Fast Pass Future? Predictions...

[greg9x]

I can absolutely see Disney going to a pay FP system... probably something like have to buy per park and maybe only once for each ride... or a 3/5/10 ride FP. Reduced people using FP means both lines would move faster (but will still be hour+
Standby) . Resort stays would get discount on the FP, or possibly 1 or 2 free as perk.

They don't need to draw more people like they did when all the perks were created, so they are going away to be replaced with pay experiences. Disney actually wants less people, but getting more $$'s out of them.

 

[greg9x]

Here is the real noodle scratcher.....

What's a FP worth to you.....and others?

We got them for free....so what next?

How much would you pay each?
5.99.
7.99
10.99

20.00 for all day? How about 50?


And if I am paying 2000.00 or more for an onsite hotel......it better be all the FP I want daily for free.....to me , paying those ridicules' prices for a WDW hotel would be a crime without it

They have just about taken all the benefits out of staying on site for me anyway. Years back the monorail was a great advantage, now its a crowded unpleasant mess that breaks all the time. Buses? Do not get me started on those....Magic Hours? Gone also....

So remind me again why we pay triple to ten times the rate at other hotels with the same amenities?

Universal's Express Pass is over $200/day during busy times and they sell a lot of them. Granted that's Unlimited rides. But if figure the Club level was $75 for 3 extra passes , then your defiantly in triple digits for anything over a couple FP's.

 

[JakeAZ]

So remind me again why we pay triple to ten times the rate at other hotels with the same amenities?

Because, sadly, people will. It's a one sided relationship with Disney and they are very aware of it.

How much would you pay each?
5.99.
7.99
10.99

20.00 for all day? How about 50?

Unfortunately, none of these prices are remotely close to what they will end up charging (maybe some will be "included" but all bets are off after that). VIP is basically a "human FP" and that was $40-$65 per person, per hour with an 8 hour minimum. We can all do the math.

 

[JakeAZ]

Disney actually wants less people, but getting more $$'s out of them.

100% accurate

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

Just bring back the ticket book for purchase but virtually. 5 FP choices from A to E like it used to be with a the simple rides like CoA being A ticket and 7DMT or Space being E ticket

 

[Edeyore]

The Express Pass at Universal was $89.00 last I checked. (Yes, it has be awhile) It provides, basically fast pass access to all rides. The charge is an add on, unless you are staying at one of the
better resorts. It is not beyond belief that Disney could be going in this direction.

 

[JakeAZ]

The Express Pass at Universal was $89.00 last I checked. (Yes, it has be awhile) It provides, basically fast pass access to all rides. The charge is an add on, unless you are staying at one of the
better resorts. It is not beyond belief that Disney could be going in this direction.

Ya you might want to check again. EP for our dates in November are anywhere from $130 - $170PP (and I believe they go as high as $190 on the most crowded days). We are staying at a hotel that includes them, but that is the rack rate.

You might be able to find $89 on a day with light crowds. Days like this are when the pass isn't really needed.

Universal can do this because they have less hotels and less traffic.

There is no possible way WDW is going to give this out with a deluxe stay OR offer something similar at those prices.

A VIP tour, at WDW, is $45-$65PP per hour, minimum 8 hours (might be 7 hours, I can't remember). VIP at WDW is basically a human FP. The math says they value "unlimited FP" at at least $360-$520PP for a limited portion of the day.

 

[jeffmw]

Disney actually wants less people, but getting more $$'s out of them.

100% accurate

I wouldn't necessarily limit Disney's greed to increasing customer value at the expense of attendance. I'd say Disney wants more people and more money out of them. Under normal operating standards (non-COVID), the parks are seldom at capacity. Disney would love to have every park at capacity, every day, and have every guest paying extra for everything they can potentially convince people it's worth paying extra for.

At some point 10-20 years ago a Disney exec stood up in a board meeting and said, "The average household income of a family who visits a Disney park is $85,000. We want to at least double that by 2020." And everything they've done since has been aligned with that model.

