To Infinity and Beyond - Becoming a Better DopeyBadger (Comments Welcome)

Discussion in 'Training Journals' started by DopeyBadger, Jan 13, 2016.

  1. Anisum

    Anisum DIS Veteran

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    That's my go-to. Success varies.

    This is true. You may have a moneymaking product on your hands. Now you just have to develop your invention.
     
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  2. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    I've often wondered if rainbows were "two-sided" but always believed they were not. "Two-sided" being that the rainbow can be seen at equidistance on both sides of the location of the water droplets. This would seem to state that they are indeed not "two-sided".

    [​IMG]

    Agreed, it seems like a nice addition for racing. Definitely didn't feel the gum was really all that chewable after 5-8 minutes. Pretty stiff at that point. Luckily, I haven't that up all night effect from it.

    When the prediction model says 2:59:13 is best case scenario then it really does mean every second matters. I know that seems like a case of over-preparing or...

    [​IMG]

    Agreed!

    Depending on how you tolerate caffeine, I think you might find it useful. I just caution to be wary it may mask the feeling of fatigue (which is an important indicator). Although maybe this was just my experience.

    :lmao:

    Someone beat you to it....



    Peak HM Tempo, a Progression run that has alluded me, and the peak of the long run with a fast finish. Agreed! When I look back I appreciate it a bit more that I was able to survive. Now time to thrive.

    bolt-200.gif

    That's what I attempted.
     
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  4. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    All sounds good. Looks like you're right on track. Stay safe!
     
  5. michigandergirl

    michigandergirl DIS Veteran

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    :rotfl2::rotfl2:
     
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  6. garneska

    garneska DIS Veteran

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    I did a TM run Monday morning. At 7 am winds were only 18 mph with rain and cold. I could have run outside but wimped out.

    The storm really picked up about 2 as predicted. It was crazy. We had sustained wind of 40 mph with gusts of 60. In general the issue was the falling trees, with said trees taking power lines with. We made it till 5:15 pm, then the power went out. I can see the tree laying on the power line.

    It's morning still no power, but rain should end soon. Will definitely wait till we have light to get that run in today. Am thinking lunch time.
     
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  7. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    Glad to hear you're safe!
     
  8. roxymama

    roxymama DIS Veteran

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    Fun fact #19 (you're in the teens!): There are currently 94 lighthouses along the lakefront of Lake Michigan. The first American lighthouse was built along Boston Harbor in 1716. Little Brewster Island is where the first lighthouse was ever built in what is now the United States. While that lighthouse is long gone, the current island's resident is actually the second-oldest working lighthouse in the United States, dating back to 1783.
     
  9. Anisum

    Anisum DIS Veteran

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    This fact needs more unicorns.
     
  10. roxymama

    roxymama DIS Veteran

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    How's this?

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Anisum

    Anisum DIS Veteran

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    Much improved. I am glad to approve of this fact as it has now reached the standards I expect from you.
     
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  12. garneska

    garneska DIS Veteran

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    Run today was tough. Had to do it after work. It was still drizzling and windy. I could not run in the park with all the down trees. Am glad the beltline was clear. I just did nit want to do it, but skipping does not get you closer to BQ. I even hit my paces.

    Still have no power but was able to get a quick but warm shower. Hopefully have some news about power tomorrow. Otherwise I may be making plans to stay with my family.
     
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  13. canglim52

    canglim52 Mouseketeer

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    I tried this on my 10 mile race and it definitely helped a lot!
     
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  14. roxymama

    roxymama DIS Veteran

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    Fun fact #18: Unicorns sparkle when they are poised to kill.

    (this is an actual fact I found on the internet so it must be true. Also probably don't get too close to a sparkling unicorn.)
     
  15. cadek

    cadek Please stand clear of the doors

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    Late to the party here... I read the beginning of your training log, and your 2017 report, but if I want to get anything done today I'll have to skip the other 100 pages! I admire your dedication to your training and improving your race times! I love how you display your medals and finish times! I remember those days of carrying kids and them only wanting mom to hold them. It's amazing what a difference a year makes, and it should get better!

