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CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

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True, available appointments by itself won’t necessarily mean change in demand. But, when a place is opening up eligibility to more people and the hours of operation do not change, and you still have open slots, then that is a clear sign of waning demand. This is happening in CA. Many counties opened eligibility to 16+ within the past week. (CA statewide opens to 16+ this week). Yet, one can get same day walk-in or online sign-ups now in some counties.
 
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Here in Western NY there is still high demand for appointments. I have been able to secure appointments for people within 48 hours though. I look at that as a good thing. We have had our numbers climb in the last week though so that is a bit troubling and we have also had people state that they will not get their children vaccinated. Everyone in my house is vaccinated expect my 20 year old and that is because she attends school in PA and plays Lacrosse. Her campus offered a clinic but the second shot was due during their playoffs so she opted to wait until she comes home in early May to get hers.
 
I don't know where in Louisiana your friend is, but here in NOLA they're speculating that while some is likely hesitancy, part of it is just that we have SO many appointments available now. Whether you want a hospital or a pharmacy or a mass walk-in or a mass drive-through...we even have bars doing "a shot for a shot" pop-up events. There's only so many people who can/want to get vaccinated on a particular day. But time will tell, I guess. As of last Thursday's update we were at just under 40% with at least one dose, so hopefully demand will remain reasonably strong for a while.

She's near Baton Rouge, but the article took a statewide focus. I do think in urban areas in particular open appointments are more reflective of increasing supply, slow communication about improved availability, and a certain degree of discouraged people who stopped checking as often out of frustration with the difficulty in finding an appointment, and that as word spreads that it is easy(er) to get one now, demand will bump up as those who want the vaccine but not enough to stalk appointment sites start booking.

Yes. We WILL hit it. We haven't yet.

Like most things in the US, I suspect this will be heavily regional. In the Detroit metro, demand still appears to outstrip supply, particularly at the walk-in clinics and at those providers where you have some say in what time you book an appointment for. But in Michigan broadly, the advice that if you can't find a vaccine in your own community/county, just head for the closest "red" area and you'll find one without delay is holding very true. But I do think timing, registration methods, and communication are bigger issues than hesitancy right now.

For example, my county had a lot of unfilled appointments this week... the same week vaccination opened up to everyone 16+ regardless of health or profession. But those newly-qualified people couldn't even add themselves to the pre-registration queue until Monday when they became eligible, because before that the pre-screener questions shut them out, so it will probably take a couple of weeks for the full impact of the eligibility change to show up in appointment volume. It seems like it would have been better if they'd done what Meijer did and let everyone pre-register so that they could be contacted when their group came up. Since that's the only wait list I was on that I haven't gotten a call from, I assume they've had no lack of demand using that approach.

True, available appointments by itself won’t necessarily mean change in demand. But, when a place is opening up eligibility to more people and the hours of operation do not change, and you still have open slots, then that is a clear sign of waning demand. This is happening in CA. Many counties opened eligibility to 16+ within the past week. (CA statewide opens to 16+ this week). Yet, one can get same day walk-in or online sign-ups now in some counties.

California is another example of what I was talking about above, though. My daughter got her vaccine over a month ago, when they opened up to food industry workers, but the screener tools on the major sites wouldn't let her book when the announcement was made that they were expanding to her group. She had to wait until the first day she was actually eligible just to try for an appointment, and even then, it depended on the provider. CVS updated their criteria before MyTurn did, but Walgreens and Safeway were both still using tighter restrictions that didn't include the newly eligible groups. So some areas opened eligibility to 16+ this week... but this week's appointments were opened up last week and probably didn't allow those who just now became eligible to book them, so the impact of the expanded eligibility won't start to show up until next week.

I also think the fact that the difficulty in getting appointments has gotten so much press that people aren't thinking to look for last-minute or walk-up availability. You don't try to get tickets at the gate if you heard that a concert sold out in minutes, you know? So as unfilled appointments become the headlines and the nightly news segments, more people who want to be vaccinated but are in no hurry will start looking at their options.
 


Here's the impact of vaccinating: In Ohio, the older the group, the greater its hospitalizations have fallen. In the last 45 days,

Age 40-49 are down 36%.
50-59 down 47%
60-69 down 53%
70-79 down 66%
80 and over down 75%.
 
I think we're starting to see this in several states, particularly in the South in states with less dense populations.
If this is the case then I hope they start sending more vaccines to my neck of the woods since my husband had to sign up with the neighbor state to get one despite being 1c. He can't get one local.
 
