Those Partially Vaccinated for Covid...

[Colleen27]

Not saying that breakthroughs aren’t a very low occurrence.

But, you can’t just conclude it’s happening in only 0.0008% of the time. Not every 2.9M people who’s had a vaccine have been tested to solidify that denominator. Plus, you have to wait. Not enough time has passed. This is a metric that can only increase as time goes on.

And most of those 2.9 million have been vaccinated fairly recently (1.7m of them recently enough that they haven't even had their second dose yet), and as such have had limited time in which to be exposed. Since the state data said these cases happened in "fully vaccinated" people, assuming they're using the standard 2 doses + 2 weeks definition of that term, the actual sample size would be much smaller than the 2.9 million who have gotten at least one dose or even the 1.2 million who have had two doses but for whom not enough time has passed to be considered fully vaccinated, much less to be fully vaccinated, then exposed to covid, then tested and returned a positive result.

In trials, we know that the vaccines are 95%ish effective over the few months the trial ran. We don't yet know if that number will go down over time or when a decline might begin, if ever. But even if we could get to 100% vaccination in the US, that 5% failure rate would translate to about 16 million new cases in vaccinated people in the months following vaccination. If the rate is higher for variants, or if effectiveness declines over time, that number will be even bigger. It really is quite discouraging.

 

[ronandannette]

Yup. My mum is 86 and she just got her first dose last week, the second one is middle of July. She's going to be stuck in her house a lot longer than she had planned for.

I guess we'll find out based on the daily case count and death count whether this was a reasonable decision, especially for older people.

My husband is in that crazy Alberta no-man's-land where he's too old for AstraZeneca (18-64) but too young for the available quantity of Pfizer or Moderna (75+). At 67, he does have his first-dose appointment on April 11 but only if adequate supplies of Pfizer or Moderna arrive and are distributed in time.

 

[redrosesix]

My husband is in that crazy Alberta no-man's-land where he's too old for AstraZeneca (18-64) but too young for the available quantity of Pfizer or Moderna (75+). At 67, he does have his first-dose appointment on April 11 but only if adequate supplies of Pfizer or Moderna arrive and are distributed in time.

I think they're saying 55 to 64 now for AstraZeneca in Nova Scotia...until they have more data. So even though we're expecting shipments, that's not going to cover many people who are still working.

Fingers crossed on shipments actually arriving...and I'll stop there to keep myself out of politics.

 

[person]

I think they're saying 55 to 64 now for AstraZeneca in Nova Scotia...until they have more data. So even though we're expecting shipments, that's not going to cover many people who are still working.

Fingers crossed on shipments actually arriving...and I'll stop there to keep myself out of politics.

The whole shipment and availability thing is rather mixed in Canada, isn't it?

 

[ronandannette]

I think they're saying 55 to 64 now for AstraZeneca in Nova Scotia...until they have more data. So even though we're expecting shipments, that's not going to cover many people who are still working.

Fingers crossed on shipments actually arriving...and I'll stop there to keep myself out of politics.

Alberta is giving AZ based on birth year. Literally everybody I know between 55 & 64 is still working, including me and although DH is much older (and also still working), at this rate I'm likely to get vaccinated first.

 

[person]

Alberta is giving AZ based on birth year. Literally everybody I know between 55 & 64 is still working, including me and although DH is much older (and also still working), at this rate I'm likely to get vaccinated first.

Interesting priorities...

 

[wenrob]

I'm beginning to believe there are quite a few on the fence. They could go either way. Messaging could be much better too. It's still all over the place. Maybe more compliance if there hadn't been so much negativity toward the vax early on?

Maybe. It’s hard to say. I think it’s complicated. People who don’t want to get the vaccine are auto shoved into certain categories and I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. I’m a very risk adverse person, I like things to stay the same, don’t mess with anything. I was shaking when I got my first shot. I’ve always said I’d be first in line but when it came down to it I found myself suddenly on the fence. In the end a chance at some kind of normal pushed me over. Honestly, I owe a lot of that to the support here on The DIS. You have people who don’t have that. Whatever their reasons I refuse to give up on people. Eventually we’re going to get on the other side of this.

 

[redrosesix]

And most of those 2.9 million have been vaccinated fairly recently (1.7m of them recently enough that they haven't even had their second dose yet), and as such have had limited time in which to be exposed. Since the state data said these cases happened in "fully vaccinated" people, assuming they're using the standard 2 doses + 2 weeks definition of that term, the actual sample size would be much smaller than the 2.9 million who have gotten at least one dose or even the 1.2 million who have had two doses but for whom not enough time has passed to be considered fully vaccinated, much less to be fully vaccinated, then exposed to covid, then tested and returned a positive result.

In trials, we know that the vaccines are 95%ish effective over the few months the trial ran. We don't yet know if that number will go down over time or when a decline might begin, if ever. But even if we could get to 100% vaccination in the US, that 5% failure rate would translate to about 16 million new cases in vaccinated people in the months following vaccination. If the rate is higher for variants, or if effectiveness declines over time, that number will be even bigger. It really is quite discouraging.

I think your summary is correct. We need more time to determine how many people who have been fully vaccinated will still get covid.

and at the risk of making it sound even more discouraging...we don't know how long immunity from vaccines or having covid will last. At this point it can only be part of a multi-pronged approach to fighting back the virus. I only look at the vaccine as a way of vastly improving the chance of survival.

For me, the variants are the biggest issue. If new variants can be transmitted to other species, we run the risk of covid becoming endemic. Researchers in France have found that the SA and Brazil variants can be transmitted to lab mice. We have to shut down the variants we have now, and we have to stop person-to-person transfer to prevent the evolution of new variants. So far, birds don't get covid and that gives me hope.

 

[ronandannette]

Interesting priorities...

