Some in Congress want to reverse CDC sail order.

[tvguy]

Yeah, I should not have said non-issue, but less of an issue. I.E. we are not as limited to specific distribute sites that can store under -90 and we are not limited to transports that can maintain that level of temperature. The Moderna vaccine can be transported and stored in traditionally available equipment that many pharmacies and office already have.



I do not know where you are getting your information. Moderna has stated publicly that they have 20 Million doses ready for distribution by the end of 2020. Pfizer has 50 Million. That's 70 million. by End of 2020. NOT Q3 of 2021. Now with each person needing 2, that's only 35 million people. That said, there are 16 Million total people in the health care occupation, so that more than covers all Health Care workers by end of THIS year. That does not include AstraZenica and J&J which are not far behind and both also have millions of doses ready to go.

Pfizer is going to file for FDA emergency approval this week. Every expert is saying that they expect the FDA to grant it and distribution to start around Mid-December. Widespread distribution of between 2-4 different varieties would begin in April, and last through maybe July.

That's just not Q3 2021 to start no matter how you swing it.

And in any case, it's not really the issue. The issue on this board is whether or not the CDC should permit the cruise lines to run their own sets of safety cruises. Given the amount of time required to call back, get the ships going again, create and test new protocols, that could easily take 6 months. That lines up with when the vaccine is expected to be about halfway through distribution. There is just no reason to deny the industry the opportunity to determine the best way to safety operate.

The only thing they should really be discussing at this point is if the industry should be spending any money to deal with the virus or should they wait it out and see how well the vaccine works. But that should be a decision left to the carriers.

I would be absolutely delighted to be wrong.

 

[brentm77]

I would be absolutely delighted to be wrong.

One other thing at issue is what level of vaccination we need to mostly return to normal life. There is already significant saturation of people who have been exposed to the virus. NYT's ran a story this morning on a study (not yet peer reviewed) saying a high level of immunity will exist for years and maybe up to a decade for most people. That means a percentage of the population likely doesn't need the vaccine. I know many people who have had and recovered from COVID, meaning they are essentially vaccinated now. Re-infections remains statistically insignificant and reinfection would likely be very low-risk and mild, with very rare exceptions.

If high-risk individuals, medical workers, and maybe front line workers got it first, I suspect we will see cases drop to much lower levels. Deaths would fall off a cliff. Add to that some percentage of everyone else, plus natural immunity, and I think we hit a meaningful difference very quickly. I just don't see us needing full saturation before life becomes very low risk to carry on. But I have been continually blinded by optimism during this pandemic, so I am open to the fact that I could be wrong.

 

[brentm77]

Another data point - Utah state officials believe they will have sufficient vaccine to offer it to everyone in Utah by July 2021.

I found this article from The Atlantic hopeful and some positivity I needed today: "The End of the Pandemic Is Now in Sight." I just love the idea of an end to all this, even if it takes many more months.

We made the hard decision today to move our March cruise to March 2022. I am still optimistic Disney will be sailing in March, but I decided I wasn't really interested in a pandemic-themed cruise. I assume there will still be extensive mask wearing, distancing, and other alterations. There was a time when it would have been worth it to me to cruise that way, but we are kind of past that and would rather spend a week at the beach, where things can feel much more normal. We are sneaking in a WDW vacation before then too. I am less concerned about that being altered by pandemic necessity for some reason. Maybe its because Disney cruises are so special to me, and I want it to the the best it can be.

We still have Italy/Greece on DCL in June booked. Whether that will happen very much depends on vaccine distribution and/or seasonality of the virus. I would say there is a shot of it sailing, but not counting on it. I think there is a better chance all cruises are moved to U.S. ports through the summer.

 

[mevelandry]

I understand what you are saying but they were still wrong at that period of time (...)

I kinda disagree with you but ok.

 

[disneylove69]

Even if the WH October rules it ports are still closed. Canada talking about closing the Alaskan cruises down for 2021. Travel i strange companies won't pay for covid and many cou tries require it. It will be quite awhile til it opens. Lots of employers are making people do a 14 day unpaid quarantine

 

[disneylove69]

Another data point - Utah state officials believe they will have sufficient vaccine to offer it to everyone in Utah by July 2021.

I found this article from The Atlantic hopeful and some positivity I needed today: "The End of the Pandemic Is Now in Sight." I just love the idea of an end to all this, even if it takes many more months.

We made the hard decision today to move our March cruise to March 2022. I am still optimistic Disney will be sailing in March, but I decided I wasn't really interested in a pandemic-themed cruise. I assume there will still be extensive mask wearing, distancing, and other alterations. There was a time when it would have been worth it to me to cruise that way, but we are kind of past that and would rather spend a week at the beach, where things can feel much more normal. We are sneaking in a WDW vacation before then too. I am less concerned about that being altered by pandemic necessity for some reason. Maybe its because Disney cruises are so special to me, and I want it to the the best it can be.

We still have Italy/Greece on DCL in June booked. Whether that will happen very much depends on vaccine distribution and/or seasonality of the virus. I would say there is a shot of it sailing, but not counting on it. I think there is a better chance all cruises are moved to U.S. ports through the summer.

US ports won't open anytime soon. Even if vaccine comes out first reponders get it first and then assisted living homes. People that do not fall into a high risk category has an estimate of a year out before available according to Government agencies.

 

[bcwife76]

Even if the WH October rules it ports are still closed. Canada talking about closing the Alaskan cruises down for 2021. Travel i strange companies won't pay for covid and many cou tries require it. It will be quite awhile til it opens. Lots of employers are making people do a 14 day unpaid quarantine

As of right now the Transport Canada ban expires February 28 2021. Will it be extended past that day? Absolutely. Or they could let it expire. For now Alaska is still a go so I think it's too early to speculate on that. I think we will know for sure by end of Feb though!

 

[mevelandry]

Even if the WH October rules it ports are still closed. Canada talking about closing the Alaskan cruises down for 2021. Travel i strange companies won't pay for covid and many cou tries require it. It will be quite awhile til it opens. Lots of employers are making people do a 14 day unpaid quarantine

The vaccine is coming... I’m pretty sure decisions will be made in February. Could go either way.

 

[Starwind]

As of right now the Transport Canada ban expires February 28 2021. Will it be extended past that day? Absolutely. Or they could let it expire. For now Alaska is still a go so I think it's too early to speculate on that. I think we will know for sure by end of Feb though!

Assuming that Canada does lift its ban sometime before the pandemic itself is declared over, I think it will be interesting to see if Canada imposes additional requirements on top of whatever the CDC requirements end up being. I haven't seen any discussion of that, but it will be an important factor for ability to sail through Canadian waters and to/from Canadian ports or with Canadian ports of call.

SW