    I admit my goals are the opposite of yours and plan for this to be my slowest half and full marathon. I want to stop for characters and just take it all in. I've gotten away from road races and found I love the trails, and so do my legs. I ran myself into shin splints and tibial stress fractures. Since then I've slowed down and it has allowed me to run more miles than before, without injury. I've been running by heart rate zones, but might try working some speed into my runs. I'm a little concerned I'll start feeling those shin splints again.

    I look forward to following along!
     
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  16. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    :welcome:

    Mostly a stream of #math, incoherent rambling, training summaries, and race reports. Now you're all caught up! :D

    Thanks! It's been a long and fulfilling journey with a major crossroads in 18 days.

    The times have always mattered so much to me, so it was nice to find a way to represent that.

    We're hoping! They're coming with in January 2018 again and we think it'll be different this time because she's grown up so much since then.

    I can appreciate that. I think that's the beauty of the Disney races is because there's certainly more than one way to enjoy them. Maybe I'll stop for a character this time since it might be my last Disney race in a while, maybe....

    I can appreciate attempting to avoid shin splints and stress fractures for sure. We'll see what the future holds for me and maybe I'll take some trial races into my future routine. I'm not terribly good at them because I have a very low ground clearance on my stride.

    Looking forward to hearing more from you!
     
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  17. dancingtodisney

    dancingtodisney Karen

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    Hey!!

    Congratulations on your progression run!! You smashed it!!

    [​IMG]

    I'm just always so amazed when I read your updates and geek in me loves all the number crunching (who says accountants are boring?!)

    I know you at a super critical point in your training now but I was hoping you might have time for some advice for me. Running the Disneyland Paris weekend in a week and I'm really undertrained due to the double hamstring tear, not worried about finishing but it's going to be LONG. As you know Dad (@Declanb) was training really hard but had a serious set back with injury too but he's still lightyears ahead in terms of fitness and speed and my sister has also struggled a bit with injury but has a lot more miles under her belt in the run up to Paris.

    I have 5 weeks between Paris and Orlando (Wine & Dine Half) plus a 6th week in Orlando before the runs... Any tips on how to train during that time?

    **side note @roxymama your facts are giving me so much joy!!
     
  18. roxymama

    roxymama DIS Veteran

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    Excellent!
    Fun Fact #17 Unicorns are very rare (if you don't cook them long enough)
     
  19. dancingtodisney

    dancingtodisney Karen

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    :rotfl:
     
  20. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    :wave:

    Thanks! Probably one of my proudest training runs of this cycle given the struggles on the other two attempts. Nice gif!

    I'm glad you appreciate it. :teacher:

    How far out are you from the double hamstring tear? I'd venture to guess with such a short time frame that you should stick to the easy/endurance side of training. Means most, if not almost all, training should be about 45-90 seconds slower if continuous runner and 120 seconds slower if run/walker than your current fitness HM Tempo pace is. Anything more than 30 minutes is a good run. There are a couple golden zones of endurance training at 60-90 minutes and 120-150 minutes. I always recommend not going over 150 minutes in training and especially if you're just coming back into a training routine. Always best to be healthy on race day than overtrained and injured. Let me know if you're looking for something more specific.

    OMG! :lmao:
     
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  21. DopeyBadger

    DopeyBadger Imagathoner

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    2017 Milwaukee Lakefront Prediction Contest!

    Alright posters and lurkers, let's play a prediction game! I want to hear from everyone. I'd like to hear your prediction for my upcoming Milwaukee Lakefront Marathon on Oct 1st. Please don't be concerned that your time prediction will have much of an impact on my chances. I could run really well, or I could crash and burn. Anything is possible. I will be giving my best effort no matter what. Here are some rules:

    1) Predictions must be made after this post either in this journal, to me verbally, or on my Strava account.
    2) Only one prediction per person.
    3) Predictions must be in by Sunday, September 24th end of day (Central time zone).
    4) Winner will be determined by whomever is closest to the final official race time (so not Garmin 26.2 mile time). No "Price is Right" rules, which means you can go over/under on the time prediction and still win. Closest is closest.
    5) Predictions can be as close as you like to another person’s guess. So, if someone says 3:03:00, you can guess 3:03:01
    6) A prediction must be in time. Thus, a guess of "you'll do your best" or something similar is appreciated but not valid.
    7) The tie-breaker will be the person who guessed first. So, if the two closest predictions are 10 seconds off the real time (one person 10 seconds high and the other 10 seconds low), then the person who guessed first is determined to be the winner.
    8) In the event I don't finish, the race is cancelled, or I don't have an official time, then there will be no winner.
    9) The winner receives one (1) $10 gift card from Amazon via email.

