To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)
- Thread starter DopeyBadger
- Start date
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
It's true. Per the news, "the temps are not safe for humans". So, I guess running for 2.5 hours would probably not have been wise...
I don't like -10 to 0, but I can tolerate it for a few times a year I guess. The cold doesn't bother me as much as the snow/slush/ice as it forces me to change my stride and work harder than I'd like to. So I'm hopeful that while still cold, if some of the ick to the roads has cleared it will make the 18 miler a tad more tolerable in those temps.
Say it with me... Florida.... Florida.... Florida.... we're almost there!
roxymama
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2015
Perhaps a watch that tazes the wearer for running too fast or slow?....no, I think I like perceived effort better.
Please stay safe my friend...it's cold out there and I'm in the balmy "south" compared to you. We were at -3 degrees this morning.
I haven't run outside in what feels like a year now (I'm being overly dramatic) I feel like it will be hard to "hold myself back" the first day I get to go outside. I'm sticking with my treadmill until it gets a bit warmer. So have you started packing yet?
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Muhahaha, don't give me any ideas. Although I will say I did come up with a new one for my gym.
-Outdoor paths that are heated or covered so that on non-snow days they remain snow/ice/slush free. You still run in the cold, but have a nice clean path to go as fast as you want. This is a must for me, and if I can't build an outdoor path for this at my gym, then the gym ain't happening!
Oh, boy was it cold...
I can imagine. A testement to your will and desire to keep training in my mind because I'm not sure how many miles I could log on a treadmill...
So have you started packing yet?
I got my spreadsheets going, but nothing yet. Steph has all her clothes picked out and practically in the suitcase already. Guess she's getting tired of the sub-zero temps and snow...
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
And finished!!!
That was a tough 18 mile max run and easily goes down as one of the top 10 worst runs I've done. It was -8. There was snow on the ground. And ice. And slush. And crazy cars. And crazy animals. And school buses. And more ice/slush/snow. And 15 mph wind. Oh and it was -8, did I mention that???
Regardless, I got it done and I'm glad to have that one behind me. My paces did slip at the end (although average overall pace was only +3 from goal). The snow/ice/slush took a toll on my legs during the run, but I wasn't overly sore. It was just mentally exhausting to have to constantly stare at the ground for safety reasons. I prefer eyes up and zoned out, so this was not my kind of run. The one snafu is that I tucked my tights into my socks to keep all exposed skin covered, but it unfortunately gave me some cuts on my ankles... Oh well, it will heal in no time I'm sure. The rest of the plan will be a hodge podge going forward because I want to balance the fitness gains and recovery necessary to attack Dopey (figuratively and literally, no I kid) with my full extent.
That was a tough 18 mile max run and easily goes down as one of the top 10 worst runs I've done. It was -8. There was snow on the ground. And ice. And slush. And crazy cars. And crazy animals. And school buses. And more ice/slush/snow. And 15 mph wind. Oh and it was -8, did I mention that???
Regardless, I got it done and I'm glad to have that one behind me. My paces did slip at the end (although average overall pace was only +3 from goal). The snow/ice/slush took a toll on my legs during the run, but I wasn't overly sore. It was just mentally exhausting to have to constantly stare at the ground for safety reasons. I prefer eyes up and zoned out, so this was not my kind of run. The one snafu is that I tucked my tights into my socks to keep all exposed skin covered, but it unfortunately gave me some cuts on my ankles... Oh well, it will heal in no time I'm sure. The rest of the plan will be a hodge podge going forward because I want to balance the fitness gains and recovery necessary to attack Dopey (figuratively and literally, no I kid) with my full extent.
pixarmom
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2009
Perhaps a watch that tazes the wearer for running too fast or slow?....no, I think I like perceived effort better.
Please stay safe my friend...it's cold out there and I'm in the balmy "south" compared to you. We were at -3 degrees this morning.
I haven't run outside in what feels like a year now (I'm being overly dramatic) I feel like it will be hard to "hold myself back" the first day I get to go outside. I'm sticking with my treadmill until it gets a bit warmer. So have you started packing yet?
Hello Southerner! I will admit to an overwhelming urge to run outside on Saturday in the beautiful snow. But I decided against it because I'm the first person who would fall. No, actually I guess I'm now the second because my husband fell on the ice this weekend and we think his wrist might be broken. I too will stick to the treadmill.
