February direct sales but also debate about trusts

[CastAStone]

I must say, I know it’s only 9 days of sales data, but I’m SHOCKED how poor the CFW launch went. Yes I know all the reasons. But even still, wow.

Time to hold out for better incentives?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/financial-news/5866-direct-sales-start-slowly-for-fort-wilderness-cabins-in-february-2024

 

[CastAStone]

The TL-DR by the way is that total sales were flat but CFW had less than 8,000 points published by Orange County in February, which accounting for a 3 week lag should still have included the launch week for members.

 

[Genie+]

I’m just waiting for the curveball in all this. CFW did seem high out the gate and I can’t help but wonder if they’re setting up some difference in DVC (DVC 2.0?) where the comparative costs give them an advantage to push sales where they prefer.

 

[intamin]

The TL-DR by the way is that total sales were flat but CFW had less than 8,000 points published by Orange County in February, which accounting for a 3 week lag should still have included the launch week for members.

Woof. I knew it would be bad but that’s abysmal. If CFW continues at this rate it’s going to make Aulani sales seem fast.

 

[Cfabar1]

I would imagine DVC is going to have to assess things if these numbers don’t prove to be a reporting outlier… at 7,000 points a month, it will take years to sell out the existing 30 units they declared, to say nothing of the rest of the resort.

However, the fact that the guides seem to not be talking about the Cabins at all makes me think DVC might not care at all… My guide has called telling me Polynesian is coming down the pipeline a couple of times, but has never called one time to discuss if I’d want the cabins for example… The real plan might be just to rent them out, and if a few buyers go along for the ride, great.

I personally think we are reaching “peak DVC”, and though I doubt they will, after Poly tower is finished, I wish they’d take a break from building all these DVC properties…

 

[Ruttangel]

I must say, I know it’s only 9 days of sales data, but I’m SHOCKED how poor the CFW launch went. Yes I know all the reasons. But even still, wow.

Time to hold out for better incentives?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/financial-news/5866-direct-sales-start-slowly-for-fort-wilderness-cabins-in-february-2024

Are you really shocked, not much buzz among existing members, a niche product with high dues
Most members that are interested will probably take a chance at 7 months

 

[eticketplease]

I would imagine DVC is going to have to assess things if these numbers don’t prove to be a reporting outlier… at 7,000 points a month, it will take years to sell out the existing 30 units they declared, to say nothing of the rest of the resort.

I might be wrong but I thought I read here that they were declaring more into inventory this year too.

Good news for owners who may want to try but not buy.

 

[bryaalre]

Sales to new members didn't start until the end of the month, these sales are all to current members.

It has been discussed that the cabins would have better sales numbers with the people who stay there yearly and those individuals most likely do not own DVC. March and April will be a good barometer if those individuals have converted to DVC but for current members, this is a dreadful number.

 

[eticketplease]

Sales to new members didn't start until the end of the month, these sales are all to current members.

It has been discussed that the cabins would have better sales numbers with the people who stay there yearly and those individuals most likely do not own DVC. March and April will be a good barometer if those individuals have converted to DVC but for current members, this is a dreadful number.

Good point!!!

 

[CastAStone]

Are you really shocked,

I am! I didn’t think they’d be THAT bad.

 

[sndral]

I would imagine DVC is going to have to assess things if these numbers don’t prove to be a reporting outlier… at 7,000 points a month, it will take years to sell out the existing 30 units they declared, to say nothing of the rest of the resort.

However, the fact that the guides seem to not be talking about the Cabins at all makes me think DVC might not care at all… My guide has called telling me Polynesian is coming down the pipeline a couple of times, but has never called one time to discuss if I’d want the cabins for example… The real plan might be just to rent them out, and if a few buyers go along for the ride, great.

