7 month availability getting more difficult

[gillep]

Also, has anyone noticed the UNREAL increase in resale price at AKV the last few months? In my opinion it is crazy - even compared to other DVC price increases. Anyone have any idea why it has popped up so high lately?

All of the resale prices are shocking to me, I cannot believe that we got our BCV resale contract last year February at $96/point for a 160 pt contract, the prices today are in a different stratosphere!!!!

 

[Pluto777]

All of the resale prices are shocking to me, I cannot believe that we got our BCV resale contract last year February at $96/point for a 160 pt contract, the prices today are in a different stratosphere!!!!

I agree, and as an owner I am naturally thrilled to see the company as well as DVC doing so well, but my question is about AKV specifically. While it's true all DVC resort prices at WDW have certainly gone up a lot lately (happily so), the increase at AKV (seems to me unless I am wrong) to have been even MORE dramatic percentage wise than the others. I know AKV is pretty, but like SSR and OKW it is connected only by bus - and even OKW and SSR have a boat to DS option. Any speculation about the reasons for the AKV increase specifically?

 

[Pluto777]

Checked the RAT tonight. Looks like a whole lotta walkin' goin' on.

If you had hopes for a 7 month window the last couple of days, you may just be in a world of pain...

 

[Dean Marino]

Regarding this whole discussion...

The "7th month window" (or effective LACK thereof), is exactly why my dear wife and I BOUGHT where we want to STAY. Very happy BRV OWNERS with an 11 month window . We will be booking 11 months out for MAY 2019, in about 5 days . At our HOME Resort .

 

[Dean]

Well said. Is there any chance that Disney DVD can decide to rent out the Bungalows strictly on a cash basis and return those points to the system? Maybe some of that cash could be used to offset all those unused Bungalow/Cabin points that are draining the system and loosen up the 7 month windows?

They already do that to a degree, it's called breakage but only a portion goes to the members, the rest goes into DVCMC's pocket.

"So you cant blame the SSR army on that. I think those are owners who hold something so they dont get shut out and have to stay at SSR or AKV."
-As a private in the SSR "army" I have to ask, how often are SSR owners guaranteed to always have the option of access to AKV? If this is the case, why would anyone pay the higher point AND MF cost to buy AKV vs SSR?

I'm not sure if this directly relates to your point, but I'm firmly convinced that the SSR experience and effects have stretched all the way back to the 11 month window at other resorts due to the tickle down effect.

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm not sure if this directly relates to your point, but I'm firmly convinced that the SSR experience and effects have stretched all the way back to the 11 month window at other resorts due to the tickle down effect.

Pray tell. Not sure I follow what you are suggesting in terms of the 11-month booking at other resorts being affected by SSR and SSR owners' booking patterns/travel habits.

 

[Dean]

Pray tell. Not sure I follow what you are suggesting in terms of the 11-month booking at other resorts being affected by SSR and SSR owners' booking patterns/travel habits.

Here's the thinking. At the time of SSR sales starting DVC was quite an easy book at or after 7 months out for most things and many owners weren't making their home resort reservations until after 7 months. SSR comes on board with a boatload of points AND a lower demand than other resorts on property, with only HH & VB being lower, so this floods the 7 month window. Thus those booking the home resort at 6-7 are now finding it more difficult and they move it up a couple of months. Now they're affecting the availability for those that are routinely booking at 8-9 months and so on. I'm not saying that's bad or the only factor but I am saying it's a big factor and likely the largest single factor in this situation.

 

[Bing Showei]

Here's the thinking. At the time of SSR sales starting DVC was quite an easy book at or after 7 months out for most things and many owners weren't making their home resort reservations until after 7 months. SSR comes on board with a boatload of points AND a lower demand than other resorts on property, with only HH & VB being lower, so this floods the 7 month window. Thus those booking the home resort at 6-7 are now finding it more difficult and they move it up a couple of months. Now they're affecting the availability for those that are routinely booking at 8-9 months and so on. I'm not saying that's bad or the only factor but I am saying it's a big factor and likely the largest single factor in this situation.

That makes sense. I do wonder, however, if that's just an evolution of the system as the ecosystem matures. No doubt SSR may have accelerated that change, but I can see how owners who are long-time in the system start selling contracts for resorts they learned they don't like and resale buyers (VGF, BCV, BWV, PVB, come to mind) buying where they want to stay. Absent SSR, I imagine that's how the demand would eventually shift as DVC moved from being a single-home resort to a multi-home resort offering.

 

[Dean]

That makes sense. I do wonder, however, if that's just an evolution of the system as the ecosystem matures. No doubt SSR may have accelerated that change, but I can see how owners who are long-time in the system start selling contracts for resorts they learned they don't like and resale buyers (VGF, BCV, BWV, PVB, come to mind) buying where they want to stay. Absent SSR, I imagine that's how the demand would eventually shift as DVC moved from being a single-home resort to a multi-home resort offering.

Probably some of both though I suspect without SSR (or similar) as the catalyst it would not have happened at all on a large scale but might have in smaller specific situations like VGF or VGC.

 

[MJB62676]

If you had hopes for a 7 month window the last couple of days, you may just be in a world of pain...

I'm mostly just researching things...trying to take mental notes of what has availability at 7 months.

I've been encouraged that Aulani is a lot more accessible at 7 months than I assumed it would be, for instance. I know that the 11 month window at our home resort went QUICK (poly) for first two weeks of December, so I was curious what the 7 month window would look like for the same timeframe. Lots of people walking.

