Crowd Calendar Question

[DISness Casual]

I do not have a subscription to Touring Plan. I was googling some other WDW Crowd Calendar sites and I couldn't help notice how different the predictions are for each of them on particularly given days.

Is there a particular subscription-free crowd calendar service that you find more accurate than others? I would be curious to know.

 

[Gehrig1B]

I can't help... I find Touring Plans to be the only consistently accurate crowd calendar, based on up-to-date (since reopening) data. Well worth the subscription.

 

[MousetersInc]

TLDR is that "crowd calendaring" is as inexact a science as meteorology. If we're talking about the broadest strokes, then there are very simple patterns that determine "lots of people" vs "fewer people": more on weekends, holidays, and summer. Fewer in a park that is going to close early for a party like MNSSHP. But when it comes to comparing two weekdays to each other and predicting which park is a 6 out of 10 and which is a 6.5, I wouldn't put too much trust in the granularity of the prediction.

If you don't mind reading lots of words, I like the perspectives at https://www.disneytouristblog.com/when-to-visit-disney-world/. If you want a quick "look, just give me a number," https://www.undercovertourist.com/orlando/crowd-calendar/ has you covered.

 

[Praying Colonel]

I'm a long-time TP.com subscriber and share Gehrig's opinion. They also have a 45-day money-back guarantee.

I also believe a crowd calendar is not nearly as important as using good touring protocol (arrive early, have a plan, etc.).

 

[MousetersInc]

I'm a long-time TP.com subscriber and share Gehrig's opinion. They also have a 45-day money-back guarantee.

I also believe a crowd calendar is not nearly as important as using good touring protocol (arrive early, have a plan, etc.).

Oh yeah, and seconded. I went ahead and bought TP for our first Disney trip and was glad I did. And yes, you can get more done on a busy day by "doing it right" than on a less busy day, "doing it wrong." (The catch: "doing it right" means doing the opposite of what most folks are doing, and there's a reason most folks are doing that. The efficient plan isn't always comfortable!)

 

[_19disnA]

TLDR is that "crowd calendaring" is as inexact a science as meteorology.

I agree, this subject is a constant discussion topic on here. Every site who claims to 'predict' the future obviously uses their own unique formula which is why they are all different. Once you realize that trying to predict future, largely random events, is never an exact science you can decide for yourself how you use them or if you use them at all. Anyone can develop a formula to predict any number of things, but that doesn't mean it will reliably provide accurate results.

The park reservation system obviously provides more future info to Disney, but they are never going to share that with any 3rd party. Expect the parks to be busy. Peak days like major holidays will always tend to be busier then other times of the year.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I'm a long time member of Touring Plans and find them to be most helpful while planning and while in the parks. Well worth the subscription fee.

 

[Gehrig1B]

I understand how some doubt TPs accuracy. Please do a little research on the company's scientific approach based on data acquisition and analysis. I agree that nothing is perfect, but TPs product is much better than any others I have tried. I appreciate their scientific approach.

We are yet to see how the reservation system will affect crowd sizes over the long haul. I can only react anecdotally but it appears Disney is using the system to drive crowds across the parks and there is no defined "capacity" for any park on any given day. I have been at MK on days that were closed to reservations and the crowds (wait times) "seemed" quite manageable then on other days with park availability the place seemed jammed with parkgoers.

 

[DISness Casual]

Thank you for all the tips, everyone! I just subscribed to TP. Very helpful!

 

[Upatnoon]

The parks are always busy.

Spend your time researching how you plan to tour the parks as opposed to trying to pick a lower "number."

Disney also charges more for theme park tickets on busier times.

 

[Gehrig1B]

The parks are always busy.

This is just not accurate.

We were there in September and the parks were not crowded, many of the standby lines were under 20 minutes in the morning... Animal Kingdom was especially empty, FoP standby line was about 45 minutes. In fact, we did not purchase Genie+ the entire week we were there.

