Crowd level projections 3rd week in December

Nancyg56

DIS Veteran
Joined
Aug 17, 2005
Does anyone understand the lower projections for WDW in December? I know that Touring Plans is not an exact science in terms of projecting crowd levels, however the crowd levels are significantly reduced from when I first booked. I am not complaining, however I was expecting them to increase, not decrease. Our dates are 14 through 22, and honestly if they remain in place, they will be lower than other times of the year that we have visited.
 
People waiting to come when Star Wars is open, the higher pricing could have an effect or with the economy doing well, people are visiting other places perhaps.
 
Oh wow-I was coming to this board to see if I could find crowd predictions and/or touring plans for that exact week.
@Nancyg56 your post saved me some time! I assume you are looking at the Touring Plans website?
 
School break could affect it also - a lot of schools won’t be out on break yet that week. Our school happens to be out starting the 17th, but others I’ve looked at don’t start break until the next week, the week of Christmas.
 
Does anyone understand the lower projections for WDW in December? I know that Touring Plans is not an exact science in terms of projecting crowd levels, however the crowd levels are significantly reduced from when I first booked. I am not complaining, however I was expecting them to increase, not decrease. Our dates are 14 through 22, and honestly if they remain in place, they will be lower than other times of the year that we have visited.

The beginning of your week should have lower crowds, and probably some of the lowest of the year. As others have said, schools just aren't out yet. While most people feel it's okay to miss a day or two before Christmas break, I don't know of many that would miss a whole week.

However, by the end of your week, you'll see a significant increase in crowd levels. You'll probably start to notice it on Thur, and if you go to the parks on the 22nd, you'll definitely feel it.
 
My guess is that the crowds will increase quickly through the week. I think Disney believes that too as they have started the Gold AP black out on the 20th. DW and I will probably try and sneak a last before the holiday visit in on Monday.
Wishing you a pixiedust: visit!
 
I know what you mean...seems like the numbers are all over the place. We're there 12/5-12/12. TP today sez 4/1/2/4/4/5/3 for our days. My guess is those numbers will be different tomorrow:). Just gotta go with the flow and enjoy every minute of it.
 
Does anyone understand the lower projections for WDW in December? I know that Touring Plans is not an exact science in terms of projecting crowd levels, however the crowd levels are significantly reduced from when I first booked. I am not complaining, however I was expecting them to increase, not decrease. Our dates are 14 through 22, and honestly if they remain in place, they will be lower than other times of the year that we have visited.
It is the same for the week we are going. Nov 25th to Dec 5th. The numbers from TP are lower than they were earlier this year and lower than last year. I have heard all of the reasons why but I am very skeptical. The numbers they are projecting are even lower than last year and the year before. I think SWGE will bring higher numbers when it opens not necessarily lower numbers for this year. Just my opinion. I will see when we get there. Enjoy your trip.
 
Oh wow-I was coming to this board to see if I could find crowd predictions and/or touring plans for that exact week.
@Nancyg56 your post saved me some time! I assume you are looking at the Touring Plans website?

Yes, I subscribe to TP and have been following the predictions since we began planning.

The beginning of your week should have lower crowds, and probably some of the lowest of the year. As others have said, schools just aren't out yet. While most people feel it's okay to miss a day or two before Christmas break, I don't know of many that would miss a whole week.

However, by the end of your week, you'll see a significant increase in crowd levels. You'll probably start to notice it on Thur, and if you go to the parks on the 22nd, you'll definitely feel it.

I have been on this week before and found the MK non party days to be horrible, however for the most part the rest manageable until the Friday night. My DGD is a senior in HS and while my DD was not happy about her missing a week, this is the only time DGD's godmother and her wife can go, so she is accepting the week. DGD is really on top of her studies though, and has already been looking ahead to preparing.
 
I know what you mean...seems like the numbers are all over the place. We're there 12/5-12/12. TP today sez 4/1/2/4/4/5/3 for our days. My guess is those numbers will be different tomorrow:). Just gotta go with the flow and enjoy every minute of it.

We will be there 12/7-12/12 and I have noticed this from TP as well, not sure I believe it especially for Non MVMCP party days at MK. Going with the flow is our only plan because there is only one thing I love more than Disney, and that’s Christmas.
 
Does anyone understand the lower projections for WDW in December? I know that Touring Plans is not an exact science in terms of projecting crowd levels, however the crowd levels are significantly reduced from when I first booked. I am not complaining, however I was expecting them to increase, not decrease. Our dates are 14 through 22, and honestly if they remain in place, they will be lower than other times of the year that we have visited.


We will be there December 13-20, in the parks the 14th-19th. The last time we were at WDW, my youngest was in Kdg, now he is a freshman in college. His sister is a senior in college and other sister has graduated. This allows us to go a bit earlier than most schools holidays as college finals are finished by mid December.

