I too got the Today show deal last year on Cecile and the canopy bed (DD already had Marie Grace). I would love if they had a similar deal this year but not holding my breath, since dolls typically do not go on sale. As for clothes, a great time to buy is when they are having sales, when they are trying to get rid of retired items to make room for new stuff, they mark them down considerably. Also if you are willing to be online at midnight central time on Cyber Monday they have deals, some years are great, others not so great but I always end up getting goodies for Christmas. My DD has lots of AG clothes but she also loves clothes from Targets Our Generation collection, the Springfield dolls collection at Michaels and matching clothes sets from Kohl's and Sears. As for furniture we have lots of stuff from Our Generation, it's just as cute but half the price of AG.
Good luck on getting into the world of American Girl, it is addicting, lol. It's the only thing my DD asks for now, with 14 AG girls, furniture, clothes and accessories, she's going to need a whole room just for her dolls soon, lol.