CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[dvcgirl67]

Part of me (and maybe I’m not alone in this thought) wonders if all of the lockdowns and precautions of the past year have even mattered. Would the virus have just done what it wanted to do anyway. Are we just prolonging the inevitable and dragging it out instead of ripping the Bandaid off? Then the other part of me thinks, no of course we have helped prevent what could have been many many more deaths by distancing and masking.
I don’t know...just thinking out loud.

There would have been many, many more deaths. Also, even in the states that had few restrictions, there were likely thousands to millions of people who set their own stricter precautions. My state has been open to indoor dining since September....first at 25% and then 50%. DH and I haven't been inside a restaurant....nobody in my family has. And there are millions like us all over the country.

And conversely, in states with tougher restrictions like California, there are thousands and thousands of people who did not follow the rules. Maybe they weren't allowed to eat inside restaurants or hold family celebrations in public, but they did so inside their homes. We didn't do that either...at all.

 

[jlwhitney]

New daily cases and the 7-day moving average have been inching back up for the past week-plus. Week-over-week today shows 10% increase in cases. Maybe a local min?

03-16: 53,634
03-23: 58,705

(data: Worldometers).

I have read that some believe there will be a slight uptick in March and then another steep drop in April but no true surge. Right now I don't see it as much to worry.

 

[tink2424]

That might explain the changing approach to restrictions in various places, but it doesn't explain why a place can have tight restrictions or even a lockdown while seeing cases continue to climb while another place can have no restrictions at all and see them continue to fall. That's the part that puzzles me, and has for quite a while now. California saw high enough cases to overload hospital systems across the entire southern part of the state at a time when they had the tightest restrictions in the country. Germany has been under lockdown since November, starting somewhat moderate but by December stricter than any that has been imposed in the States, and cases are climbing. We're a year into this and all we seem to have is ideological orthodoxy, not actual data-based evaluations on what measures have been most effective at limiting spread.

Yes!! This!!!

You are correct. That is why I get annoyed when people just want to say the US did a bad job of managing the pandemic or certain states or even certain groups of people. That of course if people would just wear masks and social distance then we would already be over the pandemic. Clearly that is not the case or we would already be out of this mess.

I am sure that masks and social distancing help but I really don't think they are the magic bullet that most pretend they are. They are mostly health theatre and are better than nothing and make people feel more safe to go out. I think the more important thing is that what we are doing seems to have very little impact on the spread of the virus. Sure, locking people in their homes and limiting what they can do/who they can interact with will have an impact on the spread. But that is a very severe reaction and something that is not long term sustainable. We really haven't gotten to the route cause of why some places have higher spread then others. I do really wish we were researching this more...

 

[piglet1979]

My cousin in VA that was having trouble finding an appointment found one at CVS at midnight last night. Her appointment is for Sunday. Also, 2 guys that work with my husband were able to get appointments here in Ohio last night at midnight as well.

Monday night I was awake at midnight (thanks to a call at midnight. Wrong number) and was able to get 2 different appointments for DH that were better then the one he already had. Once he was up in the morning he picked which one he wanted and I canceled the others. He now goes on Saturday but he will get Pfizer instead of Maderna and will be fully vaccinated a week earlier. Though I had one close to home for him (something he wanted) he decided to take the one further away to get Pfizer and be done earlier.

 

[disneypharm]

There would have been many, many more deaths. Also, even in the states that had few restrictions, there were likely thousands to millions of people who set their own stricter precautions. My state has been open to indoor dining since September....first at 25% and then 50%. DH and I haven't been inside a restaurant....nobody in my family has. And there are millions like us all over the country.

And conversely, in states with tougher restrictions like California, there are thousands and thousands of people who did not follow the rules. Maybe they weren't allowed to eat inside restaurants or hold family celebrations in public, but they did so inside their homes. We didn't do that either...at all.

Yes, Actually This!!

 

[godisney14]

Yes!! This!!!

You are correct. That is why I get annoyed when people just want to say the US did a bad job of managing the pandemic or certain states or even certain groups of people. That of course if people would just wear masks and social distance then we would already be over the pandemic. Clearly that is not the case or we would already be out of this mess.

