Fall Incentives

[mamaofsix]

I’ve not seen them yet but expecting VGF to have sold about 15% (270k points) if now declaring nearly sold out…. although a lot of those won’t be recorded until Sep.

Did I miss where they are declaring it nearly sold out?

 

[Ruttangel]

Did I miss where they are declaring it nearly sold out?

It was confirmed by DVD last week also referenced here
https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...grand-floridian-price-increase-incentives-end

 

[DanCali]

Given that they did not really change the RIV incentives…at least at the 150 mark..it tells me they feel it will sell fine being it’s now the lowest priced option.

Riveria- trying to minimize incentives and get as much as they can before Poly Towers open and Riviera becomes a tough sale because, well Poly, most loved and most rabid fans!

Riviera is awesome as a resort, and I'm sure Poly2 will be great as well.

But I think Riviera, Poly2 and everything else going forward will be a tough sell given the resale restrictions. Yes, the extreme fans (or uninformed buyers) will buy direct regardless of restrictions but it's a big leap to say that a large part of VGF sales volume from June, July and August will now go towards Riviera. It looks like they sold 40K-44K Riviera points in each of May, June and July (we'll find out August soon enough). It may do better in the fall, but let's see just how better it does in Sep and October, now that it's the lowest priced WDW option by far (Sep will still have residual summer sales closings).

Riviera resale prices today are not where they will be in 4-5 years. Yes, some contracts sell because some some buyers are willing to pay higher prices (Econ 101 - demand curves generally slope downwards), but most contracts linger out there at an impasse for months with the sellers not budging. There are 39 contracts out there with 300 points or less - 23 of those (~60%) have been on the market for 60+ days and some as long as over a year. It's not an efficient market...

The resort is barely 3 years old and not even sold out. Supply will increase substantially in the coming years, the market will become more efficient, and resale prices will eventually settle at whatever buyers and sellers view as "fair value" down the road. IMO, it will be much lower than today which would make it that much harder for many informed buyers to buy direct. That said, I do think it's a great resort and would not hesitate to buy it resale, but at a price that reflects both it's extremely limited functionality as a resale product, and it's higher dues relative to other resorts like Poly1, VGF, and BLT.

 

[pianomanzano]

With MB
VGF $193
RIV $168
VDH $192
AUL $171

Yikes is right!

It looks like magical beginnings has been reduced to $20/point. From the DVC website:

Offer requires eligible new purchasers and Add-On Members to be a resident of one of the 50 US states and participate in a Resort sales tour, either telephonically or in person (“Tour”), and buy an ownership interest directly from Disney Vacation Development, Inc. (“Developer”) with at least 150 Vacation Points at select Disney Vacation Club Resorts. Eligible purchasers may exchange their full allotment of Vacation Points from the first Use Year for a cash rebate to be determined by Developer, currently $20 per point, subject to change.

 

[Sandisw]

Riviera is awesome as a resort, and I'm sure Poly2 will be great as well.

But I think Riviera, Poly2 and everything else going forward will be a tough sell given the resale restrictions. Yes, the extreme fans (or uninformed buyers) will buy direct regardless of restrictions but it's a big leap to say that a large part of VGF sales volume from June, July and August will now go towards Riviera. It looks like they sold 40K-44K Riviera points in each of May, June and July (we'll find out August soon enough). It may do better in the fall, but let's see just how better it does in Sep and October, now that it's the lowest priced WDW option by far (Sep will still have residual summer sales closings).

Riviera resale prices today are not where they will be in 4-5 years. Yes, some contracts sell because some some buyers are willing to pay higher prices (Econ 101 - demand curves generally slope downwards), but most contracts linger out there at an impasse for months with the sellers not budging. There are 39 contracts out there with 300 points or less - 23 of those (~60%) have been on the market for 60+ days and some as long as over a year. It's not an efficient market...

