ROFR Thread January to March 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I think of you as one of the savviest buyers on this board and I'm curious if/why you would purchase contracts at/under 50 points? The more I think about it, you lose a lot of money on the broker fees buying (and selling, though maybe selling is per point), which pushes up the high prices even higher.

I understand why you'd never want to buy a direct contract that's huge (because splitting costs are pretty low), but it seems like it's far more cost effective to buy a resale contract in the 75-150 zone than 50 and under.

A combination of personal choice, managing downside risk and my exit strategy.

Smaller contracts have a much higher pool of buyers both in a strong and weak economy. It protects your downside risk.

Second, I try to balance my holdings for estate planning purposes so there is a fairly even amount of points between my children.

Edit: by “broker fees” I assumed you meant closing costs. I don’t pay broker fees or admin fees. I always negotiate the seller pay them if they exist. And yes I will lose a contract over $225. I’m stubborn and it’s principle for me. I just move on and find a seller who agrees with my price.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

A combination of personal choice, managing downside risk and my exit strategy.

Smaller contracts have a much higher pool of buyers both in a strong and weak economy. It protects your downside risk.

Second, I try to balance my holdings for estate planning purposes so there is a fairly even amount of points between my children.

Edit: by “broker fees” I assumed you meant closing costs. I don’t pay broker fees or admin fees. I always negotiate the seller pay them if they exist. And yes I will lose a contract over $225. I’m stubborn and it’s principle for me. I just move on and find a seller who agrees with my price.

Thank you for taking time to respond. We all benefit so much from your wisdom. I’m mostly looking at 2042 resale right now and would want to hold until the bitter end—but for Aulani those are great considerations.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Thank you for taking time to respond. We all benefit so much from your wisdom. I’m mostly looking at 2042 resale right now and would want to hold until the bitter end—but for Aulani those are great considerations.

I hear you but 18 years is a long time. A lot can change. You have to buy where you want to stay but I am not a fan of the 2042 resorts (BCV and BWV) in terms of their value. I had BCV but sold it. We're a one-bedroom family so the risks outweighed the rewards of owning there for us. If you are a studio family, owning there is a must. I do believe the cliff is coming soon for these resorts. Sooner if DVC shakes things up.

I believe I read a post earlier in the week where someone was justifying a BCV and BWV purchase at current prices and that values will not drop significantly because of location and the high demand for those locations/rooms compared to their high cash prices. Their argument was flawed in my opinion as it assumes "all else remains the same". All it would take for the 2042 cliff to arrive is for DVC to announce a Yacht Club offering. "Ceteris Paribus" is great for economists. It always gives them an out for their incorrect predictions. But what time has told us is that not much remains the same.

To be clear, I have nothing against anyone buying 2042 resorts. They truly are remarkable resorts. You have to buy where you want to stay, and I would say if you are going in with the intention of never selling, then it makes sense to do it.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I hear you but 18 years is a long time. A lot can change. You have to buy where you want to stay but I am not a fan of the 2042 resorts (BCV and BWV) in terms of their value. I had BCV but sold it. We're a one-bedroom family so the risks outweighed the rewards of owning there for us. If you are a studio family, owning there is a must. I do believe the cliff is coming soon for these resorts. Sooner if DVC shakes things up.

I believe I read a post earlier in the week where someone was justifying a BCV and BWV purchase at current prices and that values will not drop significantly because of location and the high demand for those locations/rooms compared to their high cash prices. Their argument was flawed in my opinion as it assumes "all else remains the same". All it would take for the 2042 cliff to arrive is for DVC to announce a Yacht Club offering. "Ceteris Paribus" is great for economists. It always gives them an out for their incorrect predictions. But what time has told us is that not much remains the same.

To be clear, I have nothing against anyone buying 2042 resorts. They truly are remarkable resorts. You have to buy where you want to stay, and I would say if you are going in with the intention of never selling, then it makes sense to do it.

Even if they announce Yacht Club, the cost of the points and the point chart will make BCV and BWV seem like a bargain IMO….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I hear you but 18 years is a long time. A lot can change. You have to buy where you want to stay but I am not a fan of the 2042 resorts (BCV and BWV) in terms of their value. I had BCV but sold it. We're a one-bedroom family so the risks outweighed the rewards of owning there for us. If you are a studio family, owning there is a must. I do believe the cliff is coming soon for these resorts. Sooner if DVC shakes things up.

I believe I read a post earlier in the week where someone was justifying a BCV and BWV purchase at current prices and that values will not drop significantly because of location and the high demand for those locations/rooms compared to their high cash prices. Their argument was flawed in my opinion as it assumes "all else remains the same". All it would take for the 2042 cliff to arrive is for DVC to announce a Yacht Club offering. "Ceteris Paribus" is great for economists. It always gives them an out for their incorrect predictions. But what time has told us is that not much remains the same.