When I started a rough draft for planning about 5 months ago, TP had numbers from 5-10, now my days are anywhere from 2-7. I do recall reading about TP needing to adjust their formula because large crowds have become the new normal, so TP has to recalculate otherwise all days would be 10s. While HS and EP had my numbers drop by a point or so, it is MK and AK that had account for the big changes, dropping by 3-4 points each day. I’d like these new numbers to be true, but I view them with a bit of skepticism.

While I can’t say we planned each park around those numbers, I do have them in the back of my mind. Because we are all adults, this trip will be very different from the one over a dozen years ago. We typically rope drop DL, but it is so much more convenient since our hotel is a 5 minute walk and both parks are so close. Our trip to WDW this year won’t have us in the parks until late morning most days, FPs for the major rides we want, then depart for TS dinner. We are there for free dining and upgraded one room to DxDP, so we are planning a much more adult focused, leisurely trip. Let’s see how it goes. I understand crowds have increased overall since were there all those years ago, but since we have done DL occasionally during those intervening years, including last December 15, I’m hoping we have a realistic understanding of what to expect. So we will head out there cautiously optimistic, but have a plan well in hand should crowds far exceed expectations.

All of this is a long winded way of sharing your surprise, being somewhat skeptical, but keeping fingers crossed there is some accuracy to these predictions.
 
I would take the TP crowd predictor with a grain of salt. I used it last year for the trip we took the week before Christmas and crowds were definitely heavier than they had predicted. It still wasn't bad (in comparison to Christmas week), but my timing was thrown off a little. That being said, the PP's speculation that less kids are off that week this year is quite possible IMHO. My DS11 always has two weeks off around the Christmas holidays. Last year, his vacation started the week before Christmas, but, because of how Christmas and New Year's land on the calendar this year, his vacation doesn't start until Dec. 22 instead of the week before as it had during the past two years. I'm looking forward to the year it goes back to starting the week before Christmas because I love going to WDW that week! Christmas week - not so much!
 
In more than a dozen trips over the last several years, I've found Touring Plans to underestimate crowd levels every single time. I don't even look at their numbers anymore. Pretty much any time of year, best bet is to expect crowds, go in with a good plan and if crowds are lighter than anticipated, enjoy it :) If it helps, we went those dates last year (and are going same time again this year) and it wasn't too bad.
 
Does anyone understand the lower projections for WDW in December? I know that Touring Plans is not an exact science in terms of projecting crowd levels, however the crowd levels are significantly reduced from when I first booked. I am not complaining, however I was expecting them to increase, not decrease. Our dates are 14 through 22, and honestly if they remain in place, they will be lower than other times of the year that we have visited.

I saw this, also, and wondered about it. That's the week we will be there, so hoping it's pretty close!
 
It is the same for the week we are going. Nov 25th to Dec 5th. The numbers from TP are lower than they were earlier this year and lower than last year. I have heard all of the reasons why but I am very skeptical. The numbers they are projecting are even lower than last year and the year before. I think SWGE will bring higher numbers when it opens not necessarily lower numbers for this year. Just my opinion. I will see when we get there. Enjoy your trip.

I have been the first week of December the past 8/12 years and it is a lovely time to go! Schools aren't out and colleges have finals, so it is lower crowds--just don't expect anything to be a walk on; headliners will still have waits of an hour by noon.
 
I have been the first week of December the past 8/12 years and it is a lovely time to go! Schools aren't out and colleges have finals, so it is lower crowds--just don't expect anything to be a walk on; headliners will still have waits of an hour by noon.
That's exactly what I figured but with the new TP crowd calendars a 1 is still 60 mins or more for the headliners. I just don't think they will be that low but at least it won't be as crowded as Thanksgiving week or Christmas week. I have a good plan going in and I am expecting mod crowds if it is lower I would be happy.
 
We've gone to WDW in early December, usually the first or second week, but sometimes a bit later, for many years. The crowds are very manageable. Even in the third week of December, it should be the same. Crowds won't get really crazy until the weekend before Christmas, when schools get out. Early to mid-week that third week should be fine.
 
Something to know about TP is that you can't compare to previous years anymore and have that be meaningful. They changed their methodology pretty significantly last year. In the past they had an absolute scale. So xx mins = 5, yy mins = 6, etc. Now what the numbers are telling you is how crowded they predict it to be compare to other days in a certain time period (and I forget what that period is - I'm not sure they said what it was). So a 1 now doesn't necessarily equate at all to what a 1 was last year or the year before.

I haven't been around Christmas time but we have gone the same week in early May 3 years in a row. This year was noticably less crowded than both previous years. At the time I thought it was because Toy Story was opening in June but it doesn't seem to be driving big crowds so I'm not sure that explains it. Maybe people are waiting for SW.
 
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