Restart Theory

Bjn10

Mouseketeer
Joined
May 13, 2020
NOT OFFICIAL INFORMATION

I have a bit of a theory it looks like Disney may only send the Wonder and the Fantasy to the US to start at first. Economically it makes more sense to sail 5 and 7 night sailings over 3/4 night sailings plus less exchange of passengers. I believe they will leave the magic over in Europe and then use the Wonder to cover its sailings out of Miami until the beginning of May when she will then (if allowed) head to Alaska. With the Dream heading back to PC later in the spring when things get more back to normal. This lessens the number of times they would have to recross the ocean just a few thoughts
 


Your theory may have some merit since the Wonder and Fantasy are presently returning to the U.S while the Magic and Dream are still in England and France.
 
Maybe have one in Miami and one in PC? And then slowly bring the Dream and Magic back?
 


Since the CDC has rated cruises as a high threat, cou tries requiring civid test, insurance not covering it im guessing 2022. Articles that that Alaskan cruise are cancelled for 2021. California redicted to shutting borders any day and Governor has said 2021 will be a miracle for ports to open. Disney also said ships wouldnt go until Disney parks opened. Disneyland announced April 1 will be the earliest.
 
Since the CDC has rated cruises as a high threat, cou tries requiring civid test, insurance not covering it im guessing 2022. Articles that that Alaskan cruise are cancelled for 2021. California redicted to shutting borders any day and Governor has said 2021 will be a miracle for ports to open. Disney also said ships wouldnt go until Disney parks opened. Disneyland announced April 1 will be the earliest.

sounds like the Wonder will be stationed in the Bahamas/Caribbean for a while
 
Step 1: Not have Biden shut everything down
Step 2: Not have CDC shut everything down
Step 3: Cancel additional reservations on trips that are not yet down to capacity Disney self imposes
Step 4: Sail

Obviously they will have lots of restrictions, testing, or whatever else they have in place.

I believe they will leave the magic over in Europe

Don't see them sailing in Europe in 2021.
 
Step 1: Not have Biden shut everything down
Step 2: Not have CDC shut everything down
Step 3: Cancel additional reservations on trips that are not yet down to capacity Disney self imposes
Step 4: Sail

Obviously they will have lots of restrictions, testing, or whatever else they have in place.



Don't see them sailing in Europe in 2021.
Truly not trying to be political but if Biden is leaning that way, I hope he would say now before cruise lines sink money into staffing ship, moving ports, booking test cruise, etc.

Wasting money in hiring crews or making modification they won't need once a vaccination is well distributed won't help their financial woes. Any info helps them make educated business decisions for themselves.
 
Truly not trying to be political but if Biden is leaning that way, I hope he would say now before cruise lines sink money into staffing ship, moving ports, booking test cruise, etc.

Personally I think its why Disney already cancelled through end of January. Maybe I am wrong but they don't want to do anything until after Biden and the Dems take over.

Nothing political about it just truth that they ran partly on controlling COVID and letting cruises operate when they could stop them doesn't really line up.

I will say unlike Disney World where the feds have very little control they completely have control when it comes to cruising since you are technically entering the country and they could reject anyone coming to the US via cruise ship method.
 
More importantly, the CDC did not want cruises to resume, but bowed to the pressure from the current administration. My guess is that unless someone was able to submit their plan to the CDC to restart last week, the incoming administration will give the CDC much more latitude to say "no" on January 20th.
 
Don't see them sailing in Europe in 2021.

The American CDC does not have jurisdiction in Europe. In Europe cruises to no where ie closed loop, no ports are allowed. There have been closed loop cruises to Norway and in the Mediterranean. They have been very restricted, low capacity, no DIY ports etc etc

Its very likely that DCL will keep The Magic in Europe until May. The first scheduled European cruise after the transatlantic is a 7 night from Barcelona on May 22. DCL can do all the requirements for the American CDC and then just pick up the European routes. Even if the American CDC is still not allowing cruises in American ports, DCL can sail in Europe.

Regarding the losses, well we know that capacity will be reduced. So even if many American tourists can not travel to Europe, I think DCL will take the hit and just sail with European passengers. The EU has implemented a travel plan which 26 countries have signed up to. This means that European people can travel in Europe.
 
Truly not trying to be political but if Biden is leaning that way, I hope he would say now before cruise lines sink money into staffing ship, moving ports, booking test cruise, etc.

