Resale Price Patterns?

I am waiting till the end of the year, maybe January to purchase for two reasons. First, that's when I will have the cash on hand:rolleyes: and second from what I've read, there will be more availability and possibly better buys then.

There were certainly better deals this past Nov/Dec -- but I don't know if that is a seasonal thing or if it just happened this past year.
 
For timeshares generally--not just DVC--prices dip in the 4th quarter, and peak late 2nd/early 3rd.
I know that the prices for a small contract will probably not dip too much, for the most part, but I believe the availability of them will definitely increase.
 
There is a 50 point contract at Hilton Head for like $63 a point I believe. Been there a few weeks. If i had the money now, I would probably make an an offer of $60 a point.

Well, off to sell my kid!:teeth:
 


Especially with Fidelity, if you are actively looking to purchase get on the email list. We are in contract with an owner who listed 4 contracts at once with Fidelity. Two were smaller and to my knowledge were never even advertised - I assume Fidelity had a "waitlist" of buyers that had specified what they were looking for. We offered on one of the two larger contracts the day after the email came out. Talking with the agent after our offer was accepted I learned that we had taken the last of the 4 - they went that quickly. This was 3 weeks ago. None of the four appear on Fidelity's website as of now even as "pending".
This is exactly how I got my contract as well. Mine is also not on the website at all, not sure if it will be. I'm curious about ROFR in general with Fidelity. Did you pass yet? Thanks!
 
I don't have a history of things but I watch the prices like a hawk. I found most resale companies fall in line in pricing usually. There are always crazy outliers that are over priced. When there are less listings priced rise. Supply and demand. I made multiple bids on contracts that I felt was an actual fair market value and I never heard from them.

What we did is signed up for the email listings (all of them) and found that Fidelity had prices significantly lower than all the others. They are priced to move fast. They are a little higher in closing costs but I found it to be cheaper overall. We were assigned a broker who emailed us personally about a contract and ended up getting it for asking price with the seller paying our closing costs, and it passed rofr. I would hands down use them again.

Like I said though, they move fast and you need to call within minutes of the email going out with an offer to ensure it doesn't get snatched up.

Good luck!
Would you mind telling me how long it took you to get notification that you passed ROFR? I have a contract with them currently and I'm sweating the passing ROFR.
 
Would you mind telling me how long it took you to get notification that you passed ROFR? I have a contract with them currently and I'm sweating the passing ROFR.
Our ROFR timeline is sent on 4/20 and we received word 5/9. Keep an eye on the ROFR thread. That is where you will get a good sense of where you stand. I still watch it. It comes across like Disney does it in batches. Because while I was waiting the week before we heard that we passed the thread was quiet. Then when I heard I posted and by the end of the day many others did too. Then it went quiet, and all of a sudden another batch of people heard (they had shorter wait times than I did). It's a great community too!

Also, if you went through fidelity there is nothing wrong with emailing your broker and asking. Ours was fantastic and emailed us the second she heard.
 


This is exactly how I got my contract as well. Mine is also not on the website at all, not sure if it will be. I'm curious about ROFR in general with Fidelity. Did you pass yet? Thanks!
Yes. Bonnie and others at Fidelity have been great with communication. We had an offer/agreement Thursday Apr 27, sent to ROFR Tuesday May 2, passed May 16tb all info by email.
 
Yes. Bonnie and others at Fidelity have been great with communication. We had an offer/agreement Thursday Apr 27, sent to ROFR Tuesday May 2, passed May 16tb all info by email.
Bonnie is also the one I'm working with. Absolutely adore her!!
 
I paid about $8 more per point then I really wanted to, but looking about there are very few contracts out there and I happened to luck onto one that was the exact amount of points I wanted, with the right resort and the right UY. couldn't let that pass by.
 
To be honest, 320 point contracts don't sell well. You should have a great deal of latitude on negotiations. I would say, do your homework well. Look at past ROFR threads for about what that size contract at your resort usually sells for. That's a good start.

Decide if you are going to reimburse seller for any points left on the contract and if you are going to pay closing or you want the seller to pay closing. Personally, I say it's fair to reimburse the seller for unused current year points but I wouldn't be big on reimbursing banked points. Afterall, if you can't use them you won't be able to bank them again. But all of it is negotiable.