The resort is barely 3 years old and not even sold out. Supply will increase substantially in the coming years, the market will become more efficient, and resale prices will eventually settle at whatever buyers and sellers view as "fair value" down the road. IMO, it will be much lower than today which would make it that much harder for many informed buyers to buy direct. That said, I do think it's a great resort and would not hesitate to buy it resale, but at a price that reflects both it's extremely limited functionality as a resale product, and it's higher dues relative to other resorts like Poly1, VGF, and BLT.

With 6.7 million points, even if it had averaged 100k points a month..a very high sales number…it would take 67 months for RIV to reach sell out. We are about 54 months into sales.

So, even without the pandemic and other factors, it would not have sold out this quickly.

It definitely has have been slow in 2023…but, in 2022 when it was lower than VGF it did much better…closer to 70 to 80k.

My guess is we will see those numbers again…although IIRC, Oct is typically the lowest month historically for low sales.

It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next few months.

But, I think since VGF went on sale in 2022, it certainly seems that a lot of new buyers have gone for the lower priced resort.

I was expecting RIV to be a bit better given the slower sales but obviously DVD thinks this price point is going to give them what they want.

 

[take36]

Riviera is awesome as a resort, and I'm sure Poly2 will be great as well.

But I think Riviera, Poly2 and everything else going forward will be a tough sell given the resale restrictions. Yes, the extreme fans (or uninformed buyers) will buy direct regardless of restrictions but it's a big leap to say that a large part of VGF sales volume from June, July and August will now go towards Riviera. It looks like they sold 40K-44K Riviera points in each of May, June and July (we'll find out August soon enough). It may do better in the fall, but let's see just how better it does in Sep and October, now that it's the lowest priced WDW option by far (Sep will still have residual summer sales closings).

Riviera resale prices today are not where they will be in 4-5 years. Yes, some contracts sell because some some buyers are willing to pay higher prices (Econ 101 - demand curves generally slope downwards), but most contracts linger out there at an impasse for months with the sellers not budging. There are 39 contracts out there with 300 points or less - 23 of those (~60%) have been on the market for 60+ days and some as long as over a year. It's not an efficient market...

The resort is barely 3 years old and not even sold out. Supply will increase substantially in the coming years, the market will become more efficient, and resale prices will eventually settle at whatever buyers and sellers view as "fair value" down the road. IMO, it will be much lower than today which would make it that much harder for many informed buyers to buy direct. That said, I do think it's a great resort and would not hesitate to buy it resale, but at a price that reflects both it's extremely limited functionality as a resale product, and it's higher dues relative to other resorts like Poly1, VGF, and BLT.

I agree, new resorts with the resale restrictions will slow down the direct sales for those with the intense spreadsheets as factoring in potential resale value is a consideration. Disney seems to recognizes this as they have shifted marketing it as a savings to more of a legacy and family memories.

Riviera is the new and shiny DVC in WDW and VDH is new in DL, and Poly will soon to be the newest and best. VDH and Poly do have the advantage of being in Disneyland and Poly being such a fan favorite respectively that the resale hit on them should be less. If I was considering Riviera I would wait until Poly2 gets into the full swing and there should be some deals in the resale and direct sales. DVD almost has to keep Riviera high right now as its the newest (as not to make those that bought in early feel bad) and keeping the DVC brand strong, at least until Poly 2 is finished and they can shift marketing and sales there. They might even okay with Riviera being like AUL and really never selling out.

 

[misskari]

Does any one have the new chart for VDLH for military/cast member discounts? TIA!

 

[BeachClub2014]

But I think Riviera, Poly2 and everything else going forward will be a tough sell given the resale restrictions. Yes, the extreme fans (or uninformed buyers) will buy direct regardless of restrictions but it's a big leap to say that a large part of VGF sales volume from June, July and August will now go towards Riviera.

I agree, new resorts with the resale restrictions will slow down the direct sales for those with the intense spreadsheets as factoring in potential resale value is a consideration. Disney seems to recognizes this as they have shifted marketing it as a savings to more of a legacy and family memories.