She's near Baton Rouge, but the article took a statewide focus. I do think in urban areas in particular open appointments are more reflective of increasing supply, slow communication about improved availability, and a certain degree of discouraged people who stopped checking as often out of frustration with the difficulty in finding an appointment, and that as word spreads that it is easy(er) to get one now, demand will bump up as those who want the vaccine but not enough to stalk appointment sites start booking.



Like most things in the US, I suspect this will be heavily regional. In the Detroit metro, demand still appears to outstrip supply, particularly at the walk-in clinics and at those providers where you have some say in what time you book an appointment for. But in Michigan broadly, the advice that if you can't find a vaccine in your own community/county, just head for the closest "red" area and you'll find one without delay is holding very true. But I do think timing, registration methods, and communication are bigger issues than hesitancy right now.

For example, my county had a lot of unfilled appointments this week... the same week vaccination opened up to everyone 16+ regardless of health or profession. But those newly-qualified people couldn't even add themselves to the pre-registration queue until Monday when they became eligible, because before that the pre-screener questions shut them out, so it will probably take a couple of weeks for the full impact of the eligibility change to show up in appointment volume. It seems like it would have been better if they'd done what Meijer did and let everyone pre-register so that they could be contacted when their group came up. Since that's the only wait list I was on that I haven't gotten a call from, I assume they've had no lack of demand using that approach.



California is another example of what I was talking about above, though. My daughter got her vaccine over a month ago, when they opened up to food industry workers, but the screener tools on the major sites wouldn't let her book when the announcement was made that they were expanding to her group. She had to wait until the first day she was actually eligible just to try for an appointment, and even then, it depended on the provider. CVS updated their criteria before MyTurn did, but Walgreens and Safeway were both still using tighter restrictions that didn't include the newly eligible groups. So some areas opened eligibility to 16+ this week... but this week's appointments were opened up last week and probably didn't allow those who just now became eligible to book them, so the impact of the expanded eligibility won't start to show up until next week.

I also think the fact that the difficulty in getting appointments has gotten so much press that people aren't thinking to look for last-minute or walk-up availability. You don't try to get tickets at the gate if you heard that a concert sold out in minutes, you know? So as unfilled appointments become the headlines and the nightly news segments, more people who want to be vaccinated but are in no hurry will start looking at their options.

But, opening up a new eligibility group does not explain entirely your idea. Since we (CA) were all open to 50+ for a couple weeks now, one would expect the appointments would still be full. That age group makes up close to 20% of the 16+ yo population here, or close to 6 million people.
So far, 8 million have been fully vaccinated in total in CA.
For reference, about 22 million people have been eligible between everyone in Phase 1 and 50+, not including however many 16+ who were eligible since last week. If even just 1/3 of the 16 to 50 years old group are eligible now, that’s at least 6 million more. Give or take some.
In total, with at the very least 28 million eligible so far, we shouldn’t have any vaccination openings if (lack of) demand wasn’t a factor.
 
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The problem with vaccinations seems to be three populations: young adults, minority populations, and rural populations. All three have very different problems. But they need to be addressed to get us to herd immunity.
 
Reviewed the Covid 19 website and saw there were 64K new cases on Sat and only 48K new cases on Sunday--has the surge finally reversed? Hopefully, this is the case. But I guess the gloom and doomers will find something to complain about.
Yes, that Sunday number is much lower than the Saturday number but that is almost always the case. New cases reported this past Sunday were higher than they have been in at least five Sundays. The reporting this week has been playing a bit of catch up from Easter so it I think the numbers for the week we are in now will be a better gage of where we are. The seven day average for everything but deaths (cases, % positive, hospitalized) is higher than it was a month ago. The good news is that this past Saturday’s numbers were almost identical to the previous Saturday so maybe we will see a bit of a leveling off in metrics this week and then hopefully a decline. Keeping my fingers crossed!
 
Yes, that Sunday number is much lower than the Saturday number but that is almost always the case. New cases reported this past Sunday were higher than they have been in at least five Sundays. The reporting this week has been playing a bit of catch up from Easter so it I think the numbers for the week we are in now will be a better gage of where we are. The seven day average for everything but deaths (cases, % positive, hospitalized) is higher than it was a month ago. The good news is that this past Saturday’s numbers were almost identical to the previous Saturday so maybe we will see a bit of a leveling off in metrics this week and then hopefully a decline. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Worth noting that yesterday was the lowest reported deaths on record during the entire pandemic! 7 day death avg continues to fall, approaching mid October #s and continuing to drop fast.
 
