I would bet without Magical Express a lot more people will use Mears.
We go to both
Disneyland and Disneyworld. I think a big difference is that most people who go to DLR don't stay in the bubble their whole trip. We usually rent a car and we spend 4 nights at DLR and then another 4 nights somewhere else in CA. We usually stay in the Disney bubble for our DLR half of the trip and then move on, but with the beach only 30 minutes away a lot of people will do beach days in the middle of their DLR trip for a break from the parks etc.
Also, we looked into the Disneyland Resort Shuttle for a couple of our trips. Once we were looking from SNA thinking we would just rent a car for the last half of the trip. The other we had been to Hawaii and were flying in to LAX and spending a few days at DLR on the way home. The shuttle times were limited and there were reports of people waiting more than an hour for a bus. If I remember right, the time we looked from LAX not only was there an issue with the bus pick up time, but it was cheaper to rent a car than it was to pay for all of us to ride the shuttle. In 2019, parking at the Disneyland Hotel increased to $25 a night, which makes it harder to justify a car just sitting in the lot. A lot of people stay off property at DLR because there are so many hotels within walking distance of the parks-- I think some of those hotels have free parking.
At WDW, we usually stay 8 nights and most trips we never leave the bubble. If we were to rent a car, it would probably cost around $300 to rent a car for a week in Orlando. We usually stay deluxe so parking is $25 a night--- so there is another $200. So renting a car and parking it would be another $500 on the trip, on top of Disney's outrageous room rates. That $500 is pointless since we typically stay in the Disney bubble and never leave. If we did that and went to that expense for a car, I think I would be compelled to go explore outside of WDW some--- Universal, eat off property- maybe a trip to Charley's steakhouse or Bahama Breeze if they are still there-- haven't been to either one in years. Magical Express has been around at least 15 years. Before that time, since we had to rent a car we would usually leave WDW property. Since Magical Express started, I think we have been to WDW at least 10 times, and we have left property once.
I guess we could rent a car, drive to WDW--- drop it off at WDW the day we arrived and then rent a car at WDW to drive back to the airport-- but that would involve a waste of time between going back and forth from the car rental place to the resort. We hate wasting park time.
The train does not sound like a viable alternative. It will only stop at Disney Springs so we would have to drag our luggage to the train, get off at Disney Springs, drag our luggage off the train, drag luggage to bus stop, wait for a bus etc. Plus, how many times a day are those trains going to run?
Uber/lyft can be a pain for families with small children that are in car seats and a lot of luggage. It can also be hard for disabled people. Also, a lot of families go to WDW in big groups. ME makes it easy.
Mears has said they will continue to provide service. I think their shuttles are round trip $40 per person. Presumably since they own the buses maybe they will have their own service with the buses we are all used to. Of course, that is not going to include the luggage service I'm sure which on its own is a loss.
I know full well that we pay for Magical Express in our room rate. Without Magical Express and preferably the luggage service, what justifies paying more than $600 a night which is their deluxe rack rate? I just looked and a room with a "view" at a deluxe for this fall was coming up at over $700 a night! Not even free parking at those rates. No more extra magic hours (we liked the evening ones). Pretty sure that extra 30 minutes will be pointless and spent trying to weave around all the non resort people waiting for their time to get in, or in the typical Disney "race" to a park's popular ride. I would bet those room rates aren't going down because Magical Express is eliminated even though those rates pay for the service-- in my mind this is a way to recoup Covid losses--- charge the same room rate, but eliminate a major expenditure (which was rolled into the rate) which was a huge perk to the guests. Are they going to offer a lot more room discounts with Magical Express eliminated? Are they going to use the savings to hire back a lot of the great CMS who have been laid off and are hurting right now or to help them? What about all the ME bus drivers and employees? Will they all still have jobs with Mears with Disney suspending the service, or is this just going to put that many more people out of work?
I know they are in a terrible place right now with Disneyland closed for close to a year now and no signs it will re-open any time soon; Disneyworld having been closed for an extensive period; and reduced capacity now with it re-open-- but a little honesty would have gone a long way. The Disney spin of claiming that the elimination of ME is due to vacationers "having more options to choose from for transportation" is garbage. Be honest. Say due to our business interruptions and reductions due to Covid-19 we have made the difficult decision to eliminate ME, as it costs (whatever amount) to operate per year. I understand they always want to paint a rosy perfect picture and we all love the Disney happiness bubble, but sometimes you just need to tell the truth. I would rather see them keep the service, but charge extra for it than eliminate it entirely.