Coronavirus will become insignificant in a month

[BabybetterDisney]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.

 

[KPeterso]

Don't agree at all. Wow! We are no where near herd immunity as many have sheltered in place for months and had no exposure yet. They are also talking second and third waves. It is bad where I am.

 

[I_love_Cruising]

The curb in those countries went down, when they took strong measures to prevent spreed. It did not go away on it's own. In fact it never did go away. Most countries experience raising numbers after a few weeks of low numbers.
I don't know where you got these numbers, but we are all experiencing a second surge.

 

[Karin1984]

And why did the surge stop, how did that happen?

For your information, Sweden did go into lockdown, not a full one like many Arjan countries or Italy or Belgium, but they do have the closure of non-essential businesses and schools etc. More similar to what we do in the Netherlands.

According to the NY Times, due to Sweden only having a population of 10 million people, they have 40% more deaths that the US.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html

 

[KayMichigan]

I think we're still in the first wave. We had over 71,000 new cases yesterday, very close to the all time high.

 

[DisneyOma]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.

You may be a mathematician, but your logic presented here is weak, IMO.

Numbers decreased after strict lock down/quarantine. Numbers are skyrocketing in areas that are ignoring a cautionary opening. In order to get those numbers back down, they need to go back to strict lock down. The two month curve is what it takes to get it under control during lockdown/shelter at home/quarantine/whatever you want to call it. So no, COVID-19 isn't going away anytime soon unless the idiots who are ignoring it either get it and suffer, or we go back to strict lockdown, all because of the idiots ignoring precautions.

 

[J'aime Paris]

Your title was great click bait, I admit!
Not sure you are correct, but its nice to dream...

 

[Allison]

Try again.

 

[MrsBooch]

but guys.....her DH doesnt know anyone who died from it so that means it's almost done! Plus, she's a mathematician! So you know...credible source!

 

[BostonEd]

As a mathematician, you must appreciate that one of the most dangerous aspects of this particular virus is how unpredictably it spreads. So any prediction can easily be blown out of the water.

Also, I'm sick of people focusing on "death rate". (and your rate is too low, anyway) There are two major effects from getting sick, even if you survive: 1) hospitals are overwhelmed. One reason the death rate has gone down is that hospitals have been able to try different things when they're not in panic mode.

OK, say you're selfish and don't care. Let's focus on you. 2) This disease really sucks! Even if you survive, you could very well have life-long negative affects. And do you really want go onto a ventilator? Do you know how hideous that is? "Oh, but even then you're only talking about around 5%!" (probably more) Really? You want to take those odds?

 

[RamblingMad]

Let’s come back to this thread in two months and talk about this prediction.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Bless your heart.

 

[monsterkitty]

but guys.....her DH doesnt know anyone who died from it so that means it's almost done! Plus, she's a mathematician! So you know...credible source!

Not only does her husband not know anyone who has died from it, he doesn't even know anyone who has had it! It's amazing!

Unfortunately, we just found out that another one of our students lost her mother last week to COVID. The mom was a mathematician. I wonder what she would think of these numbers put up by the OP.

 

[RamblingMad]

Not only does her husband not know anyone who has died from it, he doesn't even know anyone who has had it! It's amazing!

Unfortunately, we just found out that another one of our students lost her mother last week to COVID. The mom was a mathematician. I wonder what she would think of these numbers put up by the OP.

Serology tests are coming in around 5-6% here in AZ. It’s very likely to not know anyone who has had it with that low level of spread.

 

[mjkacmom]

As one of the initial hotspots, I can tell you that the only reason our numbers are lower is because of lockdowns. Parks closed, masks were mandatory, doctor’s offices closed... Right now bars, gyms, indoor dining, churches - still closed. For doctors appointments I’ve waited in my car until called. Hair salons just opened with limited capacity. I have to bring my dog to the vet, I won’t be allowed inside. I’ve known dozens who’ve had it, 3 personally who died (my towns death count is 56).

 

[msjprincess]

Nope. Not going to happen when some of the states surging are doing absolutely nothing to control it.

Other countries and states, like NY and Italy started to decline after a month because they took drastic measures to slow down the spread.

I have no idea what point you're trying to make with this

I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid

 

[rigs32]

Even if I don't die, I'd still like to avoid permanent lung damage....

 

[Debbie Jean]

Not only does her husband not know anyone who has died from it, he doesn't even know anyone who has had it! It's amazing!

Unfortunately, we just found out that another one of our students lost her mother last week to COVID. The mom was a mathematician. I wonder what she would think of these numbers put up by the OP.

Since March, at my north Jersey university we have lost 2 faculty, 1 staff member and 3 students. I couldn't even begin to give you a count of the number of people who have had Covid.... including me.

I watch other states going through this now and it makes me want to weep... so much unnecessary suffering.

Don't know where you live OP.. i'm thinking lala land

 

[wvjules]

It won't just magically go away.

 

[kdonnel]

If the CDC's estimate of 10 unknown infections for every known holds true, Florida is experiencing 100,000+ new cases a day. It does seem at that rate there will be a loss of potential hosts to infect in a one to two month period.