To be clear, I have nothing against anyone buying 2042 resorts. They truly are remarkable resorts. You have to buy where you want to stay, and I would say if you are going in with the intention of never selling, then it makes sense to do it.

I'm laughing to myself because you may be referring to my post and I do think they'll stay above $70 for at least another decade (with maybe a economy wide panic driven dip here or there)... As someone who has paid cash for BCV villas on numerous occasions, I would definitely recommend it to people who know they will go to BCV at least 5 more times (and can book 8+ mo in advance), by which point, they should have made their investment back (and you should be able to rent those points at $22+/yr for 17 years)-- I wouldn't recommend any 2042 as a good investment, but as a purchase BCV/BWV will pay for itself with about 4-6 use of years, fewer if Disney keeps jacking up nightly rates... even still, I'm not saying it's a good relative value as compared with BLT or CCV at the moment. I feel more confident about BCV staying high than BWV, but I only think BWV will slide more than $40 from it's current price over the next decade if Disney actually cracks down on commercial renters. I think we'll a similar slide in SAP at OKWE and SSR (and maybe AUL) as it gets harder to trade into the other resorts with resale points.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Even if they announce Yacht Club, the cost of the points and the point chart will make BCV and BWV seem like a bargain IMO….

Yep. That’s a fair point. A new yacht club won’t be cheap.

 

[Bfried17]

Bfried17---$104-$24268-210-SSR-Feb-0/23, 420/24, 210/25- sent 3/7, passed 3/22

Got the first one back today now just waiting for the second one to pass hopefully next week

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I'm laughing to myself because you may be referring to my post and I do think they'll stay above $70 for at least another decade (with maybe a economy wide panic driven dip here or there)... As someone who has paid cash for BCV villas on numerous occasions, I would definitely recommend it to people who know they will go to BCV at least 5 more times (and can book 8+ mo in advance), by which point, they should have made their investment back (and you should be able to rent those points at $22+/yr for 17 years)-- I wouldn't recommend any 2042 as a good investment, but as a purchase BCV/BWV will pay for itself with about 4-6 use of years, fewer if Disney keeps jacking up nightly rates... even still, I'm not saying it's a good relative value as compared with BLT or CCV at the moment. I feel more confident about BCV staying high than BWV, but I only think BWV will slide more than $40 from it's current price over the next decade if Disney actually cracks down on commercial renters. I think we'll a similar slide in SAP at OKWE and SSR (and maybe AUL) as it gets harder to trade into the other resorts with resale points.

Assuming you are only booking studios at BCV and BWV I can see how that makes sense to some. But I don’t see Beach Club staying above $70pp until 2034.

An alternative to paying cash for BCV is to just rent from owners at $22pp. That increases your B/E point drastically.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Assuming you are only booking studios at BCV and BWV I can see how that makes sense to some. But I don’t see Beach Club staying above $70pp until 2034.

An alternative to paying cash for BCV is to just rent from owners at $22pp. That increases your B/E point drastically.

I do agree if you don't feel strongly you want to use your BCV/BWV almost every year (or bank/borrow to use EOY, which we will do) until the end of the contract that renting could make more sense... but our kids school and sport schedules tend to push us into peak popular times... also, if WDW prices continue their current trajectory, I think points could end up renting for more than $25pp in a few years.

 

[mblsj]

Mblsj---$130-$11109-75-BLT-Dec-150/23, 75/24, 75/25- sent 2/28, passed 3/22

Mblsj---$130-$11109-75-BLT-Dec-150/23, 75/24, 75/25- sent 2/28, passed 3/22

Both 75 pointers passed today! Happy Friday!

 

[Chili327]

Mblsj---$130-$11109-75-BLT-Dec-150/23, 75/24, 75/25- sent 2/28, passed 3/22

Mblsj---$130-$11109-75-BLT-Dec-150/23, 75/24, 75/25- sent 2/28, passed 3/22

Both 75 pointers passed today! Happy Friday!

Good price for small BLT contracts!!

 

[Chili327]

Assuming you are only booking studios at BCV and BWV I can see how that makes sense to some. But I don’t see Beach Club staying above $70pp until 2034.

An alternative to paying cash for BCV is to just rent from owners at $22pp. That increases your B/E point drastically.

I do agree if you don't feel strongly you want to use your BCV/BWV almost every year (or bank/borrow to use EOY….

if WDW prices continue their current trajectory, I think points could end up renting for more than $25pp in a few years.

At what point does the dues outweigh the rack rate? So that even if you got the contract for $10pp doesn’t matter if the dues are higher than rack rate or even rental rate?

