pclvnmcky88
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Apr 28, 2015
In for my first Marathon! Question - has anyone signed up for the Castaway Cay Challenge without a cruise reservation? how long do you have to put it in?
And what was your longest run, # of long runs, length of training cycle?
Fourth -(secret goal) Most calculators have me finishing at about 5:30 - 6:00 based on my 10k time. I would love to be able to get to a sub 5 hour time. but this is going to require lots of dedication!
Meet @DopeyBadger in person, missed him in 2017, I was too late at the Disboard Meeting Point
Sounds like a few of us are running Chicago!
Yes! My first time running Chicago and a marathon outside of Disney
Thanks. My 10k time was 1:12:34 with about 3 weeks of training. I am hoping given that I have months to train for marathon I can do at least same but I am signed up for the half marathon in November(wine and dine). My thought is that I will see how that goes for me. If I find that I do not do well (with knee and what not) I will see about changing my entry for January or I will just resign myself to mostly walking the marathon and having a good time with characters until they sweep me off. LOLTo add another data point to your calculators:
I'd say to feel comfortable with a sub-5 M goal, you'd want to have fitness around a 1:01:30 10k or a 2:20 HM.
The aggressive value is calculated from a Riegel R of 1.06, high end is R of 1.07, low end is a R of 1.1, and average is 1.15. Per data from this review (link), a 1.15 is the 50 percentile, 1.1 is about the top 25% converters, 1.07 is top 10% converters, and 1.06 is top 6% converters. "Converters" being taking your HM time and equating it to a M finish time. The graph below shows the distribution of conversions from HM to M and the associated R value. Most online calculators use 1.06, and McMillan uses 1.07. But the reality of this data set shows that only 10% of runners (in this particular data set which is about 1000 people in Williams and 2000 people in Vickers) actually achieve even McMillan's value using a HM conversion.
So I basically need to aim for a 2:20 or less half in November in order to have any shot at a sub 5 (and when I say that I would be ok with 4:59:59 LOL) in the marathon?
Per usual @DopeyBadger - your answer was so super helpful. And makes 26.2 seems much more attainable - and the training much more approachable.
My fitness is decent. I did a half in February (trained on a whim when the govt shutdown happened) - and managed a 2:09:42.
I wouldn't necessarily say "any shot". If you can run a HM in 2:20, then runners who have done similarly would have the following profile per their datasets:
6% of them would run the marathon in 4:52 or less
10% of them would run the marathon in 4:54 or less
25% of them would run the marathon in 5:00 or less
50% of them would run the marathon in 5:11 or less
So you'd have 1 in 4 odds, if you were able to run a 2:20 HM. The weather can easily play a role though. As W&D could be super cold and great running weather, whereas marathon day could be crazy hot/humid (or vice versa is possible as well).
In that Williams article, they looked at the trends associated with those who were better converters and how their training was designed. The conclusions were:
Conclusions
The conclusions we can draw from this:
-If HM performance is equal, women are likelier to finish with a faster M time than men.
-Runners of all abilities are capable of a 1.06 or less, and roughly the top 10% of all subgroups from 1:20 HM'ers to 2:00 HM'ers were roughly the same R value (or relative performance).
-Faster runners are better converters with a lower R overall average. Makes sense then why Rigel came up with 1.06 since the elite runners available to him would have been a similar pool to the faster runners in Williams dataset.
-Runners on the slower side of the HM performances tend to have more variability as a group because of the bad converters in their groups, not because of the lack of good converters. So more people on the slower side of HM performance training inappropriately for marathon performance.
-Roughly 5:00 to 5:30 hours per week on average for a marathon training plan is considered "typical" or "sufficient" by Williams.
-Those who run more than 5:00-5:30 hours per week are more successful at being good converters than are runners who run less than 5:00-5:30 hours per week.
-Those who do 5L around 100 barely appear different than those around lesser or higher numbers. The 5L would suggest it is lower on the predictive nature than other variables.
-Those who have 5L be a lower % of total mileage from 16 weeks tend to be the best converters. The faster runners also tend to be the ones with lower %5L values. Relying less on the long runs and more balance yields a better relative performance.
-Those who train at 40-80 seconds slower than race pace more often than not will be a good converter and have a R less than 1.15.
