Resale Price Patterns?

[DisneynBison]

I also remember a crap world economy and 10% unemployment at that time. Coming off a stock market that had crashed and lots of people wondering if there job was safe. Most luxury items tanked in price and a lot of those companies went under. Not just DVC but lots of vacation properties from condos to houses tanked. There was a reason for those low prices.

 

[ELMC]

Completely agree.... the prices no longer fit the value proposition (imo). I remember 2011, when ppl were trying to get rid of their DVC— when SSR was around $35, BWV at $55, Blt at $85, and AKL around $65. And I think these were average prices, so ppl were able to catch contracts at much lower....

I also remember a crap world economy and 10% unemployment at that time. Coming off a stock market that had crashed and lots of people wondering if there job was safe. Most luxury items tanked in price and a lot of those companies went under. Not just DVC but lots of vacation properties from condos to houses tanked. There was a reason for those low prices.

Two excellent points perfectly juxtaposed to illustrate two extreme ends of the DVC spectrum. I think that the prices in 2012 were too low and that created a lot of opportunity for those willing to buy. I think the prices today are too high and have completely stripped the value or opportunity out of owning DVC. It's still a good product and is attractive by design, but it used to be attractive by design AND by price.

 

[CarolMN]

It's also worth noting that while historically DVC direct prices have always gone up, they have found sneaky ways to actually reduce them in times of need by adding in cash, free cruise, or other incentives that have actually brought the sales price down while making it look like they have an ironclad product.

Agree. To date, Disney has not ever reduced the list price for DVC. Incentives, OTOH, have come and gone - their value depends on what Disney thinks it needs to do to reach its sales goals.

 

[Ben E N]

Agree. To date, Disney has not ever reduced the list price for DVC. Incentives, OTOH, have come and gone - their value depends on what Disney thinks it needs to do to reach its sales goals.

With the one odd exception of Vero just now. We may see more reductions coming in old properties because Disney needs to keep ROFRing them to keep the whole market from collapsing (why buy Copper Creek for $182 when you can get Vero for $30? Even with higher MFs, a point is a point at 7 months). They need Vero to stay at a certain bottom level, so they have to prop that market up, meaning they are stuck with points. With them actively trying to sell new resorts, it wouldn't make sense to add incentives to buy old ones, so now for the first time they are forced to reduce the price of them in order to clear out inventory.

 

[ELMC]

With the one odd exception of Vero just now. We may see more reductions coming in old properties because Disney needs to keep ROFRing them to keep the whole market from collapsing (why buy Copper Creek for $182 when you can get Vero for $30? Even with higher MFs, a point is a point at 7 months). They need Vero to stay at a certain bottom level, so they have to prop that market up, meaning they are stuck with points. With them actively trying to sell new resorts, it wouldn't make sense to add incentives to buy old ones, so now for the first time they are forced to reduce the price of them in order to clear out inventory.

Keep in mind that only a small percentage of DVC buyers ever find their way to these boards. So while we correctly ask the question "Why buy Copper Creek for $182 when you can get Vero for $30?", most people don't know Vero is $30; don't know that there are other resorts you can buy other than what is currently being offered by Disney; don't know about the resale market; and haven't really done the math or asked if there is a better alternative.

 

[mustinjourney]

Keep in mind that only a small percentage of DVC buyers ever find their way to these boards. So while we correctly ask the question "Why buy Copper Creek for $182 when you can get Vero for $30?", most people don't know Vero is $30; don't know that there are other resorts you can buy other than what is currently being offered by Disney; don't know about the resale market; and haven't really done the math or asked if there is a better alternative.

no kidding about most people being uninformed. I had a buddy that has been looking at buying DVC for well over 2 years. He also has in-laws that own at BLT. Even with all of that, he made an unnecessary error by getting the UY they just gave him.

On monday, I get a text telling me he finally pulled the trigger and got 200 points at CCV. I obviously congratulated him and then asked what his UY was, as well as when he foresaw his trips. He said he plans to go in summer or winter break and he got a FEB UY.

