Can I say again how much I HATE park reservations!

[zavandor]

Disney Parks' data gathering and parsing was world class long before park reservations ever became a thing. Despite the hell given to 'Disney IT' (myself included at times) for their forward facing systems (not maintained domestically for the most part, BTW), the backend stuff is renowned in the IT world for being some of the best designs and working systems in the world, despite what some here may choose to believe.

All of that to say this. Disney does NOT need the park reservation system to gauge staffing needs in the parks. I'm not really sure I remember if that angle originated on the boards, or as a 'by the way' comment from some Disney propaganda along the way, but it is nowhere near essential or necessary to predictive park staffing.

Disney Parks' data parsing can tell you when a purple polka-dotted magic band is going to go thru the 2nd turnstile at Epcot International Gateway after 11:07 within seconds. They know exactly how many people they need for the Magic Carpets of Aladdin at 3:04pm as well. And at 8:00am also. It's that good. I'm not exaggerating. Please consider stopping the pass we are giving them on the necessity of 'park reservations' for staffing predictions. It is totally and utterly ridiculous.

I don't think the goal is to predict crowds, but to manipulate them.
Let's say they predict that MK will have 80k visitors one day and AK 10k. I might be exaggerating, but there are times, like some holidays and non party days when demand for MK is much higher.
With those numbers they need full staff at MK with extra people just to handle the crowds and people would be miserable and probably spend less due to lines for everything, from attractions to shops and restaurants.
In the meantime at AK the few people there will have a great time but Disney would not be able to avoid staffing all positions (Safari can reduce the number of vehicles, but Everest has just one loading platform, that has to be staffed anyway).

But now they can artificially cap MK at 50k. Those 30k people who would have gone to MK have to chose another park or not go at all. If 10k go to each one of the other parks it's a huge victory for Disney. 20k people at AK is a more reasonable number and people at MK have a better experience, and crucially, they'll spend more money.

Park reservations will go away only if too many of those 30k decide not to go at all, causing a loss of revenue. Since we still have park reservations, it seems it's not happening (unfortunately).

 

[tidefan]

I don't think the goal is to predict crowds, but to manipulate them.
Let's say they predict that MK will have 80k visitors one day and AK 10k. I might be exaggerating, but there are times, like some holidays and non party days when demand for MK is much higher.
With those numbers they need full staff at MK with extra people just to handle the crowds and people would be miserable and probably spend less due to lines for everything, from attractions to shops and restaurants.
In the meantime at AK the few people there will have a great time but Disney would not be able to avoid staffing all positions (Safari can reduce the number of vehicles, but Everest has just one loading platform, that has to be staffed anyway).

But now they can artificially cap MK at 50k. Those 30k people who would have gone to MK have to chose another park or not go at all. If 10k go to each one of the other parks it's a huge victory for Disney. 20k people at AK is a more reasonable number and people at MK have a better experience, and crucially, they'll spend more money.

Park reservations will go away only if too many of those 30k decide not to go at all, causing a loss of revenue. Since we still have park reservations, it seems it's not happening (unfortunately).

Or… maybe just improve AK to make it as enticing as MK.

I keep coming back to “how does this affect me as a DVC member”? And it has a large effect.

The combination of no AP’s and the park reservation system really takes any spontaneity out of a WDW trip. No more “I have extra points, let’s go down for the weekend”. I wonder if this will affect add-on sales. Especially if I can’t get an AP, multiple trips doesn’t make financial sense anymore. If we see the off-park sites start to get too hard to book. Then we will have to consider selling.

I think Disney is in a bit of “paralysis by analysis”. Data mining techniques are very good at predicting future outcomes based on past history. What they are not good at is predicting future behavior based upon data built with changes it hasn’t seen before. There is a term in data mining called “overfitting your model”, which basically means you are really good at knowing what will occur assuming everything stays the same. However, when data/behaviors change, then the prediction models don’t perform very well. This is a pitfall than many organizations have fallen into and I wonder if Disney is seeing a bit of that…

 

[WilsonFlyer]

EXACTLY! Plaid tried to make me feel like trash. I'm still salty over it.