So a good marathon plan is:
-Over 5-5.5 hrs in duration per week on average for 16 weeks.
-Has a 5L% of 9-11%. So if you do 100 miles as 5L (or five 20 milers), then you better be doing 1000 miles in the 16 weeks of training (or 63 miles per week on average). The more you diverge from this, the worse your HM conversion becomes. Although, you can still be successful at a lower 5L like 60 miles if the 5L% is still in the 9-11% range (or 600 miles total and 38 miles per week) as long as that duration is over 5-5.5 hours for your paces.
-Has you training at roughly 40-80 seconds slower on average for the plan than marathon race pace.
Marathon Weekend Goals
I've done this the last couple years and thought it was a good experience. Full disclosure this time (in 2016 I was sneaky), I am saving your responses to be revealed at a later time closer to race day.
Now that registration is out of the way for most of us, I'd love to hear your goals for Marathon Weekend. Here's how I see goals. They're personal. You chose it because that goal means something to you. It's important to you. Which means your goal is important to me. No goal is too big or too small. The person's goal to finish their first 5K and another's to take down Michael Wardian's Dopey World Record are equally important to me. So, I'd love to hear yours. And yes, even the super secret I don't want to admit it goals.
Here are some ideas if you haven't thought about it:
Finish my first: 5K, 10K, Half, Full, Goofy, Dopey
Finish with a time goal
Run a race with a family member
Overcome an adversity in your life
Drink a beer or margarita at a certain mile marker
Participate in DATW (Drinking Around the World) *Happens on Monday in EPCOT (ask @FFigawi and @Keels about it)
Beat a family member
Get as many character photos as possible
Get a character photo with a certain character
Do lots of park time and enjoy the races
Have fun
So, let's hear them! What's your goal? Remember yesterday (or a few weeks ago) you signed up for a race during marathon weekend for a reason, so what is it?
So I signed up for Goofy.
1. Goal will be to run the half with DS/Take it very slow and get lots of pictures.
2. Go back an successfully complete the training I've lined up for the race. (I have two of your plans that I am tweaking based on current fitness level, but am starting with a 6 week hr based plan on my treadmill)
3. Run the Marathon Hard. I haven't run an A marathon race in a long time. Since my Dapper buddies won't be there I've decided to train to run hard at Disney. Goal is a 3:30 full and stretch goal is 3:20.
"Just" the marathon is such a Disney thing. I have already said it multiple times since I ran Dopey in 2018. At this point I am seriously thinking about putting it on a tank for the race.Goals:
More likely, doing "just" the marathon or Goofy after this.
Apologies if this has been discussed before, but if someone were in the fence about signing up for their first marathon....what training plans did you all use? And what was your longest run, # of long runs, length of training cycle?
I’ve got some big work stuff, so was hesitant to add marathon training to that.....but #FOMO.
Me too!
Awesome!!!
Chicago will be my 5th marathon (3rd outside Disney), but first marathon major. Maybe we can coordinate a Dis meet.
Wow, OK I had to re-read that a couple times. As far as the weather, I'm from south florida, the hotter and more humid, the better. I am very used to that and it doesn't give me any anxiety. Cold on the other hand and yeah, I'm concerned it will be too cold for me in January. My two "longish" runs in the last month have been almost at Noon with no problems. (eta: plus I have asthma so in the cold i don't breathe as well)
As for the average per week. I feel like I have A LOT of catching up to do 63 miles per week? I am not hitting 38 miles per week now, I've been usually doing 4.5 miles 2x to 3x a week. I assume I can build up from this but I am trying to take it slow. So I need to aim to run for 5-5:30 hours per week then? I'm sorry if this is a stupid question but what is 5L?
Right now on the treadmill mornings I am doing 60 minutes and can comfortably do about 4.31 to 4.5 miles. I have the treadmill set to jog 3.5 and run 5.2 speed. I feel comfy at that running speed and it appears that on average its the same pace i kept at the 10k, although I was a bit faster from excitement/adrenaline etc. I have been doing run/walk but not at any set interval, meaning I'll start out slower like 2/1 then i'll go to 4/1 or 5/1. So perhaps I need to stick with on kind and just try the full 60 minutes like that?
Perhaps I will re-arrange my secret goal to just being able to finish!! LOL