Remember, currently, it is a sellers market. There are not a great deal of contracts out there so sellers know that you won't have a lot of alternatives.

Also, be careful not to negotiate yourself such a great deal that Disney snatches it out from under you.
 
Just an FYI, contract can NOT be split, so that 320 pointer will have to stay as 1 320 point. Could be a problem later on if you realize your patterns change and you have too many or if you want to leave them to children.
 
The prices for resale are going up and will continue to go up. Someone said, "If you see a price for ANYTHING at Disney, whether it is food, tickets or lodging, then BUY IT, because that is the lowest price you will see for the rest of you life. It WILL only go up from there." (DVC resale might go up or down a bit, but the general trend will still, always be up, because that is how Disney does things.)

First of all, Disney is pulling prices up by taking so many contracts off the lower end, with ROFR.

Second, Disney raised the bar when they raised their prices for DVC, and most especially the 3 highest priced properties. The effect of that is still percolating down through the system, and it continues to pull all prices for resale up.

I read an article that said Disney had raised their prices this year, in order to prepare for even higher prices in the future, and they said that it was a gamble on the part of Disney. Too much of a price increase (which a lot of people think applies to Grand Californian, VGF, and Poly) and you drive away your customers. Not enough and you leave money on the table. The article felt that Disney was gambling with their high prices, because if the economy turned down, things would crash, and Disney WILL NOT want to lower them. I actually think the article was wrong. I don't think Disney is gambling at all. By raising the top 3 properties so much, they essentially shut off their market in those properties, but there wasn't that much of a market for them anyway. Meanwhile Disney has continued to be active and healthy in the Resale market, and those lower end properties are priced low enough that they will continue to sell, even if there is an economic downturn, especially because they are 'such a deal' compared to the higher properties.

Anyway, the point of all of this is, that for at least the near future, the price trend should be up, in general, so waiting to buy will probably be a mistake.
 
If you want to know whether a resale price is reasonable or not, there are places on the net where they keep track of current, average prices. Just look for them.
 
The prices for resale are going up and will continue to go up. Someone said, "If you see a price for ANYTHING at Disney, whether it is food, tickets or lodging, then BUY IT, because that is the lowest price you will see for the rest of you life. It WILL only go up from there." (DVC resale might go up or down a bit, but the general trend will still, always be up, because that is how Disney does things.)

First of all, Disney is pulling prices up by taking so many contracts off the lower end, with ROFR.

Second, Disney raised the bar when they raised their prices for DVC, and most especially the 3 highest priced properties. The effect of that is still percolating down through the system, and it continues to pull all prices for resale up.

I read an article that said Disney had raised their prices this year, in order to prepare for even higher prices in the future, and they said that it was a gamble on the part of Disney. Too much of a price increase (which a lot of people think applies to Grand Californian, VGF, and Poly) and you drive away your customers. Not enough and you leave money on the table. The article felt that Disney was gambling with their high prices, because if the economy turned down, things would crash, and Disney WILL NOT want to lower them. I actually think the article was wrong. I don't think Disney is gambling at all. By raising the top 3 properties so much, they essentially shut off their market in those properties, but there wasn't that much of a market for them anyway. Meanwhile Disney has continued to be active and healthy in the Resale market, and those lower end properties are priced low enough that they will continue to sell, even if there is an economic downturn, especially because they are 'such a deal' compared to the higher properties.

Anyway, the point of all of this is, that for at least the near future, the price trend should be up, in general, so waiting to buy will probably be a mistake.

While there certainly is truth to the idea that everything, especially everything Disney, gets more expensive over time, they only have so much control over the resale market. As was discussed in the 'Recession' thread, if the economy collapses, Disney will have less working capital. They won't be able to ROFR as much. Many owners would find themselves in financial stress and would be motivated to sell. We would see an overall dip in prices. Not down to $40 a point for BLT, but something along the lines of $110 a point wouldn't shock me if the economy dipped enough.
As for this thread, it's impossible to tell when the economy will dip, and how bad that dip will be, so there really is no incentive to hold out unless money is tight. It does not appear that prices are falling into any yearly cycle, other than just getting more expensive, over the past year.
 
