When will Sea world deal get done.

[seascapemvy]

There are now two named companies interested in Sea world. Merlin only wants Bush Gardens while Parques Reunidos may want the entire company. Who else would be interested?

I have to start by first stating I love theme parks and own stock in Six Flags, Disney and SeaWorld and partner shares in Cedar Fair. I hate comcast so I can't own any part of Universal. I also have annual passes to both Six Flags and WDW, so world have a gain if either Disney or Six Flags purchased SeaWorld.

The most interesting thing to think about is how this will effect the global theme park rankings. If Universal did buy Sea world they would most likely pass Merlin and move into second place. However if Merlin got the Bush Garden parks and right to that name they would grow much larger and make it almost impossible for Universal to catch them. If any of the other top companies purchased all of Sea world they would be able to pass Universal shortly into number 3 and thus make Universal number 4 and possibly lower given the growth of the Chineese companies.

So who will buy them and When? Then what will happen next? Mergers mean less competition and customers for the ride manufacturers and less competition for the theme park companies. But as long as Six Flags and Cedar Fair remain with Disney and Universal the American Market will be competitive even without SeaWorld.

Finances make it almost impossible for either Six Flags or Cedar Fair to pay cash, an all stock deal could be possible and benfitial for all involved and I would vote in favor of it. I would however vote against any Comcast deal. In my heart I would like Six Flags to be the winner. It also make them number 3 with the future parks give them the ability to become number 2.

 

[ADollarADay]

Disney should make a play. Thing is heavily discounted, SEAS EV is 2.75B and the offer from Parque was 1.6B. SEAS EV was 5.4B in 2013. This is a good opportunity to get a lot of properties on the cheap. SEAS main problems are 1) The name stench because of blackfish and 2) It's poorly managed. Both fixed.

Disney buying them would give them a 5th gate in Orlando right off the bat. Yes, it's not in WDW, but it's within 20 minutes. They could either create a small DVC villa or something next to it and/or provide shuttles from other resorts. It has a con of not being right next to the other parks, but it has a pro of being closer to where Universal is and already has a lot of rides ready to go, just needing to be rethemed. It would also provide the first "thrill" park for Disney, and the proximity to Universal would also allow them to possibly steal some of their customers. Speaking of retheming, I would get rid of all cetaceans and theme it as Disney at Sea (like the Tokyo one). Discovery Cove could continue being a sanctuary, with people being able to swim with rays and interact with animals (like how Discovery Island at WDW was). The Nemo at Sea attraction from Epcot could be moved to Disney at Sea, opening up that space for more techy stuff at Epcot.

Busch Gardens and the water park in Tampa are too far from everything else. I would sell that off (Merlin is very interested in this, and could fetch a decent price especially because no SeaWorld name). Likewise I would consider selling off SeaWorld San Diego and the water park. Too far from Disneyland (though I see a case of keeping it because they don't have all that space in California and no water park, so they could have a 3rd gate - Disney California at Sea, and a water park there).

Re-purpose SeaWorld San Antonio as Disneyland Texas and there's already a water park there as well. A good presence in the midwest for people who aren't able to fly out to FL or CA. Plus they can actually build Marvel stuff here. Busch Gardens Williamsburg can be re-purposed to be Disney's America, while keeping the best rides. Both of these places would need a resort or two built. Finally an immediate international presence in Abu Dhabi, which I think could be a good area to gamble to see if the risk pays off, especially since the work is already being done.

So to reiterate, Disney would get

+ 5th gate in Orlando, 3rd water park in Orlando
+ Animal Sanctuary in Orlando
+ DisneyLand Texas + Water Park in Texas
+ Disney's America + Water Park in Virginia
+ Disneyland + Water Park in Abu Dhabi

Sell off
- Busch Gardens Tampa
- Sesame Place Philadelphia
- Water Park Tampa

To decide
* Sea World San Diego
* Aquatica San Diego

All that for ~1.6B (- the sale of the properties to divest)? Let's play it safe and say all that for $2B and then play safe again and say another 2B to re-purpose the parks, rehabilitate the animals, etc, then we are talking about 4B total. Well worth the money and still less than what it cost to build Disney Shanghai. Also, Disney allowing Comcast to buy them would seriously concern the mouse because now Universal would have 3 gates in Orlando. That's significant.