I am sure that masks and social distancing help but I really don't think they are the magic bullet that most pretend they are. They are mostly health theatre and are better than nothing and make people feel more safe to go out. I think the more important thing is that what we are doing seems to have very little impact on the spread of the virus. Sure, locking people in their homes and limiting what they can do/who they can interact with will have an impact on the spread. But that is a very severe reaction and something that is not long term sustainable. We really haven't gotten to the route cause of why some places have higher spread then others. I do really wish we were researching this more...

1. No one locked people into their homes. Talking about theatrics, there’s the theater. Over exaggeration.

2. Just because places like California has a lot of cases doesn’t mean restrictions do not work. That’s a logical fallacy. Are you saying other countries with stricter guidelines and restrictions that have done better with the pandemic are a mystery?

3. CA has the largest population. Some people don’t understand what that means. We do have a lot of people not following the guidelines. Just from sheer population size, as blue leaning CA is, CA likely has more people who don’t follow guidelines or believe in masks than many other states. FYI, CA has 40x more people than South Dakota and almost 100X more people than Wyoming. Even if just 1 out of 100 Californians do not adhere to guidelines, that would be equivalent to the entire population of Wyoming being maskless.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Respectfully, I don't think vaccine mismanagement is an excuse for letting vaccine set unused. If Kroger received more than they could use, it should have been sent to another location. I'll wait for the PP to respond to see, if it's a pattern in her area or she just logged on at the right time.

I wasn't giving an excuse whatsoever. I've been very much a champion of sharing and shifting supply. I was mentioning that as a possibility because I may very much think supply should be shifted around but I no control or knowledge of agreements or contracts made. I remember when that poster mentioned the hospital couldn't share I was like "huh? doesn't seem efficient". Either way shifting can be done as a vaccine administrator or throughout a county or state too so if there's need elsewhere the most flexibility would be to send it elsewhere.

Just to give an example in my state the governor held counties that completed phase 2 in a "pause" pattern which they didn't really like (and I understand why). But she shifted the vaccine to places still completing it. On Monday when Phase 3 and 4 became eligible (largely due to the pressure from the President though they were close to opening up the next phases soon) in my state there were still 10,000 people in just my county alone who were still waiting to get a vaccine in Phase 2. If the governor had not held those counties in a pause and shifted the vaccine holy moly would we be in big big big trouble!

The clinic that my county runs they just moved into a bigger warehouse (so they can have more people, longer hours and weekend hours) this week and 70% of the appointments this week went to Phase 2 people. That's why a lot of us who became eligible in phase 3 and 4 had to look elsewhere and even then most of the appointments were for 3 to 4 weeks later. And it wasn't just my county either that was experiencing issues. But I still can't imagine what our situation would have been like had the counties elsewhere just been able to keep moving on. And I know how controversial that decision the governor made was especially when most people's opinions are that you should just get vaccine out there to any and everyone.

Admittedly, I still haven't read the article, but you mentioned Florida specifically. The excerpt you posted isn't what I'm seeing in Florida. I haven't been keeping up with what's going on in other states.

Respectfully (and I truly mean this) if you haven't read the article then you're missing the context of the excerpt. The data was up to March 10th. Def. not trying to force you to read it, it just mirrored our conversation on the other thread about tvguy's comment and coincidentally you were in FL which was one of the state's mentioned and you were discussing people waiting to become eligible and there being demand there which is what the article was discussing. The article was discussing trends throughout states, if in the last 2 weeks things have dramatically improved in your area and state it wouldn't just negate the analysis as a whole (but that would be really good news for things to improve).

I don't want to take up too much of this thread on this as I feel I already have I very much respect your viewpoint and what is now going on in your area (who wouldn't want to be able to get an appointment for that day, that's amazing!!) but I'll go ahead and move on in topics

 

[DLgal]

1. No one locked people into their homes. Talking about theatrics, there’s the theater. Over exaggeration.

2. Just because places like California has a lot of cases doesn’t mean restrictions do not work. That’s a logical fallacy. Are you saying other countries with stricter guidelines and restrictions that have done better with the pandemic are a mystery?

