Buying DVC dilemma

[Wakey]

My change of heart about buying SSR over VGF is because the 1 brs seem so much more available across the resorts at 7 mo. So not only does it help us to 'sleep around" without having to have a few contracts, its not taking studio inventory from home resort folks and its a better dollar for dollar choice (for us) than buying enough VGF points to stay in 1brs there (YIKES!!!!!!). AND we get to stay in 1brs instead of studios.

This is a very good reason to buy SSR, exactly why I did. I'm going July and staying (I think I've decided) BLT and Kidani this year, it's great being able to pick everywhere and I nearly chose VGF and Copper Creek. If I'd just enough points for a studio , I wouldn't have been sitting so relaxed now awaiting my 7 month booking window to open. In fact I think BLT is gone now.

 

[Wakey]

This attached also good info for 7 month availability

 

[skier_pete]

This is a very good reason to buy SSR, exactly why I did. I'm going July and staying (I think I've decided) BLT and Kidani this year, it's great being able to pick everywhere and I nearly chose VGF and Copper Creek. If I'd just enough points for a studio , I wouldn't have been sitting so relaxed now awaiting my 7 month booking window to open. In fact I think BLT is gone now.

The "1-bedroom dillema" is very real. I am rapidly realizing how much easier it would be if we could afford to stay in 1-bedrooms. The big sticking point there is "afford". I do not have the money to justify a 1-bedroom for the 2 or 3 of us when traveling to Disney. Even though we spend more time at the resort than we use to, the use of a full kitchen and a living room would be almost wasted on us. That combined with the more than double expense of most 1-bedrooms has a hard time justifying the extra expense. Sure - SSR points are cheaper - but they are THAT much cheaper than to spend twice the amount of points. Because let's face it, the big expense of our contracts aren't actually the buy-in, but the Maintenance Fees. Sure I might have paid $20,000 for my 235 point buying in, but I'm also paying $1,500 a year - which will amount to > $60,000 across the life of my contract. Buying at SSR instead of AKV and BWV saves me $1 per point per year versus that - but if I buy enough SSR points for 1-bedrooms, I'm now saving that $1 per point ($160 a year) but pay out an extra $1,350 a year in MF. So until I can justify that I can afford a 1-bedroom regularly (may never happen), then I can't see buying SSR just to stay elsewhere.

Now, I would agree if you already stay at 1-bedrooms all the time, and have no plans to ever stay in a studio, then maybe SSR is the way to go. (This is where the rub is - will you someday want to bring a party of 5 or 6 along and need 2-studios instead of a 1-bedroom? In my case, I think even if I brought another couple - just 4 people - I'd rather spend the points on two studios than all be stuck together in a 1-bedroom.)

 

[Wakey]

Well it’s not for everyone Pete, but as I only bought for 1 or 2 beds with the kids, And for the foreseeable future we will only travel off season.(summer) it’s a no brainier for me, also I figured:

1) My SSR contract I picked up Feb was 65 a point. Much less than half a Poly or VGF, that’s still a saving on purchase price buying twice the points.
2) If I ever wanted a studio, I can rent the 50% leftover points and make enough to cover all the dues. So you can buy enough points for a 1 bed as an insurance policy with the bonus that if you snag a studio if that’s what you want, you can have a dues free year.
3) If I go in busy times, and cannot get another resort, I’d be more than happy staying SSR anyway.
4) in fact as we get older and the kids have gone, we won’t be fussed doing the parks every year and SSR will probably be our preferred choice for some winter sun, with DS a stroll away, added bonus low points so we could escape the British winters for longer.
5) I doubt I’ll ever sell whilst the rental market is so bouyant, so if we ever don’t come, I’ll get twice the rental return.
6) SSR dues are the lowest anyway, and with compound inflation, assuming similar inflation, that gap in those dues at say Copper Creek will only grow so it’s not twice the dues. But I don’t mind paying more dues because I get so much more space. Yes 1 beds are expensive at twice the cost, but again, I paid less than what people were paying for Poly or VGF for half the points.

As I say not for everyone maybe, but it’s an oft overlooked strategy, maybe not on here with all the experts (and where I personally learnt so much in my 6 month research period pre purchase when DVC was something of a mystery back then- thanks guys), but generally it is.