I'm not sure any Canadian jurisdiction is giving AZ to people over 65, based on concerns about efficacy. It's not about priorities - it's strictly due to supply issues, which are faced by our entire nation right now. But you might know that, you're Canadian, right?

 

[redrosesix]

Alberta is giving AZ based on birth year. Literally everybody I know between 55 & 64 is still working, including me and although DH is much older (and also still working), at this rate I'm likely to get vaccinated first.

yes -- same. Pfizer is only going to people 75+ in Nova Scotia this month, plus health care workers and front line police officers. We don't have to worry too much because all of the cases coming in are in quarantine, so the aged-based approach might be ok for us. I just hope Ontario starts dealing with places like that Amazon warehouse.

 

[person]

yes -- same. Pfizer is only going to people 75+ in Nova Scotia this month, plus health care workers and front line police officers. We don't have to worry too much because all of the cases coming in are in quarantine, so the aged-based approach might be ok for us. I just hope Ontario starts dealing with places like that Amazon warehouse.

Yes, different situation in Ontario completely, it seems...

 

[redrosesix]

I'm not sure any Canadian jurisdiction is giving AZ to people over 65, based on concerns about efficacy. It's not about priorities - it's strictly due to supply issues, which are faced by our entire nation right now. But you know that, you're Canadian, right?

Yes, I am. And yes, they're saying the Pfizer and Moderna are significantly more effective for people over 65, and since those are the people who are more likely to have a serious case they are the only ones getting them in Nova Scotia until there is more available. The AstraZeneca is only available now because SA decided it wouldn't use it because it's not as effective against the SA strain...which is their predominant strain of course.

 

[redrosesix]

Yes, different situation in Ontario completely, it seems...

I have inlaws there. they were mostly open when we were mostly closed, and we locked down before we had any reported cases...just days before but it made a big difference for us. We never really had community spread, and then we had zero cases for 4 months. It just seems like staying partially open is just delaying the pain and making it last longer. We're mostly open now, except for our borders, and they just started a 4 week hard lockdown. I wish them the best.

 

[Colleen27]

I have inlaws there. they were mostly open when we were mostly closed, and we locked down before we had any reported cases...just days before but it made a big difference for us. We never really had community spread, and then we had zero cases for 4 months. It just seems like staying partially open is just delaying the pain and making it last longer. We're mostly open now, except for our borders, and they just started a 4 week hard lockdown. I wish them the best.

I think Ontario is bound to have a harder time of it since there is still so much cross-border traffic with Michigan and New York. Last I saw, daily crossings were at about 40% of normal, but that's still tens of thousands of crossings every day between the tunnel and the two bridges, one of which is in the county with the dubious distinction of being the worst county in the worst state in the union for covid cases at the moment. Those trips being "essential" traffic doesn't mean the virus is less able to hitch a ride, you know?

 

[aprilgail]

It's math. It doesn't prevent COVID 100% of the time. It's why the CDC is still saying to wear masks even after having been vaccinated.

Get well.

I get the second shot next week and 4 weeks after that there is no way in heck that I am wearing a mask anywhere other than in a store where they force you to! I let them inject this crap into my body and in return they want me to still wear this mask- not happening.

 

[godisney14]

I get the second shot next week and 4 weeks after that there is no way in heck that I am wearing a mask anywhere other than in a store where they force you to! I let them inject this crap into my body and in return they want me to still wear this mask- not happening.

Okay.

 

[TLSnell1981]

I think your summary is correct. We need more time to determine how many people who have been fully vaccinated will still get covid.

and at the risk of making it sound even more discouraging...we don't know how long immunity from vaccines or having covid will last. At this point it can only be part of a multi-pronged approach to fighting back the virus. I only look at the vaccine as a way of vastly improving the chance of survival.

For me, the variants are the biggest issue. If new variants can be transmitted to other species, we run the risk of covid becoming endemic. Researchers in France have found that the SA and Brazil variants can be transmitted to lab mice. We have to shut down the variants we have now, and we have to stop person-to-person transfer to prevent the evolution of new variants. So far, birds don't get covid and that gives me hope.

COVID will always be around and people aren't going to wear masks forever especially after being vaccinated. We need as many as we can to reduce the numbers and lessen the severity of illness. Status quo isn't going to encourage folks to get the vax.
Half of the U.S. has had at least one dose or plans to get it. Don't think that meets our goal.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I'm over the whole 'I have to still wear a mask even with a vaccine' just wear the mask for now and move on. And I know the usual response is 'but they want us to wear masks for a whole other year!' please just wear the mask for now. Unfortunately my patience on that argument is wearing thin at this point.

The public opinion will only last so long on mask compliance I'm aware and I understand. I'm just tired of the people who already were anti-restriction being the loudest voices on the mask and vaccine front. People who are confused on what to do because they thought getting the vaccine meant they were not going to spread it or get it we can work with. The people who are anti-restriction are nearly (not quite but close) to being as much of a problem as public officials and their messaging. They can be just as damaging as listening to a public official's wonky messaging. People want to not do a lot of things once they get vaccinated whether it's been studied to be the safer thing to do or not some really don't care and just want to do what they want to do. I'm more concerned about those people right now than I am about some people hesitant about getting the vaccine.

 

[mrs. magoo]

Once again look at Israel's numbers. They have an aggressive vaccine program and they have had their cases plummet. I am hopeful that we will get to that point. I get the flu shot every year I am more than willing to get a Covid one every year if it means that I can have a normal life.

 

[RamblingMad]

I get the second shot next week and 4 weeks after that there is no way in heck that I am wearing a mask anywhere other than in a store where they force you to! I let them inject this crap into my body and in return they want me to still wear this mask- not happening.

The new Frozen song: Let it Spread. It’ll be a hit.