crowd "predictor" question

[PaladinButters]

The last 3 Summers, we have not looked at a crowd calendar once. We just assume it will be busy but if you know what you are doing, it isn't bad.

And yet I keep hearing that summer is turning into the low season and fall is busier than ever now. Would you say there's been any general difference over the years that you've gone?

 

[disneyseniors]

I have always used Kenny the Pirates crowd calenders, and have never been disappointed. To me, they are the most accurate. I don't know how anyone can predict crowds nowadays, but Kenny's is the best I've found.

 

[tguz]

And yet I keep hearing that summer is turning into the low season and fall is busier than ever now. Would you say there's been any general difference over the years that you've gone?

I really have not noticed a difference and the last three Summers we have been there the same week.....last week of July/first couple days of August.

 

[Klayfish]

And yet I keep hearing that summer is turning into the low season and fall is busier than ever now. Would you say there's been any general difference over the years that you've gone?

We were there summer of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Yes, summer is a "slow" season relatively speaking. '18 was busier than the previous, but not by a huge margin.

 

[gharter]

not sure if your comment was meant to be a snooty one, matter-of-factish or if you are agreeing with me, but clearly they were then and still are now.

agree about all of the new openings.

just matter of fact.
There is always so much debate about how accurate crowd calendars are and how helpful they may or may not be.
I still look at them to get an idea, but never fully believe them. Especially when I get an email 2 weeks before that my crowd level 2 day is now a 7.

 

[CalSea12]

We were there summer of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Yes, summer is a "slow" season relatively speaking. '18 was busier than the previous, but not by a huge margin.

Is there a reason that summer is the "slow" season? Is it the heat? Is it because people avoid it now because they think its crowded?

 

[Jonfw2]

Is there a reason that summer is the "slow" season? Is it the heat? Is it because people avoid it now because they think its crowded?

I think that was just an anomaly this year since Rise wasn't open yet.

 

[DisKAH]

What about July - do something else on weekends and go on weekdays?

 

[Heather07438]

The crowd calendars are really no better than an experienced guest taking a guess. In fact I'd say that guest has better odds because they're able to consider real-time details that are better indicators than historical data (like changed EMHs, night show schedules, new rides, etc). I'll view them only to see if I over-looked something on our dates. TP and KtP has other services that are more useful. Mid-week's usually the least crowded and weekends more crowded anyway, so it's always a personal choice to decide which parks you'd best enjoy on those golden mid-week days. The right answer depends on what your priorities are, like seeing MK fireworks during party season, doing FoP without a FP, or if you have a park hopper.

For which weeks are best, look at WDW's pricing. Expensive day, expect it to be crowded. Cheaper days, less crowded. And the more crowded WDW expects it to be, the more hours the parks will be open which helps spread the people out, sometimes even better than off-season short park hour days.

 

[Heather07438]

What about July - do something else on weekends and go on weekdays?

It depends how many days your trip is I think. If you can avoid weekends, that's probably best but most people can't do that. In that case I'd plan my hardest parks midweek. Often even though I know weekends are crowded festival season at Epcot, I'll do Epcot on the weekend anyway because it's a pretty easy park for us. We'd personally find it a better advantage to hit a harder park during one of the lower crowd days.

This is different for everyone though. Depends on the ages and interests of your party.

 

[Heather07438]

Another thing to consider is your personal itinerary. If you have a late night (party or whatever) then you'll probably want to plan an easy day the next morning. Maybe where FPs aren't a struggle and you won't need to ropedrop.

And then there's on-site planning where you might want need to plan HS/AK/MK on Day 3 or more so you can get a FP for SDD/FoP/7DMT.

That's why I wouldn't stress over the crowd calendar. Your personal plans matter more than their slightly accurate predictions.

 

[Matt961]

The only times I look at are for 1s and 10s on TP. Because 10s are always around holidays and you know if will be busy. 1s are aren’t super common, but a week with them back to back is a good week for me. Because most of the time with 1s they turn into actual level 3 or so. So still a “low” crowd. However once you get into the 4-8 range the wait times differences are so minimal that it doesn’t matter.
And since you are thinking of your parents most of these“crowd” calendars are really more wait time calendars vs. crowds.

