Who's booking for 2021?

[WeLoveABD]

We have an October trip with Tauck planned (New Zealand), and Quantas cancelled the flights today. For October! Crimeny.

 

[Rapunzellover]

We have an October trip with Tauck planned (New Zealand), and Quantas cancelled the flights today. For October! Crimeny.

Did they say it was due to the virus? Maybe it's something else?

 

[disdel]

I totally agree with you about the booking in advance. It didn't use to be like this, and I really don't enjoy it now that it is. It's one of the things I hate about DCL, this pressure to book early and pressure over booking excursions early, etc. It really is not enjoyable at all.

Sayhello

I'll be cancelling our September ABD / AMA Danube cruise. So far, all ABD will let me do is move my money as far as next March. I'd rather push it to next August, so I may have to cancel and lose it all before my PIF in two weeks.
I'm now heading in your direction on the advance commitments. We're now retired, so think we'll shift to only last-minute deals, which in a lot of cases will eliminate ABD, DCL, and even the parks. I don't think I'll ever be comfortable with the nonsense of months early fast passes and dining requests. I've been a proponent of planning WDW visits since the late 1980s, and was a user and promoter of the original Unofficial Guides. But to commit to what attraction I'll be on, and what meal I'll be having at what time months from now, naaah. My dollars will be migrating elsewhere.
I'm pretty sure Walt would understand.

 

[neurosx1983]

I'll be cancelling our September ABD / AMA Danube cruise. So far, all ABD will let me do is move my money as far as next March. I'd rather push it to next August, so I may have to cancel and lose it all before my PIF in two weeks.
I'm now heading in your direction on the advance commitments. We're now retired, so think we'll shift to only last-minute deals, which in a lot of cases will eliminate ABD, DCL, and even the parks. I don't think I'll ever be comfortable with the nonsense of months early fast passes and dining requests. I've been a proponent of planning WDW visits since the late 1980s, and was a user and promoter of the original Unofficial Guides. But to commit to what attraction I'll be on, and what meal I'll be having at what time months from now, naaah. My dollars will be migrating elsewhere.
I'm pretty sure Walt would understand.

Seems to me that ABD has this culture (like everything at Disney) of making people plan stuff 18 months in advance...I can understand at WDW if you want to get certain dining (which is still insane), but I don't see a good reason to commit so early for ABD unless you want a few hundred dollars off for an early booking discount (in exchange for a few hundred you're giving them thousands in a deposit). I guess the other reason to book early is to get on the new trips which fill up fast, but I suspect that may not be happening for the next year or so.

 

[sayhello]

I'll be cancelling our September ABD / AMA Danube cruise. So far, all ABD will let me do is move my money as far as next March. I'd rather push it to next August, so I may have to cancel and lose it all before my PIF in two weeks.
I'm now heading in your direction on the advance commitments. We're now retired, so think we'll shift to only last-minute deals, which in a lot of cases will eliminate ABD, DCL, and even the parks. I don't think I'll ever be comfortable with the nonsense of months early fast passes and dining requests. I've been a proponent of planning WDW visits since the late 1980s, and was a user and promoter of the original Unofficial Guides. But to commit to what attraction I'll be on, and what meal I'll be having at what time months from now, naaah. My dollars will be migrating elsewhere.
I'm pretty sure Walt would understand.

March??? So they'll only allow you to move to one of the current year's offerings? That's ridiculous! I thought you could park your deposit for 2 years. I would really try talking to someone different or higher up. March 2021 is ridiculous.

And I get what you're saying about the 18 months thing. I'm pretty much over that, too. I was willing to do it for Japan, but doing it for a River Cruise? I don't think it's worth it for the comparatively minor discount. ABD's inflexibility is showing that to be true.

