Mousesavers updates a chart showing the release dates for the deepest discounts year after year.
https://www.mousesavers.com/historical-information-on-walt-disney-world-resort-discounts/#codetrends
This is our second go-round as AP holders. I always check the discounts the day they come out (we travel 4-6 times per year), but so far I have NEVER used the AP discount. I booked it once, but then I found a better rate for the same room on Orbitz. Most of the time, the availability is pathetic. I book the best rooms I can originally, then rebook after each discount if I can get a better room or price. For our Sept trip, the only rooms available were suites for over $1000/night, so I stuck with the Boardwalk Inn I had booked for $340/nt on the general public room disc. For our Nov trip, I booked free-dining over Thanksgiving(will use the tickets towards next AP). I needed to add a couple days to make the rooms match our flights and would have preferred two switch one of our two rooms over to a room-only offer, but literally nothing was available over our dates on the AP offer. I have already booked our rooms for Jan and March under the Visa offer. We are open to trying different resorts, but I would be shocked if AP disc come even close to the rates we already booked. DO NOT plan for the AP discounts! By the time they are released, only the most expensive rooms are available at each resort, so it doesn't really matter if the discount is 5% more. Book the best you can when each discount is released, then re-book if you find a better offer later.
The other perks are nice though