Crowd predictions

[julieheyer]

So, I'm looking at several different crowd predictor sites trying to decide which days to visit the parks next week. Looking on its packed and touring plans. Both have Wednesday may 24 as lower than it think it'll be (it's a grad nite!) and Friday may 26 is a 6/10 at DL and DCA on touring plans...which is GOTG opening day and Memorial Day weekend. Can anyone give me advice on trusting the sites vs common sense? We're thinking the sites are putting too much stock in pass blackout dates and aren't sure what to believe.

As of now we're leaning toward DL on Monday and DCA on Thursday...possible dates are anything that week. Advice appreciated and I do realize no one has a crystal ball . Thanks!

 

[CAbryan]

I was not going to entertain that weekend but with TP at a 7 we may have to go!

I am guessing it ends up busier especially with GOTG weekend, that soft launch party for Friday is sold out. The upside is that maybe everyone will be in DCA on that side of the park.

 

[cruisehopeful]

I seem to often read that the crowd predictors are off, sometimes extremely off. I never go by those. Look at Figmentjii's list of events and judge it for yourself based on what is going on for your dates. My daughter went on a grad night last weekend and she said she'll never go there on a grad night again.
https://www.disboards.com/threads/2017-calendar-of-events-school-breaks-and-dlr.3528760/

 

[SMD]

How can any crowd predictor predict grad nights? They don't know when any group will arrive and depending on which schools are there it will be different for each one. Between the people desperate to avoid being around any group of teens and the other school programs that Disney runs, I haven't noticed grad nights being any more crowded than non-grad nights. People will tell you that some teens were loud, or curse, or cut in line, but that's not about crowds.

 

[agamble]

Which Monday? I wouldn't go on Memorial Day, it will likely be the busiest day of the weekend. But the Monday before should be alright. Wednesdays are typically the least busy day of the week. Grad nights are good to avoid if you can, but they do not necessarily cause serious crowding especially if locals stay away on those days.

 

[GatorChris]

Crowd predictors have become obsolete. Why? Because they're always wrong. Last time we went at the end of Feb, we were getting "ghost town" and a high of 4/10 on Friday. It was very busy on Wed and Thursday, and Friday ended up being a 9/10 (though I don't know how they could've fit another human being in the parks that day). Then the next week was predicted to be busier because Spring Break started....and everyone came back to these boards bragging about awesome crowds.

Just look at this way. If you see a crowd calendar, there are 100,000 people seeing the same calendar. And now they're not going to go when it predicted to be crowded, but when it's supposed to be light crowds. I'd love to see some research to see how much these crowd calendars are actually affecting the parks. Right now, it feels like they're affecting them a lot.

 

[marsh0013]

Crowd predictors have become obsolete. Why? Because they're always wrong. Last time we went at the end of Feb, we were getting "ghost town" and a high of 4/10 on Friday. It was very busy on Wed and Thursday, and Friday ended up being a 9/10 (though I don't know how they could've fit another human being in the parks that day). Then the next week was predicted to be busier because Spring Break started....and everyone came back to these boards bragging about awesome crowds.

Just look at this way. If you see a crowd calendar, there are 100,000 people seeing the same calendar. And now they're not going to go when it predicted to be crowded, but when it's supposed to be light crowds. I'd love to see some research to see how much these crowd calendars are actually affecting the parks. Right now, it feels like they're affecting them a lot.

Totally agree! We were in the parks Friday April 20 through Tuesday April 25 which included Dapper Day weekend. Friday-Sunday were not bad at all and Monday and Tuesday were much worse. Of course the crowd calendars predicted the opposite.

 

[chickapin parterre]

Wednesday mornings till 11:30/noon are always fantastic. Much more can be accomplished during a Wednesday morning than any full day the rest of the week. So that would lead to a lower crowd forecast, because statistically Tuesday is the last day to leave and Thursday is the first day to arrive. Of course by noon it is back to normal, but the day is not lost because that then would a good a time to take in low interest activites. And if you are butting up against a Wednesday grad night, then sure, the evening would be crowded. But I have a strange set of touring values....Splash first thing after leaving fantasyland visit with a rope drop, four times in the same log, FP ROA E attractions, ride snow white 3 times in the same mine car, and sometimes HM twice, all of that accomplished would make my whole day complete , such is how I value touring at Disneyland

 

[lcp9]

I don't solely depend on crowd predictions but I use them with a lot of other information. School breaks, half marathon weekends, special events, convention center events - I check those out and then look at crowd predictions to see if there's anything I'm missing. If there is some sort of special event going on, I would depend on predictors to be accurate - I just wouldn't go. Hahaha. We have never really been disappointed with crowds doing this - it's usually relatively light. We went once on a half weekend, and even though we expected it to be a 9 or 10 - NEVER AGAIN.

 

[Lesley Wake]

I went on Memorial Day (the actual day) 2 yrs ago. It was only a few days after Paint the Night and new fireworks started. It was definitely crowded but doable. You just have to be willing to wait in the lines and optimize FPs wisely. We were in a group of 12 adults and we hit everything we were interested in. We also got to see fireworks from an area just south of the Hub. So even if crowd calendars are insane, if you push through, it works!

 

[DLRExpert]

I tell people to always assume it will be crowded when you go.

If the crowd isn't there then consider that a plus. There is rarely an offseason at Disneyland.

The best way to nullify any crowd is to get to the parks before opening and use Fastpass system the correct way.

 

[The_Olivas_4]

Planning a First Time trip Sept 29-30th. I was hoping for lower crowds since school is be back in session, and Halloween activities start in October.

 

[tlovesdis]

Planning a First Time trip Sept 29-30th. I was hoping for lower crowds since school is be back in session, and Halloween activities start in October.

The Halloween festivities will start in September and chances are the first party will be Friday September 23rd or 30th. I believe Halloween usually starts around the 12th or so. We went one year the weekend it started (didn't know that when we planned the trip) and it was crazy busy not to mention over 100 degrees every day!

 

[EmmersIsTheMommy]

Totally agree! We were in the parks Friday April 20 through Tuesday April 25 which included Dapper Day weekend. Friday-Sunday were not bad at all and Monday and Tuesday were much worse. Of course the crowd calendars predicted the opposite.

We were there from April 24. I thought Monday and Tuesday were great! That wednesday was a NIGHTMARE tho. Then Thurs and Friday were fine. I use it as a point of reference and then buckle up and hope for the best.

 

[The_Olivas_4]

The Halloween festivities will start in September and chances are the first party will be Friday September 23rd or 30th. I believe Halloween usually starts around the 12th or so. We went one year the weekend it started (didn't know that when we planned the trip) and it was crazy busy not to mention over 100 degrees every day!

The 100 degrees won't bother us too much, coming from AZ, but being a first trip with my DD5, I was really hoping for lower crowds .

 

[Markolodeon]

The impression I'm getting is the least crowded days are the local AP blackout dates. For example Saturday June 3rd will be considerably less busy than Sunday the 4th. If you're not a local AP holder then going blackout days may mean the lowest crowds.