3. CA has the largest population. Some people don’t understand what that means. We do have a lot of people not following the guidelines. Just from sheer population size, as blue leaning CA is, CA likely has more people who don’t follow guidelines or believe in masks than many other states. FYI, CA has 40x more people than South Dakota and almost 100X more people than Wyoming. Even if just 1 out of 100 Californians do not adhere to guidelines, that would be equivalent to the entire population of Wyoming being maskless.

To your 3rd point, in CA, the absolute epicenter of the surge in cases was LA county, followed by OC and SD. These counties have VERY large populations of Hispanic and Asian people who tend to live in large multi family homes (due to the astronomical COL) and have a very hard time staying apart, due to cultural norms. These groups were the ones largely experiencing hospitalizations and deaths. They were also the groups having BBQs and parties and continuing to gather every week throughout the pandemic. There was an Atlantic article written about this phenomenon. These groups of people also experience generally poor healthcare access even in normal times, and they also are the ones largely contributing to front line work in the food and service and health care industries, so it is no wonder they were hit so hard.

It wasn't the CA white, upper class anti makers that fueled the surge here. Those people were largely unimpacted by Covid, and that is why they behaved that way.

 

[godisney14]

To your 3rd point, in CA, the absolute epicenter of the surge in cases was LA county, followed by OC and SD. These counties have VERY large populations of Hispanic and Asian people who tend to live in large multi family homes (due to the astronomical COL) and have a very hard time staying apart, due to cultural norms. These groups were the ones largely experiencing hospitalizations and deaths. They were also the groups having BBQs and parties and continuing to gather every week throughout the pandemic. There was an Atlantic article written about this phenomenon. These groups of people also experience generally poor healthcare access even in normal times, and they also are the ones largely contributing to front line work in the food and service and health care industries, so it is no wonder they were hit so hard.

It wasn't the CA white, upper class anti makers that fueled the surge here. Those people were largely unimpacted by Covid, and that is why they behaved that way.

Yea, I realize that, and was going to mention it as well but PP’s point was specifically about restrictions.
Thanks for pointing it out. No doubt many cases in CA are attributed to spread within a household as well.

 

[Colleen27]

1. No one locked people into their homes. Talking about theatrics, there’s the theater. Over exaggeration.

2. Just because places like California has a lot of cases doesn’t mean restrictions do not work. That’s a logical fallacy. Are you saying other countries with stricter guidelines and restrictions that have done better with the pandemic are a mystery?

3. CA has the largest population. Some people don’t understand what that means. We do have a lot of people not following the guidelines. Just from sheer population size, as blue leaning CA is, CA likely has more people who don’t follow guidelines or believe in masks than many other states. FYI, CA has 40x more people than South Dakota and almost 100X more people than Wyoming. Even if just 1 out of 100 Californians do not adhere to guidelines, that would be equivalent to the entire population of Wyoming being maskless.

I actually do feel that way to some extent, yes. There is a part of me that feels like the severity of the pandemic in the Western world has much more to do with our generally unhealthy ways of living than with any of our responses or lack thereof. My daughter has been in touch with her host families in Japan throughout this entire thing, both sets of parents and three of her host-siblings individually. She was particularly concerned about her first host family, because they live in an apartment building in a suburb of Tokyo and she couldn't imagine how they could social distance, based on her time there. And their success with the virus seems almost inexplicable. They shut down non-essential travel between prefectures and closed some large congregate entertainment facilities like theme parks, but her father has been commuting on a train to Tokyo every day throughout the whole thing and says it is only a little less crowded, and the restrictions on smaller entertainment venues were a request for people to use caution and reduce capacity but not a closure. Her college-age brother was out at a karaoke bar the weekend he moved into his apartment near school and has had in-person classes and her mother and tween host sister made a weekend of moving him in, complete with a stop at an onsen resort on their way home. They've had much more freedom of movement and far fewer business closures than we have, and yet the virus never really took off there.

