Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios, 1-BD & 2-BD charts (September 2019 2-BD added!)

[CarolynFH]

Thank you Pete and Bing! Very helpful! However....

2019 Update for 2-bedrooms: Boardwalk is the only full resort that has ZERO dedicated two bedrooms - therefore the 2-bedrooms are all lock-offs and for lock-offs, just use the studio charts.

Do you think that because there are also dedicated studios, and the dedicated are reserved first by the system before the lock-offs, 2-BR availability might be a tiny bit better than studio availability? (Hoping to get two standard view 2-BR for a big family trip in March 2021, so I need "cooperation" from the 2021 points charts and pixie dust for availability!)

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

Thanks!

 

[Bing Showei]

Thank you Pete and Bing! Very helpful! However....



Do you think that because there are also dedicated studios, and the dedicated are reserved first by the system before the lock-offs, 2-BR availability might be a tiny bit better than studio availability? (Hoping to get two standard view 2-BR for a big family trip in March 2021, so I need "cooperation" from the 2021 points charts and pixie dust for availability!)

We are observing availability on a category level, not on a unit level (as we have no way to measure that given that Disney does not differentiate availability between the configuration types - dedicated vs. lockoff studios). So in that way, it's binary. There is either a studio available to book on a day or it's not. We don't assign a numerical value to the percentage of units available, only that there is at least one on a given day.

It's likely safe to assume that dedicated studios are assigned first. If that were not the case, which wouldn't make sense, 2BR would actually have worse availability than studios. So in that way, studio availability presents the best case scenario for 2BRs, as you can assume if a studio exists, it's a lockoff, and as such, a 2BR also exists to book.

In any given two-week period, we will observe the number of days that have at least one unit type available and determine whether that two-week period is open (all days available), mostly (8-13 days available), spotty (3-7 days available), or none(<3 days available).

 

[skier_pete]

Thank you Pete and Bing! Very helpful! However....



Do you think that because there are also dedicated studios, and the dedicated are reserved first by the system before the lock-offs, 2-BR availability might be a tiny bit better than studio availability? (Hoping to get two standard view 2-BR for a big family trip in March 2021, so I need "cooperation" from the 2021 points charts and pixie dust for availability!)

No - the reason we don't track lock-offs is that if you look at the studio patterns and the lock-off 2-bedroom patterns they track exactly the same. I agree with @Bing Showei that they likely assign all the dedicated studios first, but they also clearly do not hold any lock-offs as 2-bedrooms. So for Boardwalk - you better expect that the studio pattern is a case of what you see is what you get.

 

[CarolynFH]

We are observing availability on a category level, not on a unit level (as we have no way to measure that given that Disney does not differentiate availability between the configuration types - dedicated vs. lockoff studios). So in that way, it's binary. There is either a studio available to book on a day or it's not. We don't assign a numerical value to the percentage of units available, only that there is at least one on a given day.

It's likely safe to assume that dedicated studios are assigned first. If that were not the case, which wouldn't make sense, 2BR would actually have worse availability than studios. So in that way, studio availability presents the best case scenario for 2BRs, as you can assume if a studio exists, it's a lockoff, and as such, a 2BR also exists to book.

In any given two-week period, we will observe the number of days that have at least one unit type available and determine whether that two-week period is open (all days available), mostly (8-13 days available), spotty (3-7 days available), or none(<3 days available).

No - the reason we don't track lock-offs is that if you look at the studio patterns and the lock-off 2-bedroom patterns they track exactly the same. I agree with @Bing Showei that they likely assign all the dedicated studios first, but they also clearly do not hold any lock-offs as 2-bedrooms. So for Boardwalk - you better expect that the studio pattern is a case of what you see is what you get.

Thank you both for your work on this project - it's invaluable! It also inspires hope, especially when planning reservations that will require every bit of my 11-month booking advantage!

 

[pangyal]

Thank you to both of you SO MUCH for your incredibly hard work on this and the time you invested in it! The updates are so helpful.

 

[Disneykate605]

Thanks for all your hard work! Definitely love the 2-br additions!

 

[CaliAdventurer]

SkierPete=MVP

 

[Mumof4mice]

Thank you so much for sharing your work @skier_pete and @Bing Showei !

Looks like I'd better add a small AKV if we want to reliably book there...

 

[TheMick424]

Thank you so much, @skier_pete and @Bing Showei! So helpful.

I think this post is very astute:

2019 Update for 2-bedrooms: Interestingly, SSR charts are the ONLY charts that show a significantly higher availability of 2-bedroom dedicated units than 1-bedroom units, though both are by far the most available rooms in all of DVC. It makes me think more that DVC doesn't as much have a studio problem as it has a SSR problem. A massive resort that people only use for last resort. This is too bad as it hurts all the owners (except SSR owners of course). Anyways, for lock-offs, use the studio charts.

 

[10CJ]

Love the 2 bedroom update, very helpful!

 

[skier_pete]

I appreciate the kind words - but please share them with @Bing Showei as well. He was the one that got me to even do the 2-bedroom units, and he actually took on > 50%, so without him there likely wouldn't be two bedroom charts.

 

[TexasChick123]

Thanks @Bing Showei and @skier_pete! We all appreciate all the hard work and data collection.

 

[emchen]

<snip>It makes me think more that DVC doesn't as much have a studio problem as it has a SSR problem. A massive resort that people only use for last resort. This is too bad as it hurts all the owners (except SSR owners of course).<snip>

You know what might go a long way to mitigate or alleviate that problem? ...putting it on the Skyliner Network!

Oh yeah, love the 2-BR data update @Bing Showei and @skier_pete! Keep up the great work and analyses!

 

[kboo]

Thank you guys! (@Bing Showei and @skier_pete)

This is super helpful and timely as we are looking at doing our first big 2-family extravaganza in a 2-br next summer. I'll be booking at 11mo later this week! :O

Thank you so much for sharing your work @skier_pete and @Bing Showei !

Looks like I'd better add a small AKV if we want to reliably book there...

Step away from the resale sites ... step away ...

 

[heapmaster]

I have a question, I assume you are just using the RAT tool in your browser to see which days are available (in blue) in a specific resort/room/category/type right?

 

[heapmaster]

Nevermind, you answered this on the first post, you do manually use the RAT

 

[skier_pete]

Nevermind, you answered this on the first post, you do manually use the RAT

yes, we do it all manually.

 

[SG131]

@skier_pete do you know much about CCV availability for 2 bedroom units? I know studios are impossible, but I’m looking to add on some points for extended family trips and I do love wilderness lodge.

 

[skier_pete]

@skier_pete do you know much about CCV availability for 2 bedroom units? I know studios are impossible, but I’m looking to add on some points for extended family trips and I do love wilderness lodge.

No.Unfortunately the charts can't be prepped until a resort is sold out. We are starting on CCV now but to early to tell much.