coronavirus

[leeniewdw]

I suppose it depends all manner of things - how long the flight is, is the infected person/carrier walking around/sat in a row of 3/coughing etc etc but I'd imagine a 9 hour flight from Europe to the U.S would almost certainly mean someone with the virus will infect others.

Agree! I suspect that they make these decisions on probability. In the example of this 2nd patient in NC, they flew from Italy to JFK and then JFK to Raleigh. They specifically talked about the small regional jets that go from NYC airports to RDU. That's when she talked about the specific number of seats/rows that they deem at risk. My takeaway is that they aren't going to say "this patient was on flight DL123" and freak out everyone from that flight and even if you were on his flight, unless you were in those X number of seats, they probably aren't going to be calling you.

 

[GranJan1]

I guess they’re being pretty inconsistent about the sanitizing. We saw one person with a mask at Epcot yesterday. She looked like she wore it normally. It was a fancy designed one and she did look rather frail.

We’ve got a trip booked in May, just made our fast passes this morning. It’s hard to get excited about a trip that I’m beginning to wonder if it’s going to happen. I’ve been reading so much it’s stressing me out. Besides the finger scan, I’ve thought about the bag checking. Having someone put their hands through everything in your bag after handling other bags always bothered me. They wear gloves to protect themselves but they don’t change them between bags.

 

[DisTXMom]

We’ve got a trip booked in May, just made our fast passes this morning. It’s hard to get excited about a trip that I’m beginning to wonder if it’s going to happen. I’ve been reading so much it’s stressing me out. Besides the finger scan, I’ve thought about the bag checking. Having someone put their hands through everything in your bag after handling other bags always bothered me. They wear gloves to protect themselves but they don’t change them between bags.

there are people there every day with Flu and Norovirus and all sorts of other stuff. Take the precautions you normally do and wash your hands- abs have fun

 

[TresGriffin]

So, I actually decided to get myself a plane ticket from ATL to MCO for my April trip, since at $118 round trip, the ticket was essentially the same price as the total of parking at my resort for 4 nights + enough gas to come down from Atlanta and back. Might as well let Delta and Magical Express do the work while I sit back and relax if it’s gonna cost me the same thing.

However, I did something I never usually do when buying plane tickets and thats buying the trip insurance, just as a safeguard in the highly unlikely event that a total shutdown of the resort happens.

Other than that, the best I can do is bring plenty of hand sanitizer and Lysol to go and what not and just use the proper precautions.

 

[Amylc]

there are people there every day with Flu and Norovirus and all sorts of other stuff. Take the precautions you normally do and wash your hands- abs have fun

Exactly

 

[choirfarm]

I hope all o fyou that have trips will have a great time. You will probably be fine. My point is not stay at home and don't go out. I am leaving the country tomorrow. I am not letting it stop me. My ONLY point was that at some point in this crisis, a cast member will get it and Disney will have to close for awhile to clean everything and to stop spread. Don't know when it will be. But I'm pretty sure it will happen. I am NOT saying you shouldn't go if you want.

 

[Friendly Frog]

Some things to think about.

Do I think that the government wants to reduce the economic impact and to prevent panics and runs on goods? Do I think the government would be willing to down play the threat or withhold some information in order to do so?

Have we ever before in our lifetime seen our government, (local and federal level) react to an illness outbreak like they are reacting now? ( Why are they reacting so strongly to THIS illness?)

We know the best way to spread a commutable illness is for people to travel and interact in large groups. We also know the best way to contain a new illness is to quarantine until we can get it under control, so;

Do we have an obligation then to think of others and not just our own health? Should we all do what we can to reduce risks and to contain or at least slow the spread into new communities? ( Communities where others at higher risk will be exposed.)

 

[godisney14]

They wear gloves to protect themselves but they don’t change them between bags.

Why do you think scrubs or coats are worn in the hospital (besides as an identifier)? We have a rule at home, no family or friend can come into the house without taking off their scrub or coat first. Used to have friends in school just sit on the couch after their rotation/shift without changing....gross.

 

[scard192]

We’ve got a trip booked in May, just made our fast passes this morning. It’s hard to get excited about a trip that I’m beginning to wonder if it’s going to happen. I’ve been reading so much it’s stressing me out. Besides the finger scan, I’ve thought about the bag checking. Having someone put their hands through everything in your bag after handling other bags always bothered me. They wear gloves to protect themselves but they don’t change them between bags.

we are supposed to go the 3rd week in April. I have saved for years to take my family on this trip to celebrate my retirement. was thrilled a couple of weeks ago to get great FP+s. now just worry and dread, no excitement most days. My SIL and DGD have asthma, their health is a concern.

 

[Haley R]

We’ve got a trip booked in May, just made our fast passes this morning. It’s hard to get excited about a trip that I’m beginning to wonder if it’s going to happen. I’ve been reading so much it’s stressing me out. Besides the finger scan, I’ve thought about the bag checking. Having someone put their hands through everything in your bag after handling other bags always bothered me. They wear gloves to protect themselves but they don’t change them between bags.

