Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[Sandisw]

As I recall from our signing the documents, they pointed out the resale restriction and we may have signed one paper acknowledging it. Granted, some people may not understand the potential effect of the restriction and just assume it’s normal for all contracts.

You are correct. It is smack dab in front of you and we did have to sign an additional document that spelled this out. I also noticed that in the documents, they bolded the information about resale value and that no one should expect it down the road. I do not remember it being like that in the BLT and VGF contracts I bought direct years ago.

So, while guides may not be mentioning it unless asked, you can't buy RIV without knowing that when selling, the contract will sell with restrictions.

 

[skier_pete]

recording dates 2020-02-01 to 2020-02-29

resort	points	% total
AKV	4,120	2.4%
BCV	766	0.4%
BLT	3,208	1.8%
BRV	276	0.2%
BWV	2,221	1.3%
CCV	4,319	2.5%
OKW	5,571	3.2%
PVB	1,953	1.1%
RVA	139,230	79.9%
SSR	10,239	5.9%
VGF	2,288	1.3%
	174,191

I would not consider that a good number. Remember that data lags actual sales by 30-45 days, so this is sales data in the immediate aftermath of the resort opening. (Data probably represents December 25th to January 25th or so.) The fact that sales are down from 2019 with a brand new open resort? Not very good at all.

Of course we all wish COVID-19 didn't happen, but the data going forward beyond March is basically going to be thrown out the window. No way to tell effect of resale restriction anymore.

On the bright side only down 7% year-over-year. But still would argue a 2 year old resort versus a newly opened resort is not a very good sign.

 

[ELMC]

I would not consider that a good number. Remember that data lags actual sales by 30-45 days, so this is sales data in the immediate aftermath of the resort opening. (Data probably represents December 25th to January 25th or so.) The fact that sales are down from 2019 with a brand new open resort? Not very good at all.

Of course we all wish COVID-19 didn't happen, but the data going forward beyond March is basically going to be thrown out the window. No way to tell effect of resale restriction anymore.

On the bright side only down 7% year-over-year. But still would argue a 2 year old resort versus a newly opened resort is not a very good sign.

Agreed re: not being able to determine the causality of slow sales going forward. However, that may be irrelevant. If a recession hits then they're likely to stop building DVC, which means they'll need rooms in inventory for a longer period of time. They've made it very clear that they want this new paradigm that strongly favors direct ownership and for that reason alone I think they will weather any storm they need to and not rescind the restrictions. The fact that there might actually be a silver lining to slower sales is an added bonus.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[ChipNdale8887]

recording dates 2020-03-01 to 2020-03-31

resort	deeds	points	% total
AKV	43​	3,919​	2.1%​
BCV	13​	1,700​	0.9%​
BLT	34​	3,201​	1.7%​
BRV	4​	260​	0.1%​
BWV	22​	1,735​	0.9%​
CCV	60​	8,037​	4.2%​
OKW	54​	5,023​	2.6%​
PVB	21​	2,187​	1.2%​
RVA	950​	153,416​	80.7%​
SSR	95​	8,816​	4.6%​
VGF	20​	1,833​	1.0%​
	1,316​	174,191​

Is that point total at the bottom of this chart correct? 174,191?.... something seems off. Its the exact same total as your chart from 2/1/20 - 2/29/20. Did they really sell the same exact amount of points?

EDIT: It's not right. The Formula must not have updated! Total points sold for March was 190,127‬.

 

[skier_pete]

I have to say that so far these numbers are telling me that Disney is not likely to change their policy. While I wouldn't say the numbers are great, they are decent enough. And new resort sales(@ Riviera) are at 80%, which is a little low but on the lower edge of "normal". I expect April sales to p!summer of course but that is unrelated to Riviera.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[ChipNdale8887]

looks like the average points bought per contract for riviera is 161 in March.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I have to say that so far these numbers are telling me that Disney is not likely to change their policy. While I wouldn't say the numbers are great, they are decent enough. And new resort sales(@ Riviera) are at 80%, which is a little low but on the lower edge of "normal". I expect April sales to p!summer of course but that is unrelated to Riviera.