 

[Pluto777]

Probably some of both though I suspect without SSR (or similar) as the catalyst it would not have happened at all on a large scale but might have in smaller specific situations like VGF or VGC.

Isn't it possible that new resorts (if they are in heavy demand), might 'help' ease the 7 month window?If a new resort is built that is more sought after, not only will the new resorts owners want to book at 11 Mo., but would it provide more slots for the 7 month pool, thus freeing up the older resorts? (Of course this assumes that the new resorts will be in higher demand).

 

[Deb & Bill]

Isn't it possible that new resorts (if they are in heavy demand), might 'help' ease the 7 month window?If a new resort is built that is more sought after, not only will the new resorts owners want to book at 11 Mo., but would it provide more slots for the 7 month pool, thus freeing up the older resorts? (Of course this assumes that the new resorts will be in higher demand).

Not sure I get your logic. Owners there will probably book their home resort and not change. Busy times will remain busy. Only declared inventory will be available for point stays. And off-site resort owners will still want to book onsite lodging. Plus renters will be hot to book the newest resort.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Fall Frenzy is self-driven at this point.

People book home resort because they know they won't be able to switch. But because everyone books home resort, no one can switch. But demand is also much higher than units available, so a tide change where people wait simply won't occur.

A new resort won't change this. Neither Poly nor CCV have changed it, and it's only getting worse thanks to bungalow and cabin points.

 

[Bing Showei]

Isn't it possible that new resorts (if they are in heavy demand), might 'help' ease the 7 month window?If a new resort is built that is more sought after, not only will the new resorts owners want to book at 11 Mo., but would it provide more slots for the 7 month pool, thus freeing up the older resorts? (Of course this assumes that the new resorts will be in higher demand).

If someone is new to DVC, regardless of how much they pay/pt for CCV, or Riviera, they're going to want to try other resorts through the early years. All of this is going tax the system.

Some argue it will net out to zero change, but if the VGF/Poly/CCV trend continues of DVD pushing small contracts (75-100 points) that essentially oversell studio capacity, it will only further exacerbate the demand issues.

 

[Dean]

Isn't it possible that new resorts (if they are in heavy demand), might 'help' ease the 7 month window?If a new resort is built that is more sought after, not only will the new resorts owners want to book at 11 Mo., but would it provide more slots for the 7 month pool, thus freeing up the older resorts? (Of course this assumes that the new resorts will be in higher demand).

They won't make any real difference. Related to 7 month availability 1 or 2 2BR units for the year at SSR will have as much or more impact than the entire VGF resort. Most who buy high end like VGF tend to do so largely to stay there and when they don't they're usually trying to stay at other high end properties. It would not make sense to buy VGF to mainly stay at OKW, SSR or even AKV, there might be one or 2 but no real numbers.

 

[Bing Showei]

Only declared inventory will be available for point stays.

This is an important point. Only 50% of CCV has been declared, so as big as that resort is, the declaration only stays enough ahead of sales to allow for new contracts to be sold. All other units remain DVD "owned" and does not act to relieve pressure on the system. Only an increase in purchased contract will lead to additionally declared rooms, so essentially supply is actually limited by demand.

 

[Dean]

This is an important point. Only 50% of CCV has been declared, so as big as that resort is, the declaration only stays enough ahead of sales to allow for new contracts to be sold. All other units remain DVD "owned" and does not act to relieve pressure on the system. Only an increase in purchased contract will lead to additionally declared rooms, so essentially supply is actually limited by demand.

It's roughly a break even and it has appeared to me over the years that the increased demand for a new resort more than outweighs the slight surplus in supply. Thus I believe that once opened, the most difficult time to get in to a resort is during phasing and the first 2-3 yeas after it's complete and 100% declared. During that time you have other members wanting to try it and new buyers at that resort doing the same. For timeshares in general it's often easier to exchange in to a developing resort through II or RCI during construction or soon after because developers tend to deposit unsold inventory into said exchange company.

 

[abby2018]

I don’t think you’ll have trouble booking AKL-we own there as well and you will love it!

We just booked at AKL Kidani for a 8 nights in January - no issues at all booking. So excited!!!!

 

[SFlaDisneyfans]

At the end of the day it comes down to flexibility. If someone has a specific vacation window that have to hit (obviously the combo of kids out of school/work vacation availability etc) then buying where you want to be is a must. If, on the other hand you flexibility in both time and accommodations, then the 7th month is a much more viable option. We own SSR, have stayed in SSR, enjoy SSR and have stayed almost everywhere else. AKV values, BWV standards, BCV and more have been available at the 7th month occasionally. Being flexible in our travel plans allows this. If you don't have this flexibility I would not expect a lot of joy in buying cheap points with expectations of staying elsewhere.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I'm a little confused since the reallocation done over a year ago created the standard view category that is pretty close to OKW and in some cases I think it's identical. They couldn't make everything equal because the at this point they can't change the overall total but they they did make a modification that leaves a category that is comparable to OKW. I agree that it should have been that for the entire resort from the start but at least they did do something within the constrainments that they have at this point.

Totally missed this!! Thanks so much for pointing it out. Woot, woot!

Edited to Add:
Okay, this may sound cheap, but I like to spread out my points as thin as I can--more trips! I have a long vacay this Nov./Dec. Right now booked at BWV standard. Here are the tallies:
BWV 199 points
OKW 206 points
SSR 220 points
Yeah, I guess most would argue that SSR is "comparable" but I guess to me it is not. Yes, I am cheap. LOL