 

[crisi]

I've said this before regarding availability - when we bought it was 2002. 9/11 had happened, the resale market was affordable, VWL had just sold out and BCV was in pre-sales - so your resale choices were OKW or BWV. We bought BWV. At that time our kids were 2 and 3 - and we knew that Minnesota has an October school break that allows you to pretty easily pull kids for 3 days (half the class is gone in elementary school those days) and get a full week of vacation. We loved October for Disney - weather was warm but not heat stroke hot, crowds were reasonable. That break happened the week before F&W started back then and it wasn't challenging to get any room you wanted at the BW at eleven months - and not overly hard to book it at seven.

By 2005 (I think) Disney had moved F&W back to the beginning of October, and it became a challenge to get a standard view or BW view without calling day by day (which was how we used to have to do it). While we still enjoyed October (still do), it wasn't the "oh, no problem booking" that we had that first year or two.

By 2010, my kids were in middle school and it was hard to pull them from school for three days - by the time they were in high school, October trips were a fantasy - they had practice or rehearsal over the break - and tests that week that they couldn't be excused from for vacation. We moved out trips to late August.

Now they are both in college and don't travel with us and we have the freedom to travel when we want.

You are in this for the long haul - and both you and Disney may change during that time. To be willing to bet that a small resort will always have availability at seven months when you want it (because you really don't know right now when you want it), is probably not a good bet - even for one bedrooms.

 

[Dean]

The "1-bedroom dillema" is very real. I am rapidly realizing how much easier it would be if we could afford to stay in 1-bedrooms. The big sticking point there is "afford". I do not have the money to justify a 1-bedroom for the 2 or 3 of us when traveling to Disney. Even though we spend more time at the resort than we use to, the use of a full kitchen and a living room would be almost wasted on us. That combined with the more than double expense of most 1-bedrooms has a hard time justifying the extra expense. Sure - SSR points are cheaper - but they are THAT much cheaper than to spend twice the amount of points. Because let's face it, the big expense of our contracts aren't actually the buy-in, but the Maintenance Fees. Sure I might have paid $20,000 for my 235 point buying in, but I'm also paying $1,500 a year - which will amount to > $60,000 across the life of my contract. Buying at SSR instead of AKV and BWV saves me $1 per point per year versus that - but if I buy enough SSR points for 1-bedrooms, I'm now saving that $1 per point ($160 a year) but pay out an extra $1,350 a year in MF. So until I can justify that I can afford a 1-bedroom regularly (may never happen), then I can't see buying SSR just to stay elsewhere.

Now, I would agree if you already stay at 1-bedrooms all the time, and have no plans to ever stay in a studio, then maybe SSR is the way to go. (This is where the rub is - will you someday want to bring a party of 5 or 6 along and need 2-studios instead of a 1-bedroom? In my case, I think even if I brought another couple - just 4 people - I'd rather spend the points on two studios than all be stuck together in a 1-bedroom.)

It's still more but having enough points for a 1 BR but being able to make due with a studio is a decent cushion that gives one lots of options. If one has enough points for a studio magic or below at all resorts where the booking category is potentially available, they'll have enough for a 1 BR at some resorts most of the time. With having at least a 10% cushion for a studio for 7 days being what I'd consider the minimum for many gives you enough points for a 1 BR at some resorts a significant portion of the time and a 1 BR at all resorts occasionally. Plus as mentioned, owning cheaper points but using for 1 BR is significantly cheaper than owning at a more expensive resort though still more than just doing studios consistently.

 

[.landry]

It's still more but having enough points for a 1 BR but being able to make due with a studio is a decent cushion that gives one lots of options. If one has enough points for a studio magic or below at all resorts where the booking category is potentially available, they'll have enough for a 1 BR at some resorts most of the time. With having at least a 10% cushion for a studio for 7 days being what I'd consider the minimum for many gives you enough points for a 1 BR at some resorts a significant portion of the time and a 1 BR at all resorts occasionally. Plus as mentioned, owning cheaper points but using for 1 BR is significantly cheaper than owning at a more expensive resort though still more than just doing studios consistently.

This is exactly how I'm looking at it.
250pt contract. If we can get studios for the length of time we want to stay? Awesome. We rent the rest of the points to pay MFs. If we end up with only 1br options. We do that and rent the few points we will have left over (if any).
If we decide that we want to bring family or friends, we can get two (Preferred) studios. It gives us a lot more flexibility than if we bought exactly what we need for a studio at VGF.
I never thought I'd think this way. But here I am!!

