Bay Lake Tower - Impact of 2nd Tower to BLT resale?

[Jhoyer5150]

Hi all,
Apologies for the continued questions for a prospective DVC buyer (I started the Poly resale thread as well). I really like BLT as far as locale and price point, despite the rooms getting mixed reviews and the theming of the hotel - or lack thereof - being an issue for some folks. I think BLT makes a solid home resort choice.

However, a 2016 Orlando Weekly article (searchable in google for "Second Bay Lake Tower), sorry cannot post the link here spoke to a rumor of a new BLT tower project that is basically as good as greenlit. Locations could be as replacement for South Garden Wing, the old Persian locale, or a replacement of the Contemporary Convention center.

Would a second BLT tower - presumably higher end than the existing one - crush resale pricing on BLT? Would the impact be similar to Boulder Ridge Villas when Copper Creek project came online? The trajectory of BRV pricing is very evident - it is now a straight line down. I think a new BLT tower would have a slightly less favorable location vs the existing tower, irrespective of which site was chosen (personal note: hope the South Garden Wing survives). But I wonder whether Disney's current high takeout rate as ROFR on BLT is in some small way a means of propping up a secondary market at BLT knowing that the price will inevitably fall once BLT II is announced.

Would be interested in any thoughts/commentary or if my worrying over hypothetical future projects is overstated. Thanks!

 

[OKW Lover]

Since that story, DVC has announced 2 or 3 new resorts. None of which are a second towner adjacent to the Contemporary.

 

[freediverdude]

It is likely that a second building at Contemporary is on the list somewhere for the future (as well as a second DVC at the Poly), but it won't be one of the next 2-3 resorts, it will be after that down the line in a decade or so.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Disney is not going to build a Bay Lake Tower II, in the new future. First they have to sell out Riviera and build and sell Reflections. Now, it took 2 years to sell out Copper Creek. Let's assume that it takes twice as long to sell out Riviera, because it has twice as many points. That is 4 years. And then lets assume Reflections will be about the same size (why should Disney give up a good thing) and that means another 4 years, for 8 years total before they could possibly bring a Bay Lake II Tower online. And that is only if it is next in line after Reflections, not 3rd or 4th down the road. Other places are more likely. It would be easier to turn Poly into a 100% DVC, or build a few more buildings there. The smaller, lower, 3 story buildings at Poly would be much less expensive to build than a high-rise such as BLT2. And I think there is some reasonably good land north and west of Coronado Springs, where they could build a DVC resort, and they might do that. There is also a lot of land west of Port Orleans and north of Epcot. Plus land north and west of Grand Floridian.

Besides, the way they are kicking their DVC owners in the teeth, I'm not sure that Riviera and Reflections will sell as quickly as DVC resorts have sold in the past. I guess we will see.

The point is, I wouldn't worry about BLT II. If they do it, it will be a different resort, and if they do it, you are probably looking a ways down the road. Not to mention that in about 10 years, people are going to be cutting back on buying SSR, Boardwalk, BCV and Boulder Ridge, because they are going to see that the end is coming for those resorts (at that point only 13 years will be left on those contracts, and they will be becoming less attractive, PLUS Disney will have raised the prices on all their new resorts, so BLT resales will be pretty attractive. In my opinion.

 

[TexasChick123]

I would definitely capitalize if BLT resale went way down because they build another tower. That means I could pick up more BLT points!!! Honestly though, it's a great resort and a great location. As long as the direct prices keep increasing, the resale prices will be higher.

BRV was already up and running when CCV went on sale. As far as I can tell, BRV isn't hurting with their resale pricing. Those contracts are still selling way above what the original owners paid. Maybe the resale price isn't as high as some other properties, but it is still significantly higher than its original direct price, AND it has less than 25 years left on it. Also, watch for DVD to start buying back more BRV once CCV sells out. I have a sneaking suspicion that they don't want too many BRV points on hand while actively selling another WL property. Once CCV sells out, I think BRV will become a prime target for ROFR.

 

[The Jackal]

The point is, I wouldn't worry about BLT II. If they do it, it will be a different resort, and if they do it, you are probably looking a ways down the road. Not to mention that in about 10 years, people are going to be cutting back on buying SSR, Boardwalk, BCV and Boulder Ridge, because they are going to see that the end is coming for those resorts (at that point only 13 years will be left on those contracts, and they will be becoming less attractive, PLUS Disney will have raised the prices on all their new resorts, so BLT resales will be pretty attractive. In my opinion.

I think you accidentally included SSR as a 2042 resort. It is a 2054 resort. Since OKW was extended to 2057, it’s not 2042 either, we’ll its a wait and see game for OKW. They are buying it back at a good rate to resell extended.