Just wow. At least you know you are super tough! As mentioned above, it's all treadmill for me. I am not from this climate originally and it's taken me many years (since first becoming a Badger!) to adjust. Now, 25 years later, I have all the gear but still get cold easily. Decided that if I couldn't run, I would at least take the dog out for 30 minutes in the snow. Bad idea - IT band immediately froze up and took 24 hours to feel better. I'm with Steph . . . packing those suitcases!
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DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
You are a crazy man!! Impressive but crazy.
I'm a completionist, so if it's in me to finish it I'm going to do it. But it would have been nice to turn that off today.Our southern belle is from Chi-town.
No at a broken wrist! That's too bad! Ugh...
I will add that I spent most of my childhood in Georgia where it barely got below 40, so I can understand the adjustment. It's taken many years to get "used" to this, but I can totally understand being risk-adverse too!
Florida can't come soon enough!
canglim52
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2016
Just to give you a friendly FL weather update, we hit 87 today!! It's almost Dopey time
Our southern belle is from Chi-town.
No at a broken wrist! That's too bad! Ugh...
I will add that I spent most of my childhood in Georgia where it barely got below 40, so I can understand the adjustment. It's taken many years to get "used" to this, but I can totally understand being risk-adverse too!
Florida can't come soon enough!
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
DopeyBadger's 2017 Dopey Challenge Prediction Contest
Well, I had so much fun with the prediction contest for the October marathon I decided to give it another go. Below are the rules and regulations:
General Rules
-All predictions must be made between 12/19/16 and 12/28/16 in this journal (unless verbal to me).
-Only one set of predictions per person.
-A person should predict 5k, 10k, Half Marathon, Marathon, Goofy and Dopey finishing times (not paces). In addition, a tie breaker of final cumulative time Dopey rank will be used as calculated by @opusone.
-There is no limitation on guesses and there closeness to others. Therefore, two people can make the same exact prediction for any of the times (ie. two people can predict a 5k time of 25:00).
-The official RunDisney time for William Blaser for the 5k, 10k, HM, and M will be used as the official finishing times for this contest. The Garmin/Strava times do not count. The Goofy time is the HM + M and the Dopey time is 5k, 10k, HM and M combined.
-A person's Goofy guess (or Dopey guess) does not have to be a sum of their individual race times. Therefore, a guess of 1:00 for HM and 2:00 M does not mean you have to guess 3:00 for Goofy. You are free to "hedge" your bets with a different time.
- @roxymama has graciously volunteered her time to update the standings after each race and give the final standings after all 6 events have been completed. I will inform her of the official race time (or she can look it up herself) and she will post on here the standings from that day's event as well as the current total standings (with all completed events totaled up to that day).
Points are accumulated in the following manner:
--The time difference between one's guess and the official time as recorded by RunDisney will be calculated.
--All time differences will be calculated as absolute differences. So, being 5 seconds too fast or 5 seconds too slow are both equal to being off by 5 seconds. There are no price is right style rules.
--Everyone's time difference for each individual category will be ranked against other participants. The person with the closest guess to the actual time (therefore, the smallest difference between guess and actual time) for an individual race is given the most points. The 2nd closest person is given the second most points. etc.
--Each individual event's time difference is calculated separately and ranked separately from other events. Therefore, the time difference/rank of the 5k guess has no impact on the time difference/rank of the Half Marathon.
--The highest number of possible points is based on the number of participants. If there are 27 people playing, then the person with the closest 5k guess gets 27 points. The 2nd person gets 26 points. etc. Same for each of the other events (10k, HM, M, and Goofy)
--If two people have the exact same time difference, then they share the total points. The next person in rank then receives less points (determined by the number tied at the same time difference). Therefore, if 10 people are playing and the top time difference of 7 seconds is shared by 3 people, then those 3 people all get 10 points for that event. The next person in rank (4th) gets 7 points.
--The person with the highest time difference (worst or furthest from the actual time) receives only 1 point.
--In the event, I do not finish a race (therefore, pulled from the HM course because of injury or another reason), then the ranks will be done with slowest being 1st place and down the list to the fastest prediction being last.
--If someone predicts the exact time of the event, then they receive double points. If there are 27 people playing, and the final 10k time is 44:22, and someone guesses 44:22, then that person receives 54 points.