Oh I get it. Believe me. I get it.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Or… maybe just improve AK to make it as enticing as MK.

I keep coming back to “how does this affect me as a DVC member”? And it has a large effect.

The combination of no AP’s and the park reservation system really takes any spontaneity out of a WDW trip. No more “I have extra points, let’s go down for the weekend”. I wonder if this will affect add-on sales. Especially if I can’t get an AP, multiple trips doesn’t make financial sense anymore. If we see the off-park sites start to get too hard to book. Then we will have to consider selling.

I think Disney is in a bit of “paralysis by analysis”. Data mining techniques are very good at predicting future outcomes based on past history. What they are not good at is predicting future behavior based upon data built with changes it hasn’t seen before. There is a term in data mining called “overfitting your model”, which basically means you are really good at knowing what will occur assuming everything stays the same. However, when data/behaviors change, then the prediction models don’t perform very well. This is a pitfall than many organizations have fallen into and I wonder if Disney is seeing a bit of that…

Bingo.

 

[loves to dive]

While not a fan, I wouldn't say I hate it, I've learned to work with it.

Background: I'm one of the old timers, I've been going since 1983 so yes, I've seen all the changes. Heck there were only two parks and only the MK resorts and the Fort to stay at. We have always had hoppers, even with just two parks. We have always been non-planners. Back in the day my son loved to go to the little TV like screens at Epcot and make our ADRs. We were the hop on the first bus to arrive and that was the park we went to people. We were the go to GS and have them make ADRs, if it wasn't busy in there the CMs would get in competitions among themselves to see who could find one first. We would just say find us something in this time range or find us something in this park. There were no FP, no FP+ no 60 day in advance ADRs, just go to the parks and stand in line. We maybe used the old paper FPs 3 times after they came out. The only time we used the FP+ would be either on the way to a park if we saw something we wanted to ride within 30 min. or while standing in line if we saw something we wanted within 30 min. I never booked one even a day out. The only ADRs we booked in advance were tea at the GF and that was only within the last 6 or 7 years, before that you could pretty much get them the day of. Heck, I even booked V&A only a week out and I booked special tours day of sometimes.

So, are the park reservations and only being able to hop until 2 a pain? Yes but it is what it is. I just randomly make park reservations when I book my resort. I go to the reserved park day of and spend the morning there, then go back to the resort or another resort for lunch then hop away after 2. I've been since Genie+ was introduced and I didn't get it and rode everything I wanted to ride SB and that was a trip where I woke up with a cold on day 4 of a 5 day trip so day 4 and 5 were mostly laying around my room or masking even outside and double masking if I was inside. Oh, and yes I have an AP but it will expire this Sept. I have a trip booked the last week in Aug. I will not renew but it has nothing to do with Disney and everything to do with the fact that for the next 18 months I won't have the funds to make more than one trip to WDW so renewing doesn't make sense money wise. After that 18 months passes, God willing and the creek don't rise, I'm getting another AP.

 

[CarrieR]

I don't think the goal is to predict crowds, but to manipulate them.
Let's say they predict that MK will have 80k visitors one day and AK 10k. I might be exaggerating, but there are times, like some holidays and non party days when demand for MK is much higher.
With those numbers they need full staff at MK with extra people just to handle the crowds and people would be miserable and probably spend less due to lines for everything, from attractions to shops and restaurants.
In the meantime at AK the few people there will have a great time but Disney would not be able to avoid staffing all positions (Safari can reduce the number of vehicles, but Everest has just one loading platform, that has to be staffed anyway).

But now they can artificially cap MK at 50k. Those 30k people who would have gone to MK have to chose another park or not go at all. If 10k go to each one of the other parks it's a huge victory for Disney. 20k people at AK is a more reasonable number and people at MK have a better experience, and crucially, they'll spend more money.