The prices for resale are going up and will continue to go up. Someone said, "If you see a price for ANYTHING at Disney, whether it is food, tickets or lodging, then BUY IT, because that is the lowest price you will see for the rest of you life. It WILL only go up from there." (DVC resale might go up or down a bit, but the general trend will still, always be up, because that is how Disney does things.)

First of all, Disney is pulling prices up by taking so many contracts off the lower end, with ROFR.

Second, Disney raised the bar when they raised their prices for DVC, and most especially the 3 highest priced properties. The effect of that is still percolating down through the system, and it continues to pull all prices for resale up.

I read an article that said Disney had raised their prices this year, in order to prepare for even higher prices in the future, and they said that it was a gamble on the part of Disney. Too much of a price increase (which a lot of people think applies to Grand Californian, VGF, and Poly) and you drive away your customers. Not enough and you leave money on the table. The article felt that Disney was gambling with their high prices, because if the economy turned down, things would crash, and Disney WILL NOT want to lower them. I actually think the article was wrong. I don't think Disney is gambling at all. By raising the top 3 properties so much, they essentially shut off their market in those properties, but there wasn't that much of a market for them anyway. Meanwhile Disney has continued to be active and healthy in the Resale market, and those lower end properties are priced low enough that they will continue to sell, even if there is an economic downturn, especially because they are 'such a deal' compared to the higher properties.

Anyway, the point of all of this is, that for at least the near future, the price trend should be up, in general, so waiting to buy will probably be a mistake.
I have been active in the DVC resale market since 2012 and I can say that I would not feel comfortable taking the position that resale prices are only going to go up in the future. Historically there have been wild fluctuations in resale prices and the DVC resale market is strongly tied to the economy overall and to any restrictions Disney decides to place on resale points. Both factors have a significant negative impact on resale prices.

Disney direct prices have far surpassed the point where they are any kind of value proposition. Buying DVC direct is an emotional decision rather than a financial one now more than ever. At some point in time more and more people are going to realize this, and then the market is almost certain to adjust. While I'm not going to say that resale prices have hit their peak, I do feel comfortable saying that resale prices are absolutely on a bubble. And there are two things we know about bubbles...they grow bigger, and they burst.
 
I have been active in the DVC resale market since 2012 and I can say that I would not feel comfortable taking the position that resale prices are only going to go up in the future. Historically there have been wild fluctuations in resale prices and the DVC resale market is strongly tied to the economy overall and to any restrictions Disney decides to place on resale points. Both factors have a significant negative impact on resale prices.

Disney direct prices have far surpassed the point where they are any kind of value proposition. Buying DVC direct is an emotional decision rather than a financial one now more than ever. At some point in time more and more people are going to realize this, and then the market is almost certain to adjust. While I'm not going to say that resale prices have hit their peak, I do feel comfortable saying that resale prices are absolutely on a bubble. And there are two things we know about bubbles...they grow bigger, and they burst.

It's also worth noting that while historically DVC direct prices have always gone up, they have found sneaky ways to actually reduce them in times of need by adding in cash, free cruise, or other incentives that have actually brought the sales price down while making it look like they have an ironclad product.
 
I have been active in the DVC resale market since 2012 and I can say that I would not feel comfortable taking the position that resale prices are only going to go up in the future. Historically there have been wild fluctuations in resale prices and the DVC resale market is strongly tied to the economy overall and to any restrictions Disney decides to place on resale points. Both factors have a significant negative impact on resale prices.

Disney direct prices have far surpassed the point where they are any kind of value proposition. Buying DVC direct is an emotional decision rather than a financial one now more than ever. At some point in time more and more people are going to realize this, and then the market is almost certain to adjust. While I'm not going to say that resale prices have hit their peak, I do feel comfortable saying that resale prices are absolutely on a bubble. And there are two things we know about bubbles...they grow bigger, and they burst.

Completely agree.... the prices no longer fit the value proposition (imo). I remember 2011, when ppl were trying to get rid of their DVC— when SSR was around $35, BWV at $55, Blt at $85, and AKL around $65. And I think these were average prices, so ppl were able to catch contracts at much lower....
 

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