I mentioned that a DEC UY would work well for his travel -- AND it would give him 200 extra points this year. Luckily, he was able to change his UY since he had just done everything the day before -- but I shudder to think how many people leave points on the table.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Keep in mind that only a small percentage of DVC buyers ever find their way to these boards. So while we correctly ask the question "Why buy Copper Creek for $182 when you can get Vero for $30?", most people don't know Vero is $30; don't know that there are other resorts you can buy other than what is currently being offered by Disney; don't know about the resale market; and haven't really done the math or asked if there is a better alternative.

I have some relatives who are VERY Disney savvy. They live in Florida, go to DW about 5 to 8 times a year and are long time Annual Passholders. Now, they are about to buy into Copper Creek as their first DVC property. And they are going to get a good chunk of points. I have shown them the resale market and talked about buying AKL or BLT on resale. They considered those, but decided to go with CC Direct. They were NOT at all interested in SSR or OKW or Vero Beach or Hilton Head, for five reasons:
1. They didn't view them as properties they would prefer to use.
2. They like the idea of booking a desirable resort at 7 to 11 months out.
3. They want the incidental benefits.
4. They didn't like the fact that all of those much cheaper properties pretty much will expire in 24 years, while Copper Creek has 50 years to run. 50 years makes it twice as valuable as those properties, and the Disney Direct price on Copper Creek is less than double the price on all of those, even on the secondary market, with the exception of Vero Beach. (By the way, Vero Beach isn't $30. It is currently $60 to $70 on the resale market.)
And, 5, they LOVED the Wilderness Lodge.

So, they are making a decision that works for them, and are going with CC Direct from Disney.

I personally have 6 contracts currently and am working on two more. Some of mine have been Direct and some of mine have been from Resales. But my first purchase was 325 points Direct from Disney in Polynesian, and that was after I had studied the resale market for over a year.

There will still, always, be plenty of people who will purchase Direct from Disney, when they purchase.

 

[ELMC]

I have some relatives who are VERY Disney savvy. They live in Florida, go to DW about 5 to 8 times a year and are long time Annual Passholders. Now, they are about to buy into Copper Creek as their first DVC property. And they are going to get a good chunk of points. I have shown them the resale market and talked about buying AKL or BLT on resale. They considered those, but decided to go with CC Direct. They were NOT at all interested in SSR or OKW or Vero Beach or Hilton Head, for five reasons:
1. They didn't view them as properties they would prefer to use.
2. They like the idea of booking a desirable resort at 7 to 11 months out.
3. They want the incidental benefits.
4. They didn't like the fact that all of those much cheaper properties pretty much will expire in 24 years, while Copper Creek has 50 years to run. 50 years makes it twice as valuable as those properties, and the Disney Direct price on Copper Creek is less than double the price on all of those, even on the secondary market, with the exception of Vero Beach. (By the way, Vero Beach isn't $30. It is currently $60 to $70 on the resale market.)
And, 5, they LOVED the Wilderness Lodge.

So, they are making a decision that works for them, and are going with CC Direct from Disney.

I personally have 6 contracts currently and am working on two more. Some of mine have been Direct and some of mine have been from Resales. But my first purchase was 325 points Direct from Disney in Polynesian, and that was after I had studied the resale market for over a year.

There will still, always, be plenty of people who will purchase Direct from Disney, when they purchase.

I was afraid something like this might happen and I should have been more clear in my original post. It sounds like both you and your relatives made a very INFORMED decision. Direct vs. resale is a personal decision and I have a long history on these boards of saying that and not criticizing people for making the decision that they felt was best for them. The point I was trying to make (although maybe not as clearly as I would have liked) is that for many, many people, the only decision they make is to buy or not to buy. None of the factors that you mentioned above ever come into question. I stand by that point and I'll try to say it a little better. Not everyone who buys direct is uninformed, but I would say that the majority of people who buy direct do not have access to the information and ideas discussed on these boards.