    I think that covers everything. I am free to update these rules if something comes up during the prediction process. I will add any amended rules below this sentence with a time stamp as to when the rules were updated. Everyone is welcome to play!

    Some facts to help you determine my time:

    Current Official PRs:
    Marathon – 3:20:52 (7:40 min/mile) - 1/8/2017 – Strava Link
    Half Marathon – 1:38:49 (7:33 min/mile) – 12/6/2015 – Garmin Link
    10k – 43:25 (7:00 min/mile) – 1/6/2017 – Strava Link
    5k – 20:30 (6:35 min/mile) – 5/27/2017 – Strava Link

    Current Unofficial PRs:
    Marathon – 3:20:52 (7:40 min/mile) – 1/8/2017 – Strava Link
    Half Marathon – 1:36:27 (7:22 min/mile) – 1/8/2017 – Strava Link
    10 mile – 1:09:57 (7:00 min/mile) – 9/14/2017 – Strava Link
    10k – 42:50 (6:55 min/mile) – 4/27/2017 – Strava Link
    5k – 19:21 (6:15 min/mile) – 5/13/2017 – Strava Link
    Mile – 6:01 – 5/13/2017 – Strava Link

    The necessary 26.2 mile pace for a 2:59:XX marathon is a 6:52 min/mile. So, I'm either crazy or nuts!

    Training Plan

    Screen Shot 2017-09-13 at 7.38.57 PM.png

    This is the data from my last four marathons (not including Dopey 2016 which included 22 miles of racing in the days proceeding). All of the times above show each individual marathon tempo training runs. The “training pace” is the scheduled pace from the beginning of the training plan. The “avg T pace” is the average actual training pace. The “race pace” is the actual pace run during the corresponding race per my Garmin. The “R pace over 26.2” is the final time I ran divided by 26.2 miles (to make the official race pace). The “ratio” is the difference in “avg T pace” and “R pace over 26.2” which gives a relationship between actual training pace and final time. The WI and Lake 2016 were 0.5-0.6% slower than training pace. Lakefront 2015 was 2.5% faster than training pace.

    -The scheduled training pace of Lakefront 2017 was a 6:58 min/mile (3:02:32 marathon over 26.2 miles).

    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 11.15.15 AM.png

    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 11.15.30 AM.png

    -The average training pace of all 13 marathon tempo training runs was a 7:01 min/mile.
    -The average training pace of all 13 marathon tempo training runs with a T+D adjustment to 100 was a 6:53 min/mile.
    -The average training pace of the last 8 marathon tempo training runs was a 6:59 min/mile and a 6:54 T+D adjusted.
    -Historically, my HR is between a 148-152 for a marathon. A total of 8/13 M Tempo runs had a HR between 148-152 and 6/8 in the last few weeks.
    -When I ran Lakefront 2015, my Garmin measured 26.35 miles (a 0.6% increase).
    -When I ran Lakefront 2016, my Garmin measured 26.36 miles (a 0.6% increase).
    -Lakefront 2015 was the best I have ever felt running a marathon. If I were to match the splits of Lakefront 2015 relative to my current average training pace (7:01), then I would run a 2:59:08 (6:50 min/mile). This would be a 1:31:34 1st half (6:59 min/mile) and a 1:27:34 2nd half (6:41 min/mile). This takes into account the 0.6% distance increase.
    -Lakefront 2016 I was likely overtrained, was not hitting my intervals (only hit 70% on a weekly basis in one of the last seven weeks of training), and suffered a shin splint injury mid-race. If I were to match the splits of Lakefront 2016 relative to my current training pace (7:01), then I would run a 3:04:42 (7:03 min/mile). This would be a 1:31:59 1st half (6:57 min/mile) and a 1:33:43 2nd half (7:09 min/mile). This takes into account the 0.6% distance increase.
    -This would suggest the highest probability of my final marathon time lies between 2:59:08 and 3:04:42.