And as far as non-compliance, I think every state has that problem. Mask mandates have been a joke in Michigan. There are maybe a dozen counties (of 84) where they're taken seriously. Business closures have been somewhat more effective because that is under the power of state licensing agencies rather than up to local authorities to enforce, but there has been plenty of defiance and plenty of people supporting that defiance. So I tend to assume that's a constant of human behavior; there will be X% who ignore all mandates and Y% who are more cautious than reopening plans, and state mandates are only likely to sway those who fit neither group. I suspect that rates of poverty, communal living, and jobs that cannot be done remotely are all far more influential than either compliance rates or lockdown rules.

 

[Mango7100]

So TN checking in here again. 55+ and some infrastructure workers start this week. The state is moving to 16 and up on April 5 with some rural counties already starting due to lack of demand. There is still no movement of vaccine between counties or facilities. There are a decent number of appointments in my metro area from independent pharmacies and grocery chains, but the county health department waitlist is over 40000. People just sign up for that and then sit and wait for a call without exploring other avenues despite the health dept and local news telling people about other options. I have had several friends get vaccines by being on a no waste list recently as well (most have driven to a neighboring county pharmacy for that).

 

[dvcgirl67]

To your 3rd point, in CA, the absolute epicenter of the surge in cases was LA county, followed by OC and SD. These counties have VERY large populations of Hispanic and Asian people who tend to live in large multi family homes (due to the astronomical COL) and have a very hard time staying apart, due to cultural norms. These groups were the ones largely experiencing hospitalizations and deaths. They were also the groups having BBQs and parties and continuing to gather every week throughout the pandemic. There was an Atlantic article written about this phenomenon. These groups of people also experience generally poor healthcare access even in normal times, and they also are the ones largely contributing to front line work in the food and service and health care industries, so it is no wonder they were hit so hard.

It wasn't the CA white, upper class anti makers that fueled the surge here. Those people were largely unimpacted by Covid, and that is why they behaved that way.

100% to this......the multigenerational homes with certain communities....was a big part of the surges in certain states. I live in a town with a lot of Hispanic people....they are the "service army" for this entire area. They work in the restaurants, clean the homes, cut the lawns......on and on. And they rely on people within their community for childcare...etc. I always see my neighbors wearing masks, but there were plenty of family/friend gatherings through this entire thing.

I was talking to our lawn care guy. He's about 40 and has a pre-existing condition and so he was telling me that he was happy that he was one Moderna shot in. The two Hispanic guys who work for him and are in his truck with him everyday are in their early 30s I'd say, and neither are getting the vaccine. Our guy told me that they've both had friends their age who have *died* from Covid...and yet they're not getting it. I'm wondering if there's a sort of "macho" element to it?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I was talking to our lawn care guy. He's about 40 and has a pre-existing condition and so he was telling me that he was happy that he was one Moderna shot in. The two Hispanic guys who work for him and are in his truck with him everyday are in their early 30s I'd say, and neither are getting the vaccine. Our guy told me that they've both had friends their age who have *died* from Covid...and yet they're not getting it. I'm wondering if there's a sort of "macho" element to it?

Have you considered an alternative theory? Maybe they are scared of getting it or it became stigmatized in their community, maybe information hasn't been given to them as easily (bi-lingual information is incredibly important too and that's not to say people don't understand english not at all what I'm saying but more inclusivity the better), maybe their area never had appointments where they could even use it, maybe they don't have the access to get appointments, maybe they wonder if they will be able to have a job if they were to take time off either for the vaccine or any side effects, and so many more possibilities. Oddly enough from the description you gave a "macho" element never entered my mind.

*And while I don't really know, your description of your lawn care guy having two hispanic guys working for him makes me think your lawncare guy is white/non-hispanic but I could be totally wrong.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

To your 3rd point, in CA, the absolute epicenter of the surge in cases was LA county, followed by OC and SD. These counties have VERY large populations of Hispanic and Asian people who tend to live in large multi family homes (due to the astronomical COL) and have a very hard time staying apart, due to cultural norms. These groups were the ones largely experiencing hospitalizations and deaths. They were also the groups having BBQs and parties and continuing to gather every week throughout the pandemic. There was an Atlantic article written about this phenomenon. These groups of people also experience generally poor healthcare access even in normal times, and they also are the ones largely contributing to front line work in the food and service and health care industries, so it is no wonder they were hit so hard.

