I'll have to look at the exact timing and refund amount, but I think I'm going to take the refund. My pass expires in early June and I think it's likely that the parks will open to APs sooner than I feel good about going back. I also have a Universal pass, and I haven't seen anything from them about a refund - just extending the date, so even if I do end up going to a park, I could go to Universal instead.
(As a side note, I feel like I'm emotionally going to be ready for Universal before Disney somehow - I just don't think I'm going to be able to flip straight to the cheeriness of Disney, but Universal has a different feeling to it, where I think it wouldn't feel like quite as much emotional whiplash, if that makes any sense? I just don't think I could forget everything quickly enough to enjoy the "Disney magic" right away, but I could find myself enjoying Universal's thrill rides just for the rides themselves, since there are fewer emotions tied up in them somehow?)
Anyway, I live locally, so travel plans aren't part of my considerations usually, but I do have friends scheduled to visit from out of state in September, and I feel fairly confident that I will be ready to return to Disney by then. If I get the refund and let my pass expire in June and then re-purchase in September (assuming my friends are still able to come), I would lose out on about $70 from the renewal discount, so as long as the refund is more than that, I will still come out ahead. If the closure was long enough that extending would make my current pass last until that September visit, I might have a different set of calculations, but in my case, the extension won't last that long (at least with the way things look right now). So I think it's just going to come down to everyone running the math on each of their options. Some people will be better off with the refund, others with the extension. Just depends on the exact numbers and timing.