Crowd Levels - Rapid Drop

[NaturalNine]

Hi All

Experienced Dis'er here but hoping for some local knowledge

I'm just messing around with dates for our April Vacation currently, trying to maximise our 14 day window to use the passes, as well as work around our Disney Cruise and some other events later in April.

I've noticed that (According to TouringPlans) it is predicted that Friday April 12th will be quite a bit quieter than Saturday April 13 - Although I was of the belief that Saturdays were generally quieter than a Friday?

I would normally just plan to go Friday the 12th, however it has an implication later in the vacation. If we go Friday the 12th, it means we can't go Saturday 27th (Which seems to be a very quiet day with only 4/10 at DL and 3/10 at DCA), We'll need to go on Friday 26th which is busier in general but particularly at DL (7/10).

So my question is two part:

Do you agree with TP's prediction that Friday the 12th should be quieter than Saturday 13th?

Why would the crowd levels drop so dramatically with Thursday 25th being a "9" resort wide, dropping to only a "4" on Saturday 27th?


P.S - Yes I know Disney is busy all the time these days, and yes I know that we are crystal balling here

 

[Steven G]

I wouldn’t put any credence to anything on touringplans for dL. I’ve seen many times where after the day passes, it went from a 4 to an 8, or vice versa, or even worse.

Best advice I can give is to plan your vacation to where it makes the most sense for you.

I use the site for planning, but I’ve been burned to many times by their estimates.

 

[wdwfan22]

Touring Plans are notoriously wrong for DL crowd level predictions. I look at the wait times all the time and DL is the hardest place to predict. I agree with the PP, just go when it makes sense for you. And enjoy!

 

[Christin82]

We were there recently on a Saturday that was predicted to be a 9 by Touring Plans, but it ended up a 3 due to rain. The Thursday prior (our first day in the parks) was the busiest of all 5 days, to the point that Magic Morning was overrun and a complete bust, but it was predicted to be the least busy of the 5 days. It was labeled a 4 on TP and “Ghost Town” on another site. Every day of our trip, the crowds ended up being between 2 and 6 points off from what was predicted, which is quite a sizable margin of error when we’re talking about a 10-point scale. The estimates are very rough. I do consult them for fun, but they’ve ended up being completely inaccurate nearly every time, so I see them as mostly for entertainment value, like a mood ring or a fortune-telling goldfish. Researching the crowds adds to the anticipation, but that’s about it. I don’t blame the Touring Plans folks. It’s a great site with useful features. It’s just that DL crowds have gotten highly unpredictable. I would choose based on what works with your schedule and/or which dates result in the most affordable flights/hotel.

 

[NaturalNine]

Thanks all Yeah I've found them unreliable in the past, which is why I reached out rather than taking them for gospel.

 

[Diszona]

I agree with what others have said. Touringplans got this week completely backwards, the busiest days were Monday and Tuesday and it got less toward the end of the week (today wasn't bad at all)

 

[lostangel52577]

The weekend of April 13-14 I believe is Dapper Days. Always avoid Dapper Days if you hate crowds, but it’s why Saturday would be busier than Friday. The week leading up to Saturday the 27 is the week after Easter, a busy vacation week, so the weekend will usually see a slight drop as people on vacation leave. These two weeks surround Easter and will probably just be busy.

 

[Winnowill]

Saturday the 27th all APs below Signature are blocked out, so that may be a contributing factor.

 

[cindyfan]

The weekend of April 13-14 I believe is Dapper Days. Always avoid Dapper Days if you hate crowds, but it’s why Saturday would be busier than Friday. The week leading up to Saturday the 27 is the week after Easter, a busy vacation week, so the weekend will usually see a slight drop as people on vacation leave. These two weeks surround Easter and will probably just be busy.

Do Dapper Days really have an impact on the crowds? We will be there April 10-15... actually planned those days and when we saw it was Dapper Days we were excited and got tickets for the expo. Just have never been to Dapper Days and not sure if it really is that busy??

 

[theluckyrabbit]

It is busy in different ways than the norm. Photo op sites will be crowded. Rides that serve as iconic photo ops will be crowded, e.g. the carousel, Mark Twain, tea cups, etc. Walkways may be more crowded because groups move slower in fancy dress and high heels. Lines for M&Gs may be longer. You may witness a few proposals! It may be crowded, but the crowds will look great!

 

[mizlizstl]

I'm visiting Wednesday 4/3 - Friday 4/5 and hoping crowds will be tame. This will be my first spring visit.

 

[lcp9]

Strangely, I guess, TP has always been +/- 1 for us on our trips. I take it with a grain of salt and base most of my decision on objective things like school breaks, other events, etc. It usually ends up working out.

 

[Whistlebee]

I would go with the dates that are best for your schedule. The crowd calendars are notoriously bad for DL. The 13th & 14th is Dapper Weekend but Deluxe and under AP’s are blocked on Saturday so that may help even out the crowds some on the 13th. I would honestly just pick what works best for your schedule.

 

[Howry]

No matter when you go its going to be PACKED. Its always packed now. The only thing that will help with the crowd levels will be rain. So unless you can pick when its going to rain I would just go with what works best with your schedule and expect it to be crowded. Even with crowds it is a lot of fun.