To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

[DopeyBadger]

You gave her a loving home & happy life. No failure there at all.

Thanks @FFigawi.

 

[sourire]

So sorry about Lucy!! The pics are precious.

I hope it’s not too late for the prediction. Sorry I’m so behind! I’ll go with 1:30:03. Good luck, and have fun!!

 

[DopeyBadger]

So sorry about Lucy!! The pics are precious.

Thanks.

I hope it’s not too late for the prediction. Sorry I’m so behind! I’ll go with 1:30:03. Good luck, and have fun!!

Just in time.

 

[DopeyBadger]

3 days until the Madison Mini Half Marathon!

Weather update!



8/9/18 - T+D of 121, 15% chance rain, 11% cloudy, 4mph wind
8/10/18 - T+D of 125, 15% chance rain, 27% cloudy, 1mph wind
8/11/18 - T+D of 125, 15% chance rain, 14% cloudy, 3mph wind
8/12/18 - T+D of 125, 19% chance rain, 47% cloudy, 1mph wind
8/13/18 - T+D of 127, 8% chance rain, 19% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/14/18 - T+D of 126, 9% chance rain, 49% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/15/18 - T+D of 127, 8% chance rain, 6% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/16/18 - T+D of 129, 9% chance rain, 34% cloudy, 1mph wind

 

[DopeyBadger]

2018 Madison Mini HM Predictions

Still not quite sure where this one is going to go yet. I still feel like I don't have a totally great idea where my fitness is, hence why it's a good reason to run this race prior to Chicago to try and nail that down. But I do know that one of my favorite parts of racing is playing the prediction game. Using recent data to try and pre-predict the race outcome. My Dopey guess was probably one of my best to date with a cumulative time guess of 5:47:50 vs actual of 5:45:14. Let's see how close we can get this time around.

The EA Model



So the last few weeks I've been running my easy runs (EA and EB) almost exclusively by HR on my normal hilly route of 30 feet per gain per mile (so possibly similar hilliness to Madison Mini). Trying to average a 132 for EA and 138 for EB. As we all know, the temperature and dew point (and sun) can play games with pacing. So I focused on the HR and effort to find an appropriate pace for each day this summer.

-The blue dots on the above graph represent the relationship between my EA pace and the T+D for a given run.
-The ones with the black circle outlines are the most recent EA efforts.
-The dotted blue line represents a polynomial line of best fit.
-If my fitness was that of a 2:58 marathoner under ideal conditions, then the pink dots represent the EA pace to T+D relationship using this chart:



-If my fitness was that of a 3:02 marathoner under ideal conditions, then the green dots represent the EA pace to T+D relationship.

I think what I glean from this graph is that my "average performance" (or line of best fit) closely resembles the pink dot theoretical values (maybe just a little lower). If dots show up below this line, then that means my fitness isn't as good as perceived. If dots show up above this line, then that means my fitness is better. The 4 most recent runs are split evenly between above and below. So the conclusion I would draw from this graph is that my fitness is close to a 2:58 marathon runner (under ideal conditions) assuming my EA effort is representative of my current fitness. There is a little bit of a wiggle above and below this line on any given day suggesting more of a range than a set value.

Given the T+D is now predicted at 129 at start and 133 at finish. Then that would place the adjustment somewhere around a 2-2.5%. I'll probably run a HM (per my Garmin) in about 13.16 miles (the average HM for me over the 15 I have done thus far).

So this would suggest a tight window on 2:58 of 1:27:27 to 1:27:53. I'd venture to guess using the end T+D is probably more accurate, so a 1:27:53. To get a reasonable range, I'll also use the green dots. That would give an upper prediction of 1:30:08.

So for this model, I'll split the middle and say a 1:29:00.

Garmin Model

Garmin produces a "VO2max" value and "race prediction". These are notoriously way off (predicts better than reality) for me in terms of actual performance and I've covered reasons before. I also now believe that a better term for the Garmin "VO2max" is "VO2peak". The max represents the highest achieved under ideal conditions. Summer days are typically not ideal conditions. So a better term would be VO2peak, which is reliant on current conditions as research shows VO2peak can be influenced by ambient temperature, dew, sun, etc.