    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 11.17.00 AM.png

    -If were to use only the last 8 M Tempo runs (6:59 average), then the highest probability prediction window would be 2:58:25-3:03:57.

    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 11.17.59 AM.png

    -During this training cycle, I have hit above 80% of M Tempo intervals in 12/13 runs.
    -During this training cycle, I have hit 100% of M Tempo intervals in 8/13 runs. I’m usually very grateful to hit one, which I believe did not occur during Lakefront 2016 training. I believe Lakefront 2015 was close to 100% on all M Tempo runs but I don’t have any data to support this idea.
    -During this training cycle, my weekly interval hit rates have been 94, 100, 79, 70, 88, 94, 94, 92, 100, 94, 100, and 85%. The interval hit rate of Lakefront 2016 was 65%.
    -A Hansons easy pace for a 3:02:30 (my scheduled marathon training pace) is between a 7:54-8:28 min/mile. Of the 38 easy runs done since Hot2Trot (mid-June), only 5 had an average pace between 7:54-8:28. The majority of easy running was done at an average pace between 8:30-9:00.
    -The easy day HR goal is <65% HRR which for me is 132 beats per minute. Of the 38 easy runs, 37 had an average HR less than 132 beats per minute. The majority of the easy runs had an average between 125-130.
    -The goal of Lakefront 2017 training was to recreate the Lakefront 2015 training outcome. During Lakefront 2015, I ran for about 7:20 hours per week. During Lakefront 2016, I ran for 8:49 hours per week. During Lakefront 2017, I ran for about 7:54 hours per week.
    -The T+D for Lakefront 2015 was 79-91 and for 2016 was 121-125. Too soon to predict 2017. The last five years T+D have been 121-125, 79-91, 79-105, 114-125, 77-106, and 69-79.
    -My goal is to break 3 hours and run a 2:59:59 or better.

    Alright, so let's hear what you've got. I'll update this post as frequently as I can with the current predictions. Along with your prediction, I’d love to hear your reasoning behind it. Good Luck!

    Current Predictions
    2:48:10 - Jax (Baby Nephew)
    2:54:41 - Josh (BIL)
    2:55:00 - Barb (GMIL)
    2:56:34 - Cassie (Sister)
    2:57:00 - Steph (Wife)
    2:57:27 - @kywyldcat03
    2:57:33 - Juli (co-worker)
    2:58:00 - Harry (GFIL)
    2:58:03 - Carol (Mom)
    2:58:18 - Brian (BIL)
    2:58:30 - @JClimacus
    2:58:41 - Mark (co-worker)
    2:58:46 - @run.minnie.miles
    2:58:58 - Bethany (co-worker)
    2:59:00 - @BikeFan
    2:59:22 - Bradley (co-worker)
    2:59:31 - @PCFriar80
    2:59:32 - Gary (co-worker)
    2:59:39 - @ZellyB
    2:59:48 - @pixarmom
    2:59:50 - @mrsg00fy
    2:59:57 - @Dis5150
    2:59:58 - @Anisum
    2:59:59 - @sourire
    3:00:01 - @rteetz
    3:00:03 - @disneydaydreamer33
    3:00:26 - @michigandergirl
    3:00:47 - Cyndi (MIL)
    3:01:20 - @FredtheDuck
    3:01:28 - Gigi (3yr old daughter)
    3:01:29 - @FFigawi
    3:01:55 - @OldSlowGoofyGuy
    3:02:17 - @MissLiss279
    3:02:30 - @roxymama
    3:02:52 - @canglim52
    3:02:53 - @dancingtodisney
    3:03:33 - Logan (co-worker)
    3:04:27 - Ken (Brother)
    3:04:32 - @opusone
    3:07:15 - @FelisLachesis
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2017 at 2:31 PM

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