Honestly I wouldn’t be worried at all. Once I got there yesterday I didn’t even think about any of that. I went about my day and just made sure to wash my hands after using the bathroom. We didn’t use any hand sanitizer while we were there

 

[eeyoreandtink]

IFR is the measurement of deceased / total infected (asymptomatic + symptomatic) versus CFR which is typically deceased / symptomatic cases. The distinction is complicated because different organizations/studies also define what constitutes infected or symptomatic cases differently.

Naive CFR might be a more precise term than IFR, depending on exactly what South Korea is using for testing criteria.

None of these are really good metrics for laypeople, though. It's easy to think that they provide a personal risk of death if you're diagnosed, and they really don't. Especially at this point in the analysis.

(edited for clarity)

I am familiar with native CFR, that’s why I asked. That’s exactly my point. People are freaking out and basing decisions on metrics they don’t really understand. As you are defining it, the closer you get to an IFR, the more accurate a metric you are getting, but I don’t think anyone really has an accurate metric at this point. All of them are inflated because so many cases are going undiagnosed.

 

[bagpiper]

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

 

[Haley R]

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

I still don’t think we can go off that 3.4% when we don’t know how many people have actually had COVID-19 with little to no symptoms. That percentage could be much lower if we actually knew that number. I’m not going to let that 3.4% scare me because it only accounts for reported cases

 

[godisney14]

I still don’t think we can go off that 3.4% when we don’t know how many people have actually had COVID-19 with little to no symptoms. That percentage could be much lower if we actually knew that number. I’m not going to let that 3.4% scare me because it only accounts for reported cases

You also don’t know the outcome of every ongoing case. You cannot include active cases (with unknown outcomes) in a case fatality ratio statistic, which is what everyone is mistaking and referring it as mortality rate.

 

[godisney14]

Anyone planning on going on a cruise? Don’t want to scare you, but the reason why I would, personally, skip a cruise: The Princess Cruise ship being held offshore has ~3,500 people on board. On Thursday, 46 people were tested, and result came out next day showing 21 were positive for Cov.
That ship is the definition of a petri dish.

 

[quandrea]

we are supposed to go the 3rd week in April. I have saved for years to take my family on this trip to celebrate my retirement. was thrilled a couple of weeks ago to get great FP+s. now just worry and dread, no excitement most days. My SIL and DGD have asthma, their health is a concern.

Right there with you. We cancelled yesterday. We were booked for the run Disney weekend—my first half marathon! Great fast passes, amazing ADrs. Dh has asthma and hypertension. Just thought it wasn’t worth the risk—especially being at races with 1000s of people. So much crowding.

 

[quandrea]

Anyone planning on going on a cruise? Don’t want to scare you, but the reason why I would, personally, skip a cruise: The Princess Cruise ship being held offshore has ~3,500 people on board. On Thursday, 46 people were tested, and result came out next day showing 21 were positive for Cov.
That ship is the definition of a petri dish.

We cruised a lot in the past fifteen or so years—with our kids. It was a great way to see Europe, Russia, Canada, Alaska without the need to pack up every few days. Won’t ever get on a ship again.

 

[bagpiper]

I still don’t think we can go off that 3.4% when we don’t know how many people have actually had COVID-19 with little to no symptoms. That percentage could be much lower if we actually knew that number. I’m not going to let that 3.4% scare me because it only accounts for reported cases

The Bottom Line, this is different

100% Totally Vulnerable Population (no vaccines)
Highly Infectious (more then Ebola,SARS,MERS)
Higher Fatality Rate (then the flu)

What will make this time worse is if your perceived low personal risk based on your health will make one less careful to prevent its spread

The normally healthy infected carriers, who may not be symptomatic will have the greatest potential to spread the virus and be the cause of transmission and possibly the death of those who are at risk with compromised health issues

We need to think socially and not personally to have the ability to slow the transmission of this global outbreak. By acting like everyone is infected, it will change our behaviors to hopefully curtail the spread so very little get infected

This virus may be with us for a long time, if not forever and a vaccine is extremely important to develop as quickly as possible- hopefully based on our personal actions and upcoming warmer weather may buy some time until a vaccine is distributed

 

[tinkerhon]

I still don’t think we can go off that 3.4% when we don’t know how many people have actually had COVID-19 with little to no

Have to agree here - it's really hard to go by strictly percentages - if you go to the CDC website, they state flu is much worse ( as of today)

 

[Spridell]

Definitely CAN NOT go off that 3.4% number because there will be thousands and thousands of people who get it and will never be tested.

But, at the same time, @bagpiper is right. Those Thousands who do get it with such mild symptoms will go on with their lives like nothing wrong and could spread it to the elderly and sick.