--All points are doubled for Dopey time predictions. If there are 27 people playing, then the first place person gets 54 points. Second place gets 52 points. Third place gets 50 points, etc.
--If someone guesses the Dopey time perfectly, then they get double double points (quadruple). So, if 27 people playing, then they get 108 points.
--The final rank of each person is the accumulation of points from each individual event (5k, 10k, HM, M, Goofy, and Dopey) summed together. The person with the most accumulated points wins the game.
--In the event two people share the highest cumulative point total, then a tie breaker will be used. The tie breaker is guessing the final cumulative Dopey time rank as calculated by @opusone. The absolute value from the final Dopey rank will be used to determine who is closest (no price is right rules). However, in the event that two people tie in top final rank, and tie in absolute value difference from final Dopey rank, then the person with the lower guess (closer to #1 ranked Dopey runner) is the winner. If the two champions are still tied (because they both guessed the exact same final cumulative Dopey rank), then the person who made their guesses first wins.
--In the event of a disagreement, I will make the final decision.
Winner receives one (1) $10 gift card to Amazon via email. Email will be requested via PM using the DISboards (or verbally if I know the person here).
I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the guessing process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated.
Now for the fun part, the data to help you make guesses. I fully intend on racing all of the races to the full extent. One of my goals is to PR in all 6 events. So, needless to say I'm going for it. I run by effort, so whatever feels like 10k pace is what I will run. I will likely not know mid-race what my pace is because I will try to remain blind to pace feedback (my general race strategy). I currently have no injuries that I believe will hold me back from giving a best effort.
Current PRs
5k - 21:49
10k - 44:31
HM - 1:38:49
M - 3:23:43
Goofy - 5:38:44
Dopey - 6:45:30
Current "Dopey" PRs
5k - 21:49
10k - 44:57
HM - 1:43:09
M - 3:55:35
Goofy - 5:38:44
Dopey - 6:45:30
I have completed the Dopey Challenge 3 other times. Using the last two years of Dopey times, I can compare the times I ran in January to my October/November marathon times from a few months prior, and/or my race equivalency times. Using this system, we get the following projections:
All other prediction models from this point forward are not being used as the original input was calculated. In the following cases, I am making adjustments to the original method of calculation. Although, the October marathon didn't go as well as I had fitness predicted prior. Here is an estimate using what I believed to be my fitness level in October:
Since I started training in this cycle with a HR monitor chest strap (Garmin 620) and wrist-based system (Garmin 235), I have been able to build a database of HR vs pace. I use the HR vs pace to make predictions on future race times based on historical event HR and current HR vs paces. This method has been very accurate for me in the past few races with much less data in the system. As of 11/29/16, this is what the HR vs pace graph predicted:
And as of 12/18/16, which includes many SUPER cold runs which may or may not be useful in making HR vs pace calculations:
Lastly, I ran some blind runs (no GPS feedback and purely by effort of what I intended the run to be) and got the following projections by using the pace I ran relative to the type of run and calculated using the Hansons race equivalency calculator:
Alright, let the fun begin! Let's hear your predictions for each of my times. Feel free to guess super fast times, or super slow times. You won't hurt my feelings one way or the other because any time is a possibility. And since I race blind and by effort, your guess will have little to no effect on the final race time outcome.
I will update this post with the current predicted times. Since Heidi (my SIL) was the winner of the October marathon prediction contest I gave her first dibs.
Well, I had so much fun with the prediction contest for the October marathon I decided to give it another go. Below are the rules and regulations:
General Rules
-All predictions must be made between 12/19/16 and 12/28/16 in this journal (unless verbal to me).
-Only one set of predictions per person.
-A person should predict 5k, 10k, Half Marathon, Marathon, Goofy and Dopey finishing times (not paces). In addition, a tie breaker of final cumulative time Dopey rank will be used as calculated by @opusone.
-There is no limitation on guesses and there closeness to others. Therefore, two people can make the same exact prediction for any of the times (ie. two people can predict a 5k time of 25:00).
-The official RunDisney time for William Blaser for the 5k, 10k, HM, and M will be used as the official finishing times for this contest. The Garmin/Strava times do not count. The Goofy time is the HM + M and the Dopey time is 5k, 10k, HM and M combined.
