Some perspective on the risk of dying from coronavirus versus normal annual risk

[kdonnel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52543692
A Cambridge University statistician has created an interesting chart showing the risk of dying from coronavirus compared to the normal annual risk of dying for ages 0 - 100.




So if you get and survive a case of Coronavirus, you have about the same chance you will die from another cause sometime in the next 12 months.

Putting risk in perspective is going to be essential for individuals and decision-makers, the authors suggest.

 

[SaintsManiac]

 

[jlwhitney]

This basic concept is what may of my family and friends have talked about.

 

[Jennasis]

Same thread, new title. And the beat goes on...

 

[shelemm]

"So if you get and survive a case of coronavirus...."

I'd rather decrease the chance of getting COVID first, and then take my chances with all the other stuff.

I try to drive safely, don't drink, don't smoke, and I am not a gang member. Except for the Disboard.

Plus I got news for you, there is zero percent chance I die in my 20s, 30s, and 40s. But when I go I am going to be the most sanitized, thoroughly hand-washed corpse they've ever seen.

 

[Heather07438]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52543692
A Cambridge University statistician has created an interesting chart showing the risk of dying from coronavirus compared to the normal annual risk of dying for ages 0 - 100.

View attachment 493316


So if you get and survive a case of Coronavirus, you have about the same chance you will die from another cause sometime in the next 12 months.

That graph is disingenuous to frame it like that visually. The death rate of Coronavirus needs to be added to the normal death rate. No? It's adding to the death risk not replacing it. Still, the risk is probably less than what many people perceive.

I wish they tried to get more accurate risk numbers from the start. It's been all over the map and a grey area. 1 in 200? 1 in 50? 1 in 500? We're going in to the 3rd month. Can we get some solid odds yet.

 

[hopemax]

So since we are talking risk factors and how society reacts. Why did we treat the Boeing MAX issue the way we did? Why do we ask people to evacuate during hurricanes, why do we trace outbreaks like E. coli, listeria. Why are so many products and autos recalled for safety issues.

The people who die from these are way less than the .5-1% that will die from this.

I will continue to not play Russian roulette. I will continue to believe that in a civilized society we work toward reducing risk wherever we can. Think what the world would look like if we simply accept 1% mortality rates. Like on our airplane rides to WDW and our rides on Space Mountain. I mean, you could have died on your car ride to the airport, so why are we doing anything about the rest?

 

[longboard55]

55000 died in a month, that is a lot, I do not care how you spin it

 

[rigs32]

Many people will survive with permanent lung damage or other ailments that will affect their life span and quality of life that we don't even know about yet. I'd like to not be one of those people, either.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

You aren’t reading that chart correctly. It’s saying that Covid deaths are essentially matching regular death rates. In the end, it isn’t one or the other, it’s a combination of both. It means when you add Covid deaths, the overall death numbers will rise and will be higher than normal.

ETA: I see you’re saying you have the same chance of either of these happening and you’re correct. However you’re doubling your chances of dying from something in this combination. I don’t think anybody likes those odds.

 

[Heather07438]

You aren’t reading that chart correctly. It’s saying that Covid deaths are essentially matching regular death rates. In the end, it isn’t one or the other, it’s a combination of both. It means when you add Covid deaths, the overall death numbers will rise and will be higher than normal.

ETA: I see you’re saying you have the same chance of either of these happening and you’re correct. However you’re doubling your chances of dying from something in this combination. I don’t think anybody likes those odds.

It's like saying your chances of dying from Covid is almost equal to all other things combined. Not so good.

 

[Someluck]

For me, there's the idea of dying alone in a hospital with no family members by my side that motivates me to take care of protecting myself and others from this disease. My odds of dying may not have changed much, but the manner in which I will experience it could be much different with Covid.

 

[Pumbaa_]

The chart, imho, is meaningless. There is not enough data to make those assumptions.

 

[China Expat]

Cancer and car accidents are not wildly contagious.

 

[Lynne M]

That chart is an excellent example of how you can use statistics to prove any point you'd like.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

From what I understand, you are looking at the chart wrong. The COVID-19 death rate is IN ADDITION to the normal death rate.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

This suggests that COVID-19 very roughly contributes a year’s worth of risk. There is a simple reality check on this figure. Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK. The Imperial College team estimates that if the virus went completely unchallenged, around 80% of people would be infected and there would be around 510,000 deaths.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1257202717853978624

 

[Lynne M]

This is a mindset I don't understand - "we're all going to die anyway, so why worry about the coronavirus."

When my brakes stop working, I don't say "I'm going to die someday anyway, so I'm going to drive over to McDonalds with no brakes."

As a society, we do all kinds of things to reduce the risk of death. We get physicals. Our doctors order screening tests. We regulate car safety, airline safety, train safety. We regulate the sale of drugs. Of alcohol. I could go on for days.

That's why I don't get why people seem to think there are only two possible responses to the coronavirus: make everyone stay at home until the end of time, or open everything. take no precautions, and whoever dies, dies. There's a very, very large middle ground. In my state, there are criteria set for each phase of re-opening, and when a county meets the criteria, they begin the next phase. Simple. Reasonable. Understandable.

At the order of our governor, we're wearing masks when we go out in public. I hate it. I have asthma. It's horribly uncomfortable. But I do it because it's a simple thing that we in the community can do to protect each other. Is my temporary discomfort a reason to risk someone else's life? No.

That's more or less how we do it with other risks in society. We work with experts to find a reasonable balance of safety and freedom, and act accordingly. I don't see why that's a problem with COVID.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

Cancer and car accidents are not wildly contagious.

Bingo. And supposedly we're just supposed to accept doing nothing about Covid-19 because some other thing is risky too when in fact we've spent millions upon millions on various cancer research projects, have various screening tests and the like and pass laws governing driving and have probably spent millions on stop signs and traffic signals and the like to mitigate traffic deaths.

 

[a1tinkfans]

That chart is an excellent example of how you can use statistics to prove any point you'd like.

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