And I hadn't been to WDW in 8 years due to the whole "book your Fastpasses months in advance" thing. I actually loved going there because I *didn't* have to plan. I'd get a room, and a 10-day, non-expiring Park Hopper pass, and just do whatever I felt like. Spend a day just visiting the Resorts? Go for it! Change parks 3 times? Yep! The first time I went and COULD NOT find a place to have dinner at DHS, and had to leave the park to eat, and then switched from another park to Epcot at lunch time only to find that ALL Fastpasses for Soarin' were gone for the day, the shiny started to wear off. *Just* before this all went crazy, I had my first trip to WDW in 8 years, because I wanted to ride FOP and RotR. Just 2 days in the parks, with all the plans done. And, overall, I hated it. There were some good moments, but the amount of pre-planning and stress required to get the trip to look like anything worth doing made it pretty much not worth doing. I don't see me going back to WDW for another 8 years. And yes. Walt would totally understand. I think he'd be appalled at the current way the parks work.

Seems to me that ABD has this culture (like everything at Disney) of making people plan stuff 18 months in advance...I can understand at WDW if you want to get certain dining (which is still insane), but I don't see a good reason to commit so early for ABD unless you want a few hundred dollars off for an early booking discount (in exchange for a few hundred you're giving them thousands in a deposit). I guess the other reason to book early is to get on the new trips which fill up fast, but I suspect that may not be happening for the next year or so.

I totally agree with this. So much of this is NOT how ABD was years ago when I fell in love with it. And I'd be extremely surprised if any trips sell out in advance this year.

Sayhello

 

[Cousin Orville]

ABD and Disney shouldn't be blamed for a culture of booking trips well in advance. That's been driven by customer demand for years. Every Spring on this forum people ask when ABD will release the new ABDs so they can book them. Same with DCL. And the trips historically have booked up fast. New DCL and ABD itineraries as we all know have been ridiculously popular. Simply put, they book up early and prices begin to rise early because they're popular. That culture wouldn't exist without demand.

Now whether that demand goes down is another question. I'd certainly expect ABD demand to be soft for the next year due to uncertainties in international travel and whether there would be additional waves of COVID. If I were in charge of ABD, I'd release a new domestic trip to try to drive business rather than a hot new international trip (Egypt/Japan). I'd save that for the following year. And I'd relax the nonrefundable down payments and paid in full dates. The strictness of both the down payments and the PIF 120 days in advance were possibly due to contracts they had with hotels and tour operators. Needless to say, all these hotels and tour operators should be willing to renegotiate. If ABD can relax both the the downpayment and the PIF 4 months in advance, I think they could still see a decent 2021 despite the uncertainties of the world. If they don't see a need to change, I'd expect their numbers to be soft. Definitely no travel expert here. Just seems common sense.

 

[WeLoveABD]

Did they say it was due to the virus? Maybe it's something else?

Well, we called and after about a 1.5 hour wait we got through to a guy we could barely hear/understand, and after repeatedly asking why it was cancelled and confirming it was the airline cancelling and not us, he hung up. Then a refund notice showed up in our email in box. I suspect his main objective was to get us to agree to a credit rather than a refund-- wouldn't do us any good if Tauck goes forward with the trip in October. (BTW, we like ABD and Tauck-- we had a Tauck trip cancelled for this month and it has been difficult getting a refund/future trip credit--- but I don't blame them or ABD for current difficulties, given the unprecedented worldwide disaster. Yes, tough for everyone re travel plans, but we can weather those sorts of problems with good humor and patience, and instead focus on the health and safety of family, friends and those on the front lines of this). Be safe and well all!

 

[kaseyC]

I'm not sure about 2021 yet. I have our final payment coming up for our early September ABD Rhine river cruise. I would love to move that deposit to a 2021 trip but the deposit was already moved from an Egypt itinerary so I can't. I expect things will still be chaotic in Europe at that time and will not be a good time if the trip goes forward. So now I'm trying to decide before my May PIF date if I will cancel and just lose the deposit or make payment and hope ABD cancels.

I realize all travel companies and cruise lines are dealing with this the best they can but I swear the lux lines and companies seem to have the crappiest communication. I was booked on an upcoming Transatlantic crossing with Seabourn. Their communication with clients has been horrid. We knew the cruise wasn't going to set sail because most of the ports were closed from Miami to Barcelona. We were finally contacted this week that the cruise was cancelled. We were offered a full refund or a 125% future cruise credit. I chose the refund (which they claim will take up to 12 weeks to process) because the FCC had way too many limitations. I told my husband last night I would be surprised if I see a refund because the parent company of Seabourn - Carnival Corp isn't in great shape at the moment. Crazy times.

