When will I break even? Rent til then or buy? A word problem.

[CaliAdventurer]

I keep writing this out and getting lost. I am borrowed out after a family reunion, a honeymoon gift, and a borrowed HI spring break next year and I want to get back on track where I'm using my current points per trip. I take regularly timed trips. I'm trying to figure out which ones I need to rent to catch up or decide if another small contract is needed.

Here are my contracts that I need help with and current points:
VGF JUNE UY 500 pts
2019- 0
2020- 18 pts
2021- 500
2022-500

AUL FEB UY 600 pts
2019- 0
2020- 0
2021- 48
2022- 600

VGC JUN UY 240 pts
2019-0
2020-240
2021-240

Here are the trips I intend to take beyond the ones that I have already borrowed to cover:


October 2020 VGF 312-416*
April 2021 WDW 7 mo or AUL 500*
Aug 2020 VGC 220- this should catch me up here as long as I control myself
and these repeat 2021


* Do I rent from a broker at $17pp or do I buy a smallish contract? Was thinking 200pts at BWV or something to do every other October? But if I catch up once and for all and I only book 1 beds (no guests, no gifts) I should have about 180 flex points with what I have. I will never use VGC outside of VGC for what it cost me. If I had a few more points I could get 2 beds on the reg or be able to invite others or gift which has been a blessing to me to be able to do.
Also I have 3 children and each can take a contract to use one day leaving one with half as much as the others... but prices these days (resale)! Then again to rent 800 pts is the bulk of a contract. ACK!!

THANKS SO MUCH FOR THE BRAINPOWER.

 

[eMoneyBug]

I would keep borrowing from future years! And if you're still short, then yes buy some transfer DVC Points from us owners looking to rent out. Like myself, I was looking to potentially rent out some points, got some paperwork that says I can book for someone or transfer to DVC and they will pay me $14.

You never know what future years will hold in terms of vacationing, maybe you might go non Disney in 2020 or 2021 and finally be caught up in use years. I sent a screenshot of your contracts to my Wife "Life goals" for us. Great Resorts!

 

[Sandisw]

If you are looking at renting points until you are caught up, then IMO, I might look at buying another resale contract. Let's just say you do and in a few years down the road, you find that you no longer need all those extra points, you can either rent/transfer them out, or sell the contract. As long as what you sold for and any potential loss you might have selling only a few years down the road is LESS than what it would cost you to rent points until you are back at the break even point, have you really lost anything?

Or, as already mentioned, just keep staying in borrowed mode. But I hate being in borrowed mode too much, so if I was in your situation, I would buy before I would rent that many points in order to get back to current UY status for most trips.

 

[zavandor]

It seems to me you're out of points because of a few one-off events.
If you have a lot of children/nephews and see the need to gift an honeymoon often in your future, then a new contract may be useful.
But if the family reunion and the honeymoon were one-offs, then I'd transfer in a few points one year and then catch up with current year points.

Also, you have 1300+ points, what difference can do a 200 points contract bought right now? If you normally use a thousand points per year, you'd still need to transfer in points for the next year vacations.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Just sit home a few years and you'll catch up.

 

[Bing Showei]

Just sit home a few years and you'll catch up.

This is terrible advice.

It's been scientifically proven that time spent outside of the Disney bubble quickly degrades the effects of Disney branded magic, and rose colored Vacation Club glasses become clouded with such things as the realities of timeshare ownership; paying dues and not getting a countdown timer until your next trip.

Prolonged exposure to the real world has been known to get people to travel and see real castles, real Polynesian bungalows, real wilderness preserves, and worse, real countries around the world. Why would you wish that upon anyone, DEB?

 

[CanadaDisney05]

Prolonged exposure to the real world has been known to get people to travel and see real castles, real Polynesian bungalows, real wilderness preserves, and worse, real countries around the world. Why would you wish that upon anyone, DEB?

ugh

 

[Bing Showei]

ugh

Right?! Apparently “Canada” is a real place. I thought you were just a big world showcase fan.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Right?! Apparently “Canada” is a real place. I thought you were just a big world showcase fan.

We saw the Butchart Gardens on Vancouver Island, BC in 1994 that the Victoria Gardens at WDW were based on .