 

[.landry]

This is exactly how I'm looking at it.
250pt contract. If we can get studios for the length of time we want to stay? Awesome. We rent the rest of the points to pay MFs. If we end up with only 1br options. We do that and rent the few points we will have left over (if any).
If we decide that we want to bring family or friends, we can get two (Preferred) studios. It gives us a lot more flexibility than if we bought exactly what we need for a studio at VGF.
I never thought I'd think this way. But here I am!!

And the contracts would cost about the same in the end.
Right now a 160 pt contact For VGF is
for 22.5k. and a 250 pointer SSR is 22.7k
It's kind of a no brainer for me now.

 

[.landry]

The "1-bedroom dillema" is very real. I am rapidly realizing how much easier it would be if we could afford to stay in 1-bedrooms. The big sticking point there is "afford". I do not have the money to justify a 1-bedroom for the 2 or 3 of us when traveling to Disney. Even though we spend more time at the resort than we use to, the use of a full kitchen and a living room would be almost wasted on us. That combined with the more than double expense of most 1-bedrooms has a hard time justifying the extra expense. Sure - SSR points are cheaper - but they are THAT much cheaper than to spend twice the amount of points. Because let's face it, the big expense of our contracts aren't actually the buy-in, but the Maintenance Fees. Sure I might have paid $20,000 for my 235 point buying in, but I'm also paying $1,500 a year - which will amount to > $60,000 across the life of my contract. Buying at SSR instead of AKV and BWV saves me $1 per point per year versus that - but if I buy enough SSR points for 1-bedrooms, I'm now saving that $1 per point ($160 a year) but pay out an extra $1,350 a year in MF. So until I can justify that I can afford a 1-bedroom regularly (may never happen), then I can't see buying SSR just to stay elsewhere.

This was the sticking point. AKL was the other choice for better value. But the MFs are $1pp more at SSR. And there really are SSR contacts to be had at under $90 pp. I'm not sure the same can be said for AKL. I like AKL for value studios (obviously) and I wouldn't mind staying there, in fact it will probably be one of the first places I sleep around. It's still not completely out of the question but I'm definitely leaning more towards ssr.

 

[skier_pete]

This was the sticking point. AKL was the other choice for better value. But the MFs are $1pp more at SSR. And there really are SSR contacts to be had at under $90 pp. I'm not sure the same can be said for AKL. I like AKL for value studios (obviously) and I wouldn't mind staying there, in fact it will probably be one of the first places I sleep around. It's still not completely out of the question but I'm definitely leaning more towards ssr.

We love AKV (it's where we own) and part of my thinking there is yeah the value studios (which I've successfully booked 3 times though only stayed twice) but moreso the value 1-bedrooms. If we do the step-up to a 1-bedroom it would likely be at "home".

In "Dream" season for 1-week
Value 1-bedroom AKV: 167 pts
SSR "preferred" studio: 113 pts
Poly "standard" studio: 153 pts
BLT "lake" studio: 141 pts

So while the AKV 1-bedroom value isn't cheaper than any studios, its comparable to some of the premiere studio locations.

 

[kboo]

We love AKV (it's where we own) and part of my thinking there is yeah the value studios (which I've successfully booked 3 times though only stayed twice) but moreso the value 1-bedrooms. If we do the step-up to a 1-bedroom it would likely be at "home".

In "Dream" season for 1-week
Value 1-bedroom AKV: 167 pts
SSR "preferred" studio: 113 pts
Poly "standard" studio: 153 pts
BLT "lake" studio: 141 pts

So while the AKV 1-bedroom value isn't cheaper than any studios, its comparable to some of the premiere studio locations.

What's the cheapest 1BR when you go? BWV standard? or AKV value? And do either have the fold down bed so it sleeps 5?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

What's the cheapest 1BR when you go? BWV standard? or AKV value? And do either have the fold down bed so it sleeps 5?

BWV Standard 1BR is BYOBed for the 5th. AKV-Value 1BR only sleeps 4, hard limit.

 

[skier_pete]

AKV Value 1-bedroom is 167 pts a week during "Dream" season. BWV standard 1-bedroom is 206, so about 23% more. It should be noted a standard AKV 1-bedroom at the same time is only 200 points, so the standard rooms at AKV and BWV are pretty comparable.