 

[neurosx1983]

ABD and Disney shouldn't be blamed for a culture of booking trips well in advance. That's been driven by customer demand for years. Every Spring on this forum people ask when ABD will release the new ABDs so they can book them. Same with DCL. And the trips historically have booked up fast. New DCL and ABD itineraries as we all know have been ridiculously popular. Simply put, they book up early and prices begin to rise early because they're popular. That culture wouldn't exist without demand.

Now whether that demand goes down is another question. I'd certainly expect ABD demand to be soft for the next year due to uncertainties in international travel and whether there would be additional waves of COVID. If I were in charge of ABD, I'd release a new domestic trip to try to drive business rather than a hot new international trip (Egypt/Japan). I'd save that for the following year. And I'd relax the nonrefundable down payments and paid in full dates. The strictness of both the down payments and the PIF 120 days in advance were possibly due to contracts they had with hotels and tour operators. Needless to say, all these hotels and tour operators should be willing to renegotiate. If ABD can relax both the the downpayment and the PIF 4 months in advance, I think they could still see a decent 2021 despite the uncertainties of the world. If they don't see a need to change, I'd expect their numbers to be soft. Definitely no travel expert here. Just seems common sense.

You're absolutely right. ABD has profited off the disney 'culture' of people who love to plan months in advance. And its a function of the market demand as well. No fault to ABD for that, but I do think 120 days PIF is a bit intense and I agree with you that this should be relaxed in the future to maybe 60 days. Also I've always found their 14 day non refundable deposit policy a bit much too...this, coupled with the enticement of early booking discounts, has in part fed into the 'culture' of people booking trips 12-18 months out, and giving ABD thousands of dollars of trip deposits that aren't going to be used for over a year.

As Pete rightly said on last week's show, though, ABD is going to have to answer to the same market supply/demand chain that fed these practices in the past. I would say a lot of people are NOT going to want to fork over deposits so many months in advance or PIF 120 days out. This will get them to change their policies quickly.

 

[*WDW*Groupie*]

I am holding off booking any travel for 2021 with a tour company. I plan on booking the Waldorf Astoria Maldives for next April (on points); we were supposed to be there now, but I cancelled the trip 3 weeks ago (and was able to get everything refunded that I had paid for). I would like to add on a trip to either India or Sri Lanka before heading to the atoll, but I am not ready to commit to anything outside of a stay on points currently (that can be easily refunded).

If a vaccine is developed and this virus is eradicated, I will consider a cycling trip to NZ with Backroads in January or February. Other than that and the aforementioned WA trip I don't have any travel plans for 2021. Too many uncertainties with dd being a freshman in university next year.

 

[neurosx1983]

I am holding off booking any travel for 2021 with a tour company. I plan on booking the Waldorf Astoria Maldives for next April (on points); we were supposed to be there now, but I cancelled the trip 3 weeks ago (and was able to get everything refunded that I had paid for). I would like to add on a trip to either India or Sri Lanka before heading to the atoll, but I am not ready to commit to anything outside of a stay on points currently (that can be easily refunded).

If a vaccine is developed and this virus is eradicated, I will consider a cycling trip to NZ with Backroads in January or February. Other than that and the aforementioned WA trip I don't have any travel plans for 2021. Too many uncertainties with dd being a freshman in university next year.

Maldives looks awesome! On my bucket list

 

[Kez250]

I'm not sure about 2021 yet. I have our final payment coming up for our early September ABD Rhine river cruise. I would love to move that deposit to a 2021 trip but the deposit was already moved from an Egypt itinerary so I can't. I expect things will still be chaotic in Europe at that time and will not be a good time if the trip goes forward. So now I'm trying to decide before my May PIF date if I will cancel and just lose the deposit or make payment and hope ABD cancels.

kaseyC, Our deposit for Scotland in July was already moved from a SA trip that we couldn't do. I spoke with them and they agreed because of COVID and the uncertainty to let me put it back as a place holder, I have until Dec 31 2020 to move it to a different adventure. Call them and ask.