I personally think we are reaching “peak DVC”, and though I doubt they will, after Poly tower is finished, I wish they’d take a break from building all these DVC properties…

Sales for the cabins opened 2/1/24 & were limited to members only for much of the month, deeds were first recorded 2/19/2024, total first month sales 7,159. For an idea of just how bad that number is, compare VGF2.
VGF2 sales opened 3/3/2022, were limited to members only for most of the month, the first deeds were recorded 3/15/2022, total first month sales 116,000 https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...-sales-resume-direct-sales-jump-in-march-2022
The cabin’s 7,000 points represent around 1/3 of the month’s sales (9 days of sales,) so 21,000 points per month. I’ll round up to 25,000 points a month. They have 98% of 2780943 points to sell, so at this pace it’ll take around 9 years to sell out.
I guess the cabins are a niche product which hold little appeal for existing DVC members. Additionally, most existing DVC members know Poly2 will be opening sometime this year & maybe they’re waiting for that?
I don’t consider myself to be a representative DVC member, but I’m not buying the cabins no matter what incentives they come up w/ because I don’t want to stay there .

 

[CarolMN]

I don’t consider myself to be a representative DVC member, but I’m not buying the cabins no matter what incentives they come up w/ because I don’t want to stay there .

I feel the same way. IMO, the target market for the cabins does not include very many current DVC members. Those that may want to stay in one, are probably thinking they don't need to own to book one.

The cabins just do not appeal to me. I jumped on VGF2, though. Last purchase before that was in 2000.

 

[Sandisw]

I’m just waiting for the curveball in all this. CFW did seem high out the gate and I can’t help but wonder if they’re setting up some difference in DVC (DVC 2.0?) where the comparative costs give them an advantage to push sales where they prefer.

I think we are still in for surprises coming our way and the pricing incentives for the cabins which really were not great leads me this way.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I think we are still in for surprises coming our way and the pricing incentives for the cabins which really were not great leads me this way.

Yup. Because if the CFW cabins are going to cost that much, you are possibly getting something else with it (in the near future) to justify that higher price.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think we are still in for surprises coming our way and the pricing incentives for the cabins which really were not great leads me this way.

Are you saying that perhaps Poly2 gets put in a Palmetto trust as a way to force people to buy cabin points? I'm not sure I'm following you.

 

[SpicyMcHaggis]

Are you saying that perhaps Poly2 gets put in a Palmetto trust as a way to force people to buy cabin points? I'm not sure I'm following you.

There's been some speculation regarding a Reflections 2.0 sort of property potentially being bundled, and poly as well as the trust are still somewhat cloudy as to what is happening with those in the longer term.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Even if there is a Reflections or Reflections type resort in the near future to bundle with CFW, by the time they plan it and break new ground and who knows what timeline that'll be. It could be 5 years from now. Would that really drive more sales from now or would people just sit on their hands and wait leaving CFW selling very poorly for years to come?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Even if there is a Reflections or Reflections type resort in the near future to bundle with CFW, by the time they plan it and break new ground and who knows what timeline that'll be. It could be 5 years from now. Would that really drive more sales from now or would people just sit on their hands and wait leaving CFW selling very poorly for years to come?

Disney is just going to rent them for cash and sell them if people want them. IMO they are not worried about selling out resorts if they can rent for cash.

At VDH, they let cash people book rooms before owners of the place….

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Disney is just going to rent them for cash and sell them if people want them. IMO they are not worried about selling out resorts if they can rent for cash.

At VDH, they let cash people book rooms before owners of the place…

Absolutely. I was sort of replying to the idea that there's a resort bundle coming that would increase sales. If new member sales numbers don't pick up substantially from existing member sales numbers I'm not sure just the mention of a "Reflections" will boost it much more considering how long it takes to actually develop a new building from the ground up...as we've seen with Poly tower. But yes you're correct that they'll just keep renting them out as if DVC never even happened.

 

[T00dles]

February Direct Sales:



Data source: 'Direct Sales Start Slowly for Fort Wilderness Cabins in February 2024.' DVCNews. https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...y-for-fort-wilderness-cabins-in-february-2024.