 

[skippytx]

I don't think it would affect the current resale pricing much. A second BLT tower would be priced pretty high, if anything it would improve BLT I resale value. If they're selling BLT II at 225 to 250 a point, 140 resale at BLT I looks pretty good.

The current jump in BLT resale pricing is only a couple years old (most major DVC resale price increases took off roughly 3 years ago). 2 1/2 years ago it was selling for around 100 a point or so. I bought about 2 years ago at 125 and was kinda grumpy I missed the boat by about 3 months when contracts were 105 to 115. That grumpiness went away when I saw similar contracts start going in the 135's and 140's. Now I'm happy I bought when I did. I got my direct points at 185 as well before the jumps to 191 and current 225 pricing.

BLT's high ROFR rate is due to the number of people who still want to buy BLT direct from Disney. Yes people are paying 225 a point for BLT right now. They've sold 168 direct contracts so far this year, 91 of them for more than the 75 points needed for member benefits. Someone actually bought 540 points direct. It took me about 3 months on a waitlist for my direct points to come in back in late 2017/early 2018.

BLT is a popular resort due to its location, different size villas available, and most importantly it's location. The only DVC resort you can walk to MK from. It's also as others have mentioned the second most "economical" resort when it comes to dues, and the point chart isn't terrible.

 

[CraigInPA]

As previous posters have stated, BLT II isn't on the near term horizon.

But, if it were, I'd draw the comparison between it and VWL (now BRV) and CCV. BRV's stagnant or slightly falling price has more to do with the time remaining on the contract (<25 years) more so than the direct competition with CCV at the same resort complex. If BLT II is released in 2032, then we would expect to see a similar result.

At this time, DVC is exercising ROFR on BLT at an astounding rate, surpassed only by OKW. OKW is being driven by DVC's desire to not be stuck with half the resort expiring in 2042. As a result, they are ROFR'ing everything in sight in order to upgrade them to a 2057 expiration. DVC's ROFR on BLT is about demand. BLT is consistently rated one of the most economical DVC resorts to own based upon its maintenance fees and buy in price. With its location a short walk from MK, it is significantly more desirable for families with small children than any other DVC resort. DVC is capitalizing on the demand for this resort by buying in the $140 per point range and selling for $225 per point. Nothing more.

Craig

 

[kboo]

The point is, I wouldn't worry about BLT II. If they do it, it will be a different resort, and if they do it, you are probably looking a ways down the road. Not to mention that in about 10 years, people are going to be cutting back on buying SSR, Boardwalk, BCV and Boulder Ridge, because they are going to see that the end is coming for those resorts (at that point only 13 years will be left on those contracts, and they will be becoming less attractive, PLUS Disney will have raised the prices on all their new resorts, so BLT resales will be pretty attractive. In my opinion.

I think you accidentally included SSR as a 2042 resort. It is a 2054 resort. Since OKW was extended to 2057, it’s not 2042 either, we’ll its a wait and see game for OKW. They are buying it back at a good rate to resell extended.

I think the point is that many people buy SSR to switch at 7 months to another resort. SSR resales will take a hit in 2042 - and their appeal will go down - when BCV, BWV, BRV are no longer an option. Because at 7 mo, every point owner who's trying to switch is looking at Poly, VGF, CCV, BLT, AKV. It significantly reduces the chances of successfully switching at 7 months.

 

[gluestickgirl]

I think the point is that many people buy SSR to switch at 7 months to another resort. SSR resales will take a hit in 2042 - and their appeal will go down - when BCV, BWV, BRV are no longer an option. Because at 7 mo, every point owner who's trying to switch is looking at Poly, VGF, CCV, BLT, AKV. It significantly reduces the chances of successfully switching at 7 months.

This is exactly why we decided to do our most recent add-on at the Poly (our fave) over SSR (we have some pts here but have never stayed there) - we manage to sleep around now, but once those 2042s are gone it's going to be ugly. With 3/4 of our points at the Poly, we'll have a lot more cushion. And our current SSR pts are grandfathered into the new resorts.

 

[Frederic Civish]

I think the point is that many people buy SSR to switch at 7 months to another resort. SSR resales will take a hit in 2042 - and their appeal will go down - when BCV, BWV, BRV are no longer an option. Because at 7 mo, every point owner who's trying to switch is looking at Poly, VGF, CCV, BLT, AKV. It significantly reduces the chances of successfully switching at 7 months.

And it increases the need for owners to book during the 7 to 11 month cycle. It is like a puppy chasing its tail. One thing leads to another, leads to another in a neverending circle.

 

[PsycProfPlum]

Besides, the way they are kicking their DVC owners in the teeth, I'm not sure that Riviera and Reflections will sell as quickly as DVC resorts have sold in the past.

LOL. It does feel that way.