Park reservations will go away only if too many of those 30k decide not to go at all, causing a loss of revenue. Since we still have park reservations, it seems it's not happening (unfortunately).

This is where I’m at right now. I’m a WDW vet and have a conference in Orlando in a few weeks. In the past, a group of 3-4 of us have tacked on a 7-10 day stay. Right now, it’s just not worth it. I’m doing a couple of days before the conference solo. In addition, I have a colleague who has never been to WDW and would like to go with me. She only has one full day, and maybe the evening before. I had initially planned to give her a “four parks tour” on a one-day hopper. But that’s hard to justify with not being able to hop until 2P. Even more impactful is the fact that we can’t start at MK, as reservations are full, and we can’t end there because it closes at 6 for a party. MK is really the only thing she ”must” see, so we’ve scrapped the plan to spend all day in the parks and will do the party instead. In addition, she was going to join me on a twilight ticket the previous night, but I am at DHS… no reservations available. This is a level 3 or 4 crowd day, not exactly a peak season where capacity should be an issue. So instead of getting the revenue from a one day hopper and a twilight ticket, G+, ILL, F&B from the full day plus the evening, and merch (she is Star Wars people), they’ll get a party ticket and maybe some snacks. With so little time, we’ll eat (offsite) before arriving for the party. *shrug* That’s the choice they’ve made in employing these systems. They’re willing to bet people will deal with it and come. And perhaps that’s true - it may be that the losses from situations like mine are offset by other gains, and the tradeoff is worth it.

All I know is that from my party’s perspective, the cost increases, idiocy of G+, and reservations meant that for the most part, we said “nevermind”. I almost pulled the plug on the days I am spending there, except that my flights are booked through work and it’s too much drama to change them. So instead I’m on the boards trying to learn *yet again* how to tour parks I know like the back of my hand, because of artificial limits that put profit above the guest experience. Which is fine, to a degree - they exist to make a profit after all. The caveat is that much of their business relies on their reputation, which is built on the guest experience, in turn allowing them to charge exorbitant prices. More and more I think they forget that - or more important, forget that a historically stellar reputation doesn’t mean it will stay that way forever. (And in my book, park reservations & 2PM hopping are a HUGE hit to the guest experience.)

 

[SL6827]

Disney is wanting NEW guest. More money spent and not hopping till 2pm will be the norm to them and they won't give it a 2nd thought.

 

[tidefan]

Disney is wanting NEW guest. More money spent and not hopping till 2pm will be the norm to them and they won't give it a 2nd thought.

New customer acquisition is an extremely high cost for most businesses. It is much cheaper to retain current customers.

Of course, maybe Disney doesn’t need all of us that have been going for years…

 

[vint43]

Here is a crazy thought. How about if you are a direct DVC member and AP holder they no longer require a park reservation.

A little gesture to say “thank you for your loyal support - we would like to make your planning just a bit easier.”

It would cost virtually nothing to make life a little easier for their most loyal customers.

 

[pregnantw4thprincess]

Here is a crazy thought. How about if you are a direct DVC member and AP holder they no longer require a park reservation.

A little gesture to say “thank you for your loyal support - we would like to make your planning just a bit easier.”

It would cost virtually nothing to make life a little easier for their most loyal customers.

I was thinking something similar for on site guests who hold an AP. We don’t own DVC (just doesn’t fit our vacation style - and we are commitment averse), but we drop a solid 25k (or more) or so a year on room reservations. Probably closer to 30 +/- per visit if I am honest with myself (we like to visit for Christmas and Easter).

Disney has the data for who comes on property and opens their wallet - they could easily have a “platinum” guest status or similar.

 

[AdamsMum]

While not a fan, I wouldn't say I hate it, I've learned to work with it.

And this is what Disney is hoping for. They may not like it in the beginning but they'll get used to it.