 

[DisKAH]

Thanks!

 

[Upatnoon]

How you tour the parks is far more important looking at a number on a date.

Knowing how to use the fast pass system and what attractions are busiest at what times. Knowing that if you eat lunch at 11:30 a.m. you are going to have a better experience than if you wait until noon.

The parks are busier than ever, so plan and have realistic expectation of what you can do.

 

[Klayfish]

I think that was just an anomaly this year since Rise wasn't open yet.

No, not an anomaly. As I mentioned, we went 4 straight summers and they were all relatively slow (again, using WDW typical crowds as a measuring stick). Summer is their "slow" season. As to why, not completely sure. I think some of it is heat. I also think summer season is long, so families have 2+ months to spread out when to go. Some go early June, some go late June, early July, etc... That's as opposed to Thanksgiving, Easter or Xmas where it's the same dates for everyone.

 

[PaladinButters]

I think that was just an anomaly this year since Rise wasn't open yet.

Last year Rise for sure played a part and this year there's also TONS of people waiting for the 50th. (I swear every other post I see on other forums is asking when the 50th starts or when it can be booked). But, where have the 'every summer' families gone to?

Is there a reason that summer is the "slow" season? Is it the heat? Is it because people avoid it now because they think its crowded?

Interesting thought (nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded). The OTHER of the every other post I always see is people asking when the low crowd times are. Could it be that this kind of thing has caused the crowds shifting away from busy times, thereby creating different busy times.

The parks are busier than ever, so plan and have realistic expectation of what you can do.

Nothing is more true! "Busy" times may be shifting (one might say evening out - which I'm sure the mouse loves) but it's still a visit to the most visited
vacation spot in the world. A lower crowd day does not mean you can just walk on to FoP or get seated at CRT with no reservations!

 

[GADisneyDad14]

I donno, we've gone the last four Julys and I would have pegged this last summer as the 'busiest.' If things like SW and the 50th are influences, it is only on the margins, in my opinion.

Still love summer at WDW.

 

[ISUamanda]

The crowd calendars are really no better than an experienced guest taking a guess.

Very VERY few people are going to be experienced enough to make even a decent guess. For example, when I was planning my first trip and asked people I knew who were frequent Disney visitors, I was told "January is slow" with more research I found out that yeah, it is...except for early (after New years, still winter break), and Marathon week/end, and around Martin Luther King Jr Day weekend.

Why isn't it easier (for most people) to rely on data driven predictions that take than into account? TP and KtP have offerings that bring value for the subscription price, so the crowd calendar is "free" if you're already making use of those tools. Will they be exactly correct? No, of course now. Will they be directionally/relationally correct? Absolutely.

Pooling knowledge is almost always useful, I'm happy to let someone else do it for me. Understanding, of course, that there's no crystal ball.

 

[ISUamanda]

Besides, remember, these "predictions" don't even guess at crowd size anyhow. Rather, they're guessing at ride wait times, which may or may not be related to crowd size. Always wonder why they then call themselves crowd calendars if that's not what they're measuring anyway. Seems intentionally deceptive, IMO.

I think raw attendance numbers (crowds) are about the least helpful measure they could provide. If MK only has 10k guests on a given day, that would mean extremely low crowds. But if Disney has slashed the staff and is running rides at bare minimum capacity (only one side of Dumbo and one train for SDMT) or closing some rides down for a portion of the day...it's not going to "feel" like low crowds because I'm still going to wait in lines a lot.

Disney doesn't publish attendance numbers, but they do publish ride wait times...so it would be odd to provide a forecast that isn't in alignment with the underlying data.

I think most of the sites that do this (base their crowd calendars on anticipated wait times) are pretty transparent about it, and have judged it (correctly, IMO) as the more meaningful metric when it comes to the park experience.

 

[Klayfish]

If you want to put faith into a crowd calendar, that's great. To me, they're absolute snake oil and frauds no matter what metric you look at.