Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[jerry557]

CDC has just extended the no sail order by 100 more days.. that would put cruise sailings on hold until July 13th.

Cruise ships are going to be shut down even longer than theme parks....perhaps much longer. It's literally impossible to contain a spread on a cruise ship. You can't isolate anything. One infected person with COVID-19 can literally lead to 33% of the ship infected in a matter of days. I think maybe they could do limited capacities in the fall if they have some type of testing of passengers and take mitigation strategies into practice. They are trying to come out more with those 5-minute tests. If a cruise can get that, test every passenger before they go on, that might be doable.

But the cruise industry is going to be absolutely hammered from this.

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Reading the order it appears to be 6/22 , 100 days from the date of the order filing 3/14, this is not a new order just a modification and the order can be lifted earlier.

From USA Today.,

 

[OnceUponATime15]

Cruise ships are going to be shut down even longer than theme parks....perhaps much longer. It's literally impossible to contain a spread on a cruise ship. You can't isolate anything. One infected person with COVID-19 can literally lead to 33% of the ship infected in a matter of days. I think maybe they could do limited capacities in the fall if they have some type of testing of passengers and take mitigation strategies into practice. They are trying to come out more with those 5-minute tests. If a cruise can get that, test every passenger before they go on, that might be doable.

But the cruise industry is going to be absolutely hammered from this.

Carnival alone is estimating $1B losses per month.. it will be hard if not impossible to rebound from that.

 

[anthony2k7]

Wells Fargo expert suggests October at the earliest for parks to open.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-disney-parks-wake-me-up-when-fiscal-202.aspx

 

[andyman8]

International CM's while adding to the experience, are not required for World Showcase, they easily can open with domestic CM's and will if possible.

Two caveats here though. The way Attractions CMs at WDW are trained, they are based in a particular area of a particular park and cannot work in another area unless they transfer over and are trained (there are temporary exceptions when a CM is transitioning from one area to another), and remember that Attractions CMs operate not only the rides in WS but the theaters, shows, American Adventure, and even some of the Meet & Greets. Deployment doesn’t really exist within Attractions for the most part, and the same can be said for Full-Service F&B for the most part. That doesn’t mean it can’t for this special circumstance, but at the moment there aren’t nearly enough CMs trained in those areas to operate them. Merchandise and QSFBs could operate, but Disney would need to train CMs for Attractions and many FS F&B roles. For each CM that’s anywhere from 5 to 8 days, and while they could train a bunch of them at the same time, that will most certainly delay the opening of WS by a bit.

The other wrinkle is that WDW doesn’t actually operate all of the WS pavilions. Mexico and Japan, for example, are operated by third parties (and they have also sent all of the international employees home), so they would either need to “hire” and then train some Disney CMs or hire and train all new employees from the ground up from the Orlando area (which they don’t have a ton of experience with. And what would happen to those employees when the next batch of Cultural Representatives come in the fall? All of this is to say that they’re a lot of kinks Disney has to iron out with WS in particular. I think it’ll open but I’d expect a lag. It’s possible they might open some of the stores and QSFB locations but it will probably happen after some of the other parks reopen.

 

[anthony2k7]

The other wrinkle is that WDW doesn’t actually operate all of the WS pavilions. Mexico and Japan, for example, are operated by third parties (and they have also sent all of the international employees home)

This is a key point here.

We already know Disney terminated contracts with some of the 3rd party entertainment companies. What other contracts have been terminated by either side due to breach of terms or other reasons? It's happening everywhere outside of disney right now so likely within Disney as well.

Disney uses 3rd party companies in many areas where most guests wouldn't even consider them to be 3rd party. Some of them may be quite fundamental to the parks reopening.

 

[MichelinMan]

No, you won't. Seriously admins, you need to shut down this hysteria. 2-3 months, 6 months of a shut down/economic downturn will not cause more deaths and severe lasting health effects than opening back up too soon. Study the great depression, past recessions - outside of a bit of an increase in suicides, death rates DROPPED. So despite the increase in suicides, there were less heart attacks, less accidents, less illness related deaths, resulting in an overall drop in rate of death. In contrast, deaths actually increase during times of economic expansion.

I'm not sure that this is true. There have been studies in the UK that has shown the effect of austerity after the financial crash has resulted in adverse health effects for the nation - for example reduced life expectancy and suicides. Building on those models, one University has put the tipping point for this virus at a 6.4% reduction in the economy - which is around the amount the economy dropped in the financial crash. This virus will likely have a much bigger effect than that even. So this is difficult juggling act - knowing just when the economic factors will outweigh the effects of the virus itself.