There's a lot of discussion here on DIS about how restrictions on resale points drag direct sales, but there's little actual data or evidence to support that belief. I do not doubt that the restrictions have prevented some buyers from steering clear of purchasing at Riviera, but I doubt that it has had an impact on the majority of buyers. When Riviera was priced better than GFV it outsold that resort several months in a row. When DVC increased the incentives on GFV to make it a better deal than RIV, the sales trend flipped. This suggests to me that overall price is probably the more likely driver.

 

[MISCdisney21]

I loved riviera when we stayed. I’d consider adding on there in future and not worried about resale as no plans to sell it in future. Only concern for me is waiting for right time and getting best price.
And restrictions for me are doing what Disney hoped and keeping me from looking resale but buying direct.

 

[take36]

I loved riviera when we stayed. I’d consider adding on there in future and not worried about resale as no plans to sell it in future. Only concern for me is waiting for right time and getting best price.
And restrictions for me are doing what Disney hoped and keeping me from looking resale but buying direct.

This is the way!

Riviera is perfect for your forever resort and with direct benefits. Hopefully they keep up the rooms and don't "dumb down" the restaurant and theming in the future.

 

[Genie+]

Makes me wonder about Poly2 pricing the first year. If it’s a 50yr contract best price may never get under $200pp.

It may sell OK like that. $4pp/yr would be the break down. Compared to Poly resale coming in ~$3.50pp/yr that cannot trade to new resorts or get blue card.

 

[DanCali]

Makes me wonder about Poly2 pricing the first year. If it’s a 50yr contract best price may never get under $200pp.

It may sell OK like that. $4pp/yr would be the break down. Compared to Poly resale coming in ~$3.50pp/yr that cannot trade to new resorts or get blue card.

That's a reasonable way to look at it.

But which do you think will have a higher resale value in 10 years? Poly1 or Poly2?

Personally, I think Poly1 will be much more valuable on the resale market since it can trade into 13 other resorts, including Hawaii (maybe just 7-8 resorts after 2042) while Poly2 will be much less desirable for a resale buyer. That's just from a functionality perspective, not the resort itself. So I have no desire to be the direct Poly2 owner selling in 7-10 years and incurring a 50%+ capital loss on something with an advertised 50-year life. If I loved the resort, I might be happy to be on the other side of that transaction though...

 

[UA DVC Member]

Big Pine Key

Got it! Thanks!

 

[arich35]

So how much would I have saved on a 200 point contract if I wanted for the fall incentives? I did Magical Beginnings for the 2022 points

 

[Ruttangel]

So how much would I have saved on a 200 point contract if I wanted for the fall incentives? I did Magical Beginnings for the 2022 points

At least $5k if you are talking about VGF

 

[UA DVC Member]

Riviera is awesome as a resort, and I'm sure Poly2 will be great as well.

But I think Riviera, Poly2 and everything else going forward will be a tough sell given the resale restrictions. Yes, the extreme fans (or uninformed buyers) will buy direct regardless of restrictions but it's a big leap to say that a large part of VGF sales volume from June, July and August will now go towards Riviera. It looks like they sold 40K-44K Riviera points in each of May, June and July (we'll find out August soon enough). It may do better in the fall, but let's see just how better it does in Sep and October, now that it's the lowest priced WDW option by far (Sep will still have residual summer sales closings).

Riviera resale prices today are not where they will be in 4-5 years. Yes, some contracts sell because some some buyers are willing to pay higher prices (Econ 101 - demand curves generally slope downwards), but most contracts linger out there at an impasse for months with the sellers not budging. There are 39 contracts out there with 300 points or less - 23 of those (~60%) have been on the market for 60+ days and some as long as over a year. It's not an efficient market...