-A person's Goofy guess (or Dopey guess) does not have to be a sum of their individual race times. Therefore, a guess of 1:00 for HM and 2:00 M does not mean you have to guess 3:00 for Goofy. You are free to "hedge" your bets with a different time.
- @roxymama has graciously volunteered her time to update the standings after each race and give the final standings after all 6 events have been completed. I will inform her of the official race time (or she can look it up herself) and she will post on here the standings from that day's event as well as the current total standings (with all completed events totaled up to that day).
Points are accumulated in the following manner:
--The time difference between one's guess and the official time as recorded by RunDisney will be calculated.
--All time differences will be calculated as absolute differences. So, being 5 seconds too fast or 5 seconds too slow are both equal to being off by 5 seconds. There are no price is right style rules.
--Everyone's time difference for each individual category will be ranked against other participants. The person with the closest guess to the actual time (therefore, the smallest difference between guess and actual time) for an individual race is given the most points. The 2nd closest person is given the second most points. etc.
--Each individual event's time difference is calculated separately and ranked separately from other events. Therefore, the time difference/rank of the 5k guess has no impact on the time difference/rank of the Half Marathon.
--The highest number of possible points is based on the number of participants. If there are 27 people playing, then the person with the closest 5k guess gets 27 points. The 2nd person gets 26 points. etc. Same for each of the other events (10k, HM, M, and Goofy)
--If two people have the exact same time difference, then they share the total points. The next person in rank then receives less points (determined by the number tied at the same time difference). Therefore, if 10 people are playing and the top time difference of 7 seconds is shared by 3 people, then those 3 people all get 10 points for that event. The next person in rank (4th) gets 7 points.
--The person with the highest time difference (worst or furthest from the actual time) receives only 1 point.
--In the event, I do not finish a race (therefore, pulled from the HM course because of injury or another reason), then the ranks will be done with slowest being 1st place and down the list to the fastest prediction being last.
--If someone predicts the exact time of the event, then they receive double points. If there are 27 people playing, and the final 10k time is 44:22, and someone guesses 44:22, then that person receives 54 points.
--All points are doubled for Dopey time predictions. If there are 27 people playing, then the first place person gets 54 points. Second place gets 52 points. Third place gets 50 points, etc.
--If someone guesses the Dopey time perfectly, then they get double double points (quadruple). So, if 27 people playing, then they get 108 points.
--The final rank of each person is the accumulation of points from each individual event (5k, 10k, HM, M, Goofy, and Dopey) summed together. The person with the most accumulated points wins the game.
--In the event two people share the highest cumulative point total, then a tie breaker will be used. The tie breaker is guessing the final cumulative Dopey time rank as calculated by @opusone. The absolute value from the final Dopey rank will be used to determine who is closest (no price is right rules). However, in the event that two people tie in top final rank, and tie in absolute value difference from final Dopey rank, then the person with the lower guess (closer to #1 ranked Dopey runner) is the winner. If the two champions are still tied (because they both guessed the exact same final cumulative Dopey rank), then the person who made their guesses first wins.
--In the event of a disagreement, I will make the final decision.
Winner receives one (1) $10 gift card to Amazon via email. Email will be requested via PM using the DISboards (or verbally if I know the person here).
I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the guessing process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated.
Now for the fun part, the data to help you make guesses. I fully intend on racing all of the races to the full extent. One of my goals is to PR in all 6 events. So, needless to say I'm going for it. I run by effort, so whatever feels like 10k pace is what I will run. I will likely not know mid-race what my pace is because I will try to remain blind to pace feedback (my general race strategy). I currently have no injuries that I believe will hold me back from giving a best effort.