 

[cheryl.UK]

Some of us do both! We tend to do WDW 2 years out of every 3 then see the actual world in between. So far there are only 3 countries in Epcot that we haven't seen in the real world.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

So, I read the first comment and was like, yeah that's sound advice. So I put in a rental request with a company that shan't be named, and got an email back with the current pricing and it's $19 pp for 7-11 mos. That makes buying much more attractive. If I buy a contract, yeah I may have too many points in future but with the rental market so strong, I'd do okay.
I already rented points from a member for a short trip in January at $18 but I felt okay about that because it's for business (taking clients). Ultimately, I guess I could use infinite points for business in that way in the future if need be. I have some time, so I think I'll keep my eyes peeled for the perfect contract or make offers with my fingers crossed. This DVC market has not stalled for 5 years or so and I'm sort of stunned. Rental requests? Just more awareness?

We are planning a non-disney trip for XMas and I can hardly think of where to go. I like what I like and I love Disney Parks and my good fortune in being able to go often is not lost upon me; I try to share whenever I can. We do go to Canada each Feb break and abroad in the summers (Asia/Europe/S. America so far). I know its a big wide world but I find the Disney version to be so much less stressful. When we retire, perhaps we'll be more intrepid.

 

[eMoneyBug]

Xmas in Tokyo Disney is my vote for your family

 

[CaliAdventurer]

Xmas in Tokyo Disney is my vote for your family

Not a bad idea! I wonder if it's too late and how cold it is. I'm going to check. We were thinking Spain. ? Next year we want to try the ABD Christmas River Cruise in Germany & Austria which sounds like a dream!

 

[Deb & Bill]

So, I read the first comment and was like, yeah that's sound advice. So I put in a rental request with a company that shan't be named, and got an email back with the current pricing and it's $19 pp for 7-11 mos. That makes buying much more attractive. If I buy a contract, yeah I may have too many points in future but with the rental market so strong, I'd do okay.
I already rented points from a member for a short trip in January at $18 but I felt okay about that because it's for business (taking clients). Ultimately, I guess I could use infinite points for business in that way in the future if need be. I have some time, so I think I'll keep my eyes peeled for the perfect contract or make offers with my fingers crossed. This DVC market has not stalled for 5 years or so and I'm sort of stunned. Rental requests? Just more awareness?

We are planning a non-disney trip for XMas and I can hardly think of where to go. I like what I like and I love Disney Parks and my good fortune in being able to go often is not lost upon me; I try to share whenever I can. We do go to Canada each Feb break and abroad in the summers (Asia/Europe/S. America so far). I know its a big wide world but I find the Disney version to be so much less stressful. When we retire, perhaps we'll be more intrepid.

It's probably already sold out, but Yellowstone in the winter is wonderful. We're planning on that in Jan 2021. We've done it twice before.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

It's probably already sold out, but Yellowstone in the winter is wonderful. We're planning on that in Jan 2021. We've done it twice before.

I want to do the Wyoming in Winter ABD! I looked and it looks like the easiest Winter Wonderland for this year will be Banff. But Davids just put out their confirmed reservations that includes a nice stay at BWV over NYE. So it's kind of a chice between those extremes at the moment. Leaning towards non disney. Its hard because are so heavily invested with Disney Parks/ WDW mostly that we feel like we have to go Passes etc etc.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I want to do the Wyoming in Winter ABD! I looked and it looks like the easiest Winter Wonderland for this year will be Banff. But Davids just put out their confirmed reservations that includes a nice stay at BWV over NYE. So it's kind of a chice between those extremes at the moment. Leaning towards non disney. Its hard because are so heavily invested with Disney Parks/ WDW mostly that we feel like we have to go Passes etc etc.

We haven't done ABD and after looking at their itinerary, I wouldn't. It only had one night at the Old Faithful Snow Lodge. We book this on our own and have stayed two nights at Mammoth, three nights at the Snow Lodge and two more nights at Mammoth. Then we schedule our own activities and meals, plus the snowcoach to and from Old Faithful. We drove the first time from our home in Eastern Montana when we lived there, flew to Billings the last time we did it and will fly into Bozeman the next time we do it.