 

[NavyDad]

I do not have a subscription to Touring Plan. I was googling some other WDW Crowd Calendar sites and I couldn't help notice how different the predictions are for each of them on particularly given days.

Is there a particular subscription-free crowd calendar service that you find more accurate than others? I would be curious to know.

In the old days Josh (RIP) at Easy WDW had a pretty good free calendar. I have been a long time TP subscriber and it was nice back then to compare the calendars to see where they agreed and disagreed. Since then I have never been able to find a good free one. There is some debate about the accuracy of crowd calendars but if you want a good one, TP is pretty much the gold standard at this point.

 

[NavyDad]

Thank you for all the tips, everyone! I just subscribed to TP. Very helpful!

Just want to say, TP has a lot of good tools beyond the calendar. You should check everything out.

 

[lentesta]

Thank you all for your kind words.

Here are the questions I ask when looking at crowd calendars:

• Does the calendar explain what a crowd level of "5" (or "Yellow" or "Busy") means?
• Does the calendar say how it checks its own predictions?
• Does the site show those predictions-versus-reality results?
• Is it possible to verify those results independently?

Which is just a four-point plan for asking "How do you know when you're wrong?"

 

[jaysmom4285]

TP does explain what all their numbers mean, in great detail.
I'm not sure if they specify exactly how they check their own predictions, but on each individual crowd calendar day, they will have a recap of how they did the previous day and how close reality came to their predictions.
I'm not sure there's any way to verify the results independently. Their summary of how they did the day before will show how right or wrong they were.

 

[gharter]

Another long time TP subscriber and worth the money.
However, since the shutdown, park reservations, etc, I have not really found any of the crowd predictors to be accurate. All of the previous data, doesn't work any more. Currently, the parks are much more crowded from previous lost trips, international travel starting up again, and many restaurants and some attractions still closed.

 

[SLThomas318]

LOVE touring plans! The crowd calendar is helpful, but I find the ability to make customized touring plans the best.

 

[MousetersInc]

Btw, a tip I found helpful in zeroing in on travel dates: Look at what Disney charges for hotels or park tickets, and use that as a metric of attendance. They want to attract people off of the "easy" dates like Spring Break, so whatever dates have the lowest prices are the ones Disney expects to naturally have the lowest attendance, and they're trying to make them more attractive. (After all, if anybody has a vested interest in predicting this accurately, it's them!)

Another note: It's useful to know what we mean, or what matters to us when we talk about attendance. Actual wait times and crowd levels don't always correlate precisely. Issues like staffing, hours, etc. can mean that a park might "feel crowded" but actually have reasonable wait times—or the opposite!

 

[Gehrig1B]

TP does explain what all their numbers mean, in great detail.

@lentesta is the owner of Touring Plans...

He was responding to the thread with how they look at their calendars with the 4-point response above

Thank you all for your kind words.

Here are the questions I ask when looking at crowd calendars:

• Does the calendar explain what a crowd level of "5" (or "Yellow" or "Busy") means?
• Does the calendar say how it checks its own predictions?
• Does the site show those predictions-versus-reality results?
• Is it possible to verify those results independently?

Which is just a four-point plan for asking "How do you know when you're wrong?"

 

[J-Dog]

Another long time TP subscriber and worth the money.
However, since the shutdown, park reservations, etc, I have not really found any of the crowd predictors to be accurate. All of the previous data, doesn't work any more. Currently, the parks are much more crowded from previous lost trips, international travel starting up again, and many restaurants and some attractions still closed.

I agree that TP has good features, and is generally worth the subscription fee, but during our last WDW trip in October 2021 (granted, it was during pandemic reopening), their crowd calendar was WAY off. Like, a MK day they marked as a 6 was a 5:00pm walk-on for HM, followed by a day that they marked as a 1 that was easily 3 times busier.

I don't put much stock in crowd calendars.