Is there a point where you hit peak value then the trajectory heads back down to lower values and averaging it to be less valuable if you don’t/can’t sell?

I guess what I’m saying is how many years past the 6 or so ti make it worth it does it pay off until it starts paying off less & less until end of contract?

Am i explaining well enough. Does that make sense. lol

 

[mblsj]

Good price for small BLT contracts!!

Thanks! I'm excited. But it's probably the addonitis high I get everytime I get on here with all you people. So dangerous!

 

[walt34]

At what point does the dues outweigh the rack rate? So that even if you got the contract for $10pp doesn’t matter if the dues are higher than rack rate or even rental rate?

What happens to Disney's own hotel business at this point? If the rack rates do not recover the operational expenses (essentially the dues) anymore - the business is no longer profitable. I can imagine this happening to Vero and Hilton Head (and Disney would essentially sell any hotel business at this point) but at Disney World?

Rack rates either have to go up with rising costs or Disney needs to find ways to reduce costs. Whether this would also apply to the DVC side is a good question.

 

[starsaber25]

starsaber25---$115-$25456-200-BLT-Aug-0/22, 38/23, 320/24, 200/25- sent 3/7, passed 3/22

Big News today! We passed ROFR on our first ever contract! 15 Days from submission. It really is crazy how long those 15 days felt. But we are now moving on to the next phase.

 

[Chili327]

starsaber25---$115-$25456-200-BLT-Aug-0/22, 38/23, 320/24, 200/25- sent 3/7, passed 3/22

Big News today! We passed ROFR on our first ever contract! 15 Days from submission. It really is crazy how long those 15 days felt. But we are now moving on to the next phase.

Another great price for BLT!!

 

[ShaneDJ]

You have to buy where you want to stay but I am not a fan of the 2042 resorts (BCV and BWV) in terms of their value. I had BCV but sold it.

To be clear, I have nothing against anyone buying 2042 resorts. They truly are remarkable resorts. You have to buy where you want to stay, and I would say if you are going in with the intention of never selling, then it makes sense to do it.

That is a very fair statement, and I agree.

We are aware of the risks and the pros/cons of the 2042 resorts. And we own a good amount of points at BWV because we love staying there (and we love the low point charts).

We know that the values of these contracts will dwindle over time...and maybe rapidly so. But we don't care, because we love the Boardwalk and the fun experiences we have there. We are planning to keep our BWV points until the end.

If things change in our lives (or with DVC stuff) before 2042...no worries. We'll deal with it and adjust. Life happens.

But even still today, we are as excited about our declining-in-value 2042 BWV points now, as we were the day we bought them years ago!

 

[BrianLo]

This is seasonally a time of year with more contracts on the market (because of dues) and the prices are coming down from 2021/2022 post pandemic frothy pricing.

Most sellers are still making healthy profits on their contracts unless they purchased them in the last 2-3 years.

I feel like there’s an elephant in the room next door we try not to talk about.

Eventually that buyer is going to be back on the market and I think people will stop feeling as emboldened to continue to push the deals.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

At what point does the dues outweigh the rack rate? So that even if you got the contract for $10pp doesn’t matter if the dues are higher than rack rate or even rental rate?

Is there a point where you hit peak value then the trajectory heads back down to lower values and averaging it to be less valuable if you don’t/can’t sell?

I guess what I’m saying is how many years past the 6 or so ti make it worth it does it pay off until it starts paying off less & less until end of contract?

Am i explaining well enough. Does that make sense. lol

I think I understand part of your question but not all of it. I would say that for the past 25 years, the actual cost of stay at the Crescent Lake (and Monorail Loop) hotels has dramatically increased over increase in dues…and I don’t see any reason for that trend to change going forward (assuming Disney itself doesn’t go under). My BCV points have annual dues under $8 and the cash equivalent value of my stay has never been less than $25/pt, even comparing them to a cash stay at Swolphin they have never been below $20/pt (and are often north of $30/pt)— if you know you want to stay at BCV either way, you get about $18-25 of after dues (net) value. Something crazy would have to happen to the dues (or hotel rates!) where you wouldn’t keep netting at least $15 a year or be able to rent them for at least $12-15/yr above your dues (if you’re not relying on a middleman). Selling might make sense if the current resale price is worth more than $10-15 x remaining years on the contract (perhaps slightly more if want to aggressively discount the time value of money). I feel like current prices are clustered around $8/yr, right?

 

[AstroBlasters]

I feel like there’s an elephant in the room next door we try not to talk about.

Eventually that buyer is going to be back on the market and I think people will stop feeling as emboldened to continue to push the deals.

I think I’m a bit confused by your post. Who is “that buyer”?