Poll: Your Riviera Resale price

[Minniesgal]

People will happily pay $16+ to get the points in a one time transfer yet you wouldn’t pay $10 to have 50 years of that. Not well thought out.

Not if you have no flexibility in booking dates as the resort has so many resale owners who can't book anywhere else. Well enough thought out restrictions make these points a no go.

 

[Soap_1984]

Also not everyone wants to rent out their points. while I am an advocate for buying in the most financially responsible way possible, I wouldn't buy just because I can rent points out and make a few bucks a point a year. I am not going to pay a much higher price to buy at a resort I don't want just because I may be able to rent the points out and make a few dollars. Also that statement would apply to any resort I don't want to stay at the majority of the time.

 

[RivShore]

Let's not forget the RIV resale community should be relatively small for many years. I think it's generally accepted that less than 20% of the L14 owners are resale and the resorts have been around for 20 years. If just 1% a year turns over at RIV, how does that immediately cause an 11 month booking disaster?

 

[anomamatt]

Will you be able to get $16 a point when all the prime times are booked up at 11 months out because resale buyers can only book Riviera?

do you expect riviera to have more resale owners than the other resorts? The recent analysis was that ~10% of the 2042 resorts are resale owners. That won’t significantly impact 11 month booking.

 

[Madame]

do you expect riviera to have more resale owners than the other resorts? The recent analysis was that ~10% of the 2042 resorts are resale owners. That won’t significantly impact 11 month booking.

Maybe not, but the L14 resalers can trade

 

[RivShore]

Maybe not, but the L14 resalers can trade

So how does that effect the 11 month booking? All this (so far) unfounded doom and gloom around Riviera is getting exhausting!

 

[Brianstl]

How many declared points do the original 14 resorts have total?

 

[Madame]

So how does that effect the 11 month booking? All this (so far) unfounded doom and gloom around Riviera is getting exhausting!

Then stop reading the posts Reread what I was responding to. Who knows how competitive the 11 month window will get, especially for fall in standard studios, and the resale members can’t book elsewhere = walking.

 

[EYL]

So how does that effect the 11 month booking? All this (so far) unfounded doom and gloom around Riviera is getting exhausting!

I don't think it'll affect the 11 month booking. Supply and demand should be the same as any other home resort. I think it'll affect flexibility after that. If something came up after and you'd like to change dates. Direct owners and resale owners have very different options. Direct owners can switch out, but resale owners must stay in. So as a direct owner, you may have no rooms at the Riviera to switch to because the resale owners have to stay put, but at least you have options at the L14. If you were a resale owner, you're stuck, and if you can't find a room, you may lose your points. Of course, this all depends on how many resale owners there will be. Hard to predict, though. Only time will tell.

 

[anomamatt]

Then stop reading the posts Reread what I was responding to. Who knows how competitive the 11 month window will get, especially for fall in standard studios, and the resale members can’t book elsewhere = walking.

I understand and agree with the point you are making. But unless the resale to direct ratios change for riviera, I don’t think it will make a significant impact. Maybe a small one with 10% of owners locked into Riviera, but it won’t be pandemonium.

 

[emchen]

<snip>Of course, this all depends on how many resale owners there will be. Hard to predict, though.<snip>

Not hard to predict, barely an inconvenience. Just look back at VGF sales and resales history thanks to @dvcsince93:

<snip>The first resale of VGF was in October 2013 but the 101st resale wasn't until April 2015. So the resale market of resorts that "sell out" in about 2 years may not kick into gear until a lot of the direct sales are done, Thus, it is hard to draw short term conclusions about what will happen with DRR.<snip>

<snip>In trying to better understand resale, I took a look at the numbers for VGF. Since all the sales/resales occured after 2008, there is more searchable data for it and yet there is not as many sales as BLT so it is easier to deal with.

According to the 2018 Condo Notice there were 17597 contracts for VGF outstanding.

According to county records, DVD has sold 18060 contracts as of 6/1/19.<snip>

<snip>On the contract level, it does say that of the more than 18000 contracts sold by DVD, about 5% have been resold in about 5 1/2 years,<snip>

Yes, he did state that it is "hard to draw short term conclusions about what will happen with DRR." However, I think it will be safe to estimate that given the stricter resale restrictions, the % resold in the same period of time will be < 5%.

 

[Madame]

I understand and agree with the point you are making. But unless the resale to direct ratios change for riviera, I don’t think it will make a significant impact. Maybe a small one with 10% of owners locked into Riviera, but it won’t be pandemonium.

