CDC asking for public input on restarting cruises

[bavaria]

Waiting for a vaccine is not feasible for so many reasons. People are thinking some wonder vaccine like the polio shot will come and Bamm! Covid is over. That will not be the case. Life has to continue, cruising will continue in a new normal.

Short cruises es Germany are already taking place this summer.

And in Portugal, and other river cruise destinations in Europe. The two big German cruise lines just began their new 'cruise to nowhere' routes. Cruises have resumed in other parts of the world too, in some fashion. I agree that putting all hopes into a vaccine and the timeline that requires is not realistic.

 

[mmackeymouse]

Right, I heard that. He thinks no DCL at all until there's a vaccine, and then you'd need proof of vaccination to cruise. He's probably right.

I have to chuckle at this. A few months ago, when they were doing the live q and as, Pete had responded to a question of mine, and he went on a little mini-rant. I will post it if I can find it. Essentially my question was about people who were already cancelling Fall cruises, and people who were saying that cruising will not return until Summer 2021, at least.

He went on a bit of a tangent and I believe the word was "crazy" was used. Essentially his point, and I totally get it, was that if cruising doesn't return by then....cruising was in major, major trouble.

I chuckle, not as a criticism against Pete, not at all....but more about how much more we know now than we knew then. And how much has changed and how much is still unknown since that day in March/April, whenever it was. Back then, the idea of cruises being closed for over a year seemed absolutely bonkers. And, here we are months later and...the idea of cruising seems bonkers at this point.

The problem I foresee DCL having with this hypothetical policy would be that there would be no way for DCL to verify if your proof of vaccination is valid. It could just be something you print off of your home printer. If DCL calls the Doc office you have listed on your "papers", the Doc office could not even admit that they saw you or not without violating HIPAA. So if DCL does develop a policy like this, it would be more to cover them liability wise and not necessarily to prevent non-vaccinated people from boarding. A policy like this would mainly be for show and not for actual practicality.

I agree with you on this.

Now, externally, it could be one of those things that the US comes up with some sort of national registry that makes it easy to look up whether someone has had a legitimate vaccine...not necessarily for traveling, but just for everything- traveling, prospective employers, visiting someone in the hospital, things like that. I'm thinking something similar to, but not as invasive as the Chinese system they have.

Kevin and John had mentioned they could see something sort of "attached" to people's passports, so that when someone scans your passport, it automatically says your vaccination status.

I am not sure how things would work with international visitors, but....the point is, if something like this comes along, it would definitely make DCL's job a lot easier to verify the validity of their guests' vaccinations.

I agree....I think its MORE likely that DCL will ask that we sign waivers acknowledging the potential risk that there may be an unvaccinated COVID carrier aboard. They don't want to expose themselves to potential liability by having a "proof of vaccine" policy and then having someone still sneak through b/c they didn't properly vet their passengers.

I think the problem I have with this is....as we have seen with opening the economy, as we have seen with wearing masks, as we have seen with sending kids back to school....it's a very divisive thing (unfortunately). And, I think there is probably a sizable component of people who will not get the vaccine- out of spite, out of politics, and maybe even people who legit don't want to get a newer vaccine out of worry that it's dangerous. So, if even 15% of the people on the ship are unvaccinated, there is still the possibility for a breakout of decent proportions. And no amount of waivers will combat the media scrutiny and bad PR that will come from that. Even if every other cruise line has the exact same protocols, if something happens on DCL, the media mob will swarm.

On top of that...vaccines, even the best ones, aren't 100% effective. Anyone who has ever had the flu after getting the flu shot can tell you that, because there is some sort of strain that the flu shot isn't completely effective against all the strains. I have to imagine that any vaccine that comes out will be a work in progress. If I have a vaccine that is 95% effective, and I am in close contact with....say 500 people who are unvaccinated....well, I don't really feel all that safe.

This is all to say that I agree with Pete that the best way to do it is proof of vaccine (or maybe MAYBE positive antibody test) or you don't cruise. No, it doesn't guarantee, complete 100% protection. But, I think it might be just about as close as they can get.

