affecting our flight that morning. My other concern is that if it heads into the gulf, it may head to where we live and will be flying out of. I don't want to deal with a storm while there but that is the risk you take when traveling this time of year. I just hope we can GET there and that we aren't distracted with worry about our home while there!

 

[BobC]

Yup Erika looks like it has the chance to affect my departure Tuesday. Lovely.

First Danny was pretty much out of the picture for my arrival, now Erika is in the picture

 

[cart-mom]

We leave Thursday and are coming home on the 3rd (to Philly). One way or another it looks like I will be dealing with Erika whatever form she takes. I'm really hoping and praying that the gulf stream is strong enough to push her out to sea. I know we will just deal with the weather and it's the chance we take being in FL at this time of year, but it would be nice to not have to deal with it on vacation. But then, there's another invest right behind her they are watching so who knows what Mother Nature will bring us.

 

[DemoBri1]

If it does turn into a hurricane and gets to Orlando, Disney is very prepared to deal with the situation. I wouldn't worry too much about it outside of that one of your days may get a bunch of rain. Normally though once a system passes the weather is gorgeous for several days afterwards.

 

[ErinInCT]

Doggonit, it's been such a slow hurricane season I got lulled into a sense of security. Having had my flight cancelled due to Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004 I don't want a repeat!! I think I'm probably ok coming from Detroit to MCO next Tues as long as Erika doesn't come inland. Rain I am ok with!! And we did have beautiful weather as soon as Jeanne left for the rest of the trip.

 

[Nermel9]

I'm mostly worried about getting there. I'll be coming from CT next Friday, and I feel like if it does make landfall, that's the day it will be! I'm worried about my flight being cancelled.

 

[andyman8]

If it does turn into a hurricane and gets to Orlando, Disney is very prepared to deal with the situation. I wouldn't worry too much about it outside of that one of your days may get a bunch of rain. Normally though once a system passes the weather is gorgeous for several days afterwards.

While Disney does do an excellent job at dealing with hurricanes, just to reiterate, I would NOT advise going around outside during a hurricane. Take it from someone who sat inside his house watching at Cat 1 storm several times and has lived in FL all his life. In addition to a monstrous amount of rain, you're talking some incredibly gusty winds (by Sunday morning, this storm is expected to have 80 MPH winds) that can be potentially dangerous. Not saying you can't do it, but personally, I wouldn't. Anyways, Disney organizes plenty of indoor activities in their hotels (like character greetings, special channels, entertainment, games, etc...) to keep guests entertained indoors. It can actually be a lot of fun, like the hotel's all having one giant sleepover! Not saying DemoBri was suggesting going out during a hurricane, just a warning to those who might not have experienced one.

That said, we've gotta wait to later in the week to really get any clear idea as to where Erika will go or how strong she'll be. These forecasts can change quickly, and that's certainly what I'm hoping for. I've been prepping for a big move to Chicago on Labor Day Weekend and was going to do a long weekend this upcoming weekend at WDW, so you can imagine, with all this going on, a hurricane is the last thing I needed!

 

[ucfknight]

Doggonit, it's been such a slow hurricane season I got lulled into a sense of security.

That's the part a lot of people don't really realize. While hurricane season is officially June 1 through November 30, there are 2 things to keep in mind:

1. Hurricanes have happened every month of the year. The 6 month season is just when they are most likely to occur.

...and most importantly:

2. Within the 6 month season, there is a 2 month window from about August 15 through October 15 when hurricanes are far, far more likely than during the rest of the season. The peak of the season is around September 10. This time of year it is more unusual to NOT have a named storm than it is to have one (or more).