To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

DopeyBadger

Imagathoner
Joined
Oct 15, 2015
DoLittle HM Weather Report: 5 Days to go!

Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:

Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 8.09.50 AM.png




And the current forecast is:

Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 10.53.34 AM.png


Start at 7am and end at 9am
9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
9/17/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind

Overall, still holding steady at T+D around 130, super cloudy, and a chance of rain. C'mon cold front! Maybe I should get out there with a fan and blow the air around to get the cold front here earlier...
 
  • DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    2019 DopeyBadger Racing Season Prediction Contest - Race #3 (DoLittle HM)

    My Guess!

    So the methodology on this one was to go back in a way to the drawing board and re-evaluate my methods for making predictions. Most recently it seems that I personally have far faster goals than what occurs in reality. Being off by minutes on the 5k and by a good chunk on the mile test. So I decided to review old data to see if I could again re-evaluate my pace goal choices.

    I started with the Garmin VO2max value. When I used that in relation to a T+D adjustment I saw that a PR in those conditions would be like a 20:39 5k time. When I ran the actual race it was a 20:40. So the times lined up. There is something to be said for going out in the beginning of the race WAY too fast for the 5k and that's likely a contributing factor to the overall time.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 10.58.53 AM.png

    But when the T+D was in the 130s (like this race will be) I found that the delta between my Garmin VO2max and Race VDOT was around 8-9 (2019 Brat Fest 5k, 2018 Madison Mini HM, and 2017 Hot2Trot 10k). But the best case scenarios have typically been in the 6s. So something between a delta of 6-9 is reasonable. My current Garmin VO2max is a 56. So that means a VDOT of 47-50 is a reasonable range. One caveat that may or may not matter is that the Garmin VO2max value is almost exclusively built on non-Next% shoes. So it remains to be seen what impact those shoes may or may not have.

    I then also went back and re-evaluated my average HR during races using my current watch.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 10.59.27 AM.png

    To my surprise, my average HR in races has been trending lower with this watch that it did with my old setup. So while I thought a HR of 152 was marathon and HR of 155-156 was HM, it would appear based on actual results that my HR is somewhat lower. My average HR for a HM is 152 and M is 148. I punched in my resting HR and max HR into Daniels calculations and found that his ranges mostly agree with my recent data. So I've shifted my HR expectations down such that M HR is now around 148. For 5k/10k evaluation I used the max in races rather than the average which lines up well with Daniels.

    I then evaluated the DoLittle HM course.

    436942

    Using MapMyRun I was able to roughly ascertain the elevation gain of each mile.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 11.00.00 AM.png

    I then used that information and figured out what the Strava GAP would be for each mile based on the gain/loss within that mile. Such that it should create an evenly effort-paced run more-so than an evenly paced run. So as an example, mile 2 is predicted to have a gain of 67 feet. Per evaluations of prior runs on Strava, a 67 foot gain in a mile is roughly a +22 second on grade adjusted pacing. So if the goal pace was a 7:00 min/mile, then in reality mile 2 should be a 7:22 goal when taking the hill into account. As you can see, you gain far less from a downhill than you lose from an uphill (+38 ft is +15sec, but -37 ft is only -4 sec).

    I then determined that the total elevation gain per MMR should be around 289 feet or 22 feet per mile. Based on several recent runs of 28-40 ft per mile, I estimate that the final average pace should be about +4 seconds from a flat road (so ideal pace of 7:00 means 7:04 is likely based on hills).

    Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 11.00.14 AM.png

    I then combined the VO2max data, HR data, and elevation data to create a goal pace range for each mile.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 11.00.47 AM.png

    The VDOT of 50 would yield a HM of 1:31:37 and VDOT of 47 would yield a 1:36:36. I adjusted the goal paces down by 4 seconds to account for the hills, but then my Garmin VO2max is based on training on hills so I think it's a justified move. Then each individual mile is based on the predicted GAP and the elevation gains from each subsequent mile. So mile 1 is suppose to be a +15 per GAP, and thus the equivalent effort to a 6:55 mile is a 7:10 mile. The result is an undulated pace but what should be an equal effort throughout. I'll print off the range from delta 6 to delta 9 and attempt to be between those mile times for each mile. The three red miles are the changes in elevation (0-3.4 is uphill, 3.4-6.55 is downhill, 6.55-9.7 is uphill, and 9.7 to finish is downhill). Once I reach the GPS mile 9.7 is when the gloves come off and I ran as fast as possible to the finish line.

    I then added a section below that postulates the "Next% Effect". If the shoes generate a HM for my height, weight, and pace to be about a 12 sec/mile gain, then the range of performance for delta 6-9 shifts from 1:31:37-1:36:36 to 1:29:07-1:34:06. The overlap occurs between 1:31:37-1:34:06. If the shoes allow me to run faster, then I'll wait to see that effect in the last 3.4 mile downhill. A gain of 12 seconds per mile during that time frame would yield a roughly 40 second gain in performance. So a 1:31:04 at best.

    For my guess, I'm going to err on the slower side of the delta range and use the 8 value. So that would be a 1:35:02 HM. I'll say the shoes gain me 40 seconds in the last 3.4 miles for a time of 1:34:22. My current "cumulative time off" is -59 seconds (so I've so far guessed 59 seconds too fast). So 1:34:22 + 59 seconds is a final guess of 1:35:21.

    Now let's go break 90 min! :P I know one thing I'm going to do is watch Goku vs Jiren on the car ride to the race. Just going to channel my inner autonomous ultra instinct. We're almost to the series finale on Adult Swim!

    1520178636_Ultra Instinct Goku mastered GIF 1.gif
     
  • flav

    Loving My Ears
    Joined
    Oct 12, 2014
    1:35:50 basically your prediction plus my cumulative mistakes

    ETA: We played prediction game when I was pregnant and my cousin said he was betting for the date the doctor had predicted since it was the highest probability... He won. So the expert best guess is my guess.
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    Omg how did I go all summer without seeing one notification!!!
    My guess 1:36:11
    Well I guess that means it has been a good summer!

    ETA: We played prediction game when I was pregnant and my cousin said he was betting for the date the doctor had predicted since it was the highest probability... He won. So the expert best guess is my guess.
    Smart play. Although who knows in the end.
     
  • DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    DoLittle HM Weather Report: 4 Days to go!

    Time to start getting a feeling as to where the weather will be. Historically for DoLittle we're looking at this:

    Screen Shot 2019-09-13 at 8.09.50 AM.png


    And the current forecast is:

    Screen Shot 2019-09-19 at 10.23.01 AM.png

    Start at 7am and end at 9am
    9/13/19 - T+D of 112-119 (adj of 1%), 53% cloudy, 19% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
    9/14/19 - T+D of 127-132 (adj of 2%), 81% cloudy, 33% chance of rain, 11mph SW wind
    9/16/19 - T+D of 128-131 (adj of 2%), 82% cloudy, 37% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
    9/17/19 - T+D of 126-129 (adj of 2%), 93% cloudy, 43% chance of rain, 8mph SW wind
    9/18/19 - T+D of 132-134 (adj of 2.5%), 93% cloudy, 41% chance of rain, 7mph SW wind
    9/19/19 - T+D of 134-136 (adj of 2.5%), 95% cloudy, 45% chance of rain, 9mph SW wind

    You can really see the dew point is trying to drop before Sunday morning. It's just right on the tipping point. There's still hope.
     


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