Current owners: Do you feel that renters are impacting resort availability?

[Brian Noble]

Per that article, solved captchas cost between $1 and $5 per thousand. So maybe an extra $20/day, in exchange for reliably booking as many low-cost/high-margin rooms as you can?

That's in the noise.

 

[lowlight]

What they don't understand is that these things cost $$$ to develop. LOTS of $$$.

There are literal script kiddies on Reddit, ******* and the like that develop scripts for free to farm fake money in online games. There’s zero money to be made and these scripts cost almost nothing to create. There’s tons of open source on GitHub. If you say you have coded such scripts yourself, then you also know that unless an API change or some security related change happens behind the scenes, they take very little maintenance to upkeep. I’m not even saying these places are using bots, although it’s likely, they have other means to secure these reservations.

 

[crisi]

It depends on what you mean. There are a number of members who book right at eleven months and are looking for the high demand rooms (often the low point options like VAKL value or BWV standard and usually studios). Some of those members own a lot of points and then rent out the rooms that they book. Some of them may be using automated systems to do so. So yes, if what you are talking about is "is there more competition at eleven months for my BWV standard studio" renting certainly doesn't help - any more than a scalper buying 100 tickets to the NCAA games helps the average fan's chances of securing a ticket.

But DVC is a system designed to operate at occupancy. Which means that at eleven months owners are going to be snapping up those high demand rooms and that there should be enough rooms for everyone to get a room - just not necessarily the room you want when you want it. So if you buy BLT, you may never get the BWV standard view studio - even if there wasn't a rental market - there are just a few of those rooms and a lot of BWV owners who want them for their own use. And if you book less than seven months out you may find availability spotty, you may end up at a resort you don't really want, you may end up switching rooms, and you may not get a room at all if you wait too long. But that would be the case with no rental market at all because there are (pretty much) enough points to book all rooms to capacity, and enough rooms to use up all the points.

Think of it as musical chairs - there are just enough chairs for everyone - but someone gets stuck sitting on the stool without a cushion or not taking a chair at all. People who own more points just have more players in the game - and people who own a lot of points to rent are playing it aggressively. Where us low points for our own use people have just one player walking the ring, and may want to do it in a more lackadaisical fashion. We do have the option of playing aggressively though - just a lot of us don't want to. In this case the stool is a one bedroom out at SSR for two nights before you move to the Poly for one night in a studio and then move for the remaining two nights to VAKL-Kidani in a one bedroom - because those were the rooms available.

 

[lowlight]

Saying spec rental companies don’t put added demand on hard to get rooms is like saying DAS fakers don’t put added demand on LL. They are finite resources. Of course if there are 100 rooms then that is all that can be rented, but those 100 rooms may fill in 2 minutes and 15 seconds at the 11 month mark without the added rental company demand, and with it they may fill at 0 minutes and 3 seconds at the 11 month mark. It’s the same 100 rooms, the outcome is still being affected. And yes, it matters to me and it should to you if 80 of those 100 rooms are going to be listed on xyz website for 35 points because a rental agent told their client to get that listing, instead of abc DVC owner trying to book for personal use.

 

[eandt]

I want to hear more about these supposed bots/scripts that people think others are magically using to book rooms. While I can't believe such a thing exists (though it most certainly could but would require owners to share IDs and passwords), if it does; this is most definitely a violation of the TOS and may even rise to the level of criminal activity.

Can’t see how it can be ‘bots’ whatever those are … owners aren’t stupid, even we know that the coveted rooms are valuable so I believe it’s owners grabbing them within minutes of 11 month window with or without intent to rent which I can’t really see an issue with them doing with their points what they wish within the rules.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Can’t see how it can be ‘bots’ whatever those are … owners aren’t stupid, even we know that the coveted rooms are valuable so I believe it’s owners grabbing them within minutes of 11 month window with or without intent to rent which I can’t really see an issue with them doing with their points what they wish within the rules.

So how is it, then, that a pretty large volume of the coveted rooms and dates end up in the hands of just a few predominant rental sites? Are you suggesting that traditional "recreational" owners (defined as owners who use their points for themselves) are securing these most coveted rooms AND then turning them over to brokers to rent out? If that's what your saying, and apologies if I am misunderstanding, that seems highly unlikely.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Can’t see how it can be ‘bots’ whatever those are … owners aren’t stupid, even we know that the coveted rooms are valuable so I believe it’s owners grabbing them within minutes of 11 month window with or without intent to rent which I can’t really see an issue with them doing with their points what they wish within the rules.

We're not talking about owners like Sid and Marjorie Jones from Omaha renting out their 260 OKW points because Marjorie had a hip replacement in January. We're talking about DVCTrips, LLC in Windermere using their 4,000 points (along with however many thousands of points purchased through other LLC's they've set up to defeat point ownership maximums) and a bot to sweep and snag premium rooms at 8:00:01 am every morning.