I've shown previously that whatever my Garmin says is my VO2max is usually 6 points less in a VDOT race performance. So my current VO2peak as of this morning is 56. So then, I would use a VDOT of 50 to get a guess based on historical race performance to Garmin VO2peak.



A VDOT of 50 is equivalent to a HM of 1:31:30.

Two caveats to this model:
-Garmin's VO2peak is based on current conditions. My last few runs have been a T+D of 150, 152, 135-143, 152, and 154. So since the race is at a predicted 129-133, it would seem the T+D is going to be somewhat different than my VO2peak would have been influenced by. If I adjust the 6:58 pace down by 2.5% (difference between a 5% adjustment at T+D of 150s and 2.5% adjustment at T+D of 130s), then the predicted pace would be a 6:48 min/mile. So, instead of a 1:31:30, this would predict a 1:29:13.
-The "correctness" of the VO2peak is heavily reliant on my weight being accurate. I haven't weighed myself since May-June. So, I don't know if the currently inputted weight of 164 is accurate. I'd guess I'm somewhere between 157-167. Using the calculation:

Absolute VO2max = (weight x VDOT) / 1000

We can figure out that a 164 weight and 50.0 VDOT is a 3.7 liters/min absolute VO2max. Using a weight of 157 instead with a 3.7 liters/min, you get a VDOT of 52.2. And using a weight of 167 instead, you get a VDOT of 49.1. So if we use the 1:29:13 as a value for 164, then that gives us a range of 1:33:00 (using 49.1 VDOT (or 167 pounds)) to 1:28:10 (using a 52.2 VDOT (or 157 pounds). I'm probably somewhere between 157 and 164 based on how my clothes are fitting.

So between 1:28:10 to 1:29:13 would be an adjusted guess based on the two caveats (current temp vs race temp, and possible difference in weight).

So for this model, I'll split the middle and say a 1:28:40.

Using a Recent Hard Run Model

Simple enough. Look back at the last hard run.

Wed, 8/11/18

"Flat" M Tempo - 8 + 5 miles (TDAGP- 6:58, 7:01; AP-6:58, 7:12; GAP-6:55, 7:08) *8/8 + 3/5

T+D was 130-136. So nearly the same temps. I held a 6:58 min/mile for the first 8 miles with an elevation gain around 22 ft per mile. That suggests a 6:41 min/mile for the HM Tempo. With a 13.16 HM, that would be a 1:27:53.

So this model suggests a 1:27:53.

*********

So,

EA Model = 1:29:00
Garmin Model = 1:28:40
Hard Run Model = 1:27:53

I'll go with a 1:28:50 (splitting the EA and Garmin).

Final Predictions:

1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:23:45 - @bovie
1:24:27 - @Capang
1:24:42 - @Bree
1:25:13 - @KSellers88
1:25:30 - @Chaitali
1:26:10 - @Jules76126
1:26:35 - @FredtheDuck
1:26:52 - @canglim52
1:26:56 - @ZellyB
1:27:15 - @opusone
1:27:30 - @MissLiss279
1:27:33 - @roxymama
1:27:49 - @steph0808
1:28:12 - @mrsg00fy
1:28:28 - @pixarmom
1:28:50 - @DopeyBadger
1:28:58 - @jennamfeo
1:29:11 - @rteetz
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots
1:29:58 - @PCFriar80
1:30:03 - @sourire
1:31:42 - @FFigawi
1:31:47 - @garneska
69 6 (1:39:06) - Gigi

*roxymama's guess was after the cutoff, but I have accepted it as official.

I've won the last two predictions games (Dopey and Hot2Trot), so let's see if someone can knock me off the champ seat. Best of luck everyone!

 

[SarahDisney]

Since I know my prediction is a long shot, I want you to finish 8 seconds slower than predicted so that @jennamfeo wins

 

[DopeyBadger]

Since I know my prediction is a long shot, I want you to finish 8 seconds slower than predicted so that @jennamfeo wins

Only needs 4 seconds to get that tiebreaker win! A 1:28:54 would be her winning number over me.