For the past 20 years, they've leaned heavily towards expanding hotel capacity, and VIP opportunities and events for guests with the financial means to spend more. I did the analysis a while back on another thread, but something like 75% of the new hotel rooms Disney has built over the past 20 years average at >$600 per night. And all future plans for resorts look to be Deluxe or DVC vs. anything at a Moderate or Value level. And, granted it's a fully immersive experience, but I believe the Star Wars resort will be the most expensive resort they've ever built on a per-person, per-night basis.

Every consumer brand is trying to maximize what customers spend. Metrics like cart size and customer lifetime value are huge in the corporate world. But nobody has quite taken it to the level of Disney.

 

[whiporee]

Here is the real noodle scratcher.....

What's a FP worth to you.....and others?

We got them for free....so what next?

How much would you pay each?
5.99.
7.99
10.99

20.00 for all day? How about 50?


And if I am paying 2000.00 or more for an onsite hotel......it better be all the FP I want daily for free.....to me , paying those ridicules' prices for a WDW hotel would be a crime without it

They have just about taken all the benefits out of staying on site for me anyway. Years back the monorail was a great advantage, now its a crowded unpleasant mess that breaks all the time. Buses? Do not get me started on those....Magic Hours? Gone also....

So remind me again why we pay triple to ten times the rate at other hotels with the same amenities?

I think WDW established the pricing with the CLFP system. $25 per FP. And that was on top of paying for a) the resort and b) club level.

If WDW were every to adopt a pure paid system, that's the pricing I would imagine.

I don't think. they will. In answer to the OP's original question whenever FPs return, I think they will be very similar to what we saw pre-COVID -- limited number per day available to all, with Resort guests getting some sot of advantage.

As for your other comments, the advantage of the Resorts is that you're staying at Disney. There are plenty of people who stay at resorts just for that reason. And honestly, if your'e talking about staying at places that are less than half the cost of a WDW resort, you're talking about places that are significantly less appealing. The advantage of WDW -- even if you remove all of the other perks -- is that there's a level of service and pleasantness to always associated with other hotels. There's a reason people stay at Four Seasons even though there are cheaper options.

For me -- and I'm biased because my kids are growing out of WDW -- the benefit for staying at a WDW hotel is that it's a WDW hotel. The ones at Universal are much the same -- they make an effort to entrap you into the idea that you are somewhere else. That may bot be a benefit to anyone who is looking at the vacation from a pure expense standpoint. But that's the case anywhere. I'd rather stay at a nice, clean resort with a pool than stay at the VRBO down the street where he owner's clothes are still in the closet.

 

[JakeAZ]

I think WDW established the pricing with the CLFP system. $25 per FP. And that was on top of paying for a) the resort and b) club level.

I agree with you, except it was $50 for 3 additional, so $17 each.

$17 per FP plus the cost of CL upgrade (which let's say is $300 more per night from a standard deluxe room). For a family of 4, that works out to an extra $75pp per day for the room and if it's $50pp per day for a pack of 3, you're looking at Disney "valuing" 3 extra FP at $125pp per day. And that's from standard deluxe to club deluxe. The delta is much higher if going from a moderate or value. So that family of 4 would "pay" an additional $500 per day for 3 extra FP. Now I don't think the pricing will be that extreme, but that's an idea of what WDW thinks they are worth.

My guess is whatever they sell the FP for will depend on your level of accommodations. If they don't, people will just book value and moderate and use the money they would have spent to upgrade to deluxe to buy FP packages instead. I know i would. I value waiting in shorter lines way more than a nicer place to sleep.

 

[gharter]

Ya you might want to check again. EP for our dates in November are anywhere from $130 - $170PP (and I believe they go as high as $190 on the most crowded days). We are staying at a hotel that includes them, but that is the rack rate.

I was surprised by the prices you posted as that much more than we paid in the past. I just looked on the Universal site and unlimited varies from $90 (rare to find), normal $120-130 up to $299 during Spring Break. Wow!