That said, it's a long shot for them to do that. Six Flags or Merlin or Parque getting it wouldn't be bad either. Universal buying them would be interesting.

 

[DOOM1001]

I can't imagine Disney being interested in Sea World.Universal has a much higher probability,having repurchased that land near the Orlando eye by Lockheed which will become a new theme park at some point and is not all that far from Sea World and all the new hotels being built,Cabana,Sapphire,the Aventura hotel going up,the new hotel going where Wet n Wild was located,when you start building this many hotels it has to be for a reason.The two current theme parks and even Volcano Bay are not big enough for all the hotels going in,the Wet n Wild hotel is supposed to be a huge affordable All Star style hotel and there's even talk of a monorail connecting the current parks to this hotel and maybe heading south to the new theme park by the Orlando eye,adding Sea World at the rate Universal is expanding sounds a lot more feasable than Disney getting involved.Sea World is already a great park and having a Universal add it to their lineup would just make it better.What would happen to the TX and CA parks I have no clue,it would also just be weird not seeing the Busch and Sea World parks connected if they were split having had a Platinum pass for all these parks for almost 20 years,if Merlin were to buy Busch in Tampa at least you know they would still offer a shuttle from the Orlando eye which now leaves from Sea World as Merlin also has a shuttle to Legoland leaving daily from the eye.Busch in Williamsburg is also a great park I probably need to make a trip to with my platinum pass ASAP before a change is made.

 

[Belle & Ariel]

We've had the Super Grovers several times over the years and hope things do not change significantly. I prefer them to Disney APs.
Sea World seems to have great crowds so I'm not sure why they are selling.

 

[DOOM1001]

We've had the Super Grovers several times over the years and hope things do not change significantly. I prefer them to Disney APs.
Sea World seems to have great crowds so I'm not sure why they are selling.

Being a regular visitor to Sea World I would say crowds are only great when they have events,Halloween,Christmas,their food and wine festival with the concerts,visitors still come on other days but crowds definitely need to improve.

 

[sunshine1]

SeaWorld need to change their business model and fast: it is estimated that 200 million people worldwide have seen the documentary Blackfish. People have had a look behind the captivity curtain and do not like what they see: Once you you 'know' you cannot unknow.

Maybe if they concentrated on rides and maybe virtual whales and dolphins then they could move forward.

If the shares and attendance continue to drop then animal activists are worried that SeaWorld could ship their captive orca to the far East. No one wants that.

Would be great if they could build sea sanctuaries for the orca and dolphins and charge people to come and see them.

I think they only have 5.2% theme park market share in Orlando now.

 

[sunshine1]

Being a regular visitor to Sea World I would say crowds are only great when they have events,Halloween,Christmas,their food and wine festival with the concerts,visitors still come on other days but crowds definitely need to improve.

I was outside SeaWorld last week - hardly any cars were going into the parking lot.

 

[ADollarADay]

I can't imagine Disney being interested in Sea World.Universal has a much higher probability,having repurchased that land near the Orlando eye by Lockheed which will become a new theme park at some point and is not all that far from Sea World and all the new hotels being built,Cabana,Sapphire,the Aventura hotel going up,the new hotel going where Wet n Wild was located,when you start building this many hotels it has to be for a reason.The two current theme parks and even Volcano Bay are not big enough for all the hotels going in,the Wet n Wild hotel is supposed to be a huge affordable All Star style hotel and there's even talk of a monorail connecting the current parks to this hotel and maybe heading south to the new theme park by the Orlando eye,adding Sea World at the rate Universal is expanding sounds a lot more feasable than Disney getting involved.Sea World is already a great park and having a Universal add it to their lineup would just make it better.What would happen to the TX and CA parks I have no clue,it would also just be weird not seeing the Busch and Sea World parks connected if they were split having had a Platinum pass for all these parks for almost 20 years,if Merlin were to buy Busch in Tampa at least you know they would still offer a shuttle from the Orlando eye which now leaves from Sea World as Merlin also has a shuttle to Legoland leaving daily from the eye.Busch in Williamsburg is also a great park I probably need to make a trip to with my platinum pass ASAP before a change is made.

SeaWorld is about 20-30 minutes from WDW and about 20 mins away from Universal. It's actually pretty much halfway in between both parks. Your point about Universal expanding rapidly and probably showing an interest is an even bigger incentive for Disney to buy them. 2016 attendance numbers showed a drop in every single Disney park and a gain every single Universal Park. If Disney is not worried and looking for solutions, they are foolish.