Wasting money in hiring crews or making modification they won't need once a vaccination is well distributed won't help their financial woes. Any info helps them make educated business decisions for themselves.
Since there is a large enough subsection of people that cannot take a vaccine, or wIll not take a vaccine because of religious reasons, and those who heard it causes ED or hair loss....Ugh. And The fact that by March it already had 25 different strands identified. This one is here to stay. But since we have a vaccine and drugs now to treat it the numbers will reduce. And Biden will fight the spread until the death toll reduces to “livable” level. (I smirked at my own comment)
 
I received an email today from Mousesavers that Small World Vacations is pushing 25% off restricted fares for sailings starting April 2nd on the Wonder, Apr 10th on the Fantasy, and Apr 30th on the Dream. Our cruise for Apr 17th on the Fantasy is included on this list. I am hopeful this may lead to a soft target time frame. I realize there are a number of hoops to jump thru, but 3-4 months if all goes well seems promising. I imagine they are chomping at the bit to try and make revenue, and there must be cabins to fill.
 
The American CDC does not have jurisdiction in Europe.

Where did I say they do? I am saying it because Europe has a whole host of headaches that Disney could run in to around restrictions and with passengers coming from various countries of origin more so than US based cruises.

My comments regarding everything else is based on the cruises that I think could occur which is just the US based cruises.

There have been closed loop cruises to Norway and in the Mediterranean.

And what percentage of the cruise passengers is from those countries?

The EU has implemented a travel plan which 26 countries have signed up to. This means that European people can travel in Europe.

Except Europe is much more aggressive with lockdowns than the US has been. So does this plan which they signed up to bypass country law to where they can not restrict anyone entering or leaving the country regardless of where they come from in the 26 country group?

I did not see anything about no restriction travel across Europe or the EU. Simply that there is somewhat of a plan in place which is different than restriction free access to get passengers to the port and disembarked.

Again I am just guessing based on the complexity that could come from this especially in comparison to US where vast majority will be Americans (maybe Canadians/Mexicans) and would not have really any restriction getting to Florida in February timeframe moving forward.
 
Where did I say they do? I am saying it because Europe has a whole host of headaches that Disney could run in to around restrictions and with passengers coming from various countries of origin more so than US based cruises.

My comments regarding everything else is based on the cruises that I think could occur which is just the US based cruises.



And what percentage of the cruise passengers is from those countries?



Except Europe is much more aggressive with lockdowns than the US has been. So does this plan which they signed up to bypass country law to where they can not restrict anyone entering or leaving the country regardless of where they come from in the 26 country group?

I did not see anything about no restriction travel across Europe or the EU. Simply that there is somewhat of a plan in place which is different than restriction free access to get passengers to the port and disembarked.

Again I am just guessing based on the complexity that could come from this especially in comparison to US where vast majority will be Americans (maybe Canadians/Mexicans) and would not have really any restriction getting to Florida in February timeframe moving forward.


Canadians won't be in Florida in February. The border won't reopen with the US for many more months and our quarantine act will still be in place. We'll be lucky if we can get to Florida by June.
 
Where did I say they do? I am saying it because Europe has a whole host of headaches that Disney could run in to around restrictions and with passengers coming from various countries of origin more so than US based cruises.

My comments regarding everything else is based on the cruises that I think could occur which is just the US based cruises.



And what percentage of the cruise passengers is from those countries?



Except Europe is much more aggressive with lockdowns than the US has been. So does this plan which they signed up to bypass country law to where they can not restrict anyone entering or leaving the country regardless of where they come from in the 26 country group?

I did not see anything about no restriction travel across Europe or the EU. Simply that there is somewhat of a plan in place which is different than restriction free access to get passengers to the port and disembarked.

Again I am just guessing based on the complexity that could come from this especially in comparison to US where vast majority will be Americans (maybe Canadians/Mexicans) and would not have really any restriction getting to Florida in February timeframe moving forward.

Please read this thread which I am updating on a weekly basis https://www.disboards.com/threads/e...ean-2021-cruises-updated-26-november.3818455/
 

Nothing in that states any nation really has to do anything. Simply that they should consider the information.

"Member States will take the following key criteria into account when considering to restrict free movement in response to the coronavirus pandemic:"

The only thing truly agreed upon from everything I came across is countries that have little COVID impact are guaranteed no travel restrictions (marked green on the map).

Will we see another spike of COVID in a couple months time as Europe eases all their most recent restrictions? Time will tell.

Am I missing something where there will not be restrictions at all throughout Europe? Its all the varying responses which is my point of possibly causing issues and a headache Disney decides to just skip (they don't want to be in the news for being rejected at port or the origination being locked down).

Its fine if you want to think Europe will be back to normal by Spring I just don't think it will be. Only reason I see US cruising next year is because its all 12 months and the US is going to continue to be more relaxed likely with policies.
 

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