 

[PCFriar80]

2018 Madison Mini HM Predictions

Still not quite sure where this one is going to go yet. I still feel like I don't have a totally great idea where my fitness is, hence why it's a good reason to run this race prior to Chicago to try and nail that down. But I do know that one of my favorite parts of racing is playing the prediction game. Using recent data to try and pre-predict the race outcome. My Dopey guess was probably one of my best to date with a cumulative time guess of 5:47:50 vs actual of 5:45:14. Let's see how close we can get this time around.

The EA Model

View attachment 344171

So the last few weeks I've been running my easy runs (EA and EB) almost exclusively by HR on my normal hilly route of 30 feet per gain per mile (so possibly similar hilliness to Madison Mini). Trying to average a 132 for EA and 138 for EB. As we all know, the temperature and dew point (and sun) can play games with pacing. So I focused on the HR and effort to find an appropriate pace for each day this summer.

-The blue dots on the above graph represent the relationship between my EA pace and the T+D for a given run.
-The ones with the black circle outlines are the most recent EA efforts.
-The dotted blue line represents a polynomial line of best fit.
-If my fitness was that of a 2:58 marathoner under ideal conditions, then the pink dots represent the EA pace to T+D relationship using this chart:

View attachment 344148

-If my fitness was that of a 3:02 marathoner under ideal conditions, then the green dots represent the EA pace to T+D relationship.

I think what I glean from this graph is that my "average performance" (or line of best fit) closely resembles the pink dot theoretical values (maybe just a little lower). If dots show up below this line, then that means my fitness isn't as good as perceived. If dots show up above this line, then that means my fitness is better. The 4 most recent runs are split evenly between above and below. So the conclusion I would draw from this graph is that my fitness is close to a 2:58 marathon runner (under ideal conditions) assuming my EA effort is representative of my current fitness. There is a little bit of a wiggle above and below this line on any given day suggesting more of a range than a set value.

Given the T+D is now predicted at 129 at start and 133 at finish. Then that would place the adjustment somewhere around a 2-2.5%. I'll probably run a HM (per my Garmin) in about 13.16 miles (the average HM for me over the 15 I have done thus far).

So this would suggest a tight window on 2:58 of 1:27:27 to 1:27:53. I'd venture to guess using the end T+D is probably more accurate, so a 1:27:53. To get a reasonable range, I'll also use the green dots. That would give an upper prediction of 1:30:08.

So for this model, I'll split the middle and say a 1:29:00.

Garmin Model

Garmin produces a "VO2max" value and "race prediction". These are notoriously way off (predicts better than reality) for me in terms of actual performance and I've covered reasons before. I also now believe that a better term for the Garmin "VO2max" is "VO2peak". The max represents the highest achieved under ideal conditions. Summer days are typically not ideal conditions. So a better term would be VO2peak, which is reliant on current conditions as research shows VO2peak can be influenced by ambient temperature, dew, sun, etc.

I've shown previously that whatever my Garmin says is my VO2max is usually 6 points less in a VDOT race performance. So my current VO2peak as of this morning is 56. So then, I would use a VDOT of 50 to get a guess based on historical race performance to Garmin VO2peak.

View attachment 344175

A VDOT of 50 is equivalent to a HM of 1:31:30.

Two caveats to this model:
-Garmin's VO2peak is based on current conditions. My last few runs have been a T+D of 150, 152, 135-143, 152, and 154. So since the race is at a predicted 129-133, it would seem the T+D is going to be somewhat different than my VO2peak would have been influenced by. If I adjust the 6:58 pace down by 2.5% (difference between a 5% adjustment at T+D of 150s and 2.5% adjustment at T+D of 130s), then the predicted pace would be a 6:48 min/mile. So, instead of a 1:31:30, this would predict a 1:29:13.
-The "correctness" of the VO2peak is heavily reliant on my weight being accurate. I haven't weighed myself since May-June. So, I don't know if the currently inputted weight of 164 is accurate. I'd guess I'm somewhere between 157-167. Using the calculation:

Absolute VO2max = (weight x VDOT) / 1000

We can figure out that a 164 weight and 50.0 VDOT is a 3.7 liters/min absolute VO2max. Using a weight of 157 instead with a 3.7 liters/min, you get a VDOT of 52.2. And using a weight of 167 instead, you get a VDOT of 49.1. So if we use the 1:29:13 as a value for 164, then that gives us a range of 1:33:00 (using 49.1 VDOT (or 167 pounds)) to 1:28:10 (using a 52.2 VDOT (or 157 pounds). I'm probably somewhere between 157 and 164 based on how my clothes are fitting.

So between 1:28:10 to 1:29:13 would be an adjusted guess based on the two caveats (current temp vs race temp, and possible difference in weight).

So for this model, I'll split the middle and say a 1:28:40.

Using a Recent Hard Run Model

Simple enough. Look back at the last hard run.

Wed, 8/11/18

"Flat" M Tempo - 8 + 5 miles (TDAGP- 6:58, 7:01; AP-6:58, 7:12; GAP-6:55, 7:08) *8/8 + 3/5

T+D was 130-136. So nearly the same temps. I held a 6:58 min/mile for the first 8 miles with an elevation gain around 22 ft per mile. That suggests a 6:41 min/mile for the HM Tempo. With a 13.16 HM, that would be a 1:27:53.

So this model suggests a 1:27:53.

*********

So,

EA Model = 1:29:00
Garmin Model = 1:28:40
Hard Run Model = 1:27:53

I'll go with a 1:28:50 (splitting the EA and Garmin).

Final Predictions:

1:20:59 - @SarahDisney
1:23:45 - @bovie
1:24:27 - @Capang
1:24:42 - @Bree
1:25:13 - @KSellers88
1:25:30 - @Chaitali
1:26:10 - @Jules76126
1:26:35 - @FredtheDuck
1:26:52 - @canglim52
1:26:56 - @ZellyB
1:27:15 - @opusone
1:27:30 - @MissLiss279
1:27:49 - @steph0808
1:28:12 - @mrsg00fy
1:28:28 - @pixarmom
1:28:50 - @DopeyBadger
1:28:58 - @jennamfeo
1:29:11 - @rteetz
1:29:26 - @TeeterTots
1:29:58 - @PCFriar80
1:30:03 - @sourire
1:31:42 - @FFigawi
1:31:47 - @garneska
69 6 (1:39:06) - Gigi

I've won the last two predictions games (Dopey and Hot2Trot), so let's see if someone can knock me off the champ seat. Best of luck everyone!

 

[jennamfeo]

Just so you know, all of my predictions are calculated as well. I mean I don't make you a spreadsheet, but I scour your training on Strava and look at the good runs where you are hitting your intervals and checking the T&D. I plug numbers into a pace calculator and stuff. I use math. So I feel like we are gonna be reaaaaalllllyyyy close!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Just so you know, all of my predictions are calculated as well. I mean I don't make you a spreadsheet, but I scour your training on Strava and look at the good runs where you are hitting your intervals and checking the T&D. I plug numbers into a pace calculator and stuff. I use math. So I feel like we are gonna be reaaaaalllllyyyy close!

Not surprised. Not surprised one bit... Game on!

 

[DopeyBadger]

2018 Madison Mini Race Strategy

This is only a test. If this were a real race, then this message would be followed by some really interesting stuff. But this is only a test...

Well kind of I guess...

The point of this race is to test things out prior to Chicago. So that means trying to follow a race day prep and strategy similar to the Chicago Marathon plan. So that means the following:

Prior to race
-Eat breakfast no closer than 2 hours prior to the last bathroom stop (estimated at 6:30am, thus eat at 4:30am). Eat Bagel+PB+Honey and Banana. Drink 32 oz of water.
-Wear Gore Singlet and Black WI shorts with pockets.
-Arrive at least 60 min prior to race start (6:00am).
-Stretch and then WU with at least 10 min of slow easy running.
-Drink Maurten Drink 320 Mix (320 calories, 79 g carbs, 17 oz water) approximately 15 min prior to start.
-Chew 100mg of RunGum Cinnamon right after Maurten.
-Finish chewing RunGum within 5 min of start.