It wasn't the CA white, upper class anti makers that fueled the surge here. Those people were largely unimpacted by Covid, and that is why they behaved that way.

This 100%. It’s why my county got hit harder than any of our surrounding ones. We are a huge ag area, with a lot of multi-generational or multi-family households.

Have you considered an alternative theory? Maybe they are scared of getting it or it became stigmatized in their community, maybe information hasn't been given to them as easily (bi-lingual information is incredibly important too and that's not to say people don't understand english not at all what I'm saying but more inclusivity the better), maybe their area never had appointments where they could even use it, maybe they don't have the access to get appointments, maybe they wonder if they will be able to have a job if they were to take time off either for the vaccine or any side effects, and so many more possibilities. Oddly enough from the description you gave a "macho" element never entered my mind.

*And while I don't really know, your description of your lawn care guy having two hispanic guys working for him makes me think your lawncare guy is white/non-hispanic but I could be totally wrong.

I agree with you. There are a lot of people who can’t afford to take the time off to get the vaccine and/or deal with side affects. Along with outreach to minority communities being dismal, I’m not surprised. I know my county is starting mobile vaccines to these communities- well when we get J&J again - for this exact reason.

 

[RamblingMad]

100% to this......the multigenerational homes with certain communities....was a big part of the surges in certain states. I live in a town with a lot of Hispanic people....they are the "service army" for this entire area. They work in the restaurants, clean the homes, cut the lawns......on and on. And they rely on people within their community for childcare...etc. I always see my neighbors wearing masks, but there were plenty of family/friend gatherings through this entire thing.

I was talking to our lawn care guy. He's about 40 and has a pre-existing condition and so he was telling me that he was happy that he was one Moderna shot in. The two Hispanic guys who work for him and are in his truck with him everyday are in their early 30s I'd say, and neither are getting the vaccine. Our guy told me that they've both had friends their age who have *died* from Covid...and yet they're not getting it. I'm wondering if there's a sort of "macho" element to it?

I think, it's more an age thing. AZ department of health provides a dashboard by age group. With us now open to 16+, I'm going to watch to see how the vaccination rates look by age. We have been open for 55+ for a while now, and that group hasn't broken 50%. Our 65+ is around 70%, and vaccines have been available to it for a long time.

https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
(click on vaccine prioritization to see the numbers by age group)

My guess is that the young people that wouldn't get a flu shot are likely not going to get a COVID vaccine shot. What this means is that we are not likely to reach the numbers required for herd immunity. We need 100% of 18+ to get to 74% of the population. So the question is: now what? Herd immunity is unlikely unless vaccines are mandated, which is not likely to happen.

 

[DLgal]

Have you considered an alternative theory? Maybe they are scared of getting it or it became stigmatized in their community, maybe information hasn't been given to them as easily (bi-lingual information is incredibly important too and that's not to say people don't understand english not at all what I'm saying but more inclusivity the better), maybe their area never had appointments where they could even use it, maybe they don't have the access to get appointments, maybe they wonder if they will be able to have a job if they were to take time off either for the vaccine or any side effects, and so many more possibilities. Oddly enough from the description you gave a "macho" element never entered my mind.

*And while I don't really know, your description of your lawn care guy having two hispanic guys working for him makes me think your lawncare guy is white/non-hispanic but I could be totally wrong.

None of the concerns you brought up are relevant here. EVERY bit of info about the virus and vaccines in Southern CA is largely disseminated in several languages. They have been doing outreach specifically in the heavily populated Hispanic, Asian, and black communities this whole time. Even radio PSAs are in Spanish, sometimes ONLY in Spanish.