As for your direct Poly purchase...that's looking pretty good right about now with the current state of direct prices and the fact that you could sell it at any time on the resale market and be made whole. I almost did the same thing with VGF when they first came out and I wish that I had.

 

[Ben E N]

I was afraid something like this might happen and I should have been more clear in my original post. It sounds like both you and your relatives made a very INFORMED decision. Direct vs. resale is a personal decision and I have a long history on these boards of saying that and not criticizing people for making the decision that they felt was best for them. The point I was trying to make (although maybe not as clearly as I would have liked) is that for many, many people, the only decision they make is to buy or not to buy. None of the factors that you mentioned above ever come into question. I stand by that point and I'll try to say it a little better. Not everyone who buys direct is uninformed, but I would say that the majority of people who buy direct do not have access to the information and ideas discussed on these boards.

As for your direct Poly purchase...that's looking pretty good right about now with the current state of direct prices and the fact that you could sell it at any time on the resale market and be made whole. I almost did the same thing with VGF when they first came out and I wish that I had.

I think what you were trying to say is not that everybody who buys direct is uninformed, but that everyone who buys while being uniformed buys only direct, missing out on a potential situation that may be better for them.

 

[Frederic Civish]

As for your direct Poly purchase...that's looking pretty good right about now with the current state of direct prices and the fact that you could sell it at any time on the resale market and be made whole. I almost did the same thing with VGF when they first came out and I wish that I had.

I'm very happy at the moment, with my Poly purchase, but, of course, the rise in price was not something that anyone could predict. I think it has more to do with preparations for the Riviera than anything else. They were probably worried about the response they would get if they just started Riviera off at $200 or more, but if they can point to VGF and Poly (which they ARE NOT selling), then it will look like a real deal in the $200 to $220 range.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Some people are predicting Riviera will come in around $190 to $195. I have been saying higher, but the slightly lower price is also quite possible. But, notice that it WOULD be higher than CC is currently.

Would they raise CC at the same time, to make them more 'equal?'

If they start Riviera off at this price, then (depending on the economy of course) do you think they would boost it over $200 once CC sells out in approx 2020?

 

[Ben E N]

Some people are predicting Riviera will come in around $190 to $195. I have been saying higher, but the slightly lower price is also quite possible. But, notice that it WOULD be higher than CC is currently.

Would they raise CC at the same time, to make them more 'equal?'

If they start Riviera off at this price, then (depending on the economy of course) do you think they would boost it over $200 once CC sells out in approx 2020?

Not necessarily. CCV came out at $182 while Poly was still selling for $176, if my memory serves me correctly. They can also release Riviera at something like $215 a point, but include a $3000 credit if you buy 100 points or something in order to encourage more sales there, while bringing the actual sales price down to the same as or less than CCV.

 

[disneynutz]

When buying direct I suggest that you buy smaller contracts, easier to sell down the road or you may want to sell one and keep another to make room for a new resort contract.

Bill

 

[hlhlaw07]

Not necessarily. CCV came out at $182 while Poly was still selling for $176, if my memory serves me correctly. They can also release Riviera at something like $215 a point, but include a $3000 credit if you buy 100 points or something in order to encourage more sales there, while bringing the actual sales price down to the same as or less than CCV.

CCV was $176. It went up to $182 with the most recent price increase.

 

[Ben E N]

CCV was $176. It went up to $182 with the most recent price increase.

Good catch. I was just doing that from a slightly off memory. Poly was $171 but they did raise the price to $176, matching CCV, when it came out. They did offer incentives on both. So my best guess would be if CCV continues selling well, but doesn't sell out, we will see both it and BLT rise up to whatever they want to sell Rivera for, probably $202 a point or so, but will offer bulk-purchase based incentives for at least Rivera, and maybe CCV if they want to finish it off.