Phase III trials as they would be the ones most likely to have enough data to present to the FDA for release.
Yes but Phase III trials take a while to complete:
Started late july- with goal of 30000 in USA
Not all 30k will be signed up at once. If a 2 shot model then need to restart the first participants again in 2 weeks for second shot. (Phizer and bioNtech are 2 shot trials).
Need to then wait a set amount of time in an area with
significant amount of covid spread-Many areas are now seeing
decreases in cases so this could take longer too; and just how do the participants ensure they have adequate amount of exposure to ensure they came in contact with covid if wearing masks and physical distancing? Doesn't do much good for results if participants stay home and never get exposed.
Need to be sure adequate numbers of ethnicity/race/age participants are recruited.
Say all that MAGICALLY happens by August 1st. and there are MIRACULOUS results with NO side effects whatsoever and OVERWHELMINGLY shows that the vaccine is effective-you
might be able to effectively prove you have a worthwhile vaccine and that would be the absolute best case scenario to have a vaccine ramped up and ready by November. This is actually coming from
Dr Paul Offit who is a leading researcher with vaccines.
But if you have so-so results then how do you know it is enough to be safe and effective? Say 50% get covid and 50% don't-do you "unblind" the study early to see if the not-covid group got the actual vaccine? What happens then if 25% of the vaccine group still got covid? You have now ruined your study and should start all over.
When a well well respected researcher/physician like him says " I wouldn't get the first vaccine
unless ALL the conditions met, all research transparent/reviewed" I will listen the expert in this case. Note he is NOT saying he wouldn't ever not get the vaccine, but it would need to meet his high criteria for safety/efficacy-as should ALL vaccines. When HE is skeptical that an early November timeline will be met...