Where are you getting the 10% figure? There are all kinds of unanswered questions surrounding the supposed research on one member here (I forget who, but I voiced my scepticism from the very start if you can find the thread) who supposedly debunked the 10 year sell-off assumption we were all working under. As time goes on, more owners will be resale.
ETA. Yes. I see you ARE basing your assumptions on that poster’s “research”. I wouldn’t

 

[Sandisw]

Where are you getting the 10% figure? There are all kinds of unanswered questions surrounding the supposed research on one member here (I forget who, but I voiced my scepticism from the very start if you can find the thread) who supposedly debunked the 10 year sell-off assumption we were all working under. As time goes on, more owners will be resale.
ETA. Yes. I see you ARE basing your assumptions on that poster’s “research”. I wouldn’t

But isn’t possible that the resale restriction will make the selling of those contracts more difficult? This is the complete unknown for the future.

Prior to Jan 2019, buying resale had the same trading power as buying direct. Now, L14 are somewhat restricted and a RIV is very restricted.

That, I would think, will make the RIV resale buyer fall into a much smaller pool of buyers...owners who just want it for staying there because it’s a great price or someone who doesn’t care that they are locked in.

IMOl I think it will take years to find out what or how that restriction plays a role.

In terms of rental income, resale owners will be the ones who might have a tougher times for bookings less than 11 months because they will be locked in to RIV.

 

[Madame]

But isn’t possible that the resale restriction will make the selling of those contracts more difficult? This is the complete unknown for the future.

Prior to Jan 2019, buying resale had the same trading power as buying direct. Now, L14 are somewhat restricted and a RIV is very restricted.

That, I would think, will make the RIV resale buyer fall into a much smaller pool of buyers...owners who just want it for staying there because it’s a great price or someone who doesn’t care that they are locked in.

IMOl I think it will take years to find out what or how that restriction plays a role.

In terms of rental income, resale owners will be the ones who might have a tougher times for bookings less than 11 months because they will be locked in to RIV.

If the economy tanks (I personally think we are there) people will sell even at a loss. = low price = many resalers.

 

[Sandisw]

If the economy tanks (I personally think we are there) people will sell even at a loss. = low price = many resalers.

Possible..but all speculation...no different than the data out there to suggest about 10% in resale owners..which I believe some have used actual data to support.

Honestly, only time will tell!

 

[Madame]

Possible..but all speculation...no different than the data out there to suggest about 10% in resale owners..which I believe some have used actual data to support.

Honestly, only time will tell!

Sure, but members here have poked holes in that data & the original poster has refused to elucidate, which totally nullifies the data for me personally. YMMV.

 

[RivShore]

But isn’t possible that the resale restriction will make the selling of those contracts more difficult? This is the complete unknown for the future

It would be great to have some additional data points on resales vs. total points but the data we do have from a few, shows pretty low turnover and that includes the Great Recession, which had a outsized impact on real estate like this. And I think your right, the resales could actually be less given the restrictions at RIV, so it could actually turn into a positive for owners who use it frequently with those who would have sold, hanging onto it and not using it as much. It's all wild speculation at this point with the possibility of both positive and negative results.

 

[anomamatt]

Where are you getting the 10% figure? There are all kinds of unanswered questions surrounding the supposed research on one member here (I forget who, but I voiced my scepticism from the very start if you can find the thread) who supposedly debunked the 10 year sell-off assumption we were all working under. As time goes on, more owners will be resale.
ETA. Yes. I see you ARE basing your assumptions on that poster’s “research”. I wouldn’t

https://www.disboards.com/threads/analysis-of-dvc-sales-resales-and-restrictions.3752766/
The issue people had was specific to how many original owners remain. Because the analysis doesn't account for ROFR'd contracts or foreclosures. But that is irrelevant here... any contracts Disney gets back are by definition going to be direct sales.

The fraction of resales was done correctly and no one had legitimate issues with (that I saw).

 

[Madame]

https://www.disboards.com/threads/analysis-of-dvc-sales-resales-and-restrictions.3752766/
The issue people had was specific to how many original owners remain. Because the analysis doesn't account for ROFR'd contracts or foreclosures. But that is irrelevant here... any contracts Disney gets back are by definition going to be direct sales.

The fraction of resales was done correctly and no one had legitimate issues with (that I saw).

You cannot claim only 10% of members do not keep their contract long term, and not include ROFRed and bankruptcy. For ME if the data are skewed in that area, then I simply cannot accept any of the conclusions. Again, YMMV.

 

[Sandisw]

You cannot claim only 10% of members do not keep their contract long term, and not include ROFRed and bankruptcy. For ME if the data are skewed in that area, then I simply cannot accept any of the conclusions. Again, YMMV.

The way I read it was that points that were Rofrd, etc, went back to Disney and therefore would not be part of the points in a resort that were resale points..which is why there were discounted

I see that thread as a way to get a general idea of points owned via the resale market and trying to make some generalizations. So any points that went back to Disney would now be direct points. Not how many owners were original owners, but maybe I misunderstood.

In terms of a RIV, if It follows the trend, restricted resale points within 5 years could pan out to be around 10%, give or take, of the overall points out there. However, given its restrictions, its either going to go way down in price and people will buy because it’s cheap, bucking the trend OR people wont be able to sell because they can’t.

Only time will tell!