Current PRs
5k - 21:49
10k - 44:31
HM - 1:38:49
M - 3:23:43
Goofy - 5:38:44
Dopey - 6:45:30
Current "Dopey" PRs
5k - 21:49
10k - 44:57
HM - 1:43:09
M - 3:55:35
Goofy - 5:38:44
Dopey - 6:45:30
I have completed the Dopey Challenge 3 other times. Using the last two years of Dopey times, I can compare the times I ran in January to my October/November marathon times from a few months prior, and/or my race equivalency times. Using this system, we get the following projections:
All other prediction models from this point forward are not being used as the original input was calculated. In the following cases, I am making adjustments to the original method of calculation. Although, the October marathon didn't go as well as I had fitness predicted prior. Here is an estimate using what I believed to be my fitness level in October:
Since I started training in this cycle with a HR monitor chest strap (Garmin 620) and wrist-based system (Garmin 235), I have been able to build a database of HR vs pace. I use the HR vs pace to make predictions on future race times based on historical event HR and current HR vs paces. This method has been very accurate for me in the past few races with much less data in the system. As of 11/29/16, this is what the HR vs pace graph predicted:
And as of 12/18/16, which includes many SUPER cold runs which may or may not be useful in making HR vs pace calculations:
Lastly, I ran some blind runs (no GPS feedback and purely by effort of what I intended the run to be) and got the following projections by using the pace I ran relative to the type of run and calculated using the Hansons race equivalency calculator:
Alright, let the fun begin! Let's hear your predictions for each of my times. Feel free to guess super fast times, or super slow times. You won't hurt my feelings one way or the other because any time is a possibility. And since I race blind and by effort, your guess will have little to no effect on the final race time outcome.
I will update this post with the current predicted times. Since Heidi (my SIL) was the winner of the October marathon prediction contest I gave her first dibs.
Last edited:
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
Just to give you a friendly FL weather update, we hit 87 today!! It's almost Dopey time
Guess it's a good thing I start heat acclimation training tomorrow. Not sure it will help me as much as I hope with a temp difference currently of 95. But, I'm sure going to try.
I don't think this prediction contest is appropriately complex enough.Next year, I'm putting the rules together.
It sounds way more complex in words then it is. But I'm just trying to be thorough.
-Make guess.
-Rank guesses.
-Earn points.
-Most points win!
MissLiss279
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2015
5k - 19:05
10k - 42:36
Half - 1:36:12
Full - 3:23:19
Goofy - 5:03:07
Dopey - 6:10:37
Good luck and stay healthy!! I'm rooting for you!!
10k - 42:36
Half - 1:36:12
Full - 3:23:19
Goofy - 5:03:07
Dopey - 6:10:37
Good luck and stay healthy!! I'm rooting for you!!
FFigawi
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2009
I don't think this prediction contest is appropriately complex enough.
You know, we could make it more complex. We could expand the contest to have all of us running Dopey make our own predictions for how we'll do in each race, have poor @roxymama expand her spreadsheet accordingly, and have a prize or bragging rights for whoever is closest to their own times.
DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
@rteetz @MissLiss279 @FFigawi @willieT
Thanks for the predictions everyone. Can I also get a tie breaker prediction of final cumulative Dopey rank?
Why limit it to Dopey? Next year we could do everyone do any race and use some sort of percentage grading system to account for those doing single races of shorter durations, longer durations, challenges, etc. Looks like I've got a project for over the non-Disney season.
Here's a section of the spreadsheet for this year with calculations currently shown:
This way all @roxymama has to do is type my time in the black box and presto it does all the work.
In all honesty, talk to me on marathon race morning. I am generally a good judge of how I will run on day of. Last year I was within *10 minutes of my Dopey marathon time predicting the morning of. I'm not always that accurate, but I'm generally pretty good. So if I'm going to be around a 3:34 we can definitely run together.
*Correction - I was off by 10 minutes pre-run, not 1 minute. I was hoping to PR (3:38 at the time), but because of the heat I adjusted my mental time to 3:45. I ended up running a 3:55.
Thanks for the predictions everyone. Can I also get a tie breaker prediction of final cumulative Dopey rank?
Why limit it to Dopey? Next year we could do everyone do any race and use some sort of percentage grading system to account for those doing single races of shorter durations, longer durations, challenges, etc. Looks like I've got a project for over the non-Disney season.
Here's a section of the spreadsheet for this year with calculations currently shown:
This way all @roxymama has to do is type my time in the black box and presto it does all the work.
* purely selfish prediction to match my pace and use you as my pacer
In all honesty, talk to me on marathon race morning. I am generally a good judge of how I will run on day of. Last year I was within *10 minutes of my Dopey marathon time predicting the morning of. I'm not always that accurate, but I'm generally pretty good. So if I'm going to be around a 3:34 we can definitely run together.
*Correction - I was off by 10 minutes pre-run, not 1 minute. I was hoping to PR (3:38 at the time), but because of the heat I adjusted my mental time to 3:45. I ended up running a 3:55.
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MissLiss279
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2015
To add to my predictions:
Dopey Rank - 37
Dopey Rank - 37
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