 

[DOOM1001]

SeaWorld is about 20-30 minutes from WDW and about 20 mins away from Universal. It's actually pretty much halfway in between both parks. Your point about Universal expanding rapidly and probably showing an interest is an even bigger incentive for Disney to buy them. 2016 attendance numbers showed a drop in every single Disney park and a gain every single Universal Park. If Disney is not worried and looking for solutions, they are foolish.

I agree with your point that Disney needs to step up to counter Universals aggressive expansion,but I just don't see them doing that by buying Sea World but then again what do I know?I just see Universal expanding like there's no tomorrow and building a number of hotels that leaves you thinking they're going to have to put up at least two more theme parks to keep these hotels full.Given that its a certainty they will build another one on that land by the eye and how Sea World is very close to this location just gives me a feeling if Sea World were to be bought by Universal or Disney that it would likely be Universal.Disney is pretty much self contained and adding a park on I Drive would just be weird.I've always said that we would likely see Universal with 4 theme parks before Disney builds a 5th,but I see your point,Disney is resting on its laurels and are happy to just add lands to current parks,if Universal continues expanding it will for sure hurt Disney.The thing is that the Disney parks were in total ignore status for years so Pandora ,Star Wars,Toy Story land,new Fantasy land additions were badly needed,people looked at AK like a half day park,DHS was basically the same park from the 90s with few changes and even the popular festival park Epcot is next in line to help inject some new life to a lot of tired attractions.With all the money they're spending and given that Disney does not spend money freely it would seem unlikely they even consider Sea World.If they however look at it like its a good bang for their buck and adds a 5th gate and another water park plus that it prevents Universal from adding to their lineup then they could be interested but I just don't see it.I think Merlin or Parques Reunidos are the more likely buyers,I would put either of those at 85% likelihood,but like I said,what do I know?

 

[ADollarADay]

I agree with your point that Disney needs to step up to counter Universals aggressive expansion,but I just don't see them doing that by buying Sea World but then again what do I know?I just see Universal expanding like there's no tomorrow and building a number of hotels that leaves you thinking they're going to have to put up at least two more theme parks to keep these hotels full.Given that its a certainty they will build another one on that land by the eye and how Sea World is very close to this location just gives me a feeling if Sea World were to be bought by Universal or Disney that it would likely be Universal.Disney is pretty much self contained and adding a park on I Drive would just be weird.I've always said that we would likely see Universal with 4 theme parks before Disney builds a 5th,but I see your point,Disney is resting on its laurels and are happy to just add lands to current parks,if Universal continues expanding it will for sure hurt Disney.The thing is that the Disney parks were in total ignore status for years so Pandora ,Star Wars,Toy Story land,new Fantasy land additions were badly needed,people looked at AK like a half day park,DHS was basically the same park from the 90s with few changes and even the popular festival park Epcot is next in line to help inject some new life to a lot of tired attractions.With all the money they're spending and given that Disney does not spend money freely it would seem unlikely they even consider Sea World.If they however look at it like its a good bang for their buck and adds a 5th gate and another water park plus that it prevents Universal from adding to their lineup then they could be interested but I just don't see it.I think Merlin or Parques Reunidos are the more likely buyers,I would put either of those at 85% likelihood,but like I said,what do I know?

I don't disagree that Disney and Universal are unlikely buyers, but that they should look at it. The price is pretty cheap considering what you get with it.

SeaWorld is not on I-drive btw, it's about 15 mins from it, actually.

 

[DOOM1001]

I-Drive is a pretty long road,Oak Ridge on the north to 536 on the south,Sea World is on I- Drive and Central Fl pkwy so it is on I- Drive.I'm at Sea World like three times a week so I know.

 

[ADollarADay]

I-Drive is a pretty long road,Oak Ridge on the north to 536 on the south,Sea World is on I- Drive and Central Fl pkwy so it is on I- Drive.I'm at Sea World like three times a week so I know.

Bah you're right. I usually think of I Drive around the eye area or so, not the tail end of it. Regardless though, the point still stands, SeaWorld is right in the middle of it, about 15 minutes from Disney Springs/Epcot and 15 minutes from Universal.