Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[DisVDS]

I agree with you. but this specific comment was strictly pertaining to VGC resale value, and nothing to do with which resort might be better. The fact that VGC resale prices are higher than any direct active resort price proves the unbelievable value of VGC. And a current average price of $243 is a more realistic and sustainable rise in value than the ridiculous levels it reached the last couple of years.

Based on ROFR thread, I really think the market price today is closer to the $230-235 rate. Which, when compared to VDH at $217-227, doesn't seem like much of a premium, especially when many of these contracts are loaded with banked points and comparing cash rates differences between GC and DLH (not the perfect comparison I know).

The extra 13 years is definitely something to think about in terms of valuation, but I think that it's still far enough out that psychologically people aren't really considering it as a major negative. I mean people are still buying Aulani direct...

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Based on ROFR thread, I really think the market price today is closer to the $230-235 rate. Which, when compared to VDH at $217-227, doesn't seem like much of a premium, especially when many of these contracts are loaded with banked points and comparing cash rates differences between GC and DLH (not the perfect comparison I know).

The extra 13 years is definitely something to think about in terms of valuation, but I think that it's still far enough out that psychologically people aren't really considering it as a major negative. I mean people are still buying Aulani direct...

Even if you were to buy 100 point VGC today for $230pp with 37 years left, it comes out to $6.22pp as opposed to VDH at $217pp with 50 years left would be $4.34pp for the life of the contract. VGC resale is clearly more expensive and yet more coveted. I agree that 2060 is still too far away for most people’s consideration. But it proves my point that even at $230pp, VGC resale is still valued crazy high compared, even from its fall from $333pp just a year ago. There simply is no dvc resort like it.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Even if you were to buy 100 point VGC today for $230pp with 37 years left, it comes out to $6.22pp as opposed to VDH at $217pp with 50 years left would be $4.34pp for the life of the contract. VGC resale is clearly more expensive and yet more coveted. I agree that 2060 is still too far away for most people’s consideration. But it proves my point that even at $230pp, VGC resale is still valued crazy high compared, even from its fall from $333pp just a year ago. There simply is no dvc resort like it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting

Hyperbolic discounting. Most people will not assign any value to the 15ish year delta between VGC and VDH. They care significantly about their experiences over the next 10 years, somewhat about years 10-20, and very little after that.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting

Hyperbolic discounting. Most people will not assign any value to the 15ish year delta between VGC and VDH. They care significantly about their experiences over the next 10 years, somewhat about years 10-20, and very little after that.

I agree! The delta doesn’t matter because VGC is that good. There really aren’t any resorts it can compare to. My main point is that even at $230pp, it’ holds tremendous value for both buyer and seller. Well, maybe not as much for buyers who might have bought at $300pp. But even still. Value is truly subjective.

 

[AstroBlasters]

There are a lot of stripped contracts with delayed closings being posted…. And not “priced to sell” IMO.

 

[ClaraOswald]

There are a lot of stripped contracts with delayed closings being posted…. And not “priced to sell” IMO.

I noticed this. What does it mean exactly? I noticed one I was looking at says it won't close until June.

Are people just not that interested in actually selling or what?

 

[DisVDS]

There are a lot of stripped contracts with delayed closings being posted…. And not “priced to sell” IMO.

Totally agree. Seems the sellers and brokers are not valuing the banked points, properly. I'm seeing a lot of rejected offers due to logic that XYZ contract went for $Z when it was loaded and not be willing to drop below that. Maybe this is just a hang-over from the fact that market rate has already dropped $100 from last years high and not be willing to accept that its actually lower than that.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I noticed this. What does it mean exactly? I noticed one I was looking at says it won't close until June.

Are people just not that interested in actually selling or what?

It means they have a stay booked or points rented and won’t close until after the stay is completed.

IF the price is right, it can be a good option for people who don’t this years points and need a few more months to save up.

HOWEVER, $250s for a stripped contract with delayed closing…. Get outtta here!

IMO, they should be sold at ~$212 to $222! ($18 per striped rental point depending on size of contract and UY).