 

[laceltris3]

ABD and Disney shouldn't be blamed for a culture of booking trips well in advance. That's been driven by customer demand for years. Every Spring on this forum people ask when ABD will release the new ABDs so they can book them. Same with DCL. And the trips historically have booked up fast. New DCL and ABD itineraries as we all know have been ridiculously popular. Simply put, they book up early and prices begin to rise early because they're popular. That culture wouldn't exist without demand.

Now whether that demand goes down is another question. I'd certainly expect ABD demand to be soft for the next year due to uncertainties in international travel and whether there would be additional waves of COVID. If I were in charge of ABD, I'd release a new domestic trip to try to drive business rather than a hot new international trip (Egypt/Japan). I'd save that for the following year. And I'd relax the nonrefundable down payments and paid in full dates. The strictness of both the down payments and the PIF 120 days in advance were possibly due to contracts they had with hotels and tour operators. Needless to say, all these hotels and tour operators should be willing to renegotiate. If ABD can relax both the the downpayment and the PIF 4 months in advance, I think they could still see a decent 2021 despite the uncertainties of the world. If they don't see a need to change, I'd expect their numbers to be soft. Definitely no travel expert here. Just seems common sense.

I would say that for DCL and ABD, the rush to book on opening day is artificial primarily driven by the dynamic pricing they employ, and not by organic demand to book 18 months out. There are itineraries that I would not even consider with ABD if I didn't get an early booking discount, given their price disparity vs. peer companies. I am not willing to pay up to $1K more per person for the same trip. I like that with Tauck I can pick my river cruise cabin before the trip is even priced, and when it is I can have 14 days to refund my deposit if I don't like it. Or I can book 6+ months later and pay the same price.

 

[Rapunzellover]

ABD and Disney shouldn't be blamed for a culture of booking trips well in advance.

Um, yes, they should be blamed. People book early because the prices go up as filled, which causes people to book early. And because they offer early booking discounts. You would have interest in new itineraries, but you certainly would not have so many advanced bookings without their pricing system. As lacetris3 noted, it's artificially driven. So, yes, the blame is on the mouse house. They do this pricing to promote early bookings, because the earlier you book, the more likely you are to change plans and thus lose money under their T & Cs. It's a profit motivated system.

Take Tauck as an extremely good example- their pricing is consistent and though lots book early, there's generally an easy time finding what you want last minute. The rush is not the same.

 

[Rapunzellover]

BTW, we like ABD and Tauck-- we had a Tauck trip cancelled for this month and it has been difficult getting a refund/future trip credit---

I've very surprised about this from Tauck. What are they telling you? I canceled a Tauck trip 24 hrs in advance a couple years ago (back issues), and had zero issues, losing no money- part credit, part refund, with only a small airline change fee. I'm curious what they're being sticklers over?

 

[Cousin Orville]

Um, yes, they should be blamed. People book early because the prices go up as filled, which causes people to book early. And because they offer early booking discounts. ....It's a profit motivated system.

I agree it’s their pricing structure and early discounts combined with demand that feed the need to book early. I just don’t see it’s something that deserves blame. They’re not doing anything nefarious. It’s the same method most hotels, airlines and cruises follow. Sell the early seats at a lower price and gradually increase as availability decreases. Allows a company to predict demand and adapt accordingly. I suppose they could have just picked an avg price for their Japan trip. Maybe $1000 above their intro price and $1000 below their upper price. Charge everyone that same price to maintain the same revenue. Wouldn’t have the immediate rush of requests, but they might not know it’s necessary to increase the number of trips before it was too late. Plus I appreciate the ability get an early booking discount.

In all likelihood, ABD will have softer numbers for both 2020 and 2021 and they should adjust their T & C to reflect that. But after that, I don’t see a long term systemic problem for them. I will probably not travel with them as often as I have in the past, but that’s more because I’ve done close to 20 trips with them and they’ve frankly run out of trips for me. As my kids grow up, there’s other destinations I’d like to take them that ABD doesn’t go to.