Looks like MI will likely shutdown again in the near future.

Where did you get that idea? Our governor all but ruled out the possibility on Friday, and as far as I know she hasn't said anything to contradict herself since then. She asked people to voluntarily "pause" indoor dining, secondary schools and youth activities for a couple of weeks, and I'm surprised you can't hear the people around me laughing at that request from where you're at. But cases and positivity rates have both ticked slightly downward the last few days, leading some to speculate that we've (once again) peaked. Personally, I'm skeptical - weekend numbers are often lower, so it would take another 2-3 days of lower numbers to convince me of any sort of change in the trend. But I will say that my county appears to have plateaued at around 170 cases per 100K per day - cases certainly aren't going down, but the daily totals have been flat for the last week.
 
Where did you get that idea? Our governor all but ruled out the possibility on Friday, and as far as I know she hasn't said anything to contradict herself since then. She asked people to voluntarily "pause" indoor dining, secondary schools and youth activities for a couple of weeks, and I'm surprised you can't hear the people around me laughing at that request from where you're at. But cases and positivity rates have both ticked slightly downward the last few days, leading some to speculate that we've (once again) peaked. Personally, I'm skeptical - weekend numbers are often lower, so it would take another 2-3 days of lower numbers to convince me of any sort of change in the trend. But I will say that my county appears to have plateaued at around 170 cases per 100K per day - cases certainly aren't going down, but the daily totals have been flat for the last week.
They're talking now about surging some at home test kits and/or vaccines to Michigan. Sounds like a great idea to me.
 
Where did you get that idea? Our governor all but ruled out the possibility on Friday, and as far as I know she hasn't said anything to contradict herself since then. She asked people to voluntarily "pause" indoor dining, secondary schools and youth activities for a couple of weeks, and I'm surprised you can't hear the people around me laughing at that request from where you're at. But cases and positivity rates have both ticked slightly downward the last few days, leading some to speculate that we've (once again) peaked. Personally, I'm skeptical - weekend numbers are often lower, so it would take another 2-3 days of lower numbers to convince me of any sort of change in the trend. But I will say that my county appears to have plateaued at around 170 cases per 100K per day - cases certainly aren't going down, but the daily totals have been flat for the last week.

She asked people to take personal responsibility, which I know will fail. She asked for more vaccines. She was told no. The CDC told her today to shutdown to flatten the curve.

You’re going to have to shutdown to bring your numbers down.
 
She asked people to take personal responsibility, which I know will fail. She asked for more vaccines. She was told no. The CDC told her today to shutdown to flatten the curve.

You’re going to have to shutdown to bring your numbers down.

There's no point in shutting down. In the parts of the state where people would actually listen, most things are already closed or extremely limited and masking is well enforced. And in the rest of the state, local authorities have made a show of vowing non-enforcement of any statewide order, so nothing will change. I think that's why she's taking the approach she is, not because she believes it will be adequate or effective but because she's realized the limits of her ability to order anything and isn't willing to go out on that limb for as little benefit as it is likely to have. It is very political so I can't say too much about it here, but another mandated shutdown would likely be the tipping point against her in some important matters the state legislature has on the table.

For better or worse, I think we're where FL was at over the summer - we're just going to ride this wave and hope vaccination and improving weather/the shift to more outdoor living help bring the numbers down without new rules.
 
What is driving the numbers in MI? I know the B117 variant is the majority of the cases, but why is it hitting MI so hard? Are they not getting enough vaccines?
 
What is driving the numbers in MI? I know the B117 variant is the majority of the cases, but why is it hitting MI so hard? Are they not getting enough vaccines?

The vaccination rates in MI look like the averages for the rest of the country. We are no where near where we need to be a slow spread. The positivity rate is double digits too.

The hospitalization rates are back to fall level with more younger people being hospitalized. This isn’t good. I have family there.
 
She asked people to take personal responsibility, which I know will fail. She asked for more vaccines. She was told no. The CDC told her today to shutdown to flatten the curve.

You’re going to have to shutdown to bring your numbers down.

I get the feeling that she's asking the residents of Michigan to take responsibility. I didn't get the impression that she's going to put any new restrictions in place. It'll just cause protests...etc. We're beyond the "new restrictions" phase here in the good ole' US of A.
 
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