 

[Branderson610]

I think Disney is going to start charging for fastpasses. Disney has lost so munch revenue, with Disneyland being closed, reduced capacity, no parties or events and blockbuster movies going straight to Disney +. I just hope if they go to a paid fastpass system that they take a second look at the requirements of getting a DAS pass, because abuse will get worse. Right now people do not need any proof to get one.

 

[JakeAZ]

$299 during Spring Break. Wow!

Wow is right!

My guess is they know they will be packed and since they give them out with certain hotel stays, they want to keep the separate purchases down due to lower capacity.

Also, I just looked and SB is now up to $309

 

[Heather07438]

I think WDW established the pricing with the CLFP system. $25 per FP. And that was on top of paying for a) the resort and b) club level.

iirc, It was $50/day for CL FP.

That included 3 more FPs on top of original 3 with ability to use in other park and no tier restrictions, 90 day window for all 6 FPs, and included VIP view for a nighttime show each day.

You had to already be paying Club Level, pay for the package for everyone in your room, and buy at least 3 days worth.

Remember, WDW always starts new stuff with low cost and once it's well received at that price they jack up the cost. Think about dessert parties going from $28pp, to $49, $79 and $99 in quick succession. Party tickets did similar. In a little over a year, Maxpass in DL went from $10, to $15, to $20. This way all the first reviews are positive and those will continue to dominate google searches due to the algorithms. So I think whatever FP pkg roll outs will start with a decent relative value... get there before it jumps up!

 

[JakeAZ]

All your points are spot on! They use the same playbook as drug dealers!

and included VIP view for a nighttime show each day.

Also, they took this benefit away after about 6 months.

The Disney motto "the same or less for more"

 

[yaya74]

Check out what Disney is doing on the other side of the pond in Shanghai.

Premier Access Set for 12 rides about $115 per person (750 Chinese Yuan)
Here is the blog where I got the information from.

 

[DisneyMama811]

I just hope they don't leave middle-class folks behind. (They are already too expensive for many)

this. we are Canadians and with the distance and cost, a trip less than a week long doesn't make a lot of sense, we have been saving for literally years, pandemic put things on hold but hopefully we will make it next year

 

[hergosling]

This is a very interesting thread and I truly am eager to see what Disney comes up with.

My thoughts: Paid fast pass is coming, in one form or another

Disney is becoming just too busy. And I think they know that in becoming so crowded they are risking losing the customers that spend the most money- quite frankly the crowds are just getting to be "not worth it" for many guests. I know that's how my family is starting to feel and we typically go for 8-9 nights in a deluxe, in March, every single year. As much as we love Disney, the conversation has started that perhaps it's just not worth it for us. We have so many great memories there but we know there are lots of other really great vacations to be had too. It's not about the money or how expensive it is, we just don't want to deal with the crowds. The park experience has become the tipping point for us. We know and practice all the Fastpass tricks, but we still would be willing to pay more for a better park experience.

So, what do you do when you're too busy? You jack up prices. Do you price out some guests? you sure do. that's the whole point. Do you still make the same amount of money? you got it, if not more! Raise prices 20%... you might lose 20% of your guests but you're making 20% more on the ones you kept... all while lowering overhead and operating costs and giving the guests willing to pay more a better experience, which means there's a higher likelihood they'll keep coming back.

I think Disney was already toying with the idea, and Covid gave them all the excuse they needed. They are taking years and years of data we've given them from our magic bands and using this time wisely. They know precisely who stays where, who eats where, how many park days we buy, how much we spend at the resort pool bar, etc. And who comes back and does it all over again year after year. They know our vacation styles, now they're figuring out the tipping point.

I do think Fast pass of some sort is coming back, but I don't think we'll recognize it from it's original form.
My personal opinion, it absolutely should be tied to onsite and tied to resort type (value to deluxe). Some may disagree, but you should be getting more perks by staying onsite in a deluxe resort (especially if they're going to start taking away other onsite perks). You're giving Disney more of your vacation money by staying onsite and your loyalty for this absolutely should be rewarded. Especially if it's that much cheaper to stay offsite, with not too many fewer perks.
I'm not even convinced all the value resorts will be reopening- I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I think ultimately Disney would be smart to make it lucrative for people to stay not only onsite, but in deluxe resorts. The best way to do this is via lucrative fast passes. I know some of you think this isn't fair- but I'm sorry people- this is the way the world works. When you spend more, you tend to get more. If you aren't getting more for your money, you aren't going to spend more.