There is absolutely an element of "macho" at play here. It is the same element that prevents the same groups of people from seeking preventative health care. There are free ans low cost clinics literally all over southern CA. The help is there, but there is very much a cultural element of "toughen up, you'll be fine" whenever Hispanics, especially, are sick. I come from and married into a hispanic family. Trust me, I know all about this. It is even worse in many Asian cultures. You are seen as weak if you get sick and it is considered a burden to need care.

And, it is not unusual at all for lawn care companies to be owned by hispanic people and have hispanic people working for them. Most appliance repair companies around me are the same way, same thing with auto repair places.

 

[DLgal]

I think, it's more an age thing. AZ department of health provides a dashboard by age group. With us now open to 16+, I'm going to watch to see how the vaccination rates look by age. We have been open for 55+ for a while now, and that group hasn't broken 50%. Our 65+ is around 70%, and vaccines have been available to it for a long time.

https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
(click on vaccine prioritization to see the numbers by age group)

My guess is that the young people that wouldn't get a flu shot are likely not going to get a COVID vaccine shot. What this means is that we are not likely to reach the numbers required for herd immunity. We need 100% of 18+ to get to 74% of the population. So the question is: now what? Herd immunity is unlikely unless vaccines are mandated, which is not likely to happen.

Yup. Age is definitely a factor in vaccine hesitancy.

Also, there is a LOT of "I already got covid, I don't need the vaccine" going around. I have heard this from at least 5 people this week, all around my age (40s).

 

[godisney14]

I think, it's more an age thing. AZ department of health provides a dashboard by age group. With us now open to 16+, I'm going to watch to see how the vaccination rates look by age. We have been open for 55+ for a while now, and that group hasn't broken 50%. Our 65+ is around 70%, and vaccines have been available to it for a long time.

https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epid...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
(click on vaccine prioritization to see the numbers by age group)

My guess is that the young people that wouldn't get a flu shot are likely not going to get a COVID vaccine shot. What this means is that we are not likely to reach the numbers required for herd immunity. We need 100% of 18+ to get to 74% of the population. So the question is: now what? Herd immunity is unlikely unless vaccines are mandated, which is not likely to happen.

Also, need more of the younger people to get vaccines not just for sheer numbers but because they’re the most likely to be going around and spreading it.

With not as much uptake on vaccines, different variants can become dominant and reduce the effectiveness of existing vaccines, and maybe more reliance on boosters.

Really puzzling to try and understand the mindset of people who may be against both masks and vaccines.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

None of the concerns you brought up are relevant here. EVERY bit of info about the virus and vaccines in Southern CA is largely disseminated in several languages. They have been doing outreach specifically in the heavily populated Hispanic, Asian, and black communities this whole time. Even radio PSAs are in Spanish, sometimes ONLY in Spanish.

There is absolutely an element of "macho" at play here. It is the same element that prevents the same groups of people from seeking preventative health care. There are free ans low cost clinics literally all over southern CA. The help is there, but there is very much a cultural element of "toughen up, you'll be fine" whenever Hispanics, especially, are sick. I come from and married into a hispanic family. Trust me, I know all about this. It is even worse in many Asian cultures. You are seen as weak if you get sick and it is considered a burden to need care.

And, it is not unusual at all for lawn care companies to be owned by hispanic people and have hispanic people working for them. Most appliance repair companies around me are the same way, same thing with auto repair places.

I think this may be a YMMV situation. I also married into a Latino family, in a heavily Latino community and that isn’t at all what’s happening up here. A lot up here is vaccine hesitancy because of lack of communication and accessibility (lack of transportation, etc). It’s why they’re going to try to bring the vaccine & information to them.

And fear of missing work and especially pay, is a huge factor.

 

[RamblingMad]

Also, need more of the younger people to get vaccines not just for sheer numbers but because they’re the most likely to be going around and spreading it.

With not as much uptake on vaccines, different variants can become dominant and reduce the effectiveness of existing vaccines, and maybe more reliance on boosters.

Really puzzling to try and understand the mindset of people who may be against both masks and vaccines.

The information about children and COVID continues to change as we learn more. Here's the latest: