Plus everyone needs to remember - you will, at 7 months, have competition from any direct owned points for the original 14, both rental/personal use, as they don’t have restrictions.
So this is why the old conversation of buying resale saves all the money and the ONLY thing you lose is the blue card, isn’t going to hold up.
I think people need to look at where they are today. Your resale contract at 60% savings will likely truly reflect the loss of that savings in the future because the value will be just the home resort advantage. That’s more than fine for #1 and some in #2 and #3, depending on objective in owning DVC.
Blue card = Flexibility is what I’ve been chewing over.
What is the value of the continued flexibility of your $$$ spent extra direct, if you are planning to HOLD that contract.
You have to roll up to the downstream impact of personal behaviors/needs when purchasing. To me THIS is the bigger impact of the changes when considering resale/direct, on IF it matter to each buyer.
...snip...
Everyone should buy for how it best works for them. For better or worse, DVC is altering the business model with 2.0 and that does change it in some interesting ways for the younger buyers that has nothing to do with perks.
Or, as I see it - at 7 months, everyone, direct owners included, will have more competition from restricted resale points at the L14 (and eventually, certainly by 2042, more so at RIV and future). Thinking about the behavioral impacts, I can only imagine that more resale owners, even the L14, will book/rent in the 11 month window since they do face restrictions, leaving fewer rooms available at 7 months for everyone. "Buy where you want to stay" becomes more important, then people book their home resorts more, then less available at 7 months, etc.
Direct = the appearance of flexibility - but this restriction does not help the availability issues that affect that flexibility.
I agree it's definitely a new business model now. And with all the changes, and who knows what's to come, I'm not sure how it's going to work, or what DVC's value will be.
To bring this back to the thread topic, at this point I wouldn't necessarily wait for a recession. But I am waiting to see what next year's MFs and
point charts are, and what other restrictions or policies DVC comes up with. And in the meantime, see how the economy's doing as well.
Note that
@dvcsince93 does not include “Disney buybacks” - which I assume are contracts taken in ROFR, meaning the original owner put the contract up for sale, found a willing buyer, agreed to terms, and DVD then stepped in and bought the contract. So I believe that “Disney buybacks” should be included in the numbers of resales. If they are, the number of OKW resales more than doubles: 10K resales + 16K “Disney buybacks.” I asked
@dvcsince93 for clarification but didn’t receive an answer, and I wish someone else would try to reproduce that study.
I remember looking at those numbers a few months ago. I don't want to speak for
@dvcsince93, but I think maybe we were focused on how many restricted resale contracts we could expect with this new restriction. So maybe it is something in the middle of those figures. Possibly an owner keeps a contract 10ish years on average (adding all those OKW resale + buyback/ROFR + foreclosure + gratuitous transfer numbers would seem to support that), but for actual 3rd party resales, the numbers are closer to 1% per year and increasing slightly every year.
I also spent some time looking on the OCC website trying to determine the number of resales myself - and man, it is difficult to figure out! I could find a simple number of resale/ROFR/foreclosure/gratuitous transfer deeds recorded each month. But it would take forever to track if each one was sold by the original owner or a prior resale. Hats off to
@wdrl for all of his invaluable work sharing DVD's sales each month!