During race
-Carry 10 oz of Maurten 320 Drink Mix in handheld. Sip on occasionally, but should be saved until about 60 min into the race (around mile 6-7). Toss bottle (which is broken anyways) at nearest aid station when empty.
-Race blind to pace and pay attention to no metrics. Pay attention to breathing and effort. Be conservative in the beginning to save some energy for the end. The end has more elevation than does the beginning. Pac-Man.
-Change watch to no auto-laps. Press the lap button whenever I hit a "mile marker" but do my best not to see the clock time. Strava will capture "mile splits" and "lap splits". Garmin will only capture "lap splits". I'm doing this because of Chicago's notoriously wonky effect on GPS during the marathon.
-Downloaded three new albums of music to try and boost the "newness" and decrease my perception of effort with self chosen fast paced music.
-Consume 100mg RunGum at mile 7-8.
-Bring E-Gel if I feel the need for it, but between the two portions of Maurten 320 it should really be unnecessary to take an E-Gel.
-Stay calm, focused, relaxed, and above all else - motivated.

Possible live link??? (nothing mentioned on race site)
http://onlineraceresults.com/race/view_race.php?race_id=64246#racetop

 

[Sleepless Knight]

My Dopey guess was probably one of my best to date with a cumulative time guess of 5:47:50 vs actual of 5:45:14.

Since you have finished Dopey in less time than it will take me to run the marathon alone, I just want to thank you for all the guidance and support and cheering you give to so many others in this community.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Since you have finished Dopey in less time than it will take me to run the marathon alone, I just want to thank you for all the guidance and support and cheering you give to so many others in this community.

It's truly my pleasure!

 

[roxymama]

Catching way up on your journal! I'm too late for the contest DRAT. Unofficial, unable to win anything guess: 1:27:33

Also we go to St Joe All the time!!!! Been going for years. And we love it. I want to retire there or nearby one day.

And our door and front widow awning is that color green of your house. So I approve.

good luck and keep positive and just keep swimming this weekend!!! Don't stop, won't stop!!!

 

[garneska]

Wanted to say I am sorry to hear about Lucy. It is very tough and sucks.

Hope you have a great race.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I'm too late for the contest DRAT. Unofficial, unable to win anything guess: 1:27:33

I'll accept it.

Also we go to St Joe All the time!!!! Been going for years. And we love it. I want to retire there or nearby one day.

Fun! It was really nice and we're already looking to go back next year.

And our door and front widow awning is that color green of your house. So I approve.

good luck and keep positive and just keep swimming this weekend!!! Don't stop, won't stop!!!

Thanks!

Wanted to say I am sorry to hear about Lucy. It is very tough and sucks.

Thanks.

Hope you have a great race.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Tomorrow is the Madison Mini Half Marathon!

Weather update!



8/9/18 - T+D of 121, 15% chance rain, 11% cloudy, 4mph wind
8/10/18 - T+D of 125, 15% chance rain, 27% cloudy, 1mph wind
8/11/18 - T+D of 125, 15% chance rain, 14% cloudy, 3mph wind
8/12/18 - T+D of 125, 19% chance rain, 47% cloudy, 1mph wind
8/13/18 - T+D of 127, 8% chance rain, 19% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/14/18 - T+D of 126, 9% chance rain, 49% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/15/18 - T+D of 127, 8% chance rain, 6% cloudy, 2mph wind
8/16/18 - T+D of 129, 9% chance rain, 34% cloudy, 1mph wind
8/17/18 - T+D of 126, 9% chance rain, 21% cloudy, 2mph wind

Well the forecast held consistent the whole 10-day. Mid-120s, low chance of rain, partly cloudy, and almost no wind. Let's see if that's reality on race morning.

 

[ZellyB]

Can't wait to hear all about it. You'll do great!

 

[DopeyBadger]

Can't wait to hear all about it. You'll do great!

 

[roxymama]

You got this!