 

[ClaraOswald]

I'm getting closer to wanting to make some offers but I am still so unsure what I should offer because I don't want to be unrealistic and low ball people but I also don't really want to pay the listed prices that are out there either.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I'm getting closer to wanting to make some offers but I am still so unsure what I should offer because I don't want to be unrealistic and low ball people but I also don't really want to pay the listed prices that are out there either.

Just accept that you will get a lot of no’s and make offers that are slightly below what you would actually pay so there can be some negotiation.

 

[DisVDS]

Seems like I may have made a mistake with use year. Looks like September isn't that popular and all sellers out there are trying to hold a above market price. They all want like 250+ per point... Might need to just give up and get multi-use years, but it seems like a PITA. Guess on the bright side, might mean I get to see the VDH points chart...

 

[AstroBlasters]

Seems like I may have made a mistake with use year. Looks like September isn't that popular and all sellers out there are trying to hold a above market price. They all want like 250+ per point... Might need to just give up and get multi-use years, but it seems like a PITA. Guess on the bright side, might mean I get to see the VDH points chart...

I empathize with your frustration.

I’m standing by my guess that we get the VDH point chart and price within the next 1-3 days.

 

[Chili327]

I thought i had replied to this before, but apparently not...

Based on ROFR thread, I really think the VGC market price today is closer to the $230-235 rate. Which, when compared to VDH at $217-227, doesn't seem like much of a premium

And an even better value on VDH resale (when they become available), & I mean what's the perk of buying VDH direct.??

 

[kboo]

I thought i had replied to this before, but apparently not...


And an even better value on VDH resale (when they become available), & I mean what's the perk of buying VDH direct.??

Probably FOMO/instant gratification ... and I mean, it can be real. I was planning to be a RIV resale buyer but ended up buying direct in 2019 with a pretty great incentive. The value of the FPs we got, + 3 New Years trips + unrestricted points, + choosing my UY, compared to now - when there are now finally a fair number of resales on the market at prices that are comparable to what we paid direct ... Buying RIV resale now v. buying direct in 2019 isn't really a comparison.

Whether VDH can do that in 2023 is another story, and how long the wait before there are VDH resale contracts to choose from.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I thought i had replied to this before, but apparently not...


And an even better value on VDH resale (when they become available), & I mean what's the perk of buying VDH direct.??

Occasional access to VGC and full access to Aulani and WDW resorts.

 

[BlueIsis]

Occasional access to VGC and full access to Aulani and WDW resorts.

So just to make sure I understand correctly; direct VDH is usable at RIV? It's only resale that wouldn't be.

 

[Chili327]

Occasional access to VGC and full access to Aulani and WDW resorts.

But wouldn't SSR or other (w/ longer contract) be better money spent to use elsewhere.?

So just to make sure I understand correctly; direct VDH is usable at RIV? It's only resale that wouldn't be.

Direct is usable anywhere, Resale is only available at use at original 14 locations, unless it is RIV resale then it is ONLY usable at RIV, & we can assume the same for VDH. (resale VDH will only be usable at VDH)

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

So just to make sure I understand correctly; direct VDH is usable at RIV? It's only resale that wouldn't be.

Nothing has been announced about VDH. The comments here of what will and won't be are still speculative.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

So just to make sure I understand correctly; direct VDH is usable at RIV? It's only resale that wouldn't be.

Direct at ANY resort gives you acess to RIV and all future resorts. No resale points giveyou access to RIV and future resorts.

I mean what's the perk of buying VDH direct.??

I think most DVC members use points ubiquitously at various different resorts. That's the beauty of DVC. Flexibility. I think the few that are on these boards that follow resale restriction trends are outliers. Most people would rather own direct points and not haveto think about where they can and can't use them. I think that will be the REAL perk of owning direct going forward.

 

[BlueIsis]

Nothing has been announced about VDH. The comments here of what will and won't be are still speculative.

Understood. But assuming there are restrictions on VDH; it'll only apply to resale. There are no current plans for future DVC direct sales to only be usable at the home resort (as far as we know)?