2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest
Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! It's one of my favorite things to do pre-race. It's also something I do with everyone else on their training plans. Go through the process on deciding race day goals and pacing strategies all based around a possible finish time. I want to hear from everyone.
But here's the twist this time around- It's going to be a season long contest. I'll explain more below.
Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. Here are some rules:
1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
2) Only one prediction per person per race/TT.
3) Predictions must be in by 48 hours prior to the race or time trial.
4) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:45:00, you can guess 3:45:01, or the same time (3:45:00).
5) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
6) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time (unless pre-decided otherwise), then there will be no time recorded for that race.
7) The winner receives a mystery item via email.
8) An important one - To be eligible to win, a person must predict in at least one half marathon race and the 2020 Disney marathon.
I reserve the right to change these rules however I see fit, as after all, this is for fun.
How to play?
Simple explantation
You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself. Don't worry I'll remind you.
Longer explantation on how it'll work
-You choose how fast you think I'll run a race when we're about a week out from the race itself.
-Whatever the difference is (negative or positive) from my official time to your prediction is your rolling value from one race to the next.
For example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 26:45 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a -1:45. You predicted my time too fast (thus negative) by 1:45.
As a different example, let's say you predict I will run a 25:00 min 5k. And I run a 24:30 min 5k. Your difference from that race is a +30 seconds. You predicted my time too slow (thus positive) by 30 sec.
The goal is to be the person closest to 0:00 at the end of the season. So if you were -30 seconds on the 5k, then maybe on the next race you'll want to guess 30 seconds slower than you actually think I'll run to try and get back to 0:00.
-You do not have to participate in every race to be eligible to win at the end. You are only required to play in at least one half marathon game and the 2020 Disney Marathon.
-But to incentivize you to predict in more races, for every race you play in above and beyond the required minimum of a HM and the M, you get a bonus 15 seconds. That means if someone plays in 6 total races (HM, M and 4 other races), then they'll get 60 bonus seconds (15*4) off their final time when the game is over. The bonus will not be applied until after the Disney Marathon. The bonus will not hurt you. So if you have 60 second bonus time, and you end with a +/- 45 second final score, then you end with 0:00 as your final adjusted score.
In the event of a tie, then the bonuses will be removed from each of the tied players to the unadjusted final score. Whomever is closer to 0:00, will be the winner. In the event, that after removal of bonuses the unadjusted values are still tied, then it will be decided by some game decided by Gigi at a later point.
Current Race Schedule
This may or may not change based on how the 2019 season plays out.
4/12/2019 - One Mile Time Trial (This is happening)
5/25/2019 - Brat Fest 5k (This is happening)
6/15/2019 - Hot2Trot HM (This is happening)
9/22/2019 - DoLittle 5k or HM (Depends on how training is going up till then, but likely to be the 5k)
10/20/2019 - Haunted Hustle HM (This is happening)
12/1/2019 - Last Call HM (Based on training design, this may be a training run or not occur at all)
1/12/2020 - Disney Marathon
Since to be eligible to win at the end, you're required to play in at least one HM there are a few along the way. The Hot2Trot (June) and Haunted Hustle (October) are the only ones that I feel very confident I will be doing. The DoLittle (September) and Last Call (December) may or may not happen. So keep that in mind if you're strategically selecting races along the way.
This schedule is based on me not getting injured between now and Disney. I'll do what is in my best interest when it comes down to the race. But even if Last Call ends up being a training run, it'll still be eligible for a prediction and thus eligibility purposes.
*****
So first up is the One Mile Time Trial on 4/12/2019. You are free to make a prediction if you'd like. On 4/12/2019, I plan to warm-up for 30 minutes with some strides. I will then start a new lap and run a mile based on my Garmin GPS. The route will likely have about 10 feet of hills in it total. The official time for the Time Trial is whatever that individual split is. I may or may not run a few extra seconds hard before or after the split causing Strava/Garmin to possibly pick up on a faster mile split. But the official time for the purpose of the prediction game is whatever the 1.0 mile split from the Garmin GPS is based on me pressing the lap button. My lifetime fastest mile is a 6:01 set on May 13, 2017 during the Bunny Head 5k Time Trial.
*Corrected date to 4/12/19 (Friday)
I'll post any predictions for the one miler here:
5:09 -
@SarahDisney
5:33 - Gigi
5:40 -
@canglim52
5:42 -
@QueenFernando
5:45 - Me
5:48 -
@MissLiss279
5:49 -
@SheHulk
5:50 -
@Chaitali
5:51 -
@cburnett11
5:52 -
@FFigawi
5:52 - Steph
5:53 -
@KSellers88
5:54 -
@mrsg00fy
5:55 -
@JAMIESMITH
5:56 -
@DisMatt0483
5:57 -
@flav
5:59 -
@PkbaughAR
6:00 -
@Jules76126
6:01 -
@TeeterTots
6:02 -
@roxymama
6:03 -
@ZellyB
6:07 -
@surfde22
6:13 -
@lhermiston