 

[AdamsMum]

Here is a crazy thought. How about if you are a direct DVC member and AP holder they no longer require a park reservation.

A little gesture to say “thank you for your loyal support - we would like to make your planning just a bit easier.”

It would cost virtually nothing to make life a little easier for their most loyal customers.

While that would be lovely, I don't think they care about making life easier for DVC members and AP holders. I believe they are thinking, how did they let that happen? They (DVC) don't pay for rooms (well at least I don't) i.e. loss of revenue on the ever increasing room cost per night , they (AP) just come and go as they please i.e. no more money on expensive park admissions. Once they've got you, they've got you. Move on to the next challenge. Just sayin'.

 

[nlenguyen]

At the moment, I don't mind the reservation system, but I think that when I have a park hopper, I should be able to go when I want to another park, not until 2pm. If they get rid of that. I would not mind making a reservation for the first park of the day

 

[tidefan]

While that would be lovely, I don't think they care about making life easier for DVC members and AP holders. I believe they are thinking, how did they let that happen? They (DVC) don't pay for rooms (well at least I don't) i.e. loss of revenue on the ever increasing room cost per night , they (AP) just come and go as they please i.e. no more money on expensive park admissions. Once they've got you, they've got you. Move on to the next challenge. Just sayin'.

This is called “short-term” mentality and is the problem with a lot of things these days…

 

[sethschroeder]

If Disney actually enforced an actual limit to the crowds I would be fine with it. In the end parks are overcrowded and you need to jump through hoops as well. Would be nice if they went away and the parking 2PM rule went away.

 

[DebbieB]

MK was “sold out” for AP’s today, but the rest of the year is open for all parks (As of this morning). Then I saw a blog post that said Annual Passholders not welcome by Disney. I don’t see that.

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

My take:

Using park reservations to correctly staff parks is mostly PR. It might play a part, but I suspect it's just a small one. What Disney really wants is feet in the gate and park reservations motivate that. If you can skip your reserved park in order to go somewhere else after 2 it is lost revenue for for those earlier hours, especially if it was a sold out park and that spot could've gone to someone who would've showed up earlier. Sure, there are people who will coast through just long enough to tap in, but the vast majority will see that as not worth it. They will stay awhile for a ride or two, and are more likely spend some money on a snack or visit the gift shop.

I also don't think they mind that it's frustrating to guests (I might go as far as to say it's intentionally annoying), as there are two most likely outcomes: frustrated guest changes their behavior to tap into first park and is therefore more likely to spend some amount of money, or, frustrated guest declines to buy tickets again and leaves the door open to other guests who will be the desired feet in gate. Either way, problem solved.

It's a heartless policy, but as long as demand continues to exceed capacity like as we heard last week, there's nothing anyone can do.

P.S. As a flip side to the rumored timed tickets, I wonder if someday they will release an Anytime ticket for $$$. Don't Golden Oak residents get something similar? They could only release 1,000 a day for $250/ea and just watch the bloodbath.

 

[RoseGold]

It is incredible how much hopper costs on cash tickets now, WOW. It's obvious they want to discourage hopping, but why? It equalizes crowds right?

Disney must find the hopper problematic for something, maybe the MK fireworks?

 

[nlenguyen]

It is incredible how much hopper costs on cash tickets now, WOW. It's obvious they want to discourage hopping, but why? It equalizes crowds right?

Disney must find the hopper problematic for something, maybe the MK fireworks?

Maybe. I think that park hopping tickets are just so much for what you get. Some people can get to all 4 parks in a day, others it is just 2.

 

[SL6827]

It is incredible how much hopper costs on cash tickets now, WOW. It's obvious they want to discourage hopping, but why? It equalizes crowds right?

Disney must find the hopper problematic for something, maybe the MK fireworks?

Totally agree. I thought I might add the PH to our tickets in my account. For 3 tickets it was $275. No way. I can add on more days for much less.