I don't know what the answer is... but there is no doubt they will cash in, and they should. I personally think they were giving out too many fast passes. Our last trip we found ourselves waiting 20-30 minutes in fast pass lines alone. The old fast pass system was flawed. There were too many given out to accommodate the tickets being sold. In turn it made the standby lines even longer as well, to the extent that you couldn't really do anything without a Fastpass. All that park ticket money for a few rides??? Gee thanks. I also thought the tiered system was silly in the fact that you had to book and "use" a fast pass for something you didn't want or need just so you could get additional ones.

I do wonder if they are getting people "used to the idea" of not having Fastpass now. If they bring it back and they cost money to get, they darn well better make sure they make it so that not everyone is buying them. That will defeat the purpose and turn people off even more. It has to be worth it and I do think the price will be higher than most predictions on here. I think they may throw us a bone and there may be something included or something "cheaper"... but for that truly better experience, you're going to be paying a premium. I also do not think it will be unlimited, they'll reserve that for the VIP tours still.

I'm hoping they come up with something that benefits those willing to pay more for a better experience as well as controls the crowds and limits ungodly standby lines. Fastpasses wouldn't be so lucrative if standby lines were reasonable. However- I agree with the thought process that Disney created the crowding problem so that they could present a (costly) solution for those that want it. They aren't idiots.

Another thought, perhaps shorter park hours are staying. Maybe MK will always close at 7pm... oh you want to stay late? That's an upcharge. Yes they did this with AfterHours... but they didn't start until 10pm or so. They've also already learned people will pay for that. Maybe now they start them earlier and charge even more. We had it planned for our trip last March that got cancelled and I was really looking forward to it- even though it was costing us a pretty penny. We value our time and waiting more than 30-45 minutes in line after line is no vacation for us. We are really looking forward to Fastpass returning in one form or another.

 

[JakeAZ]

This is a very interesting thread and I truly am eager to see what Disney comes up with.

My thoughts: Paid fast pass is coming, in one form or another

Disney is becoming just too busy. And I think they know that in becoming so crowded they are risking losing the customers that spend the most money- quite frankly the crowds are just getting to be "not worth it" for many guests. I know that's how my family is starting to feel and we typically go for 8-9 nights in a deluxe, in March, every single year. As much as we love Disney, the conversation has started that perhaps it's just not worth it for us. We have so many great memories there but we know there are lots of other really great vacations to be had too. It's not about the money or how expensive it is, we just don't want to deal with the crowds. The park experience has become the tipping point for us. We know and practice all the Fastpass tricks, but we still would be willing to pay more for a better park experience.

So, what do you do when you're too busy? You jack up prices. Do you price out some guests? you sure do. that's the whole point. Do you still make the same amount of money? you got it, if not more! Raise prices 20%... you might lose 20% of your guests but you're making 20% more on the ones you kept... all while lowering overhead and operating costs and giving the guests willing to pay more a better experience, which means there's a higher likelihood they'll keep coming back.

I think Disney was already toying with the idea, and Covid gave them all the excuse they needed. They are taking years and years of data we've given them from our magic bands and using this time wisely. They know precisely who stays where, who eats where, how many park days we buy, how much we spend at the resort pool bar, etc. And who comes back and does it all over again year after year. They know our vacation styles, now they're figuring out the tipping point.

I do think Fast pass of some sort is coming back, but I don't think we'll recognize it from it's original form.
My personal opinion, it absolutely should be tied to onsite and tied to resort type (value to deluxe). Some may disagree, but you should be getting more perks by staying onsite in a deluxe resort (especially if they're going to start taking away other onsite perks). You're giving Disney more of your vacation money by staying onsite and your loyalty for this absolutely should be rewarded. Especially if it's that much cheaper to stay offsite, with not too many fewer perks.
I'm not even convinced all the value resorts will be reopening- I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I think ultimately Disney would be smart to make it lucrative for people to stay not only onsite, but in deluxe resorts. The best way to do this is via lucrative fast passes. I know some of you think this isn't fair- but I'm sorry people- this is the way the world works. When you spend more, you tend to get more. If you aren't getting more for your money, you aren't going to spend more.

