Disney to cancel FPs if room is cancelled

[BridgetBordeaux]

Yes I have seen that. That says previews in July according to their sources. However according to mine that ain't happening.

Bummer............maybe we will all get a compromise..........perhaps well before Thanksgiving. That would be nice.

 

[rteetz]

Bummer............maybe we will all get a compromise..........perhaps well before Thanksgiving. That would be nice.

Before Thanksgiving is very possible.

 

[anomamatt]

Before Thanksgiving is very possible.

Keep on topic, @rteetz (I kid, I kid). (And I’m sure you are right. Is wdwnt ever right?).

 

[loutoo]

It’s either (a) less park crowds means Disney adds more FP to the pool (this does make sense, but we have no access to the data) or (b) off site strategists are fewer (as the total number of off site guests shrinks during May)

³

I would postulate that the mere announcement of the crack down and the explicit statements saying that we will cancel your FPs has begun to curb the process. I would agree that the historical dip in May is due to a lack of offsite strategists that time of year, but having traveled this time of year 3 out of the last 4 years, the availability described seems significantly better than my recollection.

I dont think wdw runs seasonal variations in FP+ allocations.

The math says that at any given time there are approximately 90,000 onsite guests (including partner hotels). The assumption is that most headliners have approximately 17,000-22,000 Fp+ a day. Assuming that the guests are somewhat equally spread between the parks and some % either dont go to a park, don't know or bother to book at 60+ or dont choose the #1 top headliner in their park of choice, then there should almost never be a shortage at the beginning of the 60+ window. Sure, the 1 newest ride might be tough to get at 60, but not the 1 in every park. Hotel capacity just doesnt allow for that to be true.

My math could be significantly wrong, but I'm pretty confident in it. That leaves abuse as the culprit and that means the strategists with their fannypacks full of umbrellas, silly acronyms, and justifications are responsible for strategizing away once in a life pixie dust from families on their only trip.

I followed this thread because I often book split stays, and I wanted to see how the new policies would effect them. Honestly I'm fine if they eliminate my split stay window now that I understand how it is being abused. I'm appalled by the idea of booking a lead reservation to extend the booking window just to cancel it. I'm appalled by a lot of the so called "strategies" being shared and discussed here. They are clearly and unabashedly designed to circumvent rules and game the system and despite what people may claim, abusing the system hurts everyone in the system.

 

[anomamatt]

I dont think wdw runs seasonal variations in FP+ allocations.

I think they do -- but I have no inside knowledge. Disney has said they want to normalize wait times for standby throughout the year. They can do that by FP+ (and staffing levels). The more FP+ they release, the longer the standby times. Slower times therefore would require more FP+ in the system -- and they also absolutely play with staffing levels to normalize wait times throughout the year.

I have gone to WDW over different times of the year and I've always anecdotally thought there was a lot more FP+ availability during the 'less busy' seasons.

That leaves abuse as the culprit and that means the strategists with their fannypacks full of umbrellas, silly acronyms, and justifications are responsible for strategizing away once in a life pixie dust from families on their only trip.

I think you are overestimating the number of Fastpass+ strategists. Let's imagine that 10% or less of WDW guests frequent message boards like this one. From what I have seen on disboards, far less than 10% of people here seem to consider themselves Fastpass+ strategists. In fact, I've only seen *one* person with "Fastpass+ Stategist" below their username! But even if 10% here are strategists, that means that, at most, 1% of Disney guests are Fastpass+ strategists. (The 1 percenters!).

 

[Magnoliafan]

That's really cool to hear you weren't online till 9:30 to book your FPs. When my window opens I won't be able to get to my FP ressies till about 6:45 when I arrive at school. That's 7:45 Disney time. The only headliners I'm looking for is 7DMT and TT. We don't visit HS and FoP will not work with my wacky motion sickness. JETSDAD already asked, but what were your FP times for 7DMT and FoP. I'm also curious to how many were in your party?

I’m a solo traveler, so that probably widened the pool a bit for me. 7DMT was completely open. I wanted a later time, but could have booked morning if I wanted. I just played around with the modify button and 1:10 is the earliest available. And again, this is at Day 60. The earliest FOP time at Day 61 this morning was about 2pm, but it was wide open for Day 63. Currently, I can modify Day 61 to 4:40 at the earliest.

I have no idea if the new rules are helping with availability, but I’ve never had this much luck with headliners before. Even as a solo traveler.

 

[SilSprBea]

In fact, I've only seen *one* person with "Fastpass+ Stategist" below their username!

 

[loutoo]

I think you are overestimating the number of Fastpass+ strategists. Let's imagine that 10% or less of WDW guests frequent message boards like this one. From what I have seen on disboards, far less than 10% of people here seem to consider themselves Fastpass+ strategists. In fact, I've only seen *one* person with "Fastpass+ Stategist" below their username! But even if 10% here are strategists, that means that, at most, 1% of Disney guests are Fastpass+ strategists. (The 1 percenters!).

I do think that the those who abuse the system represent a larger % than you do. I would put them between 2% and 5% of attendance. They are are a smaller % of total visitors, but they are frequent visitors and so represent a larger % of attendance (I think).

Even if we take your estimate of 1% lets do the math. The average daily attendance for the four parks is around 160,000, if 1% of the people are strategists using some loophole or technique to game the system that is 1600 people which is 4800 FP+s (that assumes they are not some how gaming the system to prebook more than 3). These are the most sought after FP+s in the system and they disappear before almost anyone can access them. Again, I sincerely believe that the number is greater by multiples. If it is 2% not 1% then we are talking about nearly 10,000 FP+s. Regardless, 100 is too many.

I apologize, I'll get off my soapbox now. I know my ranting isn't on topic, sorry Ryan.

 

[Runnsally]

I do think that the those who abuse the system represent a larger % than you do. I would put them between 2% and 5% of attendance. They are are a smaller % of total visitors, but they are frequent visitors and so represent a larger % of attendance (I think).

Even if we take your estimate of 1% lets do the math. The average daily attendance for the four parks is around 160,000, if 1% of the people are strategists using some loophole or technique to game the system that is 1600 people which is 4800 FP+s (that assumes they are not some how gaming the system to prebook more than 3). These are the most sought after FP+s in the system and they disappear before almost anyone can access them. Again, I sincerely believe that the number is greater by multiples. If it is 2% not 1% then we are talking about nearly 10,000 FP+s. Regardless, 100 is too many.

I apologize, I'll get off my soapbox now. I know my ranting isn't on topic, sorry Ryan.

Interesting math, but I think the 1% number is way too high

 

[cakebaker]

I think you are overestimating the number of Fastpass+ strategists. Let's imagine that 10% or less of WDW guests frequent message boards like this one. From what I have seen on disboards, far less than 10% of people here seem to consider themselves Fastpass+ strategists. In fact, I've only seen *one* person with "Fastpass+ Stategist" below their username! But even if 10% here are strategists, that means that, at most, 1% of Disney guests are Fastpass+ strategists. (The 1 percenters!).

I don’t think it’s individuals that are having a huge effect on availability. I think it’s when TA’s get wind of the hacks and start using them or informing their customers of them. That’s when the numbers blow up.

Some people are working with a frenzy testing the system to see what they can get away with after the latest changes. And eventually, it will become enough of a problem that Disney will make changes that affect everyone. Those who choose to cheat won’t care, they’ll just move on to the next hack.

This latest change could affect me in the future. We don’t intentionally book split stays, only doing it due to availability. Last Oct I had to book a single night stay before my stay at the YC due to weather and having to fly in early. But if making these changes cuts down on abuse, I’ll put up with it.

 

[MommaBerd]

I personally believe the May FP availability has to do with lower crowds. Think about the fact that Disney released free dining early and the MNSSHP dates super early - they just aren’t seeing the crowds. And if May has already been a slow time of year, it may be even slower this year. I think it is WAY to early to know if this is from the supposed crack-down.

 

[BridgetBordeaux]

This late Spring and early Summer may be unlike many others due to SWGE. Many people are delaying a visit until after it opens. That might be a May 2019 factor.

 

[isabellea]

Hmmmm.........

from wdwnt--fresh post on main page at top:

" If sources are to be believed, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will open in Florida in September/October, with preview events set to start in late July. A lot still has to go right for this to happen, but it sounds likely."

Canadian promo on tickets ends Sept 27th 2019. In the past, the end date of our promos often coincided with a change (e.g. ticket increase)

 

[Cinderumbrella]

When people start seeing the same success for Memorial Day and beyond, then I’ll declare it a successful fix.

 

[cakebaker]

When people start seeing the same success for Memorial Day and beyond, then I’ll declare it a successful fix.

I don’t think any fix will make it easy to get FP’s on holidays.

If it stops or slows down people from cheating, it’s a success to me.

 

[loutoo]

Interesting math, but I think the 1% number is way too high

If this was being done by such a small and insignificant # of people like you are claiming WDW wouldn't be putting the time and effort into correcting it. These are signficant changes that are complex, disruptive, and expensive for disney. They aren't doing this for fun. This abuse has become rampant to the point WDW felt forced to make a change. It was effecting their room inventory which is massive. And their customers satisfaction, wh6for Disney is gold.

On some parts of these forums people discuss and share these "strategies," but other areas of these forums are littered with frustrated guests who face massive lines and the inability to book experiences inpart as result of these exploits.

Ways to cheat the system are a Google search away. Scores of TAs and paid Disney planners are exploiting these techniques for lists of clients everyday.

The people on these forums are developing and testing these techniques which are then spread online and through a network of people and businesses that exploit these loopholes to make money at everyone else's expense.

Disney doesn't revamp their IT to plug holes used by the one and only strategist. To think that you would have to be both naive and narcissistic. If this was a handful of folks a day sneaking FP+s a few days early Disney would look the other way. That is not what this is. Disney is making a big and cumbersome investment into updating their databases and IT structures to try to curb this. They wouldn't be doing that if this wasn't a legitimate problem.

I stand by my math, and more to the point Disney has done way more math than me, and their math said this problem was big enough to trigger spending and IT headaches to correct.

 

[Cinderumbrella]

I don’t think any fix will make it easy to get FP’s on holidays.

If it stops or slows down people from cheating, it’s a success to me.

I meant once summer season begins. I don’t consider early May a good enough representation of FP availability

 

[cakebaker]

I personally believe the May FP availability has to do with lower crowds. Think about the fact that Disney released free dining early and the MNSSHP dates super early - they just aren’t seeing the crowds. And if May has already been a slow time of year, it may be even slower this year. I think it is WAY to early to know if this is from the supposed crack-down.

If you look at resort availability for early May, it certainly wouldn’t appear that they don’t have the crowds. My resort of choice was booked solid months ago on a discount and even at rack rate, every single value and moderate ( with the exception of AOA suites) is sold out. It’s too much of a coincidence that fp availability jumped within days of the new policy starting.

The prevailing thought on these boards is there is no slow time anymore. I can’t recall a time in recent history that days after my window opened I could still book FOP and as of this morning, I still can.

 

[charmed59]

I think if Disney could find a way to get rid of the ability to get fast passes in advance without angering a huge portion of their consumer base they would. You’ll note the other parks have all sorts of different ways to get fastpasses, but the WDW great experiment is not being used at any of them.

What was meant to be a way of everyone to get a chance to experience at least 3 popular attractions a day has morphed into planning headaches and customers trying to out wit the Disney IT department. First time travelers silly enough to book onsite rooms and go in and make FP reservations 55 days out are shocked they can’t get access to the rides that are all over the promotion materials. Some number of those vow to come back and learn the strategies, while some decide there is better bang for their buck choosing other vacation options, sometimes just down the road at Universal.

I live about an hour away from Disney. I’d be inclined to get a resident Florida pass and visit monthly if it weren’t for the amount of planning required just to get on Soaring in a reasonable amount of time. As much as I’d love to ride FOP, there is no way I’m standing in line for 2+ hours or booking a 5 night stay onsite or wrestling with Disney IT to get my tickets linked and refresh every few hours for a month. So I just don’t go. Does Disney need folks like me, nope. It just depends on whether or not these super Disney fans will rub off onto enough other people to keep the crowds sustainable.

 

[mckennarose]

If this was being done by such a small and insignificant # of people like you are claiming WDW wouldn't be putting the time and effort into correcting it. These are signficant changes that are complex, disruptive, and expensive for disney. They aren't doing this for fun. This abuse has become rampant to the point WDW felt forced to make a change. It was effecting their room inventory which is massive. And their customers satisfaction, wh6for Disney is gold.
.........
Disney doesn't revamp their IT to plug holes used by the one and only strategist. To think that you would have to be both naive and narcissistic. If this was a handful of folks a day sneaking FP+s a few days early Disney would look the other way. That is not what this is. Disney is making a big and cumbersome investment into updating their databases and IT structures to try to curb this. They wouldn't be doing that if this wasn't a legitimate problem.

I stand by my math, and more to the point Disney has done way more math than me, and their math said this problem was big enough to trigger spending and IT headaches to correct.

I believe the "legitimate problem" Disney has (from their perspective) is finding extra FP+ for the people they are selling new rooms to, the two new hotels added to the list of hotels with onsite benefits, the new onsite hotels opening and the upcoming SWGE madhouse. Not closing the door to a few who may have done the leading FP+ and cancelled rooms. I don't believe that was a significant number to cause such a big change.

I just checked the campsite availability for my upcoming week in May and all the week days are available for one night stays (throwaway campsites, if someone were to use it that way). I checked all three types of campsites, and all were available for each day of the week. If there were so many people using this strategy, wouldn't there be less or no availability? At two months prior to a Disney trip people usually have their plans pretty much set.

I'm really leaning this way to explain why this is happening:

This is all very strange. With the apparent (so far anyway) lack of enforcement or fully plugging the hole to begin with, I'm actually wondering if that wasn't the goal. Maybe split stays were actually the target and not the collateral damage. With word that they added 1500 more rooms with 60 day eligibility maybe they just wanted to open up more 60 day availability to sell to these new hotels. I'm sure a lot more people use legit split stays than the leading reservation and not treating it as a continuous stay frees up a lot of availability. And Disney has proven in the past that they can slam the door pretty solidly shut on a loophole when they want to (see the SDFP thread).

If leading reservations were the real target then they desperately need to hire some white hats. I think a couple people on this thread would be good candidates. Disney could probably pay them in Anytime FPs.

I think SWGE is the biggest driver for sure. There is a huge “storm” that is sweeping the theme park world with this addition. Disney is making so many changes to their parks because of this one land. That’s never been seen before.