 

[kaseyC]

kaseyC, Our deposit for Scotland in July was already moved from a SA trip that we couldn't do. I spoke with them and they agreed because of COVID and the uncertainty to let me put it back as a place holder, I have until Dec 31 2020 to move it to a different adventure. Call them and ask.

That's great to hear. I will look into that tomorrow. Thank you.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

I agree with the dynamic pricing model being the issue for the frenzy. I think it is mostly a Disney (ABD/DCL) thing--at least I can't think of any other high end travel companies that I've been on that do dynamic pricing (Nat geo, REI, alumni travel, etc). I hate it and know that it has lost them customers. My sister is one who won't go with them again due to the pricing and having to book on day one. The high end cruises that I've done also don't do dynamic pricing (Hebridean Princess and Zegrahm). I think that it can create a false idea of demand. I've seen it happen on cruises before where they fill up (the prices go sky high) and then they end up having to do the restricted rates when people drop. They must think it is profitable for them, but I suspect if you polled most customers they hate it.

 

[Rapunzellover]

I agree it’s their pricing structure and early discounts combined with demand that feed the need to book early. I just don’t see it’s something that deserves blame. They’re not doing anything nefarious. It’s the same method most hotels, airlines and cruises follow. Sell the early seats at a lower price and gradually increase as availability decreases. Allows a company to predict demand and adapt accordingly. I suppose they could have just picked an avg price for their Japan trip. Maybe $1000 above their intro price and $1000 below their upper price. Charge everyone that same price to maintain the same revenue. Wouldn’t have the immediate rush of requests, but they might not know it’s necessary to increase the number of trips before it was too late. Plus I appreciate the ability get an early booking discount.

In all likelihood, ABD will have softer numbers for both 2020 and 2021 and they should adjust their T & C to reflect that. But after that, I don’t see a long term systemic problem for them. I will probably not travel with them as often as I have in the past, but that’s more because I’ve done close to 20 trips with them and they’ve frankly run out of trips for me. As my kids grow up, there’s other destinations I’d like to take them that ABD doesn’t go to.

Never said it was nefarious. Just said they are to blame. And given that they could easily make changes, I think blame is fair to assign to them and any other company like this. Corporate greed gets too easily excused nowadays. And given Mickey will probably end up getting stimulus money from my tax dollars, the greed seems especially distasteful.

The average pricing thing you mentioned doesn't need to happen, btw, in order to have static pricing. Tauck (as an example, again) simply assigns each date a price based on date. The static price is different for each travel date, being cheaper for some dates, more expensive for others, based on hotel rates, etc.

 

[Cousin Orville]

I understand your point. Static pricing decreases the pressure on purchasing early. This is one of the reasons they’ll never do it. Same with just about all major travel companies with significant volume. If they offered a static price it would very well be at a higher price than you can buy on opening day. No way Disney is going to lower their overall revenue on a given trip. If you want to purchase at a lower price and don’t mind booking a year ahead, dynamic pricing is the way to go. If you want to book later, don’t want to spend more than another guest, and don’t mind spending a little more than the current opening day price then static pricing would be best. I understand that people may have clear preferences. I just disagree that it necessitates blame as if they’re doing something wrong or that it amounts to greed. It’s just a business model and one that’s more common than not in travel. Everyone should vote with their dollars.

I do find think it’s interesting that this complaint is coming up now. Not a common complaint from what I can remember with ABD even a few months ago. But it’s a different world for sure and people may not be willing to make plans so far in advance given the unknowns. I suspect this is temporary while there are still unknowns. I’d predict 2 yrs from now, once a vaccine is here, people will largely be back on this forum planning and booking 12-18 months in advance as they have for years.

BTW, under the recent CARES act (and likely any Phase IV stimulus) companies of Disney’s size aren’t given grants, they’re given loans with interest. Not sure that makes it any less tasteful, but they will have to pay it back. And if such a stimulus saves people’s jobs, it’s a good thing.