Good article here:

https://www.theweek.co.uk/106338/why-economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-coronavirus

 

[MichelinMan]

I know that conventional wisdom is that Disney Springs will open first, but honestly I see Disney Springs as just as much of a hazard as anything else. Do you know how many times I pick something up that someone else has picked up in the park? Rarely. Occasionally, maybe. Do you know how many times I pick something up that someone else has touched at Disney Springs? All the freaking time. Every 5 seconds. Think about shirt hangers that others have touched. Salt and pepper shakers. There is no way to sanitize every single item and every single hanger and every single doorknob between shoppers at Disney Springs.

Think about the Lego Store, Pin Trading, All of the many, many, many ornaments in the Christmas Shoppe. The princess statues that people will take pictures with and inevitably put their hands on. And, with the number of restaurants and kiosks there, as compared with one of the parks, it makes policing and monitoring every single transaction nearly impossible. Add to that when DS is crowded, it is crazy crowded and there isn't much way to enforce any sort of reduced capacity the same way there is in the parks.

I think a lot of this stuff is on individuals to do the right thing and do the smart thing. And I am all for personal responsibility. But, all it takes is one person to put their hand on a counter somewhere, and then 4 or 5 other people to put their hand in the same spot and maybe wipe their sweaty eyes and...then it starts.

I just see DS as more difficult to enforce changes. Am I crazy?

Agree 100%. Restaurants in particular are some of the worst places - people crammed into a room together, all touching the same surfaces. Similarly hotels - yes, the rooms might be ok, but all the rest of the public spaces, such as the restaurants, will be just as bad as the parks.

So I see no reason scientifically why the parks and Disney Springs can't open at the same time. However, from a PR perspective, it might play better in the narrative to open DS first, as an indication they are 'opening back up gradually'.

 

[aibo]

Don´t make any plans until you are willing to bring your own family into a crowded movie theater. Here in Europe people and the health authorities are talking bout lifting the travel bands outside your own country fall 2021

 

[yankeesfan123]

Agree 100%. Restaurants in particular are some of the worst places - people crammed into a room together, all touching the same surfaces. Similarly hotels - yes, the rooms might be ok, but all the rest of the public spaces, such as the restaurants, will be just as bad as the parks.

So I see no reason scientifically why the parks and Disney Springs can't open at the same time. However, from a PR perspective, it might play better in the narrative to open DS first, as an indication they are 'opening back up gradually'.

Restaurants don’t have to be crammed... simply limit capacity and wash down tables and chairs between meals.

 

[lovethesun12]

I'm not sure that this is true. There have been studies in the UK that has shown the effect of austerity after the financial crash has resulted in adverse health effects for the nation - for example reduced life expectancy and suicides. Building on those models, one University has put the tipping point for this virus at a 6.4% reduction in the economy - which is around the amount the economy dropped in the financial crash. This virus will likely have a much bigger effect than that even. So this is difficult juggling act - knowing just when the economic factors will outweigh the effects of the virus itself.

Good article here:

https://www.theweek.co.uk/106338/why-economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-coronavirus

Perhaps they shouldn't use austerity then since it has been proven not to work effectively.

 

[kiki02]

I've heard it said my several experts that social distancing will need to be in place for many months - perhaps until a vaccine is fully available.

Its also been said often in the UK a quote from one of our health experts of something like if your life is unaffected then you are not reacting as you should - nothing should be normal.

On top of this, retail stores and work places open currently have to demonstrably show they have implemented social distancing processes/polices.

That said, I wonder if it will be impossible for disney to open in any kind of normal state this year. When they do open it may only be when they can demonstrate that social distancing is in place. So that may be no shows, no pools (in Florida ouch!), some kind of capacity controls on all shops and food outlets, space markers on floor for all queues.

Does the virus survive in warm chlorinated water?

 

[mshanson3121]

Wells Fargo expert suggests October at the earliest for parks to open.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....-disney-parks-wake-me-up-when-fiscal-202.aspx

My question from this: how WILL Disney achieve reducing capacity? I honestly do see them only allowing admission to on site guests only. I mean, you can't expect people to spend thousands of dollars and travel potentially thousands of miles, without there being a guarantee they get into the park that day. (Normal) people won't do it.

So my guess is, for quite a while, on site guests only will be allowed into the parks. They can track potential attendees for the day through the amount of registered hotel guests, and of course through the booking of FP+. They would obviously have to limit the amount of resort rooms allowed to be booked, which I think is in line with the speculation that only a few resorts open initially. Maybe a couple in each category?

Maybe allow the Florida resident AP holders a certain allotment, too? Or, once resort guests have met their quota, locals could show up that day and take a chance on getting in if there's extra spots? Not sure.

I'm guessing park hopping won't be allowed, since that would make it a lot harder to predict attendance at each park, and people aren't going to want to build plans around park hopping only to be told later, sorry, we're full, go somewhere else. Easier to just not allow it.