 

[bavaria]

"mmackeymouse, post: 62171191, member: 202993"
I am not sure how things would work with international visitors, but....the point is, if something like this comes along, it would definitely make DCL's job a lot easier to verify the validity of their guests' vaccinations.

This really isn't difficult, although it seems that most posters have a limited circle of experience with this. 'Carte Jaune' has existed for decades, and is required when travelling to/from/certain areas as proof of required vaccination. Yellow fever for example is one that is regularly required and documentation must be carried. I show mine several times a year during my travels. Even in the first months of this year when I travelled to some countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, I was required to complete a medical documentation form.

 

[Husker Mike]

And in Portugal, and other river cruise destinations in Europe. The two big German cruise lines just began their new 'cruise to nowhere' routes. Cruises have resumed in other parts of the world too, in some fashion. I agree that putting all hopes into a vaccine and the timeline that requires is not realistic.

Germany was able to effectively limit the effects of COVID early on, and that has allowed Germany to return to a new normal sooner than most other countries.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/germanys-coronavirus-response-masterful-science-communication.html
The US has not shown any sort of ability to control the disease (and in fact, seems to be rejecting many efforts to control it), and because of that, rollout of a vaccine is now unfortunately the shortest route to returning to a more normal world.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The assumption being made is that cruising isn't in trouble and that it has to come back.

In many respects, the pandemic is exposing some of the big structural issues in the industry. Some of them may not be fixable.

Cruising as an industry may be about to change significantly. Mega ships may become obsolete. Flags of convenience may be re-evaluated.

A lot of reopen arguments across all industries assume a status quo - things go back to how they were. But maybe things are rapidly evolving. And how holidays are taken, their costs and their structure may be one of those areas of evolution.

 

[WB1971]

I'm not delusional, thanks. I understand that a vaccine will not "wipe out"covid. Just like the flu vaccine will never wipe out the flu. The point of the vaccine is to slow transmission considerably, and lessen symptoms of those that DO get it. That is when we will be able to resume normal life.

Life is not normal right now, and we have to take precautions right now because there's literally no treatment for this disease yet, and besides deaths, long term effects of covid can be life altering. But keep kidding yourself that covid is not a problem.

And you are willing to shut down every time a new virus breaks out? You are delusional thinking this is sustainable. Loss of ability to earn a living due to unwise shutdowns and loss of willingness to live in isolation will 100% prove more deadly than any virus. And folks like you will insist we repeat this again the next time now that this awful precedent has been set.

 

[Jasrhon]

The problem I foresee DCL having with this hypothetical policy would be that there would be no way for DCL to verify if your proof of vaccination is valid. It could just be something you print off of your home printer. If DCL calls the Doc office you have listed on your "papers", the Doc office could not even admit that they saw you or not without violating HIPAA. So if DCL does develop a policy like this, it would be more to cover them liability wise and not necessarily to prevent non-vaccinated people from boarding. A policy like this would mainly be for show and not for actual practicality.

Canadian physician here. There is an internationally recognized proof of vaccination form against yellow fever that is required for travel to certain countries. The form is on yellow paper and the physician must sign and stamp the original. I could see something like this being developed for proof of a COVID vaccine.

 

[Husker Mike]

And you are willing to shut down every time a new virus breaks out? You are delusional thinking this is sustainable. Loss of ability to earn a living due to unwise shutdowns and loss of willingness to live in isolation will 100% prove more deadly than any virus. And folks like you will insist we repeat this again the next time now that this awful precedent has been set.

This is kind of like someone who refuses to evacuate for a hurricane because it's just a rainstorm. We're at 150k and counting for fatalities at this point in four months, with cases increasing.

Nobody is suggesting that we shut down "every time a new virus breaks out"... but when we have a 100 year pandemic that is overwhelming our hospital system in parts of the country, action is required.

 

[sethschroeder]

And you are willing to shut down every time a new virus breaks out?

No one is saying we should. Havent had this happen once in my life so when we get to that point of the next virus let's talk.

Honestly I think cruising should be open just with a severe cap on capacity at this point. I have other ideas as well but that's the main one.