The resort is barely 3 years old and not even sold out. Supply will increase substantially in the coming years, the market will become more efficient, and resale prices will eventually settle at whatever buyers and sellers view as "fair value" down the road. IMO, it will be much lower than today which would make it that much harder for many informed buyers to buy direct. That said, I do think it's a great resort and would not hesitate to buy it resale, but at a price that reflects both it's extremely limited functionality as a resale product, and it's higher dues relative to other resorts like Poly1, VGF, and BLT.

I think you are exactly right. I believe that Disney is being penny-wise, pound-foolish here in it's attempt to steer buyers toward buying direct.

One of the best attributes of the DVC, IMHO, is the fact that there is an active, vibrant resale market. It's really the only timeshare product that holds its value after you've bought it. That alone is what helps people get over the hump to buy in the first place. You have liquidity if your circumstances change in the future. The resale restrictions on RIV (and presumably future new resorts) kill the resale value and thus the liquidity of the resale market. I would never buy a property with such restrictions. I think more people are thinking this way. I think DVD is shooting themselves in the foot here.

We just added on 150 pts at VGF and took advantage of the great deal that just ended. One of the reasons we bought was because we think it's the last resort to not have resale restrictions.

 

[DanCali]

We just added on 150 pts at VGF and took advantage of the great deal that just ended. One of the reasons we bought was because we think it's the last resort to not have resale restrictions.

We did the same with VGF for exactly the same reasons (even after going for the AKV direct promo in the Spring, which got us the blue card). I now have plenty of currency to take my chances with the new resorts at 7 months and waitlists and, if that fails too often, I'd be ok with the resale buys at the right price.

 

[RuntheMouse]

There's a lot of discussion here on DIS about how restrictions on resale points drag direct sales, but there's little actual data or evidence to support that belief. I do not doubt that the restrictions have prevented some buyers from steering clear of purchasing at Riviera, but I doubt that it has had an impact on the majority of buyers. When

We bought RIV direct BECAUSE of the resale restrictions. I wanted points to use anywhere in the future. Everything else we bought resale.
I’m taking those points to the grave!

 

[BeachClub2014]

One of the best attributes of the DVC, IMHO, is the fact that there is an active, vibrant resale market. It's really the only timeshare product that holds its value after you've bought it. That alone is what helps people get over the hump to buy in the first place. You have liquidity if your circumstances change in the future. The resale restrictions on RIV (and presumably future new resorts) kill the resale value and thus the liquidity of the resale market. I would never buy a property with such restrictions. I think more people are thinking this way. I think DVD is shooting themselves in the foot here.

I think the jury is still out on what impact restrictions have on the resale market and price point for the resort. So far, the resale restrictions haven't seemed to have tanked the value of Riviera. As more restricted resorts come on line, those restrictions will become the norm, not the exception. Unless DVC backs away from restrictions, which they sure don't seem inclined to do.

 

[J-Dog]

I think you are exactly right. I believe that Disney is being penny-wise, pound-foolish here in it's attempt to steer buyers toward buying direct.

One of the best attributes of the DVC, IMHO, is the fact that there is an active, vibrant resale market. It's really the only timeshare product that holds its value after you've bought it. That alone is what helps people get over the hump to buy in the first place. You have liquidity if your circumstances change in the future. The resale restrictions on RIV (and presumably future new resorts) kill the resale value and thus the liquidity of the resale market. I would never buy a property with such restrictions. I think more people are thinking this way. I think DVD is shooting themselves in the foot here.

We just added on 150 pts at VGF and took advantage of the great deal that just ended. One of the reasons we bought was because we think it's the last resort to not have resale restrictions.

Why do you say that? So far, I have seen no evidence to support that restrictions have impacted resale value. And with more restricted resorts coming online, theoretically the impact should lessen, not worsen.

One could argue that the lack of better incentives at RIV this fall is because DVD thinks that there will indeed be suppressed resale value due to restrictions, so resale is worthless, and therefore they don't need to entice people to buy direct.

But the other possibility for the lack of new incentives at RIV is, like Sandi said, they are just happy with the current rate of direct sales and it has nothing to do with restrictions or resale value - since they don't have a crystal ball any more than we do.