I don't know what the answer is... but there is no doubt they will cash in, and they should. I personally think they were giving out too many fast passes. Our last trip we found ourselves waiting 20-30 minutes in fast pass lines alone. The old fast pass system was flawed. There were too many given out to accommodate the tickets being sold. In turn it made the standby lines even longer as well, to the extent that you couldn't really do anything without a Fastpass. All that park ticket money for a few rides??? Gee thanks. I also thought the tiered system was silly in the fact that you had to book and "use" a fast pass for something you didn't want or need just so you could get additional ones.

I do wonder if they are getting people "used to the idea" of not having Fastpass now. If they bring it back and they cost money to get, they darn well better make sure they make it so that not everyone is buying them. That will defeat the purpose and turn people off even more. It has to be worth it and I do think the price will be higher than most predictions on here. I think they may throw us a bone and there may be something included or something "cheaper"... but for that truly better experience, you're going to be paying a premium. I also do not think it will be unlimited, they'll reserve that for the VIP tours still.

I'm hoping they come up with something that benefits those willing to pay more for a better experience as well as controls the crowds and limits ungodly standby lines. Fastpasses wouldn't be so lucrative if standby lines were reasonable. However- I agree with the thought process that Disney created the crowding problem so that they could present a (costly) solution for those that want it. They aren't idiots.

Another thought, perhaps shorter park hours are staying. Maybe MK will always close at 7pm... oh you want to stay late? That's an upcharge. Yes they did this with AfterHours... but they didn't start until 10pm or so. They've also already learned people will pay for that. Maybe now they start them earlier and charge even more. We had it planned for our trip last March that got cancelled and I was really looking forward to it- even though it was costing us a pretty penny. We value our time and waiting more than 30-45 minutes in line after line is no vacation for us. We are really looking forward to Fastpass returning in one form or another.

I agree with absolutely everything you said here!

We are booked in November and if they don't fix the crowds problem by then, we'll be done with Disney. I know we won't be alone. It's just too much money to spend all week fighting crowds and standing in long line after long line. Especially when we are starting off our trip with 3 days at Universal with EPs.

The word has gotten out, all the benefits of the Disney relationship are 100% one-sided. They better do something before people start finding out there is a wide world of other places you can go. And once people stop their 1/2/3 x per year WDW trips to do something else, it will be hard for Disney to get them to start back up again. You don't see it as much on here (because this board is full of die-hards) but I can't tell you how many people I talk to through friendships or work that come back disillusioned after a trip. Don't get me wrong, they have fun, but they just didn't realize how jam packed the parks can get and how expensive everything is. It's very easy for them to say "no thanks, we'll go someplace else next time"

Also, let's see how long on-site transportation and 30 minutes of early entry "justify" paying $900 / night to stay in a 300sq ft room at the Grand Floridian...

We're gonna do the trip, regardless of what changes happen before we arrive (credits need to be used and it's a big family trip with nobody getting any younger). But for this kind of money, there are much better destinations with much less stress involved.

 

[hergosling]

Us too, we're headed down in a few weeks. Our trip last March got cancelled so we haven't been in 2 years, but we were already feeling this way about the crowds.
I'm eager to see how things are post-Covid and will likely cut Disney some slack given the state of the world these days. Given that it'll be Easter time, we're prepared for crowded. But if it's a bad experience, I can guarantee there will be no convincing us to go back- and this is coming from a yearly-trip taking family where the cost doesn't break the bank. The cost just becomes an easy reason to say "yah, no thanks" to the crowds.
(and increasing crowds were precisely the reason we didn't buy in to DVC)
We're really hoping for a better solution to FP+, if not it will definitely be vacationing elsewhere for us.