 

[bavaria]

Germany was able to effectively limit the effects of COVID early on, and that has allowed Germany to return to a new normal sooner than most other countries.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/germanys-coronavirus-response-masterful-science-communication.html
The US has not shown any sort of ability to control the disease (and in fact, seems to be rejecting many efforts to control it), and because of that, rollout of a vaccine is now unfortunately the shortest route to returning to a more normal world.

I'm sure that we are all quite aware of the differences globally between how this is being handled. (And to be frank, it has become very boring here as trying to engage in any conversation becomes very US-centric, which is understandable, but the voices of the few non-Americans left are becoming very quiet. It's almost impossible to hold a discussion because you are no longer a few weeks behind us, but on a different planet. I mean that in a kind way, and I have said constantly that I hope for the US to reach a quick resolution, but I also am frustrated that there is a lack of meaningful conversation which considers non-US situations)

I believe what mousefan was trying to point out was that there are cruises already going in many other places in the world, and thus the CDC does not need to reinvent the wheel, but look to what is already working and use that as a basis for decision making. I'm not sure why a government agency would poll consumers and make decisions based on that, rather than look to the industry globally and see what has been successful.

 

[bavaria]

Canadian physician here. There is an internationally recognized proof of vaccination form against yellow fever that is required for travel to certain countries. The form is on yellow paper and the physician must sign and stamp the original. I could see something like this being developed for proof of a COVID vaccine.

I posted that on another thread saying how difficult it would be. Um, carte jaune has been in existence for decades and some of us use it very regularly. This too is an example of how considering and following practices already in place, vs reinventing the wheel, makes sense. I'm not sure that I understand this need to invent something 'new' when there are already practices in place which work well. Trying travelling around certain regions of South America and Africa without a correctly and fully completed carte jaune, and you will see how strict the protocols can be to avoid the spread of something like yellow fever.

 

[gotomu212]

I'm sure that we are all quite aware of the differences globally between how this is being handled. (And to be frank, it has become very boring here as trying to engage in any conversation becomes very US-centric, which is understandable, but the voices of the few non-Americans left are becoming very quiet. It's almost impossible to hold a discussion because you are no longer a few weeks behind us, but on a different planet. I mean that in a kind way, and I have said constantly that I hope for the US to reach a quick resolution, but I also am frustrated that there is a lack of meaningful conversation which considers non-US situations)

I believe what mousefan was trying to point out was that there are cruises already going in many other places in the world, and thus the CDC does not need to reinvent the wheel, but look to what is already working and use that as a basis for decision making. I'm not sure why a government agency would poll consumers and make decisions based on that, rather than look to the industry globally and see what has been successful.

Just a comment on the “poll consumer” question. That’s not really what’s happening here. When US government agencies make rules and policies there is a mandated solicitation period to cast a wide net for information, input, and rule review. This is because these rules and policies act as administrative laws but did not go through our elected legislators. This is the legal process for writing those rules that will govern the industry.

The majority of responses will come from industry trade groups, individual companies in that field, academic studies from various universities, and medical groups (if it was a financial issue banks/economist weigh in, education teachers/school boards/etc). Most will be submitting study data and reports and ensures all sides of an issue have equal access to those drafting regulation and that the rule writers aren’t going with incomplete information that harms company A because company A never had a chance to present their plan.

General comments from concerned citizens that don’t provide actual data or informed policy notes but just show their support for or against are put into a general comment bucket and not used for the drafting (or really anything). The CDC will be using information from opened lines, other governments, along with US company information, and medical/scientific research. However they cannot unilaterally decide without input that Germany’s cruise line for example is doing things “right” and are “successful” or only look at US medical data from Bob’s lab.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

This too is an example of how considering and following practices already in place, vs reinventing the wheel, makes sense.

That's America for you, though.

The templates in use in Europe or Asia really only work for cruises using Europe or Asia as origin points. The templates lack context for the issues in Florida or California. DCL's operations are further complicated by their primary audience being mostly American, which means even filling the Magic for a European itinerary is heavily impacted by travel restriction, and all of their other negotiated ports/itineraries have a big American component beyond the passengers (port of embark in most cases, save the AK itineraries, where you have Americans crossing the CA border and then American port calls).