There is absolutely no chance at all that DVC could have ever anticipated the possibility, way back in 1992, that in 2024 there would be computer programs that could scrape the site for available rooms in nanoseconds. Heck, online booking wasn't even a reality for over a decade. Plus, if anyone is really curious as to whether such bots can and do exist, just Google "Ticket Bots" or "Scalper Bots" and see what the technology has done to the online ticket industry.

ETA: Oh, and TicketMaster, StubHub, SeatGeek, etc. all have "are you human" verification required for login and purchases, so that's not an issue for the bots.

 

[EYL]

Be careful for what you wish for. Captchas are great until you're on the 5th round of "Where's the bus?" and still can't confirm the booking of the AKV Value Studio you just snagged. They might do too good a job keeping bots away along with humans. With Disney IT the way it is, I'd just KISS.

 

[lowlight]

Scripts and bots overlap, but aren’t exactly the same. A high end bot utilizing AI can defeat captcha.

 

[eandt]

So how is it, then, that a pretty large volume of the coveted rooms and dates end up in the hands of just a few predominant rental sites? Are you suggesting that traditional "recreational" owners (defined as owners who use their points for themselves) are securing these most coveted rooms AND then turning them over to brokers to rent out? If that's what your saying, and apologies if I am misunderstanding, that seems highly unlikely.

That’s exactly what I’m saying over the auto dialer theory

 

[bakerworld]

Today I went on to try for 1 night Nov. 1 and there are no studios or 1Br. Did I miss a holiday? LOL

 

[BeachClub2014]

We're not talking about owners like Sid and Marjorie Jones from Omaha renting out their 260 OKW points because Marjorie had a hip replacement in January. We're talking about DVCTrips, LLC in Windermere using their 4,000 points (along with however many thousands of points purchased through other LLC's they've set up to defeat point ownership maximums) and a bot to sweep and snag premium rooms at 8:00:01 am every morning.

There is absolutely no chance at all that DVC could have ever anticipated the possibility, way back in 1992, that in 2024 there would be computer programs that could scrape the site for available rooms in nanoseconds. Heck, online booking wasn't even a reality for over a decade. Plus, if anyone is really curious as to whether such bots can and do exist, just Google "Ticket Bots" or "Scalper Bots" and see what the technology has done to the online ticket industry.

ETA: Oh, and TicketMaster, StubHub, SeatGeek, etc. all have "are you human" verification required for login and purchases, so that's not an issue for the bots.

Nah, nah, nah @DonMacGregor, you have it all wrong. It's just the basic rule of supply and demand and the Jones's were lucky enough to sign in at 8:00 AM, snag the AKV value studio over the 4th of July and then gave it to the rental broker to rent on their behalf. Apparently there are a lot of the Jones's out there in DVCland.

You missed the memo, technology has nothing to do with it, or so I've read.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Nah, nah, nah @DonMacGregor, you have it all wrong. It's just the basic rule of supply and demand and the Jones's were lucky enough to sign in at 8:00 AM, snag the AKV value studio over the 4th of July and then gave it to the rental broker to rent on their behalf. Apparently there are a lot of the Jones's out there in DVCland.

You missed the memo, technology has nothing to do with it, or so I've read.

No artificial intelligence could ever be faster than a meemaw from the prairie.

 

[RuntheMouse]

Today I went on to try for 1 night Nov. 1 and there are no studios or 1Br. Did I miss a holiday? LOL

Yep, runDisney weekend.

 

[eandt]

No artificial intelligence could ever be faster than a meemaw from the prairie.

Not a meemaw or from the prairie or a ‘bot with some kind of script’, just a dude with some extra points, but what if I told you every year I make several reservations (I don’t) of the ‘coveted’ 64 BW std’s during food and wine at the stroke of 11 months because I know there is a huge demand from non owners so i can rent them out and make enough to more than pay my dues .. … and what if I told you that there are a whole bunch of others out there just like me which is a big reason why the coveted 64 only last for a few minutes apparently ..

 

[DonMacGregor]

Not a meemaw or from the prairie or a ‘bot with some kind of script’, just a dude with some extra points, but what if I told you every year I make several reservations (I don’t) of the ‘coveted’ 64 BW std’s during food and wine at the stroke of 11 months because I know there is a huge demand from non owners so i can rent them out and make enough to more than pay my dues .. … and what if I told you that there are a whole bunch of others out there just like me which is a big reason why the coveted 64 only last for a few minutes apparently ..

You got “several”. Have you ever got 20, or 30, or 40?

What if I told you that there are LLC’s that have been identified through research at the Comptroller’s office and verified to own thousands of points, and what if I told you that many of those contracts are owned by the same entities that operate rental sites, and what if I told you that there are weeks-long stretches where 80-90% of the value studios at AKL (and other desirable rooms) are being offered for rent by the same entities?

And what if I told you you can find through very little effort, individual people/entities who have, on a rolling basis, 25 to 30 discrete reservations available for rent, a large number of which are for some of the most sought-after rooms and travel periods?

No one is suggesting there aren’t plenty of individuals who, through planning and diligence, manage to secure single digit reservations at peak periods throughout the year. There’s nothing wrong with that. Its the people/entities that have twenty times your “several” reservations that are the issue.

Plus, those “bots with a script” are out there now, in the real world, snagging Stones, Taylor Swift, and Drake tickets, sometimes tens of thousands in the first hour of sales, so grabbing DVC reservations would be a ridiculously simple (and profitable) endeavor. To think someone hasn’t taken a commercially available scraping bot and modified it to search for hotel rooms as if they were concert tickets would be naive.

 

[eandt]

You got “several”. Have you ever got 20, or 30, or 40?

What if I told you that there are LLC’s that have been identified through research at the Comptroller’s office and verified to own thousands of points, and what if I told you that many of those contracts are owned by the same entities that operate rental sites, and what if I told you that there are weeks-long stretches where 80-90% of the value studios at AKL (and other desirable rooms) are being offered for rent by the same entities?

And what if I told you you can find through very little effort, individual people/entities who have, on a rolling basis, 25 to 30 discrete reservations available for rent, a large number of which are for some of the most sought-after rooms and travel periods?

No one is suggesting there aren’t plenty of individuals who, through planning and diligence, manage to secure single digit reservations at peak periods throughout the year. There’s nothing wrong with that. Its the people/entities that have twenty times your “several” reservations that are the issue.

Plus, those “bots with a script” are out there now, in the real world, snagging Stones, Taylor Swift, and Drake tickets, sometimes tens of thousands in the first hour of sales, so grabbing DVC reservations would be a ridiculously simple (and profitable) endeavor. To think someone hasn’t taken a commercially available scraping bot and modified it to search for hotel rooms as if they were concert tickets would be naive.

Idk I somehow am able to snag what I want when I want it from these bogeymen as long as I do it right at 11 months …. So why is it thought to be impossible that 63 others might do the same thing? Then 20 or 30 of us bot/script busters sell those reservations to the rental companies

 

[lowlight]

Idk I somehow am able to snag what I want when I want it from these bogeymen as long as I do it right at 11 months …. So why is it thought to be impossible that 63 others might do the same thing? Then 20 or 30 of us bot/script busters sell those reservations to the rental companies

It’s literally provable that this isn’t happening naturally. I’m not sure why you don’t believe it, but try renting to this place yourself with a normal September week reservation and see what they tell you to do.

 

[eandt]

It’s literally provable that this isn’t happening naturally. I’m not sure why you don’t believe it, but try renting to this place yourself with a normal September week reservation and see what they tell you to do.

Not sure what you mean ‘try renting to this place yourself’ all I’m saying is I get std be studios and akl values (harder) when I want them at 11 months (I’ve never walked) but will admit September is not when we travel. Oct/Nov/Dec/Feb is our time. Why don’t you believe there are many owners that know how valuable some of these rooms are at certain times of the year and grab them just to rent or sell to cover dues or flat out make $? I bet it happens more than you think … so probably a combination of things but it’s not impossible to get what you want as long as you hit it at the stroke of 11 months… I don’t really care how owners chose to use their points, the walkers are more of a pebble in my shoe because they cause me a little more effort but again don’t really care because it’s not against the rules and in fact MS explained to me how to do it during my onboarding call.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Not sure what you mean ‘try renting to this place yourself’ all I’m saying is I get std be studios and akl values (harder) when I want them at 11 months (I’ve never walked) but will admit September is not when we travel. Oct/Nov/Dec/Feb is our time. Why don’t you believe there are many owners that know how valuable some of these rooms are at certain times of the year and grab them just to rent or sell to cover dues or flat out make $? I bet it happens more than you think … so probably a combination of things but it’s not impossible to get what you want as long as you hit it at the stroke of 11 months… I don’t really care how owners chose to use their points, the walkers are more of a pebble in my shoe because they cause me a little more effort but again don’t really care because it’s not against the rules and in fact MS explained to me how to do it during my onboarding call.

Congratulations on this. If you can always get Boardwalk standard and AKL value studios when you want them, you'll be a unicorn in the DVC world.

I agree that there are those owners, but that hasn't been the point I have been making. The use of technology to secure highly sought-after reservations by rental companies unfairly tilts the odds in their favor. To suggest that this technology is just a "bogeyman" is, at best, naive.

People often have different "pebbles in their shoe," so perhaps not dismissing other "pebbles" would go a long way. Just sayin'.