The AKV Value 1-bedrooms will only sleep 4 and only allows 4. Value rooms are smaller than standard/savannah rooms. The standard 1-bedrooms at AKV will sleep 5.

All BWV rooms are the same. The studios have a fold-down bed that allows those to sleep 5. The 1-bedrooms only have beds for 4, but you are allowed to bring in 5, just need to provide your own bed/bedding.

 

[kboo]

AKV Value 1-bedroom is 167 pts a week during "Dream" season. BWV standard 1-bedroom is 206, so about 23% more. It should be noted a standard AKV 1-bedroom at the same time is only 200 points, so the standard rooms at AKV and BWV are pretty comparable.

The AKV Value 1-bedrooms will only sleep 4 and only allows 4. Value rooms are smaller than standard/savannah rooms. The standard 1-bedrooms at AKV will sleep 5.

All BWV rooms are the same. The studios have a fold-down bed that allows those to sleep 5. The 1-bedrooms only have beds for 4, but you are allowed to bring in 5, just need to provide your own bed/bedding.

Ah got it. So the value rooms really are cheaper (and smaller, but that may be enough for many families with 1-2 kids), and a nice upgrade from studios in other "preferred" locations. Which is what you just said. duh.

 

[skier_pete]

Ah got it. So the value rooms really are cheaper (and smaller, but that may be enough for many families with 1-2 kids), and a nice upgrade from studios in other "preferred" locations. Which is what you just said. duh.

Yes - the downside - there's only ten of them - so quite difficult to get. (There's 10 2-bedroom lock-offs and 8 studios in the "value" category, meaning in theory if no-one books 2-bedrooms you could have 18 studios and 10 1-bedrooms.) The chances of getting one of these at 7-months isn't great.

The BWV ones - there are 23 dedicated 1-bedrooms and 37 lock-offs - meaning a lot more inventory. And believe it or not these seem to be frequently available at 7-months, at least Jan-September. (Still working on these charts.) And 1-bedroom standard views at AKV are also available much of the year at 7-months. Again, still working on all the 1-bedroom data charts. 6 more months!

 

[kboo]

Yes - the downside - there's only ten of them - so quite difficult to get. (There's 10 2-bedroom lock-offs and 8 studios in the "value" category, meaning in theory if no-one books 2-bedrooms you could have 18 studios and 10 1-bedrooms.) The chances of getting one of these at 7-months isn't great.

The BWV ones - there are 23 dedicated 1-bedrooms and 37 lock-offs - meaning a lot more inventory. And believe it or not these seem to be frequently available at 7-months, at least Jan-September. (Still working on these charts.) And 1-bedroom standard views at AKV are also available much of the year at 7-months. Again, still working on all the 1-bedroom data charts. 6 more months!

Thank you again. Your charts are AMAZING.

 

[Pluto777]

Ok, your conversation is pretty every conversation I have with DH about DVC... HAHAHAHAHA.

Ultimately, I think we didn't buy SSR then, and aren't seriously considering SSR now, for the same hedging reason (whether availability patterns may change in the next 10-15 years, when our travel to WDW is definitely at least annually. Our travel patterns may change and we may decide we want to go over Thanksgiving and Christmas more (we've only ever been between late Feb - August) and don't want to be locked in to SSR over the holidays. Given the high point costs over the holidays as well, we may decide that for those trips, we want to save our points and stay in studios. (This would also be a hedge against point reallocations.)

And @skier_pete's charts absolutely did factor into our decision!

Well assuming you owned at SSR would you REALLY be 'locked in' there at the 7, 6 or even 5 month window? I'm a newbie and certainly not nearly as knowledgeable as Pete, but based on what I see right now, even at 5 or 6 months windows (May-June) - my R.A.T. shows me a LOT of options - and not just at one of the bigger WDW resorts (SSR, OKW or AKV), but at numerous if your willing to go the 1 bedroom route. True desired studio, standard you want at a particular place is unavailable - and Beach Club is ON FIRE lately (expensive to buy and VERY hard to get at 7 months or less)

Well it’s not for everyone Pete, but as I only bought for 1 or 2 beds with the kids, And for the foreseeable future we will only travel off season.(summer) it’s a no brainier for me, also I figured:

1) My SSR contract I picked up Feb was 65 a point. Much less than half a Poly or VGF, that’s still a saving on purchase price buying twice the points.
2) If I ever wanted a studio, I can rent the 50% leftover points and make enough to cover all the dues. So you can buy enough points for a 1 bed as an insurance policy with the bonus that if you snag a studio if that’s what you want, you can have a dues free year.
3) If I go in busy times, and cannot get another resort, I’d be more than happy staying SSR anyway.
4) in fact as we get older and the kids have gone, we won’t be fussed doing the parks every year and SSR will probably be our preferred choice for some winter sun, with DS a stroll away, added bonus low points so we could escape the British winters for longer.
5) I doubt I’ll ever sell whilst the rental market is so bouyant, so if we ever don’t come, I’ll get twice the rental return.
6) SSR dues are the lowest anyway, and with compound inflation, assuming similar inflation, that gap in those dues at say Copper Creek will only grow so it’s not twice the dues. But I don’t mind paying more dues because I get so much more space. Yes 1 beds are expensive at twice the cost, but again, I paid less than what people were paying for Poly or VGF for half the points.

As I say not for everyone maybe, but it’s an oft overlooked strategy, maybe not on here with all the experts (and where I personally learnt so much in my 6 month research period pre purchase when DVC was something of a mystery back then- thanks guys), but generally it is.

65 a point???? How did you do THAT (or was it a while ago). I am looking at MUCH higher prices now. By the way I 'took the plunge' and picked up a SSR as a secondary contract as well (on top of the BLT I already owned).

 

[Wakey]

Pluto, resale has gone up circa 25% this year. I picked up a loaded contract with previous years points banked as well for 75 a point in Feb (offer was accepted Jan). Wasn't going this year, so banked this year's point to next and immediately rented last year's banked points (which I also got dues free) for 11 a point (would have got 13 a month later, oh well.. beggers cannot be choosers). This brought the price down to $64 a point with all this year's points going forward.
I was happy with the deal.
I've since bought a 25 point direct add on for $145 which believe it or not was only a few hundred more than buying resale given it had this year's points on and 100 closing.

 

[Pluto777]

Pluto, resale has gone up circa 25% this year. I picked up a loaded contract with previous years points banked as well for 75 a point in Feb (offer was accepted Jan). Wasn't going this year, so banked this year's point to next and immediately rented last year's banked points (which I also got dues free) for 11 a point (would have got 13 a month later, oh well.. beggers cannot be choosers). This brought the price down to $64 a point with all this year's points going forward.
I was happy with the deal.
I've since bought a 25 point direct add on for $145 which believe it or not was only a few hundred more than buying resale given it had this year's points on and 100 closing.

AHH, so you bought 10 months ago? Wasn't that a totally different universe (in terms of DVC prices) than the one we are in today? Heck, just the last 4 months I have seen huge price spikes - and not just on the higher cost properties, but across the board on nearly ALL DVC properties inside WDW. Matbe the rental market may be contributing to this. Perhaps as more people discover cost savings of renting DVC vs paying cash for 'regular' stays the renters might be realizing "hey, why pay when I could just OWN - and then I can rent out and use my OWN points for a vacation?" I personally went from being a nervous 1st time buyer to a second home resort owner greedy for many more points than I imagined I'd need at first in a very short time! I know of 2 very popular rental point exchange websites (not sure if I am allowed to post them on this website) as well as 2 others I'm not too sure about; but if more pop up and a true rental market exchange materializes, would this make prices go even higher or drop lower?

 

[kboo]

Well assuming you owned at SSR would you REALLY be 'locked in' there at the 7, 6 or even 5 month window? I'm a newbie and certainly not nearly as knowledgeable as Pete, but based on what I see right now, even at 5 or 6 months windows (May-June) - my R.A.T. shows me a LOT of options - and not just at one of the bigger WDW resorts (SSR, OKW or AKV), but at numerous if your willing to go the 1 bedroom route. ...

A lot depends on time of year. May - June is not hard at 7 mo. October - 1st week of January is, and is very hard for Thanksgiving and Christmas as well. My kid is in school until end of June, so May - June isn't really an option. We are wedded to school vacations - President's week, Easter week, Thanksgiving and Christmas are the big ones, and also late August because my ODD hasn't started school yet so it's not as crowded as earlier in the summer.

There was also a blog post a friend forwarded me recently about how summer isn't the high season it used to be.