If resale prices plummet though then the purchase analysis will shift for some. DVC is a nice upfront revenue producer and Disney might look at that more than the long term as they attempt to recover. Lots of unknowns yet to work themselves out.

 

[ELMC]

If resale prices plummet though then the purchase analysis will shift for some. DVC is a nice upfront revenue producer and Disney might look at that more than the long term as they attempt to recover. Lots of unknowns yet to work themselves out.

Agreed. But one thing I'd like to point out is that Chapek is the master of selling things that don't exist. Club Level Fastpasses, Extra Magic Mornings, Disney After Hours, etc. etc. He is a master at monetizing things. I have no doubt there is a whole toolkit of things they can offer direct purchasers that resale can't. Heck, for just one or two anytime fastpasses a day for me and my family I would buy direct over resale. They've got lots of secret weapons that they've likely been holding onto for just such an occasion. My guess is that the big ones will make a direct vs. resale analysis near impossible, and certainly more difficult than simply calculating the discount you get on APs with the blue card.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Agreed. But one thing I'd like to point out is that Chapek is the master of selling things that don't exist. Club Level Fastpasses, Extra Magic Mornings, Disney After Hours, etc. etc. He is a master at monetizing things. I have no doubt there is a whole toolkit of things they can offer direct purchasers that resale can't. Heck, for just one or two anytime fastpasses a day for me and my family I would buy direct over resale. They've got lots of secret weapons that they've likely been holding onto for just such an occasion. My guess is that the big ones will make a direct vs. resale analysis near impossible, and certainly more difficult than simply calculating the discount you get on APs with the blue card.

Maybe free tickets for 1/2 the room occupants until 2030 or so?

 

[Sandisw]

Agreed. But one thing I'd like to point out is that Chapek is the master of selling things that don't exist. Club Level Fastpasses, Extra Magic Mornings, Disney After Hours, etc. etc. He is a master at monetizing things. I have no doubt there is a whole toolkit of things they can offer direct purchasers that resale can't. Heck, for just one or two anytime fastpasses a day for me and my family I would buy direct over resale. They've got lots of secret weapons that they've likely been holding onto for just such an occasion. My guess is that the big ones will make a direct vs. resale analysis near impossible, and certainly more difficult than simply calculating the discount you get on APs with the blue card.

I can definitely see them sweetening the deals for direct purchases vs, changing the product,

 

[EM Lawrence]

This potential sweetening of the deal is why I am holding out on making any purchase decisions, even though I am itching to jump in. (We are not currently owners.) I am firmly convinced that resale is the best option for us at this point. But I have not purchased anything yet, and I‘m waiting to see what will happen before I jump in. I do expect resale prices to slide in the coming year, which means that direct would have to come up with some pretty sweet incentives to become appealing vs discounted resale. I wish I had a crystal ball for lots of reasons right now.

 

[MBTigger]

I am also convinced that resale is best for me, but as a West coaster if the Aulani incentives were brought down to the 100pt level I might be convinced to go a combination of Aulani direct and AKV / BLT resale (Still on the fence about which resort I would prefer. I suspect AKV will win out)

 

[ELMC]

I can definitely see them sweetening the deals for direct purchases vs, changing the product,

Agreed. They've already tried to do that with Moonlight Magic and other blue card restrictions. But what they haven't done is introduce something new that applies only to new purchasers from this point forward. It's a dangerous game, but one that could certainly reap many benefits.

 

[i<3riviera]

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[bookwormde]

wow that came out quick.

Obviously lowest sales month ever for DVC

Looks like about a 20% carryover from march signings so maybe those signed after 3/15?

 

[MBTigger]

What is the lag time between an agreement an a deed being recorded? Will May sales still be be worse even if the sales office opens next week?

Also - 100 pts for a Riv contract seems low for the point chart cost. Unless, of course, one is looking to "Go Blue" (I grew up near Ann Arbor - Some phrases stick with you)

 

[i<3riviera]

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