But who knows

My take away: the chance of us taking our vacation to WDW in 2021 is looking pretty slim

 

[mshanson3121]

Does the virus survive in warm chlorinated water?

No. They've said for awhile now that the virus doesn't appear to transmit through regular water, and properly chlorinated swimming pools definitely kill/inactivate the virus. So swimming in the pool itself is perfectly safe - as long as you don't come within 6' of another person, and remember to wash your hands well after touching anything.

 

[kymom99]

CDC has just extended the no sail order by 100 more days.. that would put cruise sailings on hold until July 13th.

I hope they push it out farther so I get my deposit back

 

[mshanson3121]

Restaurants don’t have to be crammed... simply limit capacity and wash down tables and chairs between meals.

This. Restaurants are actually relatively easy to achieve social distancing in - reduce capacity by half, which means people are then easily seated 6' apart. Restaurants in many places have already done this, across the globe. For quick serve, make sure the tills open are 6' apart, and place stickers on the floor 6' apart to show where to stand. One person per group/family in line only. Staff wear masks. No cash allowed. Hand sanitizer on the tables to "wash" with before eating. Disposable utensils in plastic packaging so you know it's clean. Or, even regular silverware that's been sterilized, in wrapping so you know it's clean.

 

[halfpintpeggy]

My question from this: how WILL Disney achieve reducing capacity? I honestly do see them only allowing admission to on site guests only. I mean, you can't expect people to spend thousands of dollars and travel potentially thousands of miles, without there being a guarantee they get into the park that day. (Normal) people won't do it.

So my guess is, for quite a while, on site guests only will be allowed into the parks. They can track potential attendees for the day through the amount of registered hotel guests, and of course through the booking of FP+. They would obviously have to limit the amount of resort rooms allowed to be booked, which I think is in line with the speculation that only a few resorts open initially. Maybe a couple in each category?

Maybe allow the Florida resident AP holders a certain allotment, too? Or, once resort guests have met their quota, locals could show up that day and take a chance on getting in if there's extra spots? Not sure.

I'm guessing park hopping won't be allowed, since that would make it a lot harder to predict attendance at each park, and people aren't going to want to build plans around park hopping only to be told later, sorry, we're full, go somewhere else. Easier to just not allow it.

But who knows

My take away: the chance of us taking our vacation to WDW in 2021 is looking pretty slim

I’ve been seeing quite a bit of theorizing about park hopping. It will be interesting to see if they don’t allow this anymore. (Or strictly limit it) I was surprised to see the “Recovery” free dining deal only requires base tickets. Perhaps that’s foretelling?

 

[halfpintpeggy]

Don´t make any plans until you are willing to bring your own family into a crowded movie theater. Here in Europe people and the health authorities are talking bout lifting the travel bands outside your own country fall 2021

If this actually happens, Disneyland Paris is in big trouble!

 

[Jroceagles]

My question from this: how WILL Disney achieve reducing capacity? I honestly do see them only allowing admission to on site guests only. I mean, you can't expect people to spend thousands of dollars and travel potentially thousands of miles, without there being a guarantee they get into the park that day. (Normal) people won't do it.

So my guess is, for quite a while, on site guests only will be allowed into the parks. They can track potential attendees for the day through the amount of registered hotel guests, and of course through the booking of FP+. They would obviously have to limit the amount of resort rooms allowed to be booked, which I think is in line with the speculation that only a few resorts open initially. Maybe a couple in each category?

Maybe allow the Florida resident AP holders a certain allotment, too? Or, once resort guests have met their quota, locals could show up that day and take a chance on getting in if there's extra spots? Not sure.

I'm guessing park hopping won't be allowed, since that would make it a lot harder to predict attendance at each park, and people aren't going to want to build plans around park hopping only to be told later, sorry, we're full, go somewhere else. Easier to just not allow it.

But who knows

My take away: the chance of us taking our vacation to WDW in 2021 is looking pretty slim

DOOM AND GLOOM!

I expect to be there for my August vaca in 4 months!!! Dr. Fauci is already discussing plans to get things going again by May 1st (in a methodical layed out plan). WDW would not survive if it waited until 2021.

 

[choirfarm]

This. Restaurants are actually relatively easy to achieve social distancing in - reduce capacity by half, which means people are then easily seated 6' apart. Restaurants in many places have already done this, across the globe. For quick serve, make sure the tills open are 6' apart, and place stickers on the floor 6' apart to show where to stand. One person per group/family in line only. Staff wear masks. No cash allowed. Hand sanitizer on the tables to "wash" with before eating. Disposable utensils in plastic packaging so you know it's clean. Or, even regular silverware that's been sterilized, in wrapping so you know it's clean.

In our small town, that will make not